Raiders offense

[Ray_T 589]

hey guys, I'm looking at the Raiders and thought I'd ask if anyone has the quick and dirty with respect to how camp has gone here.

I am expecting Ruggs will actually be draftable  and rostered this year and it is possible another person may emerge as fantasy worthy here.

Do any of the Raiders Homers have any input here?   It would be nice to have some info that hasnt been badly spun by the press

[weepaws 2,458]

I would hold of on Jacobs at his current ADP, and wait for Drake and his ADP. 

Waller isn’t worthy of where he’s is being drafted, but people keep taking him. 

Ruggs meh , I’m not so sure it, he just seems like the type that’s always going to disappoint. I would rather have C Davis or Gallup or M Jones at that same area. 

Carr is a qb2.  

I think to many people like Edwards I don’t know why. 

And im not sure what happen to J Brown.  

They might be the fourth best team in the AFC west, and that’s because they don’t have a fifth team. 

[Ray_T 589]

29 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Waller isn’t worthy of where he’s is being drafted, but people keep taking him. 

 

I know its tough with a TE.  in this case he looks like the top option in the passing game.  Not many TE's have that situation, so it does make him special in some respects.

hes put up numbers slightly below Kelce. (who I believe is also being drafted early)

I'm not commenting on the value of taking him other than this:

I'd rather have him in round 2 or 3 than Kelce in round 1.  on another thread I posted an analysis suggesting this.  what I have not done is posted an analysis on when Waller should be drafted. (which I think may be an important thing for those not wanting to pay the price for Kelce)

I will be doing my own analysis on this, but that wont likely be going into print here. (sorry)

[wolves111 69]

6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I know its tough with a TE.  in this case he looks like the top option in the passing game.  Not many TE's have that situation, so it does make him special in some respects.

hes put up numbers slightly below Kelce. (who I believe is also being drafted early)

I'm not commenting on the value of taking him other than this:

I'd rather have him in round 2 or 3 than Kelce in round 1.  on another thread I posted an analysis suggesting this.  what I have not done is posted an analysis on when Waller should be drafted. (which I think may be an important thing for those not wanting to pay the price for Kelce)

I will be doing my own analysis on this, but that wont likely be going into print here. (sorry)

I believe he was top three in receiving ff points last year. Possibly #2. That said I would expect defenses to key on him and with a very average qb like Carr, it could lessen his appeal. Been doing this since 1994, won my share of leagues, and have never taken a t/e in the first three rounds. It just dilutes your rb's and wr's.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

I wasn't trying to avoid raiders players this year, but I did not end up with any in a redraft league.

I have waller and Jacobs in dynasty and I was trying to sell high on waller but nobody was biting so I will ride him another year.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Ruggs had a top 24 wr season, I just like the guys around him better.

[robocardz 14]

Waller has gone late 2nd rd or early 3rd rd in the 4 drafts I have had so far.   To me, that's waaaaay too high.

 

Higbee / Jonnu / Gisecki etc have been around in rounds 9 -15 -- I just don't see it that early for Waller.   Only person I would consider at ADP would be Edwards as mentioned above.

[Ray_T 589]

ok just read a camp report.  apparently the Raiders Defense has looked especially good this year.

another player who has impressed has apparently been Hunter Renfrow.   word is... he was regularly beating Ramsey in joint practices with the rams.   apparently this hasnt surprised raiders insiders as hes (apparently) had a fantastic camp.

I wouldnt go out drafting him based on this info alone, but I would mark him as a player to watch in week 1 and maybe look at grabbing him as a priority free agent if he shows coming out of the gate.

[weepaws 2,458]

The reports about all the Raiders wr is positive, so someone’s not telling the truth. 

Also Drake is going to play in the passing game a lot. 

I don’t see any of the Raiders wr worthy of anything higher then a wr4.  

 

[Ray_T 589]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

The reports about all the Raiders wr is positive, so someone’s not telling the truth. 

Also Drake is going to play in the passing game a lot. 

I don’t see any of the Raiders wr worthy of anything higher then a wr4.  

 

fair comments on the reports.

Based on current projections you are correct.  none of the WRs are projected to be better than a WR4.

and that is the way you should rank and draft them.

but I do think one of the WR's will be better than a WR4 this year(assuming 12 team league)

I think the best odds would be Ruggs.  but all 3 starters have a shot at it.  we just dont know which it will be.

Like I said on another thread... Waller cant catch all the passes.  someone else has to step up.

as 2 of the 3 starters this year were rookies last year, there is an awful lot of growing on this offense that can happen this year.  I still think someone will surprise us.

Thats the main reason I created the thread.   I'm hoping some Raiders homers who know more will step up and talk.   no luck so far.

 

[AxeElf 787]

12 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I'm hoping some Raiders homers who know more will step up and talk.   no luck so far.

The whole homer thing is kind of outdated now; we all have access to the exact same information as everyone else.  At least in terms of axual NEWS.  How the pay-to-play "experts" spin the news is still something they get people to pay for--but everything written by every beat writer across the league is a Google search away.

So eh, we all seem to be on the same page here.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

On 8/26/2021 at 8:44 AM, wolves111 said:

 Been doing this since 1994, won my share of leagues, and have never taken a t/e in the first three rounds. It just dilutes your rb's and wr's.

The problem here is that Kelce might be the greatest fantasy TE of all time so comparing him to any TE in the history of ever isn't really fair to Kelce. his 2018 and 2020 seasons have to be the 2 best fantasy seasons by a TE ever I would assume (PPR). I'm sure Weepaws can confirm or deny that. In 2019 he slumped to the tune of 97-1229-5TD when Mahomes was hurt lol. If you think Gonzalez, Gates, Gronk or even Witten are better then you might wanna revisit the stats.

 

Having such concrete rules on yourself seems silly when you're witnessing something from the position that we've never seen before. 

 

And he never misses time. Not sure there's a safer late 1st round pick than Kelce.

[wolves111 69]

2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

The problem here is that Kelce might be the greatest fantasy TE of all time so comparing him to any TE in the history of ever isn't really fair to Kelce. his 2018 and 2020 seasons have to be the 2 best fantasy seasons by a TE ever I would assume (PPR). I'm sure Weepaws can confirm or deny that. In 2019 he slumped to the tune of 97-1229-5TD when Mahomes was hurt lol. If you think Gonzalez, Gates, Gronk or even Witten are better then you might wanna revisit the stats.

 

Having such concrete rules on yourself seems silly when you're witnessing something from the position that we've never seen before. 

 

And he never misses time. Not sure there's a safer late 1st round pick than Kelce.

He'll be 32 in October. I think your paying a premium for past performance. Yeah he's an all time great t/e. No argument there. But I'm not betting a #1 pick on him at 32 to put up the same numbers.

Just my opinion.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

10 hours ago, wolves111 said:

He'll be 32 in October. I think your paying a premium for past performance. Yeah he's an all time great t/e. No argument there. But I'm not betting a #1 pick on him at 32 to put up the same numbers.

Just my opinion.

His age has nothing to do with your previous statement. Why didn’t you draft Kelce last 3 seasons?

 

He’s shown no signs of slowing down so you’re just going a hunch / gut feeling.

[Ray_T 589]

7 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

His age has nothing to do with your previous statement. Why didn’t you draft Kelce last 3 seasons?

 

He’s shown no signs of slowing down so you’re just going a hunch / gut feeling.

dude is right to point out his  age.

problem with guys  like this  is you dont see the slowdown until it arrives most times.    Hes well within his rights to discount for age.

in one of my leagues I dumped  Kelce because  I was  able to get Waller who produces almost as much without the age  risk factor.  I get where hes coming from.   I still think he has at least one more good year before the decline hits.   in the playoffs  he looked as good as ever.

bottom line, this is one of those comfort picks.  if his age makes you uncomfortable, pick Waller or someone else.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

dude is right to point out his  age.

problem with guys  like this  is you dont see the slowdown until it arrives most times.    Hes well within his rights to discount for age.

in one of my leagues I dumped  Kelce because  I was  able to get Waller who produces almost as much without the age  risk factor.  I get where hes coming from.   I still think he has at least one more good year before the decline hits.   in the playoffs  he looked as good as ever.

bottom line, this is one of those comfort picks.  if his age makes you uncomfortable, pick Waller or someone else.

I think you’re vastly over estimating one and undervaluing the other. We’ve had this same conversation with Kittle and Kelce the last few seasons. Now you’re just replacing Kittle with Waller.
 

The most important thing is that one plays with Mahomes and the other plays with Derek Carr. 
 

I think you’re splitting hairs with age. Waller is only 3 years younger. 
 

Finally, IMO Kelce’s numbers are so great that even with a significant decline, odds are he finishes top 3 in TE scoring.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Kelce has a finesse to his game that I can see aging well. He doesn’t rely on freakish athleticism the way Waller does. 
 

If his age 31 season is any indication of slowing down I simply don’t see it.

[wolves111 69]

38 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Kelce has a finesse to his game that I can see aging well. He doesn’t rely on freakish athleticism the way Waller does. 
 

If his age 31 season is any indication of slowing down I simply don’t see it.

If he was a commodity (stock) you would be buying at the highest valuation. Your investing a significant amount of capital (#1 pick)which then limits what and how much you can invest in other stocks (rb's, wr's).

Passing on a #1 rb or wr for a t/e then devalues the rb/wr you draft. You're left with #2 players vs your opponents #1 players. Is the t/e position that critical? If you say yes then have at it. 

[The Postman 3]

Just what would Waller have to do to warrant his current adp?  I believe he will be the top TE in 2021.  His floor is basically a lock and his ceiling definitely warrants his current adp in my opinion.  I am drafting him early 3rd whenever I get the chance.

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, The Postman said:

Just what would Waller have to do to warrant his current adp?

He would have to do enough to make up for all the points you're losing at RB2-WR2-WR3-Flex to justify his addition.

In other words, about 1500 yards and 17 TDs should do it.

[The Postman 3]

8 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

He would have to do enough to make up for all the points you're losing at RB2-WR2-WR3-Flex to justify his addition.

In other words, about 1500 yards and 17 TDs should do it.

I play in a 14 team half point ppr.  No way in most cases that you will get that type of production from any player in the 3rd round.  I will continue to target Waller there and expect him to easily top 1100 yds and 8-10 TDs.

His yards and TDs were top 10 among all WRs and TEs last year.  Again I ask, where will find that anywhere from pick 25 forward?  Let me help you, most likely you won't.  You also failed to take into account the huge drop off from his TE numbers to another if you wait to draft a TE late.  

[AxeElf 787]

19 minutes ago, The Postman said:

I will continue to target Waller there and expect him to easily top 1100 yds and 8-10 TDs.

Let me be the first to extend my condolences for your disappointment, given that Waller has never scored 10 TDs in his career--and the Raiders are hoping to develop a little more of a passing game outside of Waller this season.  You're just as likely to get his 3 TDs from 2019 as you are his 9 TDs from 2020.  And in a 14 team league, the damage you are doing to your RB2, WR2 and WR3 positions by picking a TE in the 3rd are even more dramatic.

23 minutes ago, The Postman said:

You also failed to take into account the huge drop off from his TE numbers to another if you wait to draft a TE late.  

You're failing to take into account the dropoff from a 3rd round WR to a 4th round WR, a 4th round RB to a 5th round RB, and a 5th round WR to a 6th round WR, especially in a 14 team league--which is the price you're paying to gain 6 points per week at TE.

Finish this sentence:  The top 5 TEs in PPR points per game in 2020 were Kelce, Waller, Kittle, Andrews and _____________.

(C.J. Uzomah--I'll wait on my TE, thanks.)

[weepaws 2,458]

Waller third round pick in a 14 team league, your  just giving up to much strength else where , hard to trust he’ll produce like he did last season , I think 2019 but a little less yardage is what I think he’ll produce this season. 

Thanks. 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

He would have to do enough to make up for all the points you're losing at RB2-WR2-WR3-Flex to justify his addition.

In other words, about 1500 yards and 17 TDs should do it.

The WR position is extremely deep this season. The gap between WRs in rounds 3 and 4 is tiny. The gap between Kelce and Waller and the other TEs is huge.

[weepaws 2,458]

Yeah but taking Waller in the third is really great if he repeats or close to last season. .

if he slips a couple of points per game , then it wasn’t. 

I’d rather go wr or rb that early.  

Get a te in the double digits.  

[tanatastic 2,061]

I have drake stashed but not expecting a lot unless jacobs gets hurt.

[weepaws 2,458]

Oh I expect a lot out of Drake even without an injury to Jacob. 

He’s going to get rb3 upside work even if Jacob is on the field.