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Skibum - Axe Elf bet

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10 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Terrible bet!!

I would take Robby Anderson Hands down!!

Well in that case it's a GOOD bet (if you're Axe Elf).

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2 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Robbie Anderson is killing it tonight like he always does. 

I thought he took the moral high road by not taking advantage of Brown's illness just to win $50.

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Now that they've lost M&M, though, they might be leaving Robby no choice but to go off for a few weeks.

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11 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I thought he took the moral high road by not taking advantage of Brown's illness just to win $50.

Robbie doesn't wanna be fed... Robbie wants to hunt!

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At the 1/4 mark we have:

Antonio Brown ranked at WR 54 with 39.7 fantasy points

Robby Anderson ranked WR 70 with 31.2 fantasy points

 

The situation is very ugly and it is still anyone's race, however with Gronk out that can only help.

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2 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

The situation is very ugly

I think this sums it up nicely.  It's probly safe to say that neither player is meeting either participant's expectations for him.

I'm not sure what the Panthers were thinking when they signed Robby to a two-year contract extension on August 24 for almost $30 million, with more than $20 million guaranteed--and then gave him 11 targets through the first three games.  They don't seem to be interested in getting their money's worth out of him--but on the bright side, he did double his previous target total for the season in Week 4, so maybe things are looking up.

Darnold, though, remains a retard, so there's also hope that AB can stave off the crazy long enough to take home the prize for MTSkibum.

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After week five.

AB- 20 catches, 325 yards, 3 TDs.  (69pts)

Callaway- 13 catches, 222 yards, 3 TD’s (51pts)

Myers- 32 catches, 302 yards, 0 TD (60pts)

AND Bringing in the rear.

Anderson- 12 catches, 179 yards, one TD (33pts)

 

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2 hours ago, killerpopcorn said:

I think Axe was betting more on a mental breakdown from AB to take the jackpot.

No, Axe Elf was betting on the Panthers being a rational lot, and assuming that they wouldn't sign Anderson to a new $30M contract extension on August 24 if they were planning on only targeting him twice per game.

Turns out Axe Elf overestimated their capacity for rational thought, but then, Axe Elf has never been held responsible for coaching/administrative bumbles that affect player performance.  Axe Elf always assumes full competence from professional teams in making player projections.

But yeah, it's starting to look like an AB crazy episode is going to be the only way to overcome the Panthers' crazy Anderson management.

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AB is tearing it up….. I would definitely move up Skibum on knowledge.

Nice pick this year.  Props.

 

The other guy, well chalk up another poor prediction. 

  • Thanks 1

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9 minutes ago, justforbeer said:

AB is tearing it up….. I would definitely move up Skibum on knowledge.

Nice pick this year.  Props.

 

The other guy, well chalk up another poor prediction. 

Poor prediction along with bullsh!t excuses 

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I don't think the bet was all that outrageous at the time.  If you take Brown's 8 game performance and pro rate that to 17 games, you're looking at a 95 / 1026 / 9 season for Brown.  That's in-line with Anderson's 95 / 1096 / 3 season last year.  Brown is currently on pace for a 93 / 1338 / 13 season.  I don't see that happening, but I can see 97 / 1150 / 9.  It's clear now that Anderson won't sniff that.

I'm pretty surprised myself at Anderson's output.  Last year he had 136 targets and right now, he's on pace for only 98.  I don't know why they're not throwing to him.  Last year he averaged 1.64 fantasy points per target and this year it's at 1.24, so even when he's getting targets, he's 25% less effective.  It's clear that Darnold favors Moore, but I'm not sure why it's that vastly different.  Last year, Moore averaged 7.9 targets per game and this year he's at 10, a 21% increase.  His points per target is up from 1.77 to 1.94.  It's odd because you'd think that Bridewater and Moore would connect better than that Darnold and Moore... conversely, you'd think that Darnold and Anderson would connect better than Darnold and Moore.

Elf should see if Skibum would take a buy out, because his only hope of winning this bet, is a Brown injury.

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Not surprised at all about Anderson’s output, you can find that on my preseason posts.  

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Brown is currently on pace for a 93 / 1338 / 13 season.

 

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Elf should see if Skibum would take a buy out, because his only hope of winning this bet, is a Brown injury.

As you pointed out, Brown is currently having a monster season--your projection would make him top five-ish; he could end up top tennish, anyway.  And if he ends up anywhere in the top 15, he's going to end up better than I had projected Anderson anyway--I had him as a top 20ish finisher.

So if Brown continues to kill it, I'm happy to pay off the full bet because I wouldn't have won it even if I was right about Anderson.

And besides, there's still ten weeks of potential crazy to go...

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Robby Anderson will be man to man against the worst corner in the NFL this week. 

 

It he doesn't do anything this week I will have this wrapped up.

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2 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

It he doesn't do anything this week I will have this wrapped up.

I'm probly gonna hafta start him in a few leagues due to byes and Golladay being hurt, so it would be a good time to catch up a little.

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On 10/15/2021 at 6:41 PM, AxeElf said:

I'm probly gonna hafta start him in a few leagues due to byes and Golladay being hurt, so it would be a good time to catch up a little.

Ouch

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Now that AB is out for a significant time, Robby has a shot at this thing.

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21 hours ago, nobody said:

Now that AB is out for a significant time, Robby has a shot at this thing.

That's his only shot.

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Anderson puts up a goose egg in week eight. At this point you’re pretty much have to say he is one of the biggest disappointments this year. Heck of a pick!

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32 minutes ago, justforbeer said:

Anderson puts up a goose egg in week eight. At this point you’re pretty much have to say he is one of the biggest disappointments this year. Heck of a pick!

I think Aiyuk is the biggest, but Anderson is certainly up there.

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13 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Aiyuk is the biggest, but Anderson is certainly up there.

Calvin Ridley would like a word with you guys.

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7 minutes ago, nobody said:

Calvin Ridley would like a word with you guys.

No, I don't think so.  He's had some respectable games.  He missed one for an an injury and another for, whatever reason, but in the 5 he's played, he's averaging 14 ppg.  If my low end RB1 is averaging 14 ppg, I'm not thrilled, but I'm "ok" with it... but if my high end WR2 (shot at low end WR1 - Aiyuk), is averaging 5.1 ppg, I'm NOT ok with that in any way.

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Antonio brown has been solid when he has played. I wish he was available for more games, but he is still a net benefit for my team. He was taken as my wr 4, however in ppg he is a wr 1/2. 

 

Hopefully, he can return next week.

So far he is definitely the better pick over Anderson.

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A Brown over Anderson was an easy pick.  

I think Ridley gets my vote bigger bust, he’s avg four points less per game ppr and non.  

 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

No, I don't think so.  He's had some respectable games.  He missed one for an an injury and another for, whatever reason, but in the 5 he's played, he's averaging 14 ppg.  If my low end RB1 is averaging 14 ppg, I'm not thrilled, but I'm "ok" with it... but if my high end WR2 (shot at low end WR1 - Aiyuk), is averaging 5.1 ppg, I'm NOT ok with that in any way.

Ridley was taken in the 2nd and just quit because he's sad or something.

Aiyuk was taken in the 6th.  It's not like Aiyuk was going to make or break a team.

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18 minutes ago, nobody said:

Ridley was taken in the 2nd and just quit because he's sad or something.

Aiyuk was taken in the 6th.  It's not like Aiyuk was going to make or break a team.

We don't know how many games he's going to miss.  Sunday may be the only one.  Aiyuk's ADP, if I recall was mid/late 4th rd, not 6th.  In my 3 re-draft leagues, Ridley was taken at the end of the 2nd round and Aiyuk 2 rounds later, at the end of the 4th... I believe in one league, he was actually 5.01.  In any case, Ridley was still drafted as a mid/low WR1 and Aiyuk as a mid WR2.  As I said above, if I except 17 points from my WR1 and get 14, I'm not thrilled with it, but I can live with him as at least a WR2.  If I draft a WR2 and I can't even start him, and in fact cut him, that's a much bigger problem.

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Neither one of us deserve to "win" this bet.  Maybe both of us should just donate $50 to the Retarded NFL Coaches and Players Association.

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10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Neither one of us deserve to "win" this bet.  Maybe both of us should just donate $50 to the Retarded NFL Coaches and Players Association.

Sorry but you lost, eat it!

in fact, your player is so bad this year it should be in the record books.

AB was a beast when he played…..also Jakobi and Callaway are better than your pick too.

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3 hours ago, justforbeer said:

Sorry but you lost, eat it!

Perhaps you are unaware of the parameters of the bet.

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I should get a couple more weeks of production out of Antonio brown, but that is not a given.

 

I think it is 50/50 on who wins the bet. Thankfully Robby sure does suck. AB only needed a few weeks of play time to equal his entire season.

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In my league, Brown has 95.4 points and Anderson has 76.1.  At 19.7 points, the gap is close enough to call it anyone's game.  With Anderson averaging a whopping 6.3 points per game, it looks like Brown may only need to play game to lock him out.

You know you suck when a guy needs only 6 games to outscore you in 17.

 

To note, I know it's not Anderson's fault... the Carolina situation is a sh!tshow.

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Carolina fired their OC supposedly because they weren't running the ball enough.  Might get worse for Robby unless they're planning to get him involved in some play action.

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Darnold just isn’t good, and they were better with Bridgewater. 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Darnold just isn’t good, and they were better with Bridgewater. 

And both are better than an old, washed up Cam Newton

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Wait a second.

Just because there was no injury clause in your bet, To even think that the choice of Robbie Anderson was a good one is the more obvious issue here.

Not only did you preach about how great the guy was and how great he was going to do and he was the steal of the draft essentially, he ended up being one of the biggest busts of the year. It wasn’t just quarterback play, Anderson may have the most drops of any wide receiver this year. He was horrible!  He currently leads the league with seven, and I feel like there were more than that.  You need to own that, or nobody will respect you here.

If somehow Anderson outscores Antonio Brown because AB only played six games, well That may be the epitome of your character in this forum as you consider it a “win”.

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