Is Barkley a 1st Rounder? Not in 2021

[Cyclone2016 2]

Imagine this is your actual draft in a money league.  The top 5 RB's get drafted, and you are on the clock at #6.  Will you draft Barkley?  Haaaaail no!!!   Given his uncertain recovery status, I might (reluctantly) draft him in the second round.  I'm amazed that so many FFL "experts" have Barkely ranked as a mid-first round pick...seemingly based on how he did 2 years ago.  I know he is a top RB when healthy.  But he's not.  What am I missing? 

[polecatt 313]

It's his upside. 

I'm like you though, I would pick somebody else in the top 5.

It's still not a sure thing he plays week 1. For me to feel good about him all season with that knee, he would have to be playing as normal, as if it didn't happen.

Still making progess, two weeks or so before the season starts. I don't like that.

[jrokh 507]

Definitely risky, but the payoff could be huge. He returned to practice today and looked good according to Beat Reporters.

[weepaws 1,797]

No he’s not worthy of a first round pick, but I know he’ll go in the first round, and that’s good news for me.  

[Ray_T 446]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No he’s not worthy of a first round pick, but I know he’ll go in the first round, and that’s good news for me.  

in redraft this is likely the case.  especially now that it looks like he may miss week 1 and possibly week 2 (or at the least have a reduced workload early in the season)

in a keeper league that's a different matter.  You are buying in round 1 for what hes gonna do in future years.

if hes a first round value in redraft, it is very late first round.  and I'm  not even convinced of that.  Hes likely a second round pick in redraft if you want to take the injury into account.

fully healthy hes easily a first rounder, but that is not the case.  Not this year anyways.

[jrokh 507]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

especially now that it looks like he may miss week 1 and possibly week 2 (or at the least have a reduced workload early in the season)

Huh? Where did you get that from? If anything he is more likely to suit up week 1 than not.

[Ray_T 446]

I read somewhere that its not a given he will start week 1.

I also read they are likely to ease him into the lineup.

I dont have links (sorry) but I assure you I read that in various places.

That being said, the situation could well have changed since then.  if that is the case, post a link.   but in my mind, there is enough risk  associated with the injury that in redraft his value ranges from #10 overall to #15.  that places him at the bottom of round 1 or the top of round 2.

I truly hope I'm wrong.  I have him and Dalvin Cook as keepers in my one league.   so if he returns to top 5 form I really like my chances of winning this year.

[jrokh 507]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

I read somewhere that its not a given he will start week 1.

I also read they are likely to ease him into the lineup.

I dont have links (sorry) but I assure you I read that in various places.

That being said, the situation could well have changed since then.  if that is the case, post a link.   but in my mind, there is enough risk  associated with the injury that in redraft his value ranges from #10 overall to #15.  that places him at the bottom of round 1 or the top of round 2.

I truly hope I'm wrong.  I have him and Dalvin Cook as keepers in my one league.   so if he returns to top 5 form I really like my chances of winning this year.

This just one beat writer from today, but they all say similar things.

 

 

[Ray_T 446]

yeah I just looked and found the same quote. you beat me to it.

either way, first practice with no contact jersey 10 days prior to season start is by no means a guarantee he starts week 1.

I'm encouraged.   but also would not be surprised if he split carries in week 1.

 

[jrokh 507]

Definitely possible, but the arrow is pointing up for game 1 availability. The bigger issue to me is will he stay healthy. Still if you are a risk taker he could be the play…

[Ray_T 446]

Just now, jrokh said:

Definitely possible, but the arrow is pointing up for game 1 availability. The bigger issue to me is will he stay healthy. Still if you are a risk taker he could be the play…

I think there is a fair chance he dresses.

but I also think there is a fair chance that the coach limits his reps in week 1.

possibly week 2 as well.

to me this is likely enough to knock him out of the top 10.   After that its about how much risk you are willing to accept.

most people can return 12 months after ACL surgery, but dont regain full pre injury form until at least 18 months after.   sure there are cases where its happened sooner (ADP) but hes the exception and seems to have been a bit of a freak of nature on that front.

if you wanna overpay and draft him top 8, go ahead, but I'd recommend you get a higher calibre backup than you normally get to make up for the additional risk taken here.

[jrokh 507]

I’m not likely to draft him, but I have him in my top ten, and limited reps in a game or 2, possibly, wouldn’t change my ranking. 

[AxeElf 755]

At #6 I'm taking Aaron Jones (assuming decorum holds through the first five), but it's not crazy to take Barkley in the first, especially in 12+ team leagues.

He might have two weak games to start the season?  That pretty much describes any player at any point during the season.  Barkley's still an elite talent, but as with Cook and anyone else, you assume the injury risk.

I'm taking Barkley before Taylor, that's for sure.

[weepaws 1,797]

At #6 no I’m not taking him. 

[TBayXXXVII 1,761]

16 hours ago, Cyclone2016 said:

Imagine this is your actual draft in a money league.  The top 5 RB's get drafted, and you are on the clock at #6.  Will you draft Barkley?  Haaaaail no!!!   Given his uncertain recovery status, I might (reluctantly) draft him in the second round.  I'm amazed that so many FFL "experts" have Barkely ranked as a mid-first round pick...seemingly based on how he did 2 years ago.  I know he is a top RB when healthy.  But he's not.  What am I missing? 

Top 5?  No.  Between 8 and 12?  Yup.

[Ray_T 446]

37 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Top 5?  No.  Between 8 and 12?  Yup.

I had him between 10 and 15 but depending on who is left I could see myself taking him at 9 or possibly 8  depending on how the draft goes.

I think the sweet spot is at the end of round 1.  if he slips to you in round 2 for any reason, you take him right away.

[TBayXXXVII 1,761]

6 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I had him between 10 and 15 but depending on who is left I could see myself taking him at 9 or possibly 8  depending on how the draft goes.

I think the sweet spot is at the end of round 1.  if he slips to you in round 2 for any reason, you take him right away.

I think that's a rather sound opinion.

[weepaws 1,797]

I’ve had opportunities in mocks to take him late in the first round , I took Hill, and Or Adams or even Chubb instead, I just don’t have time to wait for him to get healthy and be the great player he can be.  

Unlike the elf’s leagues that let every team make in into the playoffs, our 14 team league only four make it.  

 

[tanatastic 2,061]

The pendulum could shift very suddenly if he’s good to go. I’ve been saying all off-season it makes no sense that he would not be right for a year but suddenly the exact week 1 and 2 will be the time he needs to get healthy. Makes no sense. He’s either gonna be all the way right or very suspect to start. Closer we get with better news the more I lean towards good to go. If so, people who get him round 2 and pair him with a 1st rounder who plays up to his spot will have a leg up on the competition.

[Ray_T 446]

5 hours ago, tanatastic said:

The pendulum could shift very suddenly if he’s good to go. I’ve been saying all off-season it makes no sense that he would not be right for a year but suddenly the exact week 1 and 2 will be the time he needs to get healthy. Makes no sense. He’s either gonna be all the way right or very suspect to start. Closer we get with better news the more I lean towards good to go. If so, people who get him round 2 and pair him with a 1st rounder who plays up to his spot will have a leg up on the competition.

Fair comments.

just extra info for those of you who care.

usually coming back from an ACL the first thing the player gets back is the straight line speed.

one of the last things that comes back is the ability to make a quick, crisp cut.

a good O/Coordinator can likely call plays that dont require a hard cut on the bad knee.   Sometimes its unavoidable when the play breaks down but that's football.  he has to keep testing it until hes able to do it.

so its not all doom and gloom.   but the fact that we are at 11 months from the date of the injury and hes still got the red Jersey makes me think the first couple games may be rough even if he plays.

make no mistake, the upside is there, and even if it takes a while to get everything back he still easily puts up RB2 numbers without a full workload. 

If you are really worried about it, there are likely players you can get who are expected to get a couple starts early in the year before getting replaced.  you can pick those guys late and start them while waiting for Sequon to get to where he needs to be.
 

 

 

[weepaws 1,797]

There is no way in a redraft I’ll get him, I’ll take him in the second round, I pick 11th out of 14 teams, so he won’t make it back to me.  

Just can’t trust the situation. 

[Ray_T 446]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

There is no way in a redraft I’ll get him, I’ll take him in the second round, I pick 11th out of 14 teams, so he won’t make it back to me.  

Just can’t trust the situation. 

he shouldnt make it back.

while I think he brings value at 11.  I get where you are coming from.  some people dont like risk in a first round pick.

and I think you are right.  if you pass on him at 11 I would be seriously surprised if he dropped to you at 18 but I have actually seen stranger things happen.

good luck

[weepaws 1,797]

Thanks Ray, and I agree one never knows. 

But if I had the 14 pick in the draft and he’s there I would take him, one advantage of that last pick in the first round , and first in the second. 

[tanatastic 2,061]

17 hours ago, Ray_T said:

he shouldnt make it back.

while I think he brings value at 11.  I get where you are coming from.  some people dont like risk in a first round pick.

and I think you are right.  if you pass on him at 11 I would be seriously surprised if he dropped to you at 18 but I have actually seen stranger things happen.

good luck

To play advocate, almost all the “safe” picks last year busted in rnd 1 while I was laughed at for taking Dalvin at 5 because he was risky (picks 1-4 ended up busts). The whole concept of safety is mostly an illusion to me really and I’m trying to think more in terms of upside or less upside.

[gcmmidwest 86]

Barkley will be the best back in the league heard it here 1st break out year 

[AxeElf 755]

13 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

Barkley will be the best back in the league heard it here 1st break out year 

Sorry you missed it, but Barkley's breakout season was in 2018, when he had over 2000 yards from scrimmage and 15 TDs.

[GobbleDog 618]

If Barkley was healthy and played for the Kansas City Chiefs... 1st rounder.

He's not healthy AND plays for the pathetic Giants.... 2nd rounder at best.

[gcmmidwest 86]

6 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

If Barkley was healthy and played for the Kansas City Chiefs... 1st rounder.

He's not healthy AND plays for the pathetic Giants.... 2nd rounder at best.

Giants are better than the panthers and cmc is a #1 pick 

[weepaws 1,797]

2 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Giants are better than the panthers and cmc is a #1 pick 

That’s very questionable. 

[GobbleDog 618]

3 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Giants are better than the panthers and cmc is a #1 pick 

Not according to Vegas. Over/under wins...

Panthers 7.5

Giants 7

Besides, McCaffrey is healthy and has multiple seasons of monster stats. Not so much Barkley.

[jrokh 507]

43 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Panthers 7.5

Giants 7

Besides, McCaffrey is healthy and has multiple seasons of monster stats. Not so much Barkley.

wow take the Giants and the over at 7. They are in the NFC East.

[Utilit99 4,097]

Giants were in the NFC East  last year and the year before that, and the year before that, and the year before that. How many wins in each of those years?

[jrokh 507]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Giants were in the NFC East  last year and the year before that, and the year before that, and the year before that. How many wins in each of those years?

Smart bettors recognize when a trend changes BEFORE it happens. Like everyone who took the over on Cleveland last year. Still it’s great to have you back Seafoam. You were missed!

[eagerowl 2]

I had the 10th pick in a 12-teamer...took Chubb in the first and Barkley made it back in the second.  Felt good man.

[kilroy69 856]

He went in the first in my 100 dollar buy in league. 12 man. At no point would I take him in the first. 2nd maybe but still you are taking huge risk on someone who is coming back from injury to a terrible line that helped him run for 1.4 ypc before he got injured last year. He has not even started contact drills yet. 

[jrokh 507]

22 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

He went in the first in my 100 dollar buy in league. 12 man. At no point would I take him in the first. 2nd maybe but still you are taking huge risk on someone who is coming back from injury to a terrible line that helped him run for 1.4 ypc before he got injured last year. He has not even started contact drills yet. 

The terrible line somehow managed to allow wayne gallman to average 4.6 yards per carry on an 147 attempt sample size. It's the pass blocking that is terrible, Barkley should be fine as long as he's healthy.

[weepaws 1,797]

2 hours ago, eagerowl said:

I had the 10th pick in a 12-teamer...took Chubb in the first and Barkley made it back in the second.  Felt good man.

Congrats 

[AxeElf 755]

2 hours ago, eagerowl said:

I had the 10th pick in a 12-teamer...took Chubb in the first and Barkley made it back in the second.  Felt good man.

Sure, although realistically, had you drafted each of them based on their performance this season, and not on their ADP, you would have drafted them each in the opposite rounds--Barkley in the first, as the RB1 he will be, and Chubb in the 2nd, as the RB2 he will be.

You just got the order mixed up, but all's well that ends well.

[TBayXXXVII 1,761]

On 8/29/2021 at 6:02 PM, GobbleDog said:

Not according to Vegas. Over/under wins...

Panthers 7.5

Giants 7

Besides, McCaffrey is healthy and has multiple seasons of monster stats. Not so much Barkley.

I'd take the over with the Giants and be a little cautious as I think they'll be a 7 to 9 win team.  I'd take the under with the Panthers and start spending my winnings the day after placing the bet.

[Mike FF Today 533]