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bobby heenan

UPDATE: J.K. Dobbins - Knee injury

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let me preface this by saying im neither a ravens nor an ohio state fan...in fact im a patriots and notre dame fan......but i love dobbins...so much that last year i reached for him in a high stakes league when i think i probably could have had him at least a round or 2 later....i just love the talent....and i still do

this year im seeing a late 2nd/early 3rd price tag on him.....now im aware that once you start grabbing rbs around this stage there arent many guarantees......i really want to believe in dobbins here....but i just cant......there is the potential the switch goes off and you see 230 carries for dobbins.....but i couldnt bet on that...i cant bet on harbaugh....im covinced harbaugh loves the dobbins/edwards combo and of course edwards is no slouch at all.....harbaugh is just such a strange guy to gauge sometimes too imo.....so while i could totally see more touches this year for dobbins i could equally see about the same.....

what are your thoughts on dobbins and this situation? i just love the talent and if he were guaranteed 220+ carries hes an easy first rounder.....does anyone think he can actually get that this year? i know all about roman and how much the ravens love to run....i just think they love the two back system and you might be better off with an AJ brown(who i also think could actually blow TF up) or even a lamb at that point......what do u guys think?

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I think his upside is gonna be basically the season Mark Ingram had in 2019 where he had over 1,000 yards and scored 15 TDs.

Now, do I think he will do that or come close?  I seriously doubt it unless they have injuries to other RBs.

I think he can get kind of close though. Maybe only 8-10 TDs though

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Yeah, you're basically correct.  Dobbins is being overdrafted for a back in a 3-way committee headed by his QB, and a stud like Lamb or even Brown should be taken a couple of rounds before Dobbins.

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I'm not considering him unless he falls in my draft.  Too much doubt and history with that team at RB.

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I’m not targeting a running back who’s QB is a lock for 1k on the ground and prob 10+td.

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I’ve said it before, Edwards is going to compete with him often , Jackson is the Ravens best short yardage rb.  

Mmm I think he’s going to high. I’ll take him,if he was to drop a few rounds later then his current adp. . 

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Way too high. Jackson and Edwards would both need to get hurt, and then the offense would need to not suck too much for Dobbins to have scoring chances. There are plenty of other plays way safer for the price tag

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I'm in on Dobbins.  He's way too talented to be underused.  The Ravens hoped he would be the guy they could run to reduce Jackson's exposure and now they've found out that he's "that guy".  I expect Jackson to have very few called runs this year.  Edwards' role isn't going to change... he is what he is.  I expect Dobbins to assume about 85% of Ingram's workload and about 80% of Jackson's (designed rushing), workload.  I'm thinking about 16+ touches a game.

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He’s going to go early in my draft this weekend, 14 team non ppr.  

Just did two non ppr 14 team drafts, and he’s going late 2nd in those. 

Can’t speak against anyone taking him, I hope that works out for those that do, except for the ff owner in my league.  

 

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11 hours ago, tanatastic said:

I’m not targeting a running back who’s QB is a lock for 1k on the ground and prob 10+td.

2004 and 2006 - Warrick Dunn

2014 - Marshawn Lynch

2015 - Jonathan Stewart

2020 - Kenyan Drake

 

Not sure if you're aware but there's plenty of examples of successful RBs with dual threat/run first QBs. The only thing that matters is volume. Weeks 15 and 16 last season Dobbins and Gus Edwards combined for over 20 carries. If Dobbins can steal a few more of those touches away from Edwards I think that will be enough. 

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11 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm in on Dobbins.  He's way too talented to be underused.  The Ravens hoped he would be the guy they could run to reduce Jackson's exposure and now they've found out that he's "that guy".  I expect Jackson to have very few called runs this year.  Edwards' role isn't going to change... he is what he is.  I expect Dobbins to assume about 85% of Ingram's workload and about 80% of Jackson's (designed rushing), workload.  I'm thinking about 16+ touches a game.

well, I think with less RB's in the room his carries will go up.

the question I have is by how much?

fftoday is predicting just under 1000 yards rushing and around 1100-1200 total yards.

I think its not a bad projection if you feel his workload increases even nominally.

the other question I have is can he keep the YPC at the same level?

hes ranked just ahead of Mike Davis in Atlanta.   I think hes more talented, but Davis has the guaranteed workload as a #1.

I'd argue Davis is the better value with less risk. (no timeshare)

either way, its clear hes a low end RB2 with some upside.  If Gus Edwards gets hurt, the upside could be considerable.    Thats how you should draft him.  

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Good point Ray, I think his 6 yards per carry is something to wonder about, hard to see him having that high of a per rush avg.  

 

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

2004 and 2006 - Warrick Dunn

2014 - Marshawn Lynch

2015 - Jonathan Stewart

2020 - Kenyan Drake

 

Not sure if you're aware but there's plenty of examples of successful RBs with dual threat/run first QBs. The only thing that matters is volume. Weeks 15 and 16 last season Dobbins and Gus Edwards combined for over 20 carries. If Dobbins can steal a few more of those touches away from Edwards I think that will be enough. 

Lamar is the best running threat in QB history arguably and that ultimately caps Dobbins upside. Doesn’t mean I dont think he can live up to his adp but I think it makes it hard to outplay it. I want guys with the upside to explode and vastly outplay their adp. 

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14 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Lamar is the best running threat in QB history arguably and that ultimately caps Dobbins upside. Doesn’t mean I dont think he can live up to his adp but I think it makes it hard to outplay it. I want guys with the upside to explode and vastly outplay their adp. 

Right. I think Gus Edwards is a plodder/bruiser. He might vulture some short yardage work but the assumption is that last year's 50/50 split will trend more towards 75/25 in favor of Dobbins. That's where the potential to explode and outperform ADP comes from. At least IMO.

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14 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Right. I think Gus Edwards is a plodder/bruiser. He might vulture some short yardage work but the assumption is that last year's 50/50 split will trend more towards 75/25 in favor of Dobbins. That's where the potential to explode and outperform ADP comes from. At least IMO.

also a fair point.  if that happens, hes a high end RB2 with an outside chance to be a low end RB1

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Hope he’s ok

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Not good at all, could be done. I’d imagine they sign a free agent now, I wouldn’t go too hard on Gus just yet. 

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28 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Not good at all, could be done. I’d imagine they sign a free agent now, I wouldn’t go too hard on Gus just yet. 

yeah, looks bad.  poor guy. 

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27 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Lamar Jackson just became a 1000 yard rusher again...

That’s his rock bottom floor I’d say. 

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

Not good at all, could be done. I’d imagine they sign a free agent now, I wouldn’t go too hard on Gus just yet. 

What free agent could they sign that would keep one from going hard on Gus?

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12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

What free agent could they sign that would keep one from going hard on Gus?

Literally anybody lol

isn't there another round of cuts coming up?

 

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1 minute ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Literally anybody lol

isn't there another round of cuts coming up?

 

What specific names would be available that would move the needle? A trade perhaps, but some scrub wouldn't concern me. 

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

What specific names would be available that would move the needle?

Taysom Hill.

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Just now, AxeElf said:

Taysom Hill.

Good one...

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5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

What specific names would be available that would move the needle? A trade perhaps, but some scrub wouldn't concern me. 

I haven’t seen the last round of cuts.
 

I’m not expecting anyone as good as Fournette like last year but you never know. 

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Kerryon Johnson is the biggest name, but he stinks. The bottom line is unless there is a trade for a decent player, Mr. Edwards will be a top 15 RB.

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17 minutes ago, jrokh said:

What specific names would be available that would move the needle? A trade perhaps, but some scrub wouldn't concern me. 

Maybe Duke Johnson, deandre Washington, lev bell. I just don’t see it as a situation where now he’s just the every down workhorse, coaches usually don’t gameplan like that. 

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Just now, tanatastic said:

Maybe Duke Johnson, deandre Washington, lev bell. I just don’t see it as a situation where now he’s just the every down workhorse, coaches usually don’t gameplan like that. 

He won't be an every down workhorse, he'll be the 1st and second down workhorse, on the run-heaviest team in football.

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

He won't be an every down workhorse, he'll be the 1st and second down workhorse, on the run-heaviest team in football.

Whatever role they had planned for him before this injury will probably be the role he’s still in is all I’m saying. 

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1 minute ago, tanatastic said:

Whatever role they had planned for him before this injury will probably be the role he’s still in is all I’m saying. 

Whatever role they had planned for him was based on JK Dobbins being the lead back. Now it's next man up, which is Mr. Edwards.

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I think edwards is now part of that rb void around RB18-22. As far as dobbins replacement, Mark Ingram making a return to Baltimore makes sense to me. Baltimore gave Gus a 2 year $10 million contract. They obviously like him.

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52 minutes ago, Nomad99 said:

What does this do for Jackson's value? Up or down??

Maybe up but that’s a stretch, the game plans aren’t going to change dramatically. They will bring someone in to fill the role they had planned for dobbins even if it’s to a lesser extent. I was also thinking they trade for Mark Ingram back. Gurley visited them in June so maybe he’s on speed dial.

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2 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Maybe up but that’s a stretch, the game plans aren’t going to change dramatically. They will bring someone in to fill the role they had planned for dobbins even if it’s to a lesser extent. I was also thinking they trade for Mark Ingram back. Gurley visited them in June so maybe he’s on speed dial.

Again we are in disagreement here. Gus Edwards will fill Dobbins role, if they bring someone in it will be to fill Edwards' role. As for Ljax, I don't see how it would be a negative...

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