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snatchit

I am starting to think, drafting Melvin Gordon in the late 7th round.. might be a good pick

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8 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I have no idea if he's the slowest RB in the league.  I'll even concede that he is.  I don't know what that proves though.  While being the slowest RB in the NFL, he's still managed to average 3.125 receptions, 88.5 total yards, and 0.6875 total TD's per game, over his career.  Do the math.  That equates to 16.1 fpg.  Last year, he averaged 13.76 fpg.  I think Locke's ineffectiveness had a bigger role in that than Gordon being slow.

Running through mud and still finished RB14 in total points.  I'll take that over the speedy Tevin Coleman who had only 87 total yards last year in 8 games.

 

I think both Gordon and Coleman are in fact on borrowed time, based on their respective teams drafting RB's this past April (May? - whenever).  That said, the upside with Gordon is vastly superior to Coleman's, regardless of how fast or slow each are.  Ideally, I'd rather avoid Gordon at R7/8 and get him a couple rounds later.  Sure, that would put him in Coleman territory, but I have EVERY Jets player on my DND list.  I wouldn't draft Coleman with the last pick in the draft.  I'd rather take a backup kicker.

What's the point of doing averages if my point is that the player looks slow and is trending downward? I'm not expecting him to maintain same production if I think he's on the decline.

The reason I argue your take about upside being incorrect is because Javonte is built in the same mold as Gordon, big and strong. Javonte is meant for early down work. 

Jets on the other hand drafted Javonte's counterpart, the much smaller Michael Carter, who might not be well suited for early down or short yardage work. 

Do I think Coleman is very good? Not really. But the opportunity is similar, he has less thread on his tires, and he can be had much later than Gordon. For me, the upside with both is just about the same.

I'll take the player I can draft 3-4 rounds later.

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On 8/28/2021 at 10:20 PM, snatchit said:

He is my # 4 RB ... might make a flex start. He wasnt bad last year. I will take the 1st half of the season for production, if that is all I get

By week 8 he'll be relegated  to mop up duty for Jaconte Williams. Hr won't be a Bronco next year.

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13 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

What's the point of doing averages if my point is that the player looks slow and is trending downward? I'm not expecting him to maintain same production if I think he's on the decline.

The reason I argue your take about upside being incorrect is because Javonte is built in the same mold as Gordon, big and strong. Javonte is meant for early down work. 

Jets on the other hand drafted Javonte's counterpart, the much smaller Michael Carter, who might not be well suited for early down or short yardage work. 

Do I think Coleman is very good? Not really. But the opportunity is similar, he has less thread on his tires, and he can be had much later than Gordon. For me, the upside with both is just about the same.

I'll take the player I can draft 3-4 rounds later.

  • Melvin Gordon's yards/touch over the last 5 seasons, 4.8, 4.6, 6.1, 4.5, 4.6.  There's ONE outlier.  His production has been consistent, his opportunities have not.  Most of that is due to availability.  Sure, that's necessary, but we're not talking about a star RB... we're talking about a decent player who's on a below average offense.
  • Last year, in a year where he had the second most rush attempts in his career... where you claim he was "running in mud", he averaged 4.6 yards per attempt which is the second highest of his career.
  • His catch percentage (72.7%), is in line with his career average (74.9%).

How is that a downward trend?

Yes, his receiving numbers are down, but that's his fault and not Locke's?

I'm well aware that they drafted Williams and that might lead to Gordon being replaced.  It's why I said I'd prefer him a couple of rounds later.  Coleman is terrible and just not even worth a roster spot.

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:
  • Melvin Gordon's yards/touch over the last 5 seasons, 4.8, 4.6, 6.1, 4.5, 4.6.  There's ONE outlier.  His production has been consistent, his opportunities have not.  Most of that is due to availability.  Sure, that's necessary, but we're not talking about a star RB... we're talking about a decent player who's on a below average offense.
  • Last year, in a year where he had the second most rush attempts in his career... where you claim he was "running in mud", he averaged 4.6 yards per attempt which is the second highest of his career.
  • His catch percentage (72.7%), is in line with his career average (74.9%).

How is that a downward trend?

Yes, his receiving numbers are down, but that's his fault and not Locke's?

I'm well aware that they drafted Williams and that might lead to Gordon being replaced.  It's why I said I'd prefer him a couple of rounds later.  Coleman is terrible and just not even worth a roster spot.

That was for sure Locke's fault. Bridgewater will get him the ball. I think Denver has a shot to go deep in the playoffs. Unless Gordon completely craps the bed, they should trust him more. He is a savy vet that is great at pass pro. Williams is going to help them a lot, running him in there on some plays. If Gordon wears down in the season for the 1st time in his career... Williams will take more touches. Yes this is Gordons last year, I would image he knows this, and will step up his game for a new contract somewhere. 

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I think it’s going to be very close to a 50/50 split early on, and then the more talented J Williams take some over more and more going forward.  

Thanks w

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Just now, weepaws said:

I think it’s going to be very close to a 50/50 split early on, and then the more talented J Williams take some over more and more going forward.  

Thanks w

you are probably right, Gordon still has value. Williams went in the 4th in my draft, and I got Gordon in the 7th... I am fine with that

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I agree , and if one has the space, I think owning both isn’t a bad move either. 

Thanks w

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On 9/1/2021 at 9:36 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this.  Gordon has good hands.  With Bridgewater, McCaffrey averaged 6 receptions per game early on, so Bridgewater was clearly willing and able to check down with him.  Is Gordon as good as McCaffrey?  No... but he's at least as good as Davis... who had 59 receptions last year.  My only issue on Gordon is playing time.  I don't know if Williams will take his job and if he does... when?  But, if/when, Gordon is on the field, I think he can/will be productive on the ground and through the air.

that is always a factor.   in San Diego, Gordon was the Bellcow.   That isnt the situation here.   so is a return to historical numbers reasonable?

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16 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

that is always a factor.   in San Diego, Gordon was the Bellcow.   That isnt the situation here.   so is a return to historical numbers reasonable?

Same?  No.  Close?  I think so.  Although, I don't discount the possibility that Williams prevents him.  For the most part, I'm talking about ceiling/potential and not necessarily probability.  I mean, if we were talking about probability, we'd be talking about him going in the 3rd through 5th rounds.  I mentioned above in another post that his production per touch is relatively the same as it was in his 2nd and 3rd seasons and that only opportunity has been the issue.  Now, I believe most of that is due to his supporting cast and availability.  Could he be the issue?  Sure, but I think that's a very small part.  His ypa was the 2nd highest in his career last year, so he's still running well.  His catch% was around his career average... but his ypc was down.  I think that's more to do with Locke than Gordon... after all, they replaced Locke with a known commodity.  They only gave Gordon competition from a rookie.  If they felt that Gordon was done, why not just bring in a more proven player?   Chris Carson only got $5.2M AAV over 2 years.  Mike Davis got similar.  They could've brought in Mark Ingram for only $2.5M or Jamaal Williams for $3M AAV over 2 years.  They chose not to do any of that, they took the draft pick route... a 2nd rounder with a 70% bust probability.

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On 9/3/2021 at 9:21 AM, TBayXXXVII said:
  • where you claim he was "running in mud",

Raheem Mostert was the fastest ball carrier last season with a top speed of 23.09 mph (blazing fast)

Unfortunately I cannot find stats for the slowest ball carrier but I'm sure Melvin would be top 10 for slowest top speed. 

All of the stats you provided are correct, but I don't care. None of that disproves my observation. He can still average 4.6 ypc and be the slowest RB in the NFL.

My observation's are simple:

Melvin Gordon is slow. Not sure why you keep fighting me here. 

Javonte Williams was drafted to be a an early downs RB. a 2nd round pick on a RB is extremely early in today's NFL. 

Gordon is trending downward. If you wanna be on board when the ship sinks, be my guest. 

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On 9/3/2021 at 5:06 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

His ypa was the 2nd highest in his career last year, so he's still running well.  

No he's not. Not only is he slow but 4.6 ypc is not great. That's slightly above average if anything.

 

On 9/3/2021 at 5:06 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

They only gave Gordon competition from a rookie.  If they felt that Gordon was done, why not just bring in a more proven player?   Chris Carson only got $5.2M AAV over 2 years.  Mike Davis got similar.  They could've brought in Mark Ingram for only $2.5M or Jamaal Williams for $3M AAV over 2 years.  They chose not to do any of that, they took the draft pick route... a 2nd rounder with a 70% bust probability.

This makes ZERO sense. Now your delusions are altering reality. If a team thinks their old RB is slowing down you think instead of drafting a rookie early they should sign some old loser like Mark Ingram?

You have some heavy confirmation bias going on if this is what you concluded from the Broncos drafting one of the top RB prospects in this years draft lol

 

I'd also love to know where this 70% bust probability came from. 

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I'm sure Melvin would be top 10 for slowest top speed.

Last-Generation Stats.

21 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I'd also love to know where this 70% bust probability came from. 

Self-Generation Stats.

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Coleman listen #1 on depth chart. Can be had almost for free as opposed to Melvin Gordon. 

For everyone saying the Jets will be a dumpster fire I ask - Why?

New QB, new WR, new coach. 

I'd expect the Jets to be different from last year. Idk if I predict anything new from Broncos except they drafted a top RB prospect and are starting a risk-averse QB in Teddy and have a super old school coach in Vic Fangio. That's not exactly a recipe for a good offense for fantasy points. 

I'm not confident in either offense but if I had to guess which will be more productive from a fantasy stand point I'd choose the Jets and the unknown. 

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Coleman is number one, because someone had to me listed number one, it’s a RBBC with four Rbs . 

New Coach, new Qb, New Wr no true rb1 to be found on the Jets , they could be as bad as last season. 

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I disagree to the notion that it's 4-headed RBBC.

The only 2 guys on the roster from last year are Johnson and Perine. Perine was awful last year and Johnson literally took the job from him. 

Adding Coleman and drafting Carter doesn't mean they want to keep giving Johnson and Perine the ball. 

At one point last year they had Le'veon Bell, Frank Gore, and Kalen Ballage all on the active roster. 

I think last year's RBBC was more a product of nothing really working. There's no guarantee a new coach in Salah wants to do the same thing. 

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2 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

There's no guarantee a new coach in Salah wants to do the same thing.

Axe Elf guarantees it.

There, better?

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Axe Elf guarantees it.

There, better?

if I never had to give the ball to La'Mical Perine I wouldn't. 

Just sayin.

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On 9/4/2021 at 6:28 PM, LoOnAtIk said:

Melvin Gordon is slow. Not sure why you keep fighting me here. 

Wrong. His madden 22 speed rating is 91. He ran a 4.5 40 at the combine. He’s not slow. 

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17 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Wrong. His madden 22 speed rating is 91. He ran a 4.5 40 at the combine. He’s not slow. 

Lol a video game and a combine that took place 6 years ago.

You're joking right? Also have you played Madden in the last 10 years or so? It's awful.

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14 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Lol a video game and a combine that took place 6 years ago.

You're joking right? Also have you played Madden in the last 10 years or so? It's awful.

Whatever metric someone wants to use will show he’s fast, not slow. 

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

Whatever metric someone wants to use will show he’s fast, not slow. 

Dude just use your eyes. Any Broncos or Chargers homers here? They’ll tell you.

Go on YouTube and type “Melvin gordon Broncos” and just watch. 
 

I mentioned earlier I thought he was a monster in college so his combine time means nothing to me I agree with the combine time.

My observation is how he barely looks like that runner from Wisconsin. I wish I knew what happened. Elf says he looks spry in the preseason so we’ll see. I haven’t seen him this year yet but I know what I’ve seen last few seasons. 
 

He’s a plodder.
 

 

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Dude just use your eyes. Any Broncos or Chargers homers here? They’ll tell you.

Go on YouTube and type “Melvin gordon Broncos” and just watch. 
 

I mentioned earlier I thought he was a monster in college so his combine time means nothing to me I agree with the combine time.

My observation is how he barely looks like that runner from Wisconsin. I wish I knew what happened. Elf says he looks spry in the preseason so we’ll see. I haven’t seen him this year yet but I know what I’ve seen last few seasons. 
 

He’s a plodder.
 

 

Thanks, I took your advice and YouTubed it and watched his 2020 highlights which made me realize hes actually faster than even I had thought. Looking great, burning defensive backs on multiple plays (I especially like 1:30). Power, speed, catching, all the reasons I love his huge discount this season. I laugh when people say Javonte will take his job at any point this season. Not at all a plodder. All you need to see is 1:30. A plodder gets tackled at 1:35, he turns on the burners and races to the end zone. Plodder doesn’t make the play at 2:44 either.
https://youtu.be/pdKajQvdP5k

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15 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

A plodder gets tackled at 1:35, he turns on the burners and races to the end zone.

What?  He didn't "turn on the burners"; he literally SLOWED DOWN and made the defender miss--probly because he knew he couldn't outrun him.  And defenders were closing on him as he scored.

The very first play on the clip he looks slow.

First pass play at 0:30--he kind of blows by the linebacker in coverage--but then the linebacker basically catches up immediately and matches his speed.  He doesn't create any space, the defender is ON him when he makes the great extended catch.  A guy like Mostert would have outrun the LB to the end zone.

I'll give you the play at 1:15--good burst on that one.

But keep in mind we're watching HIGHLIGHTS--one would expect him to look better here than he did on a play-to-play basis--and he really doesn't look that great even in the highlights.

Well, let me rephrase that.  He made some great catches--above average hands for a RB.  I saw a lot of pushing the pile at the goalline--a valuable skill.

But I'm just not seeing a lot of "fast" there.  Granted, I din't watch til the end.

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8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I'll give you the play at 1:15--good burst on that one.

But I'm just not seeing a lot of "fast" there.  Granted, I din't watch til the end.

The point of showing highlights is that it shows plays where he gets into space and can show his speed. He’s good at both patient running as well as being able to turn on the jets and accelerate to the end zone after stopping like he did in the play you no he didn’t look fast but he really did. I saw a lot of fast there. Watch 2:44, I made time stamps in my post for a reason, they prove my argument inarguably. Even if the guy I responded to scoured the internet to find less flattering clips it wouldn’t matter, that’s not how this works. His video wouldn’t invalidate my video. If I show you a video of a car doing 80 and you show me that car doing 50, that doesn’t mean the car can’t do 80, I already showed it can. 
 

He’s a 91 speed rating player.

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The few Denver games I watched last year were ugly from an RB standpoint. Lindsay seemed to always try and bounce outside, often times for a loss. MG looked like he was lacking effort. Granted it's hard to stay motivated on a bad team. I don't necessarily like either MG or the rookie, but I think Javonte at least has something to prove...

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38 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I made time stamps in my post for a reason, they prove my argument inarguably.

The accurate part of this statement is that you did make time stamps in your post.

However, the second part of your statement is patently false, given the following:

8 hours ago, AxeElf said:

What?  He didn't "turn on the burners"; he literally SLOWED DOWN and made the defender miss--probly because he knew he couldn't outrun him.  And defenders were closing on him as he scored.

The very first play on the clip he looks slow.

First pass play at 0:30--he kind of blows by the linebacker in coverage--but then the linebacker basically catches up immediately and matches his speed.  He doesn't create any space, the defender is ON him when he makes the great extended catch.  A guy like Mostert would have outrun the LB to the end zone.

So I don't think that the word "prove" means what you think it means.

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7 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The accurate part of this statement is that you did make time stamps in your post.

However, the second part of your statement is patently false, given the following:

So I don't think that the word "prove" means what you think it means.

He’s not a plodder, hes not slow, he’s fast. Convincing people of that is my only goal of this argument. I have shown people a banana with my video, if they choose to see it as an Orange there’s nothing left to discuss. Later when Loonatik sees all this he will be elated that you are on his side and he will double down on the things you said and ignore or try to invalidate my video. He will see the banana as an orange and there’s nothing I can do about that. 

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2 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

He’s not a plodder, hes not slow, he’s fast.

Compared to the average citizen, you are correct.  Compared to the average NFL RB in 2020, not so much.

Like I said, I've seen glimmers of hope that maybe his sobriety has made him a little more banana-like this season--but your clip definitely has a more citrus feel.

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

He’s not a plodder, hes not slow, he’s fast. Convincing people of that is my only goal of this argument. I have shown people a banana with my video, if they choose to see it as an Orange there’s nothing left to discuss. Later when Loonatik sees all this he will be elated that you are on his side and he will double down on the things you said and ignore or try to invalidate my video. He will see the banana as an orange and there’s nothing I can do about that. 

You were impressed by his Broncos “highlights”??

Try to remember those were his best plays of the season. He didn’t outrun anyone FFS.

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22 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

You were impressed by his Broncos “highlights”??

Try to remember those were his best plays of the season. He didn’t outrun anyone FFS.

Knew you would “highlight shame” me. Tell me to YouTube his name then shame me when I post the very first video as if it’s not good enough. 😂 classic internet ruing. It’s not about them being good plays, it’s about showing you that he is not a plodder when he runs. When I make posts I give the pertinents so I hate repeating myself, but I will. A plodder doesn’t make the plays at the time stamped marks I listed. Hence he is fast, not slow. That’s the very last word on the subject. 
 

He is a 91 speed player.

”B-b-but if you take away all those plays he looked fast in, he’s really slow! So I win!” 🤣
 

I bid you Adieu, goodbye and good…night…BANG!

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

He is a 91 speed player.

They have Kamara at 89.

You can't seriously think these ratings are objective. You think Melvin Gordon is faster than Kamara just because Madden said so?

C'mon Tana get a grip.

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2 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

They have Kamara at 89.

Kamara runs a 4.53 40.  Gordon's was 4.52.  Kamara is slower than Gordon.  Case closed.

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5 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

They have Kamara at 89.

You can't seriously think these ratings are objective. You think Melvin Gordon is faster than Kamara just because Madden said so?

C'mon Tana get a grip.

I’m just using that phrase in a general sense to say that I think he’s in that range of speed for real and not “a plodder”. I think if we can meet in the middle I’d like to hear at least that the video I provided proves that he is not “a plodder” as a plodder does not make the plays I timestamped. 
 

If we want to expad the debate to his season outlook and speculation I stand firm that he is an RB2 and Javonte simply is there to take the Lindsay role from last season.

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2 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I’m just using that phrase in a general sense to say that I think he’s in that range of speed for real and not “a plodder”. I think if we can meet in the middle I’d like to hear at least that the video I provided proves that he is not “a plodder” as a plodder does not make the plays I timestamped. 
 

If we want to expad the debate to his season outlook and speculation I stand firm that he is an RB2 and Javonte simply is there to take the Lindsay role from last season.

Name me a slower RB that might be a potential starter. That's the point I'm trying to make. Even his mom said he looked slow last year. 

Melvin Gordon's Mom Picks Apart Broncos RB: 'I Told Him He Looks Slow' - Sports Illustrated Mile High Huddle: Denver Broncos News, Analysis and More

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14 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Name me a slower RB that might be a potential starter. That's the point I'm trying to make. Even his mom said he looked slow last year. 

Melvin Gordon's Mom Picks Apart Broncos RB: 'I Told Him He Looks Slow' - Sports Illustrated Mile High Huddle: Denver Broncos News, Analysis and More

lol

Gordon's mom knows more about football than @tanatastic

Too funny...

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I won this debate the second that video was linked so nothing further is needed. Nothing said or shown negates what’s shown in it. He’s fast. I know it, madden knows it. The quote from his mom you found when you frantically googled “Melvin Gordon slow” to find something tangible is quite funny though, I’ll give you that. 
 

Bonus: In no way is Javonte more talented in any phase of the game than Melvin.

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4 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Nothing said or shown negates what’s shown in it.

Of course not.  We are AGREEING with what's shown in it, as described by Gordon's own mother.

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1 hour ago, tanatastic said:

I won this debate the second that video was linked so nothing further is needed. Nothing said or shown negates what’s shown in it. He’s fast. I know it, madden knows it. The quote from his mom you found when you frantically googled “Melvin Gordon slow” to find something tangible is quite funny though, I’ll give you that. 
 

Bonus: In no way is Javonte more talented in any phase of the game than Melvin.

Javonte Williams:

-Scored in 10 of 11 games in 2020.
-4.59 yards after contact per attempt ranked 11th in the nation, ahead of Travis Etienne (3.84) and Najee Harris (3.26).
-Broke Pro Football Focus' record for broken tackles per attempt (0.48) and earned the highest single-season rushing grade in PFF's history (95.9).
-75 broken tackles led the nation.
-27 carries of 15-plus yards (second-best in nation), but only 13 carries of 20-plus yards and 10 of 25-plus yards (including three against Duke). 

 

Not talented at all.

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