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GobbleDog

Late round QBs... who ya like?

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Current 12 team ADP:

7th: Tom Brady

8th: Matt Stafford

9th: Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts

10th: Joe Burrow

11th: Trey Lance, Justin Fields

12th: Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield

13th: Jameis Winston

14th: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson

16th/undrafted: Mac Jones, Tua Tagavaoiloa, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Jared Goff

(edited for Elf)

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Hurts, after the top 7 it's a gamble. He could be top 5, or he could be benched by week 5. If he is benched I just go to the qb by committee.

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You left the QB6 from the back half of 2019 off the list entirely--the highest-rated deep passer in the NFL, coincidentally with a shiny new deep receiver!  (Daniel Jones)

Kirk Cousins was the QB3 for the back half of 2020 (Weeks 10-17), behind Rodgers and Watson--and not much has changed for him since then.  You also don't list Derek Carr, but he was the QB11 over the same stretch, and hopes to be developing some young WR talent this season.  Carr is also one of only 3 QBs to have played in every game over the past 3 seasons (Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are the other two).

Only 3 QBs have averaged more than 500 pass attempts over the last 3 seasons:  Matt Ryan (554.7), Tom Brady (532.7) and Jared Goff (514.0).  Matthew Stafford now has Goff's job.  Over his 10 healthy seasons in the NFL, Matthew Stafford has averaged 583.7 pass attempts per year.

Since 2015, Matt Ryan has finished lower than QB12 only once (QB15 in 2017).

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Kirk Cousins finished 11th in my league last year. I'm perplexed by his ridiculously low ADP.  I'd expect another 10th+- place finish and possibly much higher this season.?.

Also bullish on Stafford, but I'll be surprised if he actually falls to 8th on draft day.

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12 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Also bullish on Stafford, but I'll be surprised if he actually falls to 8th on draft day.

I get him in the late 9th on the reg in 10 team Yahoo Best Ball drafts.

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Any of those Qb make into the double digit rounds , that’s who I like.  

Then stream. 

Thanks w 

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50 minutes ago, Byrdman5 said:

Tannehill or Cousins. Maybe pair Lance or Fields with them. 

Or, you know, a QB that starts in the NFL maybe...

Just a thought.

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7 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Or, you know, a QB that starts in the NFL maybe...

Just a thought.

Rather stash the drafted upside QB, than grab a 2nd QB who will probably be in the WW after week 1.

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4 minutes ago, Byrdman5 said:

Rather stash the drafted upside QB, than grab a 2nd QB who will probably be in the WW after week 1.

ERROR

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Before Round 10, I'll take Brady in round 7.  Anytime you can get the #1 QB that late, you're roster is set.  After round 10, I'll take Mayfield.  I think he's has a chance to be a QB1.

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Mac Jones will be a interesting QB to take late

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By the way the Eagles have conducted business, trading for Minshew afrer signing Flacco, it seems to me they aren’t sold on Hurts. It’s what you do, not what you say.  

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1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

By the way the Eagles have conducted business, trading for Minshew afrer signing Flacco, it seems to me they aren’t sold on Hurts. It’s what you do, not what you say.  

And they tried to trade for Watson in between the two.

Yep, writing's on the wall.  Hurts better come out firing on all cylinders, 'cause I'd give him about 4-5 weeks if not.

  • Thanks 1

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2 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

A change of scenery might do him some good.

The change from the west coast to the east coast didn't...

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20 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

By the way the Eagles have conducted business, trading for Minshew afrer signing Flacco, it seems to me they aren’t sold on Hurts. It’s what you do, not what you say.  

Agreed. 

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7 minutes ago, Super Cubs said:

I took a flyer on Darnold  in round 15 my 2nd to last pick.  A change of scenery might do him some good.  

He has the best supporting cast around him on offense that he’s ever had in the NFL. 

Im going to keep an eye on his season, I want to see if he avg 20 ff points per game like Bridgewater did last season, I’m still not sold on Darnold. 

Also remember Mccaffery only played on four games last season so another benefit for Darnold if Mccaffery indeed stays healthy. 

Thanks w

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On 9/1/2021 at 5:40 PM, GobbleDog said:

Current 12 team ADP:

7th: Tom Brady

8th: Matt Stafford

9th: Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts

10th: Joe Burrow

11th: Trey Lance, Justin Fields

12th: Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield

13th: Jameis Winston

14th: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson

16th/undrafted: Mac Jones, Tua Tagavaoiloa, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Jared Goff

(edited for Elf)

The best values to me are 

  1. Stafford - Good players that get traded usually have good years in that 1st year because of the extra motivation of being traded.  Then he's stepping into a good system that will score a bunch of points. 
  2. Jameis Winston - If Brees can put up big numbers with a noodle arm, Jameis can too.
  3. Fitzpatrick - He's boom or bust, but this team is really a good fit for him in my eyes with plenty of deep threats.  Perfect for a YOLO QB like Fitz.

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I watch a lot of USC football and Darnold is overrated.  When the pressure is off, he's a fine QB, but as soon as the stakes go up, he wilts.  He's going to show up for this meaningless revenge game against the Jets in week 1 and fool a lot of people.

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34 minutes ago, nobody said:

The best values to me are  

  1. Jameis Winston - If Brees can put up big numbers with a noodle arm, Jameis can too

This is flawed logic. Brees was one of the better QBs ever. If he had a noodle arm it must mean he had a good mental game. I don’t think you could ever say Winston has a good mental game. 

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2 minutes ago, skinsrule05 said:

I don’t think you could ever say Winston has a good mental game.

Or a noodle arm...

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Try to get Lance a little late if you can. He's starting to move up the board though. If you can't get him try to move a bit and get Trey Lance. If that doesn't work use a little fantasy music le and strong-arm your way into getting Trey Lance. Did I mention that Lance is gonna pay dividends if you can get him? LOL. Guess I went a little overboard about Lance but that's what Homer's do.

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53 minutes ago, skinsrule05 said:

This is flawed logic. Brees was one of the better QBs ever. If he had a noodle arm it must mean he had a good mental game. I don’t think you could ever say Winston has a good mental game. 

And there's this thing called "accuracy", very underrated. 

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1 hour ago, skinsrule05 said:

This is flawed logic. Brees was one of the better QBs ever. If he had a noodle arm it must mean he had a good mental game. I don’t think you could ever say Winston has a good mental game. 

Brees did have a better grasp of the position, but defenses didn't have to respect the deep ball.  They will with Jameis, so it will open up options.

 

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I am getting Cousins very late as QB2 - he seems to be undervalued. He doesn't have upside like some of these rookie QBs but should produce low QB1 numbers. 

Took Hurts and Cousins in my last one, not really sold on Hurts but people were starting to take their second QBs before I even picked one.  

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Draft one late and then stream.  

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I love where I've been drafting Daniel Jones. 

They're going to be playing from behind often and those dump offs to Saquon could result in a ton of bonus points in leagues that reward them.

I know his O-line stinks but its been stinky for a while so I wouldn't expect any regression because of a perceived lack of protection. 

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I love Lance for the 2nd half, although I don't usually like stashing a qb. 

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23 hours ago, nobody said:

Fitzpatrick - He's boom or bust, but this team is really a good fit for him in my eyes with plenty of deep threats.  Perfect for a YOLO QB like Fitz.

2020: 9 starts, 2,091 yds, 13 Tds, 8 Ints, 2 rushing Tds

I loved him on my Dolphins, but fantasy wise this looks like a disaster in waiting. Good luck to owners of all Redskin players.

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One shouldn’t own Fitzpatrick, he’s a stream option. 

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I had planned on grabbing Brady at 7.1 last night then Cousins at 13.1 but Rodgers was still there for me so I took him at 7.1. Cousins somehow went in the 9th so I also grabbed Matt Ryan at 11.1. I'm pretty ok with that.

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