lets talk aj brown

[bobby heenan 60]

is anyone else as enamored by the talent as i am?

the only thing really preventing him from really breaking out are targets....well of course and injuries

to me this guy has 95 catch 1400 yard 14+ potential easily...hes that much of a beast.....

but are we scared to death of the dreaded knees? ...its hard to read...it may be a guy just resting and trying to preserve himself after playing through injuries last year....just trying to make sure hes in the best possible state as far as health going into a year that hes elgible to get an extension after....i mean, if youve have had some knee problems and you were elgible for being money wouldnt you want to come into the season with as little wear and tear on you as your team would allow?

if i was looking at a receiver(s) around his ADP im looking at him, jefferson, mclaurin, lamb, allen, evans.....and tbh if everything is equal im taking brown over all of them and not even thinking twice .....but when looking at things from a risk perspective guys like jefferson, allen, mclaurin and lamb all start to look a little better....jefferson could become a true #1....allen already kind of is....mclaurin is now too and with an upgrade at qb....lamb could be big but may be capped a bit with cooper/zeke etc.....i think brown has the potential to blow them all out of the water if fully healthy and playing the whole year....especially if theres a bit of a reduction in henrys work load

whos willing to make that bet? who thinks aj is just taking it easy this summer and getting ready to explode? who thinks the knee/injury issues are too much of a risk?

[bobby heenan 60]

• lets say youre in a 12 team ppr....youre picking 1 or 2....you take cmac or cook....but youve got your heart set on grabbing two potential #1 receivers when they 2/3 turn comes back to you

the guys you are looking at are k allen, aj brown, lamb, jefferson, mclaurin.......is brown too risky for your taste given what you know? would you take him out of consideration? i know it depends on your risk tolerance....and mine is usually pretty high.....just wondering on peoples takes on this potential situation....

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, bobby heenan said:

jefferson could become a true #1

He was the WR6 in PPR last season... as a rookie... with no preseason... and a big part of why Cousins was the QB3 over the back half of 2020.  So unless you play in a 4 team league, Jefferson is already a WR1--and with no Rudolph or Irv Smith, he's probly got room to improve this season.

Lamb is just a freak.  He was the WR10 in PPR last season while Dak was playing... as a rookie... with no preseason... and Cooper, Gallup and Zeke were all there then, too.

So close to the 2/3 turn, if I was going WR/WR, it would be Jefferson and Lamb for me.  (Unfortunately, they share a Week 7 bye.)

I'd take Brown before Allen and McLaurin, but probly after DK Metcalf.

[bobby heenan 60]

4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

He was the WR6 in PPR last season... as a rookie... with no preseason... and a big part of why Cousins was the QB3 over the back half of 2020.  So unless you play in a 4 team league, Jefferson is already a WR1--and with no Rudolph or Irv Smith, he's probly got room to improve this season.

Lamb is just a freak.  He was the WR10 in PPR last season while Dak was playing... as a rookie... with no preseason... and Cooper, Gallup and Zeke were all there then, too.

So close to the 2/3 turn, if I was going WR/WR, it would be Jefferson and Lamb for me.  (Unfortunately, they share a Week 7 bye.)

I'd take Brown before Allen and McLaurin, but probly after DK Metcalf.

yeah....nah i agree with you...jefferson is a #1....i just meant in terms of putting it all together with the rec, yards and tds....like 95-1400-13/14 kinda stuff is what i was getting at...but youre right

 

and yeah im a big brown/lamb/jefferson guy....thats the trio im really looking hard at....i dont think metcalf will make it back to me but thats ok...jefferson and lamb would be great but like you said the bye week thing makes it tough....i, like you, believe aj/jefferson/lamb have the most upside...and theres alot of talk about them moving lamb around giving him more room to operate this year too

[jrokh 567]

5 hours ago, bobby heenan said:

is anyone else as enamored by the talent as i am?

Yup. Been Big Pimpin Mr. Brown on this bored all off-season…

[snatchit 108]

6 hours ago, AxeElf said:

He was the WR6 in PPR last season... as a rookie... with no preseason... and a big part of why Cousins was the QB3 over the back half of 2020.  So unless you play in a 4 team league, Jefferson is already a WR1--and with no Rudolph or Irv Smith, he's probly got room to improve this season.

Lamb is just a freak.  He was the WR10 in PPR last season while Dak was playing... as a rookie... with no preseason... and Cooper, Gallup and Zeke were all there then, too.

So close to the 2/3 turn, if I was going WR/WR, it would be Jefferson and Lamb for me.  (Unfortunately, they share a Week 7 bye.)

I'd take Brown before Allen and McLaurin, but probly after DK Metcalf.

We would be having Lamb right up there with Jefferson in drafts... if Dak didnt get hurt last year.

 

[weepaws 2,452]

At his ADP I passed. 

Thanks w

 

[bobby heenan 60]

15 hours ago, jrokh said:

Yup. Been Big Pimpin Mr. Brown on this bored all off-season…

nice....lets not forget what happened to the last guy i was saying how much i loved....and brown already comes with injury concerns....how do you feel about them? its an issue....although being elgible for a deal im sure this guy would play through them...sounds like he did last year too....which is great and all...but if the situation gets worse and hes still out there he could be a liabilty to fantasy owners....of course the other side, as ive mentioned, is that hes just kind of resting to avoid any wear and tear in the preseason that would be kind of unnecessary

[jrokh 567]

22 minutes ago, bobby heenan said:

nice....lets not forget what happened to the last guy i was saying how much i loved....and brown already comes with injury concerns....how do you feel about them? its an issue....although being elgible for a deal im sure this guy would play through them...sounds like he did last year too....which is great and all...but if the situation gets worse and hes still out there he could be a liabilty to fantasy owners....of course the other side, as ive mentioned, is that hes just kind of resting to avoid any wear and tear in the preseason that would be kind of unnecessary

I'm not concerned. He was load managed all last season and except for the first couple of games he answered the bell every time and balled out. He should be healthier this season after cleanup surgery in his knees. Now if you are risk averse and you are choosing between him and say DK, Jefferson, or Ridley, It makes sense to go with guys who haven't had the same injury history, but In Fantasy Football unless its a major injury, like say Saquon, I always gravitate towards the best talent. For me, that's AJ Brown, although the other guys I mentioned are also really good. I'm also in the camp that Julio will actually help AJ, I realize some have the opposing viewpoint. I watched a lot of Titans games last season and Corey Davis was always single covered, usually with the worse CB. No way defenses do that with Julio, and AJ should benefit from easier coverage.

[polecatt 399]

AJ Brown is about as talented as any WR in the NFL.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if any given season he ends up the #1 fantasy WR.

I think just about any season he's healthy, he's gonna be a WR1.

The main concerns are of course, his knee problems, what football player doesn't have those?

His team, a run oriented offense, with a somewhat suspect QB. I know Tannehill has played very well as of late, but still. He also has Julio Jones on the other side now, so don't know if that's gonna help or hurt.

[weepaws 2,452]

Yea can’t agree that A J is very talented,,but I just couldn’t take him at his ADP. I think his presence on the other side of J J could lead to even more tds for JJ.  

Maybe.  

Thanks w

[handbanana 47]

Aren’t any of you guys concerned about AJ and JJ’s current injuries and how much camp they’ve missed and who knows how healthy they are to begin a very long season?  Man, I dunno… huge risk and reward for both these guys 

[weepaws 2,452]

I think the OP did a fantastic job of covering the injury issues. 

Thanks w 

[bobby heenan 60]

19 hours ago, polecatt said:

AJ Brown is about as talented as any WR in the NFL.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if any given season he ends up the #1 fantasy WR.

I think just about any season he's healthy, he's gonna be a WR1.

The main concerns are of course, his knee problems, what football player doesn't have those?

His team, a run oriented offense, with a somewhat suspect QB. I know Tannehill has played very well as of late, but still. He also has Julio Jones on the other side now, so don't know if that's gonna help or hurt.

i hear that....what concerns me probably more than anything is them being a run oriented team....but i start to wonder just how many more times can henry handle 380 carries......tannehill is still a bit sus but i also think hes shown enough that he cant deliver for AJ if they push the ball his way.........as far as julio....im not sure what he is at this point...hes not young...and hes had problems too....he might be more of a "name" at this point.....AJ needs 140 targets.....if he gets that he can get the job done well for fantasy owners IMO....but youre right if they are running successfully and julio is still even 80 percent of who he was that could be a problem.........im starting to wonder though if there isnt a switch that goes off in the coaching staffs head that says "in order to preserve derek we need to feed this beast a little more"...

[bobby heenan 60]

10 hours ago, handbanana said:

Aren’t any of you guys concerned about AJ and JJ’s current injuries and how much camp they’ve missed and who knows how healthy they are to begin a very long season?  Man, I dunno… huge risk and reward for both these guys 

yes that is def a concern....on the other hand.....i start to wonder...since AJ played through pain last year if he isnt putting wear and tear on his knees in camp to preserve himself.....if the coaching staff is ok with that then it could be something they are doing...."load management" is becoming a big thing in sports over the last so many years...in the nba...mlb....and in the super physical NFL its needed as much as anywhere.....as ive mentioned a few times AJ is elgible for an extension at the end of the year....and you know he wants big money like every other guy in the league is hoping for....i wouldnt put it out of the question that hes trying to have himself completely fresh and that hes actually fine right now.....granted 2 years in the league doesnt make you complete and you havent learned everything youre going to....but i think hes learned enough and knows how to play by now that its not all that necessary for him to go full out in camp

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,566]

hes great, yet also the most frustrating WR I have ever rostered

 

[Meatscarf 1]

I got him at 35 overall in ppr league. 10 teamer ….. he’s my 3rd wr

[weepaws 2,452]

Wow fourth round 

[rallo 132]

Got him in the middle of the 3rd after going RB/RB... I'm not sure how I feel about it. I have a feeling CeeDee will outproduce him this year, but I didn't feel like reaching early and didn't expect to see him back in the 4th

[weepaws 2,452]

What round was Lamb drafted?

[rallo 132]

At the wheel of 3rd/4th in a 12 teamer

[AxeElf 787]

21 minutes ago, rallo said:

At the wheel of 3rd/4th in a 12 teamer

So you wouldn't have really been "reaching" to take the better player.

[jrokh 567]

Just now, AxeElf said:

So you wouldn't have really been "reaching" to take the better player.

Correct. he didn't. He took Brown...

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, jrokh said:

Correct. he didn't. He took Brown...

So I can put you down for $50 on Brown vs. Lamb?

[rallo 132]

3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

So you wouldn't have really been "reaching" to take the better player.

To be fair, I really thought about it, but had picked Zeke earlier in the draft and did not want to pair WR and RB from the same team... although I think I will regret this pick midway through the season... I am very high on CeeDee this year

[jrokh 567]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

So I can put you down for $50 on Brown vs. Lamb?

One bet per season is enough for me, but if you want to save this for bragging rights go for it. You can include in that Amon Ra will be mostly worthless, Calloway outscores Trequan, and Chase Edmonds is way better than James Connor in the same bundle if it pleases you...

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, rallo said:

To be fair, I really thought about it, but had picked Zeke earlier in the draft and did not want to pair WR and RB from the same team.

Why not?  It promotes consistency in your scoring to have a RB/WR pair from the same team.  I probly have 10 teams with both Zeke and Lamb.

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, jrokh said:

One bet per season is enough for me, but if you want to save this for bragging rights go for it. You can include in that Amon Ra will be mostly worthless, Calloway outscores Trequan, and Chase Edmonds is way better than James Connor in the same bundle if it pleases you...

Easy to be a contrarian with no skin in the game.

#tailtuck

[jrokh 567]

2 minutes ago, rallo said:

although I think I will regret this pick midway through the season..

You won't although both are good bets to be top 12. Your instinct was the correct one, feel good about it...

[rallo 132]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Why not?  It promotes consistency in your scoring to have a RB/WR pair from the same team.  I probly have 10 teams with both Zeke and Lamb.

Eh, is was that paired with keying on a lot of players with the week 7 bye... probably paralysis by analysis, but we will see how it goes

[jrokh 567]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Easy to be a contrarian with no skin in the game.

#tailtuck

Not being contrarian, Your positions are more contrarian compared to the consensus. Regardless, I don't care about consensus. I will just be adding these to the ledger that included last season's Elf Predictions like Jonathan Taylor won't be any good and the same for David Montgomery, when both were league winners. The faxts will show conclusively that the elf is wrong way more than she is right...

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, rallo said:

Eh, is was that paired with keying on a lot of players with the week 7 bye... probably paralysis by analysis, but we will see how it goes

Now that's a real thing.  Week 7 has a LOT of the top players/teams this year.

I even drafted an entire fantasy team that has a Week 7 bye this year.  I'll forfeit one game, but I'll be at full strength every other week (barring injuries)!

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, jrokh said:

last season's Elf Predictions like Jonathan Taylor won't be any good and the same for David Montgomery

Ah yes, fond memories of the "Æ™, I.O.U.!" club...

While Taylor and Montgomery owners were going 3-7 over the first 10 weeks of the season due to their RBs having only 518 (Taylor) and 575 (Montgomery) yards and 4 (Taylor) and 3 (Montgomery) TDs through November, those who listened to Axe Elf were making their playoff run.

They can't be league-winners if they can't get you to the playoffs.

[jrokh 567]

Nice try. You whiffed, at least own it. If Chase Edmonds outscores James Connor by 100 points but not in weeks 2, 5 and 7 is that what matters? Of course not, but that’s what the elf will try to spin. I’ve said it before but your true talents are wasted here on this bored and in fantasy football where you aren’t all that accurate. You would be much better off as the minister of propaganda of some banana republic like Venezuela. Your welcome…

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Nice try. You whiffed, at least own it.

Nice try, but you can't rewrite history.  Nobody's going to the playoffs on a 500 yard, 4 TD RB, and thanx to Axe Elf, they din't have to try.

[jrokh 567]

8 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Nice try, but you can't rewrite history.  Nobody's going to the playoffs on a 500 yard, 4 TD RB, and thanx to Axe Elf, they din't have to try.

Sure spin your weave lier man. You are the George Costanza of this forearm…

[weepaws 2,452]

1 hour ago, rallo said:

At the wheel of 3rd/4th in a 12 teamer

Thanks , if I had the Zeke I would have still taken Lamb over Brown. 

Good luck. 

[rallo 132]

Yep, Lamb is about to have a special year IMO

[AxeElf 787]

15 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Sure spin your weave lier man. You are the George Costanza of this forearm…

Q.  If you call its tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have?

A.  Four.  Calling a tail a leg does not make it a leg.

Calling a good call a bad call doesn't make it a bad call.  Calling the truth a lie doesn't make it false.  Nobody went to the playoffs on 500 yard, 4 TD RBs, even if you say they were league-winners.