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Sean Mooney

Who'd You Buy Stock In?

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I did 5 fantasy drafts this year for money.

 

In two leagues I ended up with Ekeler based off of draft position.

In two leagues I ended up with Kelce based off of draft position.

In all five leagues I ended up with Kenyan Drake....

So yeah- all in on Drake!

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Amon-Ra, Pittman Jr., Shenault, and Van Jefferson(deep leagues). 

 

Rbs Josh Jacobs and AJ Dillon later

 

Trey Lance if I have enough bench slots

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7 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

In two leagues I ended up with Ekeler based off of draft position.

In two leagues I ended up with Kelce based off of draft position.

In all five leagues I ended up with Kenyan Drake....

Wow, that's rough!

Better luck next year!

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2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Wow, that's rough!

Better luck next year!

 

4 of my teams are pretty good on paper. The 5th one I'm not in love with but there is some potential there to turn it around. 

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Wow, that's rough!

Better luck next year!

Who are your guys?

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1 minute ago, rallo said:

Who are your guys?

I will probly be posting the final player frequencies from all my drafts this summer once #60 gets completed later today--in the "Had to Get One In Before Memorial Day" thread.

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Team 1- QB: Josh Allen, RB: Ekeler, Chubb, Mostert, Drake, WR: Woods, Moore, Higgins, Jones Jr, Crowder, TE: Logan Thomas

Team 2- QB: Hurts, RB: Taylor, Harris, Drake, Michel, WR: McLaurin, Allen, Moore, Davis, Jones Jr, TE:Kelce

Team 3 (auction draft)- QB: Murray, RB: Swift, Davis, Edmonds, Drake WR: Allen, Thielen, Boyd, Anderson TE: Thomas

Team 4 (start 2 RB and 3 WR)- QB: Herbert RB: Cook, Montgomery, Drake, Sermon, WR:Diggs, Kupp, Aiyuk, Boyd, Landry, Reagor TE: Hockenson

Team 5- QB: Murray RB: Ekeler, Montgomery, Edmonds, Drake, Scott WR: Lockett, D. Johnson, Boyd, Sutton, Cooks TE: Kelce

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2 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Team 3 (auction draft)- QB: Murray, RB: Swift, Davis, Edmonds, Drake WR: Allen, Thielen, Boyd, Anderson TE: Thomas

Why did you only get $100 for a draft budget when everyone else got $200?

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I like Drake this season also, I think in a ppr he’ll score more ff points then Jacobs.  

 

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Why did you only get $100 for a draft budget when everyone else got $200?

 

Interestingly enough that is a fair criticism. I only spent like 150 dollars because people were going nuts spending money on people. One guy got Mahomes, Cook, and Kelce but paid 170 dollars combined for them so his team is super top heavy. Pretty much 90% of the guys in the league went for a fairly considerable amount of money over their auction value. I am weaker at running back there but in an auction draft you either bid through the teeth for them or try to stack up 2 and 3 guy options. If Swift is healthy I like my guys there to a small degree. 

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14 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I only spent like 150 dollars because people were going nuts spending money on people.

"If they're going crazy spending money, I'll show them--I won't spend mine!"

Probly not the best strategy, but live and learn.

In my auction last night, I got Mahomes, Henry, Mixon, Hopkins and Lamb--for comparison's sake.

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3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

"If they're going crazy spending money, I'll show them--I won't spend mine!"

Probly not the best strategy, but live and learn.

In my auction last night, I got Mahomes, Henry, Mixon, Hopkins and Lamb--for comparison's sake.

 

My strategy was not I won't spend money. My strategy was more- I knew guys I wanted at spots and chose to spend my money there. For example, I used the FantasyPros auction value chart for my draft. Running backs at the top stayed pretty close to value with some mild going over.

CMC was 72 and went for 73.. Cook was 68 and went for 73. Kamara was 55 and went for 68. Jones was 49 and went for 50. Chubb was 47 and went for 55. Barkley was 46 and went for 54. 

My guys in Swift, Davis, Edmonds, and Drake were valued in order at 31 (got him for 14), 21 (got him for 6), 19 (got him for 10), 8 (got him for 7). So essentially in a 12 team draft I got the very last running back I valued in Swift (an upper tier RB 2), 2 back end RB2, and a lottery ticket in Drake for 37 dollars. The guy who got Dalvin Cook for 73 has James Connor, Trey Sermon, and Lindsey...so he has a top guy but then two 3rd tier guys and a 4th tier guy. That is a lot of stock in Cook.

I underpaid for Kyler Murray. I paid over for Allen a little but even receivers went nuts. Tyreek Hill went for 64 dollars. Adams went for 60. Diggs went for 56. Receivers at the top were regularly going for 20 dollars over their value. I sat it out and took the guys I did. Saw no need to super overpay for receivers considering the depth at the position. 

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17 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

CMC was 72 and went for 73.. Cook was 68 and went for 73. Kamara was 55 and went for 68. Jones was 49 and went for 50. Chubb was 47 and went for 55. Barkley was 46 and went for 54. 

My guys in Swift, Davis, Edmonds, and Drake were valued in order at 31 (got him for 14), 21 (got him for 6), 19 (got him for 10), 8 (got him for 7). So essentially in a 12 team draft I got the very last running back I valued in Swift (an upper tier RB 2), 2 back end RB2, and a lottery ticket in Drake for 37 dollars. The guy who got Dalvin Cook for 73 has James Connor, Trey Sermon, and Lindsey...so he has a top guy but then two 3rd tier guys and a 4th tier guy. That is a lot of stock in Cook.

I underpaid for Kyler Murray. I paid over for Allen a little but even receivers went nuts. Tyreek Hill went for 64 dollars. Adams went for 60. Diggs went for 56. Receivers at the top were regularly going for 20 dollars over their value. I sat it out and took the guys I did. Saw no need to super overpay for receivers considering the depth at the position. 

AAVs are even more useless than ADPs.  Auction values depend on a lot of factors--how soon a player is nominated, how many people have interest in a player, how many players are left on the board at that perceived tier level, etc.  if you go in thinking you're not going to spend more on any player than their suggested value, then you're going to end up with a cellar-dwelling team such as your own.  Hey, you got VALUES!  You only spent $150 of your $200!  Yay!

Um, that's not a good thing...

Values are only good when they are on players that will help your team.

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Someone who doesn't understand statistics and mathematical probabilities would say AAV's are useless. And of course auction values depend on numerous factors but AAV gives you a solid baseline of what a going rate is for someone. Imagine trying to buy a car, looking up the KBB rate of that car and seeing it was 2000 and then going in and saying "I'll give you 4,000." Or buying a house and finding the estimated value of said house to be 300,000 and then getting into a bidding war and buying it for 450,000 just because.

You have to know what your limits are and you have to try and create depth. I certainly wasn't going into the auction draft trying to not spend all my money. In fact, I've always spent all my money.  However, when wide receivers are going consistently for 20-25 dollars over their market value that is completely idiotic to get into a bidding war for them in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft. Your position seems to indicate that it's okay to overpay for receivers by 20 dollars because they are a scarcity. They aren't. To put it further. The difference between Hill and Allen is 55 points on the season at ESPN.com. The person who paid 64 basically paid 1 dollar for every 5 points. I paid 1 dollar for 8 points. Overall- the guy who got Mahomes, Cook, and Kelce for 173 dollars is loaded up top....but has no depth. His receivers are Chark, Jeudy, Gallup. For his top 3 guys he paid 1 dollar for every 6 points. I paid 1 dollar for every 12 points on my team over the course of the season. My value is higher and my depth is better. Yes week to week it will look rough because guys can max out like crazy but my consistency in score will be there week to week. Furthermore- I paid 19 dollars for Kyler Murray, he paid 44 for Patrick Mahomes. The projected point total difference on ESPN on the season is 13 points. I paid less than half of what he did for a quarterback that is almost equal in fantasy value. And because I was below on some of my values I could get a backup QB in Lamar Jackson for 19 dollars as well. His backup is Trevor Lawrence at 3 dollars. So I bought 2 qb's that I can either mix and match all year or turn one into a valuable top tier running back/wide receiver for less than he paid for Mahomes.  Plus I got 3-4 receivers that are like 90-100 catches for good value. 

 

You are wrong on this

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Antonio Gibson

Matthew Stafford

M Callaway ( in dynasty and drafts before preseason, I did not take him at all after preseason started)

Damien Harris

Brandon cooks

Tyrell Williams

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22 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Someone who doesn't understand statistics and mathematical probabilities would say AAV's are useless. And of course auction values depend on numerous factors but AAV gives you a solid baseline of what a going rate is for someone. Imagine trying to buy a car, looking up the KBB rate of that car and seeing it was 2000 and then going in and saying "I'll give you 4,000." Or buying a house and finding the estimated value of said house to be 300,000 and then getting into a bidding war and buying it for 450,000 just because.

You have to know what your limits are and you have to try and create depth. I certainly wasn't going into the auction draft trying to not spend all my money. In fact, I've always spent all my money.  However, when wide receivers are going consistently for 20-25 dollars over their market value that is completely idiotic to get into a bidding war for them in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft. Your position seems to indicate that it's okay to overpay for receivers by 20 dollars because they are a scarcity. They aren't. To put it further. The difference between Hill and Allen is 55 points on the season at ESPN.com. The person who paid 64 basically paid 1 dollar for every 5 points. I paid 1 dollar for 8 points. Overall- the guy who got Mahomes, Cook, and Kelce for 173 dollars is loaded up top....but has no depth. His receivers are Chark, Jeudy, Gallup. For his top 3 guys he paid 1 dollar for every 6 points. I paid 1 dollar for every 12 points on my team over the course of the season. My value is higher and my depth is better. Yes week to week it will look rough because guys can max out like crazy but my consistency in score will be there week to week. Furthermore- I paid 19 dollars for Kyler Murray, he paid 44 for Patrick Mahomes. The projected point total difference on ESPN on the season is 13 points. I paid less than half of what he did for a quarterback that is almost equal in fantasy value. And because I was below on some of my values I could get a backup QB in Lamar Jackson for 19 dollars as well. His backup is Trevor Lawrence at 3 dollars. So I bought 2 qb's that I can either mix and match all year or turn one into a valuable top tier running back/wide receiver for less than he paid for Mahomes.  Plus I got 3-4 receivers that are like 90-100 catches for good value. 

 

You are wrong on this

As the draft goes on, your bid dollars are worth less and less, so theoretically, I would think you should overbid for guys as the tiers start to empty and you haven't spent money.

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31 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Someone who doesn't understand statistics and mathematical probabilities would say AAV's are useless.

In this case, a person who has a Master of Science degree (and the concomitant slate of statistical and mathematical courses that go with it), who also happened to be #1 in the state of Kansas in mathematics back in the 70s, is saying it.

If the math cred doesn't sway you, consider also that you're talking to Axe Elf, one of the greatest fantasy football minds to ever stomp the terra.  Then look at your team, and the fact that you only spent $150 of your $200 budget, and then consider if you want to continue.

36 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Your position seems to indicate that it's okay to overpay for receivers by 20 dollars because they are a scarcity.

Not because they are a scarcity, but because that's what the market value was set at by your draft.  That's why AAVs are useless, because if everyone in your draft is determined to pay $10 over AAV for the studs, then you're either going to have to adjust to that strategy--or go into the season without any studs, as you have chosen to do.  You stood by your principles at the cost of your team.

Live and learn.

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2 hours ago, nobody said:

As the draft goes on, your bid dollars are worth less and less, so theoretically, I would think you should overbid for guys as the tiers start to empty and you haven't spent money.

As I said though- I had Swift as a back end of the first round guy/top of the second guy based off of my rankings. So for me I was at a point where I wanted him. I did outbid guys for Allen and Thielen because I wanted to lock in guys at that tier of receivers after the guys at the top went for crazy numbers. Basically, I sat out a few rounds to suss the values and then jumped in on guys at spots I wanted and dudes couldn't touch them money wise because they didn't have money to spend. And again- having Jackson to back up Murray was a luxury I could take to give my team extra trade value that I can use for RB. 

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4 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

And again- having Jackson to back up Murray was a luxury I could take to give my team extra trade value that I can use for RB.

LOL

So you're one of those guys who drafts four QBs and then thinks you can trade these players with the same value as a K or a D for Derrick Henry and Tyreek Hill.

Love you guys!  (And so does the Axe Elf Christmas Fund!)

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2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

In this case, a person who has a Master of Science degree (and the concomitant slate of statistical and mathematical courses that go with it), who also happened to be #1 in the state of Kansas in mathematics back in the 70s, is saying it.

If the math cred doesn't sway you, consider also that you're talking to Axe Elf, one of the greatest fantasy football minds to ever stomp the terra.  Then look at your team, and the fact that you only spent $150 of your $200 budget, and then consider if you want to continue.

Not because they are a scarcity, but because that's what the market value was set at by your draft.  That's why AAVs are useless, because if everyone in your draft is determined to pay $10 over AAV for the studs, then you're either going to have to adjust to that strategy--or go into the season without any studs, as you have chosen to do.  You stood by your principles at the cost of your team.

Live and learn.

1st off- I've done plenty of auction drafts and my strategy never has failed me off the draft since I developed it. So thanks.

2nd off- you are ignoring variables that may have been in play for me which I've tried to explain. But I'll try again- 8 of the first 10 receivers in the draft went for well over their slotted value I had. When I saw that I decided to lay back a little and focus in on guys who I could get for less money but roughly equal catches. I overpaid for a few receivers but got the guys I targeted. Once I saw all the running backs were down to what I was comfortable with I grabbed the next three guys within 7 picks of each other. It wasn't a concerted effort to not spend money- as much as it was adjusting off of the draft as it was playing out. Case in point- I grabbed Robby Anderson in the last round for 2 dollars. His value was 7 dollars. I didn't have to pay up and I have a guy who is a borderline wide receiver 2 in a 12 team league as my 4th guy in the draft and he might play more for me than Boyd at my 3rd spot. Allen is a #1 receiver in a 12 team league and Thielen is a borderline #1 in the same league. I paid up for them to make sure I locked them in.

3rd off- The flow of the draft dictated my spending. I didn't want to pay 55 dollars for Nick Chubb early when I liked some guys I thought I could get a little bit later. Obviously in hindsight knowing I could have still spent up to get like Gibson or Mixon as opposed to Davis and Edmonds I would but you can't operate like that. Any draft I go in with my own level of tiers where I want to settle. I stayed a little lower at running back by chance, not by choice.

Basically- I didn't set out in the draft to not spend money. The draft flow pushed it that way with the crazy up bidding. 

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Just now, Sean Mooney said:

I've done plenty of auction drafts and my strategy never has failed me off the draft since I developed it.

Welp, you can't say THAT any longer.

And no matter how many times you repeat nonsense, it remains nonsense.

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10 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

LOL

So you're one of those guys who drafts four QBs and then thinks you can trade these players with the same value as a K or a D for Derrick Henry and Tyreek Hill.

Love you guys!  (And so does the Axe Elf Christmas Fund!)

 

To be clear- I'm not looking to trade anybody and I would never waste somebody's time to ask them for Henry in a deal like that. But a guy who is going to potentially be a top 3 or top point scorer at QB is still going to carry value to people. I might not get equal value back but if I can get depth at spots then he served his purpose to me.

And despite what you think- my fantasy credentials are pretty solid. Besides- any person who thinks a season is over based off a draft has zero respectability because a season is won just as much by the moves you make in season as the draft you put out. 

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2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Welp, you can't say THAT any longer.

And no matter how many times you repeat nonsense, it remains nonsense.

Guarantee that won't be the case.

Also, your auction draft you did and 5 guys you mentioned to prove your "intelligence" would've cost 233 dollars in my auction. So see- values matter when you go into things because I'd have never been able to pull that top 5 off based off of the auction values that were set in the league. By AAV I could've but by flow there was no chance. Again- it highlights the overpaying that people were doing.

 

That ain't nonsense- that's just fact. And FYI- I've won the last 4 auction leagues I've done under the same strategy. So I'm on a bit of a run. 

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7 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I might not get equal value back

Well, I guess if you're interested in trading for a second Kicker, having a spare QB could come in handy--but the only thing that's really "equal value" for a QB (outside of Ks and Ds) is another QB, or maybe a low-end TE.

9 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

any person who thinks a season is over based off a draft has zero respectability because a season is won just as much by the moves you make in season as the draft you put out

Irrelevant.  We're not rating your in-season management; we're rating your draft.

If you want to say, "It's ok that I forked my draft because I still have the season to fix it," fine--but it doesn't change the fact that you forked your draft.

6 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I've won the last 4 auction leagues I've done under the same strategy.

LOL

So in one breath you're telling me that the draft doesn't matter because in-season management is more important--and then you turn around and point to leagues you've won as validation of your drafting strategy!

10 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

By AAV I could've but by flow there was no chance.

And that brings us back to doe...  See how useless AAVs are?

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2 hours ago, tanatastic said:

I have Elijah Moore stashed on my bench. If Wilson is as good as I think, he could be a nice breakout.

Elijah Moore is set up for some garbage time raking, he has solid value IMO from where I'm assuming he was drafted.

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well, I guess if you're interested in trading for a second Kicker, having a spare QB could come in handy--but the only thing that's really "equal value" for a QB (outside of Ks and Ds) is another QB, or maybe a low-end TE.

Irrelevant.  We're not rating your in-season management; we're rating your draft.

If you want to say, "It's ok that I forked my draft because I still have the season to fix it," fine--but it doesn't change the fact that you forked your draft.

LOL

So in one breath you're telling me that the draft doesn't matter because in-season management is more important--and then you turn around and point to leagues you've won as validation of your drafting strategy!

And that brings us back to doe...  See how useless AAVs are?

God you are insufferably dense about this all. 

If you think Lamar or Murray would carry trade value of a kicker is silly.

In season management comes in because you declared the season over based off the draft which is laughably ignorant.

If having the #3 QB in fantasy, 2 strong RB 2's and 2 borderline 2's, a receiving corps of 3 of the top 25 receivers and a top 7 tight end is forking a draft that fine. But you are making an awful lot of assumptions and are devaluing the entirety of my running backs which is silly too considering your "expertise."

Never said the draft doesn't matter. I'm comfortable with the depth I have at RB and WR. I don't have a clear #1 but again the guy who paid 73 dollars for Cook backed him up with James Conner, Trey Sermon, and Phillip Lindsey. My grouping is Swift, Davis, Edmonds, and Drake. If you could play 4 running backs every week of the season guess who scores more points- and it isn't really all that close. Even the guy who bought Najee Harris, Helare, Chubb and Singletary is only projected for 70 more points than me at RB- spent more, and is significantly weaker at WR. Basically I created a squad that has more paths to points matchup wise. That's how this math stuff works.

 

And again you don't understand how AAV's are valuable. That's a you problem

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13 minutes ago, rallo said:

Elijah Moore is set up for some garbage time raking, he has solid value IMO from where I'm assuming he was drafted.

Yeah- a bad team, somebody has to catch the ball

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5 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

If you think Lamar or Murray would carry trade value of a kicker is silly.

I know, but I was rounding up to give you the benefit of the doubt.  I mean not a TOP Kicker, but a Graham Gano maybe.

6 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

In season management comes in because you declared the season over based off the draft which is laughably ignorant.

I did?  Please quote that...   Making up something and then attacking that instead of the axual issue is a logical fallacy called a "strawman" argument.

10 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

If having the #3 QB in fantasy, 2 strong RB 2's and 2 borderline 2's, a receiving corps of 3 of the top 25 receivers and a top 7 tight end is forking a draft that fine.

It's not, but that description bears little to no resemblance to your team, so that would be another kind of strawman argument.

12 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

But you are making an awful lot of assumptions and are devaluing the entirety of my running backs which is silly too considering your "expertise."

The only assumption I'm making is that ADP will bear some resemblance to the end-of-season standings.

And the question of expertise is silenced by noting that I'm Axe Elf.

 

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Nice that AxeElf found a kindred spirit, kept those draft results coming

Everybody loves them. 🤔

oh by the way, got stock in Callaway NO and Edwards LV

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I did?  Please quote that...   Making up something and then attacking that instead of the axual issue is a logical fallacy called a "strawman" argument.

It's not, but that description bears little to no resemblance to your team, so that would be another kind of strawman argument.

 

Saying "live and learn" is essentially saying the season is cooked. C'mon man- you know that.

I would suggest you look at the season projections on ESPN.com and then note it is a 12 team league I was in.

Murray- 3rd

Swift- 16th, Edmonds- 21st, Davis- 26th, Drake- 31st. (So 2 RB 2's, a borderline #2 and an RB 3- so I was ever so slightly off)

Allen- 10th, Thielen- 16th, Anderson- 24th, Boyd- 31st (So a WR 1 and 2 WR 2s and a mid tier WR 3- but still- 3 top 25)

Thomas- 7th

No lies detected and certainly not a strawman.

 

I will give you some points for the Gumby skit.

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3 minutes ago, jeffkomlo said:

Nice that AxeElf found a kindred spirit, kept those draft results coming

Everybody loves them. 🤔

oh by the way, got stock in Callaway NO and Edwards LV

 

Callaway is good stock this year. 

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22 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Saying "live and learn" is essentially saying the season is cooked. C'mon man- you know that.

To those with a modicum of reading comprehension, "live and learn" was in reference to your errant draft strategy, which I had just described.

22 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I would suggest you look at the season projections on ESPN.com and then note it is a 12 team league I was in.

Season projections by anyone other than Axe Elf mean less to me than AAVs.

You don't have two "strong" RBs for a 12 team league.

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8 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You don't have two "strong" RBs for a 12 team league.

 

The fact that you have gone to "strawman" when there isn't one and playing semantics lets me know you are beaten.

 

Here is an accurate depiction of me finishing you

Finish him

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55 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

 

The fact that you have gone to "strawman" when there isn't one and playing semantics lets me know you are beaten.

 

Here is an accurate depiction of me finishing you

Finish him

Alrightythen.  I guess we're done here, since reality has been breached.

Less than 24 hours to the start of "Oh Wow, Axe Elf Was Right All Along" season, giving reality a chance to get back in the game.

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2 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

God you are insufferably dense about this all. 

If you think Lamar or Murray would carry trade value of a kicker is silly.

In season management comes in because you declared the season over based off the draft which is laughably ignorant.

If having the #3 QB in fantasy, 2 strong RB 2's and 2 borderline 2's, a receiving corps of 3 of the top 25 receivers and a top 7 tight end is forking a draft that fine. But you are making an awful lot of assumptions and are devaluing the entirety of my running backs which is silly too considering your "expertise."

Never said the draft doesn't matter. I'm comfortable with the depth I have at RB and WR. I don't have a clear #1 but again the guy who paid 73 dollars for Cook backed him up with James Conner, Trey Sermon, and Phillip Lindsey. My grouping is Swift, Davis, Edmonds, and Drake. If you could play 4 running backs every week of the season guess who scores more points- and it isn't really all that close. Even the guy who bought Najee Harris, Helare, Chubb and Singletary is only projected for 70 more points than me at RB- spent more, and is significantly weaker at WR. Basically I created a squad that has more paths to points matchup wise. That's how this math stuff works.

 

And again you don't understand how AAV's are valuable. That's a you problem

Don’t use the Lords name in vain.  

Thanks

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I know "just a kicker," but Daniel Carlson.  He was the #3 kicker in my league last year and was super consistent, and plays in Vegas, and seems like he's going undrafted in some leagues.

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