What Do You Need On Monday Night - Week 3

[AxeElf 787]

This was a pretty good week for Axe Elf, even by Axe Elf standards, with the potential to be an outstanding week.  None of my 16 H2H matchups will be official until after MNF, but I have a reasonable chance of posting a perfect undefeated 16-0 this week if everything goes my way.  Here's what has to happen, from what I perceive to be the most difficult to the least difficult, for me to clinch 16 wins on Monday night.

League 1:  CeeDee Lamb must score at least 22.0 (half-PPR).

League 2:  Greg Zuerlein must score less than 8.5 (fractional FG scoring, 0.1 pts per yd).

League 3:  CeeDee Lamb must outscore Tony Pollard by at least 6.6 (PPR).

League 4:  CeeDee Lamb must score at least 13.6 (half-PPR).

League 5:  Miles Sanders + Greg Zuerlein cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 10.7 (half-PPR).

League 6:  Jalen Hurts cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 11.6 (PPR).

League 7:  Jalen Hurts + Quez Watkins cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 21.1 (PPR, 6 pt pass TDs).

League 8:  Jalen Hurts + Ezekiel Elliott cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 27.4 (PPR; 1 pt per 20 yds passing).

League 9:  Jalen Hurts + Dallas Goedert + Greg Zuerlein cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 39.1 (half-PPR).

League 10:  CeeDee Lamb must outscore Greg Zuerlein by at least 2.3 (half-PPR).

League 11:  Tony Pollard cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 23.8 (half-PPR).

League 12:  The Dallas Cowboys DST cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb + Ezekiel Elliott by more than 10.0 (PPR).

League 13:  Jalen Hurts cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 41.5 (PPR, 6 pt pass TDs).

League 14:  Dak Prescott + Amari Cooper cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 59.55 (PPR, 1 pt per 20 yds passing, 6 pt pass TDs).

League 15:  Dak Prescott + Ezekiel Elliott + CeeDee Lamb + Greg Zuerlein have to score at least 9.75 (half-PPR).

League 16:  CeeDee Lamb cannot score fewer than -63 points (half-PPR).  I know, it SEEMS like a lock that he won't have 32 lost fumbles, but apparently this could happen in 1 out of 100 contests, because my opponent still has a 1% chance of winning, according to the Yahoo matchup projector.  It ain't over 'til it's over.

[jrbdmb 28]

I need a scoring adjustment, since at this point I lost Week 3 105.54 to 105.48.

(One yard rushing or receiving, or two yards passing would do it.)

[makindollaz 40]

4 of my 5 leagues are pretty much decided.

In the one that’s not I don’t necessarily need D. Smith to have a great game, but I need him to at least not be invisible.  On the other side I need to Dak not to hurt me too much.  300 and a couple of TD’s I could survive, but if he goes for more than that, could be in trouble unless Smith goes off too.

[wolves111 69]

5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

This was a pretty good week for Axe Elf, even by Axe Elf standards, with the potential to be an outstanding week.  None of my 16 H2H matchups will be official until after MNF, but I have a reasonable chance of posting a perfect undefeated 16-0 this week if everything goes my way.  Here's what has to happen, from what I perceive to be the most difficult to the least difficult, for me to clinch 16 wins on Monday night.

League 1:  CeeDee Lamb must score at least 22.0 (half-PPR).

League 2:  Greg Zuerlein must score less than 8.5 (fractional FG scoring, 0.1 pts per yd).

League 3:  CeeDee Lamb must outscore Tony Pollard by at least 6.6 (PPR).

League 4:  CeeDee Lamb must score at least 13.6 (half-PPR).

League 5:  Miles Sanders + Greg Zuerlein cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 10.7 (half-PPR).

League 6:  Jalen Hurts cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 11.6 (PPR).

League 7:  Jalen Hurts + Quez Watkins cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 21.1 (PPR, 6 pt pass TDs).

League 8:  Jalen Hurts + Ezekiel Elliott cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 27.4 (PPR; 1 pt per 20 yds passing).

League 9:  Jalen Hurts + Dallas Goedert + Greg Zuerlein cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 39.1 (half-PPR).

League 10:  CeeDee Lamb must outscore Greg Zuerlein by at least 2.3 (half-PPR).

League 11:  Tony Pollard cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 23.8 (half-PPR).

League 12:  The Dallas Cowboys DST cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb + Ezekiel Elliott by more than 10.0 (PPR).

League 13:  Jalen Hurts cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 41.5 (PPR, 6 pt pass TDs).

League 14:  Dak Prescott + Amari Cooper cannot outscore CeeDee Lamb by more than 59.55 (PPR, 1 pt per 20 yds passing, 6 pt pass TDs).

League 15:  Dak Prescott + Ezekiel Elliott + CeeDee Lamb + Greg Zuerlein have to score at least 9.75 (half-PPR).

League 16:  CeeDee Lamb cannot score fewer than -63 points (half-PPR).  I know, it SEEMS like a lock that he won't have 32 lost fumbles, but apparently this could happen in 1 out of 100 contests, because my opponent still has a 1% chance of winning, according to the Yahoo matchup projector.  It ain't over 'til it's over.

How's that 6000 yard and 50 td season guarantee for Mahomes working out?

[skinsrule05 30]

I need Cooper to get less then 14 points.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

I have Hurts plus a 10 point lead against Lamb and Goedert. 

[jackjohn 31]

Hurts and Lamb to outscore zeke by 22. 

[polecatt 399]

I simply need Dak to not have a monster, career game.

My opponent has him playing tonight, I have Ceedee Lamb and Zuerlein going.

I think it's quite unlikely that Dak has a monster game and Ceedee and the kicker don't have at least a decent amount of points

[Kopy 489]

16 leagues?

How long have you been doing this many? Do you ever get burnt out?

 

[weepaws 2,450]

Can’t count best ball as a real league, once you draft, there is no management needed. .

So doing best ball one can do 50 of them and have zero work to do after the draft. 

 

[Kopy 489]

30 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Can’t count best ball as a real league, once you draft, there is no management needed. .

So doing best ball one can do 50 of them and have zero work to do after the draft. 

 

Gotcha. So it's basically a mock draft. But you do play for a prize.

 

[weepaws 2,450]

Yea, it cost money, but best ball is fun, you draft usually around 20 players , doesn’t matter who one starts, they take the highest scorer from your team to set up your starting lineup.  

But no trades , no drops, no management.  

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, Kopy said:

16 leagues?

How long have you been doing this many? Do you ever get burnt out?

I have 16 managed leagues, and another 44 Best Ball leagues.  I don't really post about the Best Ball leagues, because I have no control over them, once they are drafted, but if you've been following the thread about my own personal leagues ("Had to Get One in Before Memorial Day"), I'll probly post about how they turned out at the end of the year, maybe a mid-season update or something.

This is just for my 16 managed leagues, and yes, poring through waivers, rejecting trades, setting lineups, etc. does all get tedious on Tuesdays, but it's for the love of the game.  I can usually do up to 20 leagues without much problem, but there have been a couple of years where I was up around 25-30 managed leagues that did really have me sick of fantasy football by the time December rolled around--but I doubt if I could ever go back to just doing a handful of leagues each year.

Best Ball leagues on the other hand give you all the fun of drafting, without the hangover of league management.  I used to say it was like birth control for fantasy football--but it's really more like a good adoption program, because you get to see how your "child" performs over the course of the season relative to the other teams drafted, where mock drafts are more like an abortion--you draft a beautiful team, and then it just dies and nobody ever hears from it again.  And of course with Best Ball leagues there's the additional perk of getting paid at the end of the year for drafting one of the best teams.

[AxeElf 787]

4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

How's that 6000 yard and 50 td season guarantee for Mahomes working out?

I wouldn't know.  I personally have never seen any guarantees in fantasy football.  If you're aware of one, perhaps you would be in a better position to address it.

He's currently on pace for 5701 total yards and 57 total TDs, though, so 6000 and 50 would certainly be on the table.  I think for myself, I would expect something closer to 6000 and 60.

[worm 34]

I need Amari to outscore Jalen Reagor by 12 pts (PPR).

[posty 2,295]

The Eagles and Cowboys play to a 0-0 tie as I hate both teams...  Plus I wouldn't be watching anyway...

[Ray_T 587]

in one league I have Sanders and a 23 point lead vs Zeke

 

[polecatt 399]

39 minutes ago, worm said:

I need Amari to outscore Jalen Reagor by 12 pts (PPR).

Amari comes to play against Philly when they play in Dallas. He's had over 100 yards in all 3 games, and probably his career best game in 2018, when he had 10 catches for 227 yds and 3 TDs.

He's just about been equally as bad on the road against them though, so be happy it's in Dallas tonight

[ZeroTolerance 582]

I need Amari to not get injured (worse). Already 3-0, but I'm up sh*t creek thanks to the worst injury luck in the league (punctuated by Gus and CMac). 

[purplengold47 27]

I need 2pts from Zeke tonight, I mean if he can't get 2pts, might as well hang myself.

[AxeElf 787]

23 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Amari comes to play against Philly when they play in Dallas.

 

13 minutes ago, ZeroTolerance said:

I need Amari to not get injured (worse). Already 3-0, but I'm up sh*t creek thanks to the worst injury luck in the league (punctuated by Gus and CMac). 

You guys realize Amari has been playing with cracked ribs since Week 1, right?

Might have to temper expectations a bit.

[polecatt 399]

19 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

You guys realize Amari has been playing with cracked ribs since Week 1, right?

Might have to temper expectations a bit.

He's not on the injury report this week, so hopefully he's a good bit better

[ZeroTolerance 582]

58 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

You guys realize Amari has been playing with cracked ribs since Week 1, right?

Might have to temper expectations a bit.

Hence the not get injured (worse). I've won this week, I only care about not losing my third starter in as many weeks. 

[rotisserieking 34]

Thanks to dismal performances by Lockett, Diggs, and Pitt's D, I'm up 22.7 in a 1/2 pt PPR.

I have Greg the leg but he has Lamb and Reagor. It's gonna be close.

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

He's not on the injury report this week, so hopefully he's a good bit better

Cracked Ribs take a while.

every hit hurts a ton.

Prob what he needs is to sit a couple weeks.   The fact hes playing speaks to his toughness.

but if the team gets a lead, I'd expect him to take a seat on the bench.

[wolves111 69]

4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I wouldn't know.  I personally have never seen any guarantees in fantasy football.  If you're aware of one, perhaps you would be in a better position to address it.

He's currently on pace for 5701 total yards and 57 total TDs, though, so 6000 and 50 would certainly be on the table.  I think for myself, I would expect something closer to 6000 and 60.

Well sir you're a liar. You ran your mouth the whole preseason. Own it like a man. If that's possible.

[AxeElf 787]

24 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Well sir you're a liar. You ran your mouth the whole preseason. Own it like a man. If that's possible.

You must have me confused with someone else.  Axe Elf has never run his mouth on this site, only his fingers, and Axe Elf has played fantasy football long enough to know that there are no guarantees, so he wouldn't be silly enough to offer one.

I did alert the community to the value of Mahomes' 6000/60 potential this season, but if you're looking for guarantees, you're looking to the wrong poster.

And if you call Axe Elf a liar, you have just become one.

[wolves111 69]

46 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You must have me confused with someone else.  Axe Elf has never run his mouth on this site, only his fingers, and Axe Elf has played fantasy football long enough to know that there are no guarantees, so he wouldn't be silly enough to offer one.

I did alert the community to the value of Mahomes' 6000/60 potential this season, but if you're looking for guarantees, you're looking to the wrong poster.

And if you call Axe Elf a liar, you have just become one.

It's ok Axe. You're comments are still entertaining at least. 

Sorry for judging you by stating the obvious.

[jerryskids 5,151]

6 hours ago, polecatt said:

I simply need Dak to not have a monster, career game.

My opponent has him playing tonight, I have Ceedee Lamb and Zuerlein going.

I think it's quite unlikely that Dak has a monster game and Ceedee and the kicker don't have at least a decent amount of points

I  need 32 pts from Dak, but I don't care if they all go to Lamb.   

[tanatastic 2,061]

Zeke and goedert to get less than 7 combined. 

[AxeElf 787]

Between CeeDee's missed teedees and all that Jalen Hurts garbage time production, I ended up losing SIX of those sixteen matchups... smh.

The one where the Quez Watkins and Hurts team beat my CeeDee team by 1.5 points was the most painful.

The Cowboys scoring 41 points and Zuerlein being held to 5 kinda made up for that one, though...

And even if CeeDee had scored both TDs, I still would have lost 2 of the games anyway, thanx to Hurts going crazy in the 4th Q.  Ce la vie.  Weird that I had to be facing Hurts in 5 out of 16 games (and Zuerlein in 4 out of 16).

[makindollaz 40]

23 hours ago, makindollaz said:

4 of my 5 leagues are pretty much decided.

In the one that’s not I don’t necessarily need D. Smith to have a great game, but I need him to at least not be invisible.  On the other side I need to Dak not to hurt me too much.  300 and a couple of TD’s I could survive, but if he goes for more than that, could be in trouble unless Smith goes off too.

So pretty much the perfect recipe of suck happened, and I lost 139.2 - 139.1.  One pass to Smith on the last 2 drives would have put me over.

[rotisserieking 34]

17 hours ago, rotisserieking said:

Thanks to dismal performances by Lockett, Diggs, and Pitt's D, I'm up 22.7 in a 1/2 pt PPR.

I have Greg the leg but he has Lamb and Reagor. It's gonna be close.

I cannot believe they put up 62 points combined and Reagor and Lamb did nothing. Holy crap did I eek out a nasty win. Pretty sure my opponent is cursing Hollywood Brown and his 3 critical drops, 2 of which were probably TDs.