Rostering 2 WR from the same team?

[Fearsome 22]

What are your thoughts on rostering two receivers from the same team? I am a Chris Godwin owner in a 10-team, non-PPR, WR/TE flex league and Antonio Brown was dropped when he went on COVID IR. Brown is the highest rated free agent WR available. Considering dropping Mark Andrews (or Fields) for Brown (or OBJ who is also available). Thanks!

[Brutal Brutus 182]

Upside will be limited. I wouldn't drop Andrews, Fields can probably be dropped safely in all 10 team, 1Qb leagues. 

[AxeElf 787]

OBJ for Fields would probably be the better option.

[killerpopcorn 7]

Fields would be my drop. I'm in a 2qb league and he isn't even worth starting IMO, TE depth seems worse then RB's this year. I would keep Andrews as you can plug and play him in a flex as well incase of emergency's. 

[Einstein's Dog 20]

A couple of thoughts. 1. No way you drop a top 5 TE in M Andrews. So Fields it is, he's junk.

You mention it's a 10 team league so I assume you are not looking at starting either OBJ or A Brown. In that case I think A Brown offers more value because then if either Brown or Godwin get injured the remaining WR increases in value.

[weepaws 2,452]

Fields for AB.  

[Ray_T 587]

as far as having both on your roster, I see no huge issue with it.

If hes the best guy on your wire, you take him.

as for starting both......   it can be complicated.

Essentially what you are doing is tying your teams production to that team.

in this case, however, it plays out a bit different.   Tampa has (in my opinion) too many mouths to feed.   There are gonna be games where one of the 3 WR's or Gronk will have a subpar game.  So starting both can be both risky and highly rewarding.

That being said, there are times where it makes sense to do such a thing.....

if you are playing someone who maybe got a huge game from one or two players in the Thursday night game.  Maybe you roll the dice and play both Tampa WR's and hope Brady has a huge game (especially if the matchup looks good)

So there are times when it can be useful.  it could be a really sweet hail mary.

In games where you expect to win, I'd likely just start the one unless injury or lineup issues force you to.

Either way, good luck.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

9 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Tampa has (in my opinion) too many mouths to feed.

Don't get caught up in this failed narrative.  It was proven wrong 2 years ago and proven wrong again last year.  It's about volume.  There isn't an issue when you throw the ball more than 40 times a game.  Right now, Tampa's throwing 47.

Cleveland is throwing it 32 times.  In 21 games (I'm not counting game 7 last year where he played 2 snaps), with the Browns and Mayfield as his QB, OBJ is averaging 4.2 receptions for 57.1yards and 0.29 TDs per game, equating to 11.66 fpg... in the OP's case, it's a non-PPR league, so now you're looking at 7.4 fpg.  Is that what you want from your flex?  Maybe.

After Tampa's bye week last year (Week 13), this is Browns' weekly non-PPR scores (including the playoffs)...

• 4.9
• 15.3
• 9.5
• 25.8
• 10.9
• 1.0
• 8.2
• 18.1
• 1.7  

He's averaging 10.6 fpg (3.2 more than OBJ), and he failed to get at least 8 points in 3 of his 9 games (one-third), of his games in Tampa.  OBJ failed to get at least 8 points in 13 of his 21 games (about two-thirds).

Tampa does not run the ball, and they won't.  Yes, Tampa is on pace to throw 800 passes this season and no, that won't continue.  But, they will throw the ball 700+ times.  Last year they threw it 626.  Even if they go back to 39 attempts per game (like last year), for the rest of the season, that's still 687 attempts (if they average 42 attempts the rest of the season, that's 729 attempts).  Mayfield will probably throw 150 less times than that.  Tampa doesn't even have a goal line run game, it's short passes.  Of Brady's 10 TD's, 5 of them are 5 yards or less.

 

I know, there'll be "cherry picking" claims by some for me using stats after Tampa's bye week for Brown, but I don't care.  It's obvious to everyone that Tampa's offense was different after their bye week than it was before, due to the lack of offseason and Brown joining the team after Week 8.

[Fearsome 22]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Don't get caught up in this failed narrative.  It was proven wrong 2 years ago and proven wrong again last year.  It's about volume.  There isn't an issue when you throw the ball more than 40 times a game.  Right now, Tampa's throwing 47.

Cleveland is throwing it 32 times.  In 21 games (I'm not counting game 7 last year where he played 2 snaps), with the Browns and Mayfield as his QB, OBJ is averaging 4.2 receptions for 57.1yards and 0.29 TDs per game, equating to 11.66 fpg... in the OP's case, it's a non-PPR league, so now you're looking at 7.4 fpg.  Is that what you want from your flex?  Maybe.

After Tampa's bye week last year (Week 13), this is Browns' weekly non-PPR scores (including the playoffs)...

• 4.9
• 15.3
• 9.5
• 25.8
• 10.9
• 1.0
• 8.2
• 18.1
• 1.7  

He's averaging 10.6 fpg (3.2 more than OBJ), and he failed to get at least 8 points in 3 of his 9 games (one-third), of his games in Tampa.  OBJ failed to get at least 8 points in 13 of his 21 games (about two-thirds).

Tampa does not run the ball, and they won't.  Yes, Tampa is on pace to throw 800 passes this season and no, that won't continue.  But, they will throw the ball 700+ times.  Last year they threw it 626.  Even if they go back to 39 attempts per game (like last year), for the rest of the season, that's still 687 attempts (if they average 42 attempts the rest of the season, that's 729 attempts).  Mayfield will probably throw 150 less times than that.  Tampa doesn't even have a goal line run game, it's short passes.  Of Brady's 10 TD's, 5 of them are 5 yards or less.

 

I know, there'll be "cherry picking" claims by some for me using stats after Tampa's bye week for Brown, but I don't care.  It's obvious to everyone that Tampa's offense was different after their bye week than it was before, due to the lack of offseason and Brown joining the team after Week 8.

This is a great post with some awesome information. That said, I dropped Fields and added OBJ. Now, based on this post, maybe I made a mistake! 

[cmh6476 748]

im doing it with kupp and woods

[JOHN 316 7]

I have Stafford, Kupp and Higbee. I'm 3-0 right now.

I was just offered a trade....receive R. Woods for my A. Robinson...

My other WR's are Mike Williams and Claypool

If I did't already have so many Rams, I'd probably give it more thought, but right now I think I should decline the trade.

Thoughts ?

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

47 minutes ago, Fearsome said:

This is a great post with some awesome information. That said, I dropped Fields and added OBJ. Now, based on this post, maybe I made a mistake! 

I don't necessarily think you made a mistake, I was simply commenting on (and justifying), the narrative of "too many mouths to feed".  It's faulty in Tampa.  That may be valid with other teams, but not with a coach who'd rather pass than run on "to go" plays of 3 yards and less.  When Tampa has 1 to 3 yards to go, Brady is 15 for 19 (in 3 games mind you), with 13 first downs.  He also has 2 rush attempts for 2 first downs and 1 TD.  Both Jones and Fournette have 4 rush attempts each in those situations.  I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that no other team has a 2:1 pass to run ratio in those situations (I wouldn't be surprised if KC was close to it though).

Specifically for OBJ, the Browns may not throw it as much, but right now Landry is banged up.  He only played 2 snaps in Week 2 and didn't play last week.  Beckham very well may get 8 to 10 (or more), targets every week until Landry is 100%.

[Ray_T 587]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Don't get caught up in this failed narrative.  It was proven wrong 2 years ago and proven wrong again last year.  It's about volume.  There isn't an issue when you throw the ball more than 40 times a game.  Right now, Tampa's throwing 47.

Cleveland is throwing it 32 times.  In 21 games (I'm not counting game 7 last year where he played 2 snaps), with the Browns and Mayfield as his QB, OBJ is averaging 4.2 receptions for 57.1yards and 0.29 TDs per game, equating to 11.66 fpg... in the OP's case, it's a non-PPR league, so now you're looking at 7.4 fpg.  Is that what you want from your flex?  Maybe.

After Tampa's bye week last year (Week 13), this is Browns' weekly non-PPR scores (including the playoffs)...

• 4.9
• 15.3
• 9.5
• 25.8
• 10.9
• 1.0
• 8.2
• 18.1
• 1.7  

He's averaging 10.6 fpg (3.2 more than OBJ), and he failed to get at least 8 points in 3 of his 9 games (one-third), of his games in Tampa.  OBJ failed to get at least 8 points in 13 of his 21 games (about two-thirds).

Tampa does not run the ball, and they won't.  Yes, Tampa is on pace to throw 800 passes this season and no, that won't continue.  But, they will throw the ball 700+ times.  Last year they threw it 626.  Even if they go back to 39 attempts per game (like last year), for the rest of the season, that's still 687 attempts (if they average 42 attempts the rest of the season, that's 729 attempts).  Mayfield will probably throw 150 less times than that.  Tampa doesn't even have a goal line run game, it's short passes.  Of Brady's 10 TD's, 5 of them are 5 yards or less.

 

I know, there'll be "cherry picking" claims by some for me using stats after Tampa's bye week for Brown, but I don't care.  It's obvious to everyone that Tampa's offense was different after their bye week than it was before, due to the lack of offseason and Brown joining the team after Week 8.

You know what? I really like this post.

good information.

as for the too many mouths to feed, I still think its true.  look at AB's stats above.   some really huge games, some duds.

My bet is most of those games where he got duds, at least one of the other WR (possibly 2) went off and had a big game.

The thing is.... in Tampa  I'd say there may only be a couple defenses in the NFL that have the ability to shut down this offense.   doesnt mean they will.  just means they have the talent to do so given the correct gameplan etc.

Some Teams will elect to shut down portions of the offense to limit the damage.   As a result, some weeks Evans will have a bad game, or Brown or maybe Gronk.  

Though as the third WR in this talented group, maybe AB is the guy left with single coverage all year long.

My point is that of the big 4  Evans, Gronk, AB, and Godwin, I figure one of those guys has a bad game most weeks.   some weeks it will be spread around and they all put up WR2 numbers.

all I'm saying is there is a risk associated with playing both at the same time.  That risk is that your fate is tied to the teams fate.

in the case of Tampa, most weeks, thats probably a good thing.   occasionally when they do actually get shut down(or have a bad week), thats a bad thing.

Either way, still love the post.  great info there.   the increased volume likely does mean this may be less of an issue than I thought but I dont think the issue truly goes away 100%.

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

54 minutes ago, JOHN 316 said:

I have Stafford, Kupp and Higbee. I'm 3-0 right now.

I was just offered a trade....receive R. Woods for my A. Robinson...

My other WR's are Mike Williams and Claypool

If I did't already have so many Rams, I'd probably give it more thought, but right now I think I should decline the trade.

Thoughts ?

Ppr? 

[JOHN 316 7]

9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Ppr? 

yes, ful ppr

[weepaws 2,452]

Woods is avg two more points per game a this time, I’ll take Woods. Even though you own Kupp. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

You know what? I really like this post.

good information.

as for the too many mouths to feed, I still think its true.  look at AB's stats above.   some really huge games, some duds.

My bet is most of those games where he got duds, at least one of the other WR (possibly 2) went off and had a big game.

The thing is.... in Tampa  I'd say there may only be a couple defenses in the NFL that have the ability to shut down this offense.   doesnt mean they will.  just means they have the talent to do so given the correct gameplan etc.

Some Teams will elect to shut down portions of the offense to limit the damage.   As a result, some weeks Evans will have a bad game, or Brown or maybe Gronk.  

Though as the third WR in this talented group, maybe AB is the guy left with single coverage all year long.

My point is that of the big 4  Evans, Gronk, AB, and Godwin, I figure one of those guys has a bad game most weeks.   some weeks it will be spread around and they all put up WR2 numbers.

all I'm saying is there is a risk associated with playing both at the same time.  That risk is that your fate is tied to the teams fate.

in the case of Tampa, most weeks, thats probably a good thing.   occasionally when they do actually get shut down(or have a bad week), thats a bad thing.

Either way, still love the post.  great info there.   the increased volume likely does mean this may be less of an issue than I thought but I dont think the issue truly goes away 100%.

I agree with everything you said if your argument for any Bucs WR as being a WR1, then the "too many mouths to feed" argument is fair.  Because of that, no one is expecting them to be WR1's... most are thinking WR2 or WR3.

Last year, the #18 WR (DJ Moore - of WR's who played at least 12 games), averaged 9.7 fpg in non-ppr scoring.  OBJ over his last 21 games (in Cleveland with Mayfield), averaged 7.4.  Now, the OP said he has Godwin, right?  I'm assuming that's as a WR2.  A mid-tier WR3 (WR30), last year... Cole Beasley averaged 8.4 fpg.  So, my argument would be, Antonio Browns 67% success rate of scoring at least 8 points over a 9-game sample is a better option than OBJ... regardless of how many WRs/options Tampa has.  If you see him as a WR3, then he's even more productive than a mid-WR3 like Cole Beasley.  Back to DJ Moore real quick, he scored at least 8 fantasy points in 8 of 15 games last year, right around half... that's slightly worse than Brown.  So the fact that Brown could crap the bed in a given week is fair, but it's the same argument that you can have about every other WR who's considered a WR2.  Here's the thing though... for the OP, Brown would be a WR3.  He would be getting similar weekly production as a WR2 for a WR3.  If he goes with a guy like Beckham, he's looking at WR3/4 production from his WR3.  Sure, that's about value, but why take that when you can get better?

Now, the OP plays in a 10-team league, so maybe the variables change.  The player who finished as WR15 (the middle WR2 in a 10-team league), was Allen Robinson.  He averaged 10.1 fpg last year (again, non-PPR like the OP's league).  Brown averaged 10.6 in his last 9 games... which would put him at WR11 last year (Godwin averaged 10.5).  Anyway, as noted, Brown had  6 of 9 games where he scored over 8 fantasy points.  Allen Robinson scored at least 8 fantasy points in 9 out of 16 games... slightly more than half.

Coincidentally, if we look at the same games that Brown and Godwin played after the Bucs bye week last year, you'll see that Godwin scored at least 8 fantasy points in 6 out of 9 games just like Brown.  So, you have both Godwin and Brown score at least 8 fpg in 67% of their games played while both Allen Robinson and DJ Moore were right around 55%.  Meaning, you were more likely to get more consistent WR2 production over that same time frame with Godwin and Brown than you would have if you had Robinson and Moore.

[Einstein's Dog 20]

11 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I agree with everything you said if your argument for any Bucs WR as being a WR1, then the "too many mouths to feed" argument is fair.  Because of that, no one is expecting them to be WR1's... most are thinking WR2 or WR3.

Last year, the #18 WR (DJ Moore - of WR's who played at least 12 games), averaged 9.7 fpg in non-ppr scoring.  OBJ over his last 21 games (in Cleveland with Mayfield), averaged 7.4.  Now, the OP said he has Godwin, right?  I'm assuming that's as a WR2.  A mid-tier WR3 (WR30), last year... Cole Beasley averaged 8.4 fpg.  So, my argument would be, Antonio Browns 67% success rate of scoring at least 8 points over a 9-game sample is a better option than OBJ... regardless of how many WRs/options Tampa has.  If you see him as a WR3, then he's even more productive than a mid-WR3 like Cole Beasley.  Back to DJ Moore real quick, he scored at least 8 fantasy points in 8 of 15 games last year, right around half... that's slightly worse than Brown.  So the fact that Brown could crap the bed in a given week is fair, but it's the same argument that you can have about every other WR who's considered a WR2.  Here's the thing though... for the OP, Brown would be a WR3.  He would be getting similar weekly production as a WR2 for a WR3.  If he goes with a guy like Beckham, he's looking at WR3/4 production from his WR3.  Sure, that's about value, but why take that when you can get better?

Now, the OP plays in a 10-team league, so maybe the variables change.  The player who finished as WR15 (the middle WR2 in a 10-team league), was Allen Robinson.  He averaged 10.1 fpg last year (again, non-PPR like the OP's league).  Brown averaged 10.6 in his last 9 games... which would put him at WR11 last year (Godwin averaged 10.5).  Anyway, as noted, Brown had  6 of 9 games where he scored over 8 fantasy points.  Allen Robinson scored at least 8 fantasy points in 9 out of 16 games... slightly more than half.

Coincidentally, if we look at the same games that Brown and Godwin played after the Bucs bye week last year, you'll see that Godwin scored at least 8 fantasy points in 6 out of 9 games just like Brown.  So, you have both Godwin and Brown score at least 8 fpg in 67% of their games played while both Allen Robinson and DJ Moore were right around 55%.  Meaning, you were more likely to get more consistent WR2 production over that same time frame with Godwin and Brown than you would have if you had Robinson and Moore.

And I would add that if you went further into the numbers you could see a spike in ABs fpg's when one of the other big 4 were hurt.  Assuming he is on the bench he would be a great backup if Godwin gets hurt.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

15 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

And I would add that if you went further into the numbers you could see a spike in ABs fpg's when one of the other big 4 were hurt.  Assuming he is on the bench he would be a great backup if Godwin gets hurt.

No you wouldn't.  Since Tampa's bye week last year, they've played 11 games.  In that period of time Godwin, Evans, and Gronk played in every game.  It's why I used the last 9... in which they all played together.  Brown is the only one to have miss games.

[Einstein's Dog 20]

9 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

No you wouldn't.  Since Tampa's bye week last year, they've played 11 games.  In that period of time Godwin, Evans, and Gronk played in every game.  It's why I used the last 9... in which they all played together.  Brown is the only one to have miss games.

That is from the limited small sample size you used.  Lets not pretend that Evans/Godwin/Gronk don't get hurt. And when they are hurt ABs value would rise.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

59 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

That is from the limited small sample size you used.  Lets not pretend that Evans/Godwin/Gronk don't get hurt. And when they are hurt ABs value would rise.

Evans, Godwin, Brown, and Gronk have only played in 13 games together and 9 since the bye week last year.  Now, that's the sample size for them, but that's not the sample size of the Bruce Arians offense.  Their offense is their offense regardless of the players.  Tampa uses a ton of 3WR sets and 11 personnel (66% since Week 14 last year).  Since Week 14, Tampa has had at least 3 WR's on the field in 70% of their plays.  Who those players are in Arians' offense is irrelevant.  When you specifically apply that to this Tampa team, that's Evans, Godwin, Brown, and Gronk.  Tampa will throw the ball 40 times a game.  So, the sample size being too small as you perceive, is irrelevant.  This is the game plan.  This is the offense.  Further proof that the players don't matter and that it's the system?  In 2019 with Evans, Godwin, Miller, and Howard as their 4 primary targets, Tampa used 3WR sets with 11 personnel 64% of the time.  They had at least 3 WR on the field in 66% of the time.  Different players, similar frequency.  It's even a slight uptick now than it was in 2019.

The fact that in the 9 games they've played together and both Godwin and Brown averaging over 10 fpg in a non-PPR league (and scoring at least 8 in 67% of those), is proof enough that those two can co-exist and produce.  Any one of the 4 being hurt is irrelevant because that can apply to every player in the league, regardless of what team they're on.  For example, if you have Allen Robinson and Keenan Allen on your roster... you have to replace one, don't you?  So what's the difference if those two played on the same team or not?

For the record, Evans also averages just over 10fpg in that time frame and Gronk is over 9.  So, in the last 9 games in which the 4 played together, you have Evans averaging 10.6, Godwin at 10.5, Brown at 10.4, and Gronk at 9.6 fpg.  Pretty even, don't ya think.  I will say this however, Evans and Gronk are the more volatile of the 4.  So if you're going to have 2, Godwin and Brown are the pair to have since their the most consistent.

 

Tampa has thrown the ball 141 times this season already.  Brady is on pace to throw for almost 6200 yards and 57 TD's.  Is he going to throw for that?  Most likely not, but he'll have big numbers.  I said at the beginning of the season, he'd throw for 5k+ and 50 TD.  If you take his weekly average from last year and apply it to this year you're looking at Brady throwing for 4000 yards and 35 TD's.  From a pass catching perspective, you're looking 43.5 points per week.  That's assuming they regress back to last years rate and don't continue on this years'.  If they continue at this pace, you're looking at 55.9 points per week.  Let's split the difference and call it 49.7.  Who's getting them?  Well, the numbers tell you it'll be about 64% (their target share in the 9 games they've played together), of that going to Evans, Godwin, and Brown.  That's 31.8 fpw.  What did I say the 3 average?  31.5. 

This is Tampa's offense.  This is what they do.  It's Bruce Arians' style.

[Ray_T 587]

On 9/30/2021 at 3:14 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

I agree with everything you said if your argument for any Bucs WR as being a WR1, then the "too many mouths to feed" argument is fair.  Because of that, no one is expecting them to be WR1's... most are thinking WR2 or WR3.

Last year, the #18 WR (DJ Moore - of WR's who played at least 12 games), averaged 9.7 fpg in non-ppr scoring.  OBJ over his last 21 games (in Cleveland with Mayfield), averaged 7.4.  Now, the OP said he has Godwin, right?  I'm assuming that's as a WR2.  A mid-tier WR3 (WR30), last year... Cole Beasley averaged 8.4 fpg.  So, my argument would be, Antonio Browns 67% success rate of scoring at least 8 points over a 9-game sample is a better option than OBJ... regardless of how many WRs/options Tampa has.  If you see him as a WR3, then he's even more productive than a mid-WR3 like Cole Beasley.  Back to DJ Moore real quick, he scored at least 8 fantasy points in 8 of 15 games last year, right around half... that's slightly worse than Brown.  So the fact that Brown could crap the bed in a given week is fair, but it's the same argument that you can have about every other WR who's considered a WR2.  Here's the thing though... for the OP, Brown would be a WR3.  He would be getting similar weekly production as a WR2 for a WR3.  If he goes with a guy like Beckham, he's looking at WR3/4 production from his WR3.  Sure, that's about value, but why take that when you can get better?

Now, the OP plays in a 10-team league, so maybe the variables change.  The player who finished as WR15 (the middle WR2 in a 10-team league), was Allen Robinson.  He averaged 10.1 fpg last year (again, non-PPR like the OP's league).  Brown averaged 10.6 in his last 9 games... which would put him at WR11 last year (Godwin averaged 10.5).  Anyway, as noted, Brown had  6 of 9 games where he scored over 8 fantasy points.  Allen Robinson scored at least 8 fantasy points in 9 out of 16 games... slightly more than half.

Coincidentally, if we look at the same games that Brown and Godwin played after the Bucs bye week last year, you'll see that Godwin scored at least 8 fantasy points in 6 out of 9 games just like Brown.  So, you have both Godwin and Brown score at least 8 fpg in 67% of their games played while both Allen Robinson and DJ Moore were right around 55%.  Meaning, you were more likely to get more consistent WR2 production over that same time frame with Godwin and Brown than you would have if you had Robinson and Moore.

well, some of these guys are drafted as WR1's in some leagues.

and if you drafted them as WR1's this will be an issue.   If you drafted them as WR2's .... less of an issue. 

once again... good analysis.   and knowing what we know about Tampa, lots of WR's on that roster will put up WR1 numbers. just not all the time.  Therefore you should be drafting them as WR2 as you have suggested or even WR3 if you can get away with it.

and at a WR2/WR3 level (in this case it looks like the second player was a WW pickup.  As a WR3/flex player, he delivers as good or better value than what would typically be expected in the open market.   a prudent manager picks him up and if he finds a problem with the situation, he should have no problem finding a market to trade them.

AB shouldnt be on the wire in any format, and if I had need of a fill in WR3 I couldnt think of a better player I could get if I could get him at a reasonable price.

 

[SF Forty Niners 22]

Took me to Two Championship Wins 

back to back with my 1,2,3 picks all from same team !

and of course some help from the forums 

 

drafted

Deshaun Watson , D Hopkins , Will Fuller 

in that order my league mates were laughing their ass off 

 

anyway keep laughing I got the Rings & Ca$H BB

 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

You drafted Watson in the first round ?

[SF Forty Niners 22]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

You drafted Watson in the first round ?

Yes on the turn picked up Hopkins the last championship 2019 both years waited til 4th Round to get RB