AJ Dillon Dynasty Upside

[scottybo 0]

What's your thoughts on AJ Dillon value in a dynasty league?

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

7 minutes ago, scottybo said:

What's your thoughts on AJ Dillon value in a dynasty league?

His value is virtually 0 to anyone other than the Aaron Jones owner, based on the Packers re-signing Jones.  Unless Jones gets hurt, he's not going anywhere until after the 2023 season, which is the year Dillion is an UFA.  You'll literally have to sit on him with no expectation of playing time for at least 2 more seasons.

[scottybo 0]

I own Jones as well.  So obviously looking to protect him.  But i do see some standalone value for a RB typically getting 10+ touches a week.  Then factor in if Rodgers is gone next year, will packers be more inclined to run it more?  Have an offer on the table of Kittle ($8) for Dillon ($1) and D Watson ($1).  Auction league $100 budget.

I'm intrigued as Kittle is a very frustrating player to own and dillon and watson do offer some upside but risks as well.  Been shopping Kittle and this is the best offer.

 

[polecatt 402]

40 minutes ago, scottybo said:

I own Jones as well.  So obviously looking to protect him.  But i do see some standalone value for a RB typically getting 10+ touches a week.  Then factor in if Rodgers is gone next year, will packers be more inclined to run it more?  Have an offer on the table of Kittle ($8) for Dillon ($1) and D Watson ($1).  Auction league $100 budget.

I'm intrigued as Kittle is a very frustrating player to own and dillon and watson do offer some upside but risks as well.  Been shopping Kittle and this is the best offer.

 

Watson would put you in about the same boat as DIllon.

That is waiting a season or more to get any sort of return. Watson isn't playing this season, and from the looks of things, not being able to settle out of court, I think he's gonna miss most of next season too. He has criminal investigations, so he could be gone for a while.

Keep Kittle.

[weepaws 2,459]

I would let Kittle go and easily take the deal. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

22 hours ago, scottybo said:

I own Jones as well.  So obviously looking to protect him.  But i do see some standalone value for a RB typically getting 10+ touches a week.  Then factor in if Rodgers is gone next year, will packers be more inclined to run it more?  Have an offer on the table of Kittle ($8) for Dillon ($1) and D Watson ($1).  Auction league $100 budget.

I'm intrigued as Kittle is a very frustrating player to own and dillon and watson do offer some upside but risks as well.  Been shopping Kittle and this is the best offer.

 

It's a deal I would do, but I'd wait.  Kittle's value isn't going to go down, it's at it's lowest.  Kittle is supposed to be back this week or next week, right?  Give it time.  If he has 2 or 3 big games, his value could be a lot higher.

I'm not so sure the Packers will be a running team without Rodgers, that's not the offense they run.  That's not the kind of QB Love is.  I don't think the Packers offensive philosophy will change.  Sure, the Packers may also lose Davante Adams, but Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Allen Robinson, and Mike Williams are also going to be free agents next year.  The Packers will have the opportunity to replace Adams.  I don't see how Dillon being a viable option unless Jones gets hurt.  I have Dillon in my keeper league, only because Jones may get hurt.

Now, that being said... if your QB situation going forward is very bleak, as in your QB is Baker Mayfield, then I'd do the deal now.  Watson will be back next year, somewhere, and he'll put up numbers.  Otherwise, I'd wait.  There's no harm in waiting to see if Kittle could have a few big weeks and maybe a team in the running for the playoffs may over pay for him.

[scottybo 0]

trade deadline is this week   Contending teams this year already have Waller,  Andrews, Goedert, Fant/Schultz, Higbee.  Higbee team was only team interested.  So decided to do it.  

Ultimate rationale was:

• Protect Jones in case of major injury
• Watson is a pure lottery ticket
• Save $7 going into the draft next year, which can be used to replace TE or upgrade another position

Next year, my team going into the draft right now looks like:

QB - Watson
RB,  Jones, Dobbins, Dillon
WR - PIttman, Waddle, Jeudy

Potential Keepers
Allen Robinson - depends on where he ends up
Bryan Edwards - does he show enough with suggs gone.

 

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

9 minutes ago, scottybo said:

trade deadline is this week   Contending teams this year already have Waller,  Andrews, Goedert, Fant/Schultz, Higbee.  Higbee team was only team interested.  So decided to do it.  

Ultimate rationale was:

• Protect Jones in case of major injury
• Watson is a pure lottery ticket
• Save $7 going into the draft next year, which can be used to replace TE or upgrade another position

Next year, my team going into the draft right now looks like:

QB - Watson
RB,  Jones, Dobbins, Dillon
WR - PIttman, Waddle, Jeudy

Potential Keepers
Allen Robinson - depends on where he ends up
Bryan Edwards - does he show enough with suggs gone.

Because of the deadline, I think you made the right choice.  You can't count on Kittle, at least Watson has future upside and you handcuffed Jones.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

My keeper league's trade deadline is late, Week 12.  In my league, everyone's in the playoff hunt at this point.  The team with the worst record is only 2 games out of the last playoff spot, so no one is really in the "trade" mode at this point because there's no real sellers.  There'll likely be separation by Week 11, so we usually see 2 or 3 trades that week and the week after, at the deadline.

[scottybo 0]

yeah this league, our trade deadline is always around the NFL trade deadline.   Makes you have to choose rebuild early or wait and see but then its too late to trade.   My team is middle of the pack but lowest scoring so decided rebuild time.