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Cdub100

Inflation - Doomsday

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9 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Isn’t it 6.2%?

That's what the government says, but nobody actually believes it.

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4 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Yea you got money but you suck as a human! You think you are better cause you have money!

Didn’t you just get the biggest increase for food stamps in history? What are you complaining about? 

  • Haha 1

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2 hours ago, Strike said:

So the government is going to change how they calculate inflation.  Any question that this will cause inflation to decrease?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/and-just-inflation-about-disappear

They just don’t care anymore. And they called Trump an authoritarian. Imagine he pulled this bullshit? 

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On 11/10/2021 at 9:11 PM, Cdub100 said:

If the real inflation rate is 15% which I believe it is I wouldn't settle for 10 either.

Again half of all money ever printed was printed this year. Hell, 15% is too low IMO

I don’t believe you.

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1 hour ago, Alias Detective said:

I don’t believe you.

Okay that's fine. You're still paying more

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@jerryskids

@nobody

@Bert

 

I am still a nobody/peon, however I report to upper management and I sat it in an interesting presentation today by a director of manufacturing. At the end of 2020 they budgeted, and had the parts/headcount to produce around 20 drilling motors for all of 2021.

Currently, we have produced ~500 in 2021 and we are not close to meeting the demand in drilling motors. even the ones that have been produced they are running past expected lifetime because they cannot find replacements. Not a single management person forecasted the drastic increase in demand.

 

We are bottle-necked on raw materials, electronics, and staff. Same as practically any other industry. The problem is we use the same low tech chips as all of the other industries in the world for these parts. So we are competing against every other industry in the world.

It was an interesting presentation that I got to sit in on.

 

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14 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

@jerryskids

@nobody

@Bert

 

I am still a nobody/peon, however I report to upper management and I sat it in an interesting presentation today by a director of manufacturing. At the end of 2020 they budgeted, and had the parts/headcount to produce around 20 drilling motors for all of 2021. Currently, we have produced ~500 in 2021 and we are not close to meeting the demand in drilling motors. even the ones that have been produced they are running past expected lifetime because they cannot find replacements.

We are bottle-necked on raw materials, electronics, and staff. Same as practically any other industry. The problem is we use the same low tech chips as all of the other industries in the world for these parts. So we are competing against every other industry in the world.

It was an interesting presentation that I got to sit in on.

 

We started seeing long lead times getting remote valves.  I suspect it is because they use the same chips you speak of.  Historically, we would hold very few of these values in inventory but now we lease warehouse space to inventory "key" pieces of equipment.  The prices have also gone through the roof.   

Interesting times.

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Land prices have gone up big time here in Iowa.  It's gone up 20-30% across the state.  The average price per acre of farmland is now close to $10,000.  Even crappy, undeveloped land is very expensive.

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Land prices have gone up big time here in Iowa.  It's gone up 20-30% across the state.  The average price per acre of farmland is now close to $10,000.  Even crappy, undeveloped land is very expensive.

I've seen this across the country.  It has been so crazy that the increased value has lowered property tax rates in many rural areas.  

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1 hour ago, MTSkiBum said:

@jerryskids

@nobody

@Bert

 

I am still a nobody/peon, however I report to upper management and I sat it in an interesting presentation today by a director of manufacturing. At the end of 2020 they budgeted, and had the parts/headcount to produce around 20 drilling motors for all of 2021.

Currently, we have produced ~500 in 2021 and we are not close to meeting the demand in drilling motors. even the ones that have been produced they are running past expected lifetime because they cannot find replacements. Not a single management person forecasted the drastic increase in demand.

 

We are bottle-necked on raw materials, electronics, and staff. Same as practically any other industry. The problem is we use the same low tech chips as all of the other industries in the world for these parts. So we are competing against every other industry in the world.

It was an interesting presentation that I got to sit in on.

 

I have some insight into the manufacturers of "low-tech" chips and my crystal ball says there is no end in sight to the allocation problems.  Semiconductor always goes through these cycles though, largely because the fabs are super expensive to build and maintain so the companies don't add capacity lightly.  Also in a bit of irony, they have issues getting the equipment to increase capacity as well. 

Another problem is the challenge of multiple sourcing.  Some very low-tech devices are interchangeable, but analog/power/RF components, some of which are functionally low-tech, rely on the specific parameters of the fab to function to spec.  Larger digital devices like processors as well.  

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Larry Fink is in charge now. He has seized control of our finances and now owns the government. So much that Bloomberg refers to Black Rock as the “Fourth branch of the government”. The real power. The rest are meat puppets. 

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good quickie on zimbabwe inflation.

also, if you complained about the collapse of the zimbabwe economy, you were shouted down as a racist.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

good quickie on zimbabwe inflation.

also, if you complained about the collapse of the zimbabwe economy, you were shouted down as a racist.

 

 

I have some of those dollars. I give them out to kids for christmas.

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Link

Quote

Another big interest rate hike is coming, as the Fed battles stubborn inflation

 

That darn transitory inflation created by Putin that we should all welcome to fight climate change. good luck fed!  Biden just screwed you with that fake inflation reduction act too.....

  • Confused 1

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1 hour ago, RLLD said:

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That darn transitory inflation created by Putin that we should all welcome to fight climate change. good luck fed!  Biden just screwed you with that fake inflation reduction act too.....

Interest rate hike is a tax on banks to pass on to borrowers that won't exist. Homes sales headed for the toilet. Building materials will be dirt cheap. 

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1 minute ago, TimmySmith said:

Interest rate hike is a tax on banks to pass on to borrowers that won't exist. Homes sales headed for the toilet. Building materials will be dirt cheap. 

Nice.  I’m thinking about an all season pool house. Bar, the whole works. Pretty soon I won’t have to ever go out. 

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4 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Interest rate hike is a tax on banks to pass on to borrowers that won't exist. Homes sales headed for the toilet. Building materials will be dirt cheap. 

 

I have been sitting on a bathroom remodel for a few years and have cash in hand. I have the previously pink wallpaper torn down already along with some of the fixtures.

I will need to start ripping up the pink tile shortly as well.

No focking way do i want to pay current prices.

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4 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

I have been sitting on a bathroom remodel for a few years and have cash in hand. I have the previously pink wallpaper torn down already along with some of the fixtures.

I will need to start ripping up the pink tile shortly as well.

No focking way do i want to pay current prices.

In the midst of an absolutely necessary bathroom remodel.  Couldn't wait any longer.  Paying through the nose, but at least I know the guys doing it are top notch. Was blue tile and pink tub.

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1 minute ago, TimmySmith said:

In the midst of an absolutely necessary bathroom remodel.  Couldn't wait any longer.  Paying through the nose, but at least I know the guys doing it are top notch. Was blue tile and pink tub.

Ours is getting there, the drywall around the shower is starting to rot. But fock it, i waited this long what is another year or two.

I will do about half of the work myself, but i do not want to install either the cabinets or the shower. I think it will be easier to find a contractor for this shortly.

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1 hour ago, RLLD said:

Link

 

That darn transitory inflation created by Putin that we should all welcome to fight climate change. good luck fed!  Biden just screwed you with that fake inflation reduction act too.....

Every time the Fed raises rates Washington pushes through another huge spending bill. We'll never get in front of it at this rate.

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28 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Interest rate hike is a tax on banks to pass on to borrowers that won't exist. Homes sales headed for the toilet. Building materials will be dirt cheap. 

If people truly understood this fact it would destroy the Democrat party

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40 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

Ours is getting there, the drywall around the shower is starting to rot. But fock it, i waited this long what is another year or two.

I will do about half of the work myself, but i do not want to install either the cabinets or the shower. I think it will be easier to find a contractor for this shortly.

The plaster above the shower head was caving in. I thought it was going to reveal water damage disaster after demo.  Luckily, not much at all. These old bathrooms were built like tanks. I fancied myself doing demo and some of the rebuild, but I was kidding myself.  These guys have done 100 of these old bathrooms. They know all the flaws already.  It will be brand new.  They had 3 weeks between jobs, so they took me on.  I feel lucky. 

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.75 Damn poor @edjr The housing market is finally gonna crash but he's gonna pay the same amount due to the interest rate :lol:

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14 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

.75 Damn poor @edjr The housing market is finally gonna crash but he's gonna pay the same amount due to the interest rate :lol:

A house that is 600lk today.  Say it is 500k in a year. Even at 10%  (how long till the rates come down) maybe another year? Refi and that's an easy win. I thought you knew money?

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10 minutes ago, edjr said:

A house that is 600lk today.  Say it is 500k in a year. Even at 10%  (how long till the rates come down) maybe another year? Refi and that's an easy win. I thought you knew money?

I think it's gonna be a long time before they come back down. Go get that house homie!

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12 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I think it's gonna be a long time before they come back down. Go get that house homie!

You can just admit your name cdumb is pretty accurate when it comes to money.  Housing and crypto. What else can you teach me?

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1 hour ago, edjr said:

You can just admit your name cdumb is pretty accurate when it comes to money.  Housing and crypto. What else can you teach me?

Jiu jitsu?

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1 hour ago, edjr said:

A house that is 600lk today.  Say it is 500k in a year. Even at 10%  (how long till the rates come down) maybe another year? Refi and that's an easy win. I thought you knew money?

All based on rates coming down.  And still a huge loss from a year ago.  Huge loss. 

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Just now, TimmySmith said:

All based on rates coming down.  And still a huge loss from a year ago.  Huge loss. 

so it's better to buy a house today than wait 12/18 months? :huh: 

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Just now, edjr said:

so it's better to buy a house today than wait 12/18 months? :huh: 

Your crystal ball works better than mine.  I certainly didn't see rates going to 10 and then falling.

But then again I refi-ed at 2.58% so maybe mine does work.  :dunno:

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10 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Your crystal ball works better than mine.  I certainly didn't see rates going to 10 and then falling.

But then again I refi-ed at 2.58% so maybe mine does work.  :dunno:

I doubt they will go to 10.  but I do have a friend that does mortgages and works on 100% commission and hasn't closed anything since early June. Obviously make a killing the past 2 years

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46 minutes ago, edjr said:

I doubt they will go to 10.  but I do have a friend that does mortgages and works on 100% commission and hasn't closed anything since early June. Obviously make a killing the past 2 years

Your friend is screwed for a while.  There is mid 90s uncertainty out there. With no internet bubble on the horizon.  

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1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

Your crystal ball works better than mine.  I certainly didn't see rates going to 10 and then falling.

But then again I refi-ed at 2.58% so maybe mine does work.  :dunno:

Powell said the beating will continue until inflation is at 2%. We are a LOOOOOOOOONG way off from that. I also refied at 2.797%.

For every 1% increase in mortgage rates a 400k home goes up 100k over the life of the loan. Poor poor Edjr. He'll just refi I guess :lol:

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