Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Fumbleweed

Looking Ahead to Redrafts 2022: First Four Rounds

Recommended Posts

This is something I like to post on site in early January and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2022 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly. 

Round One:

1. Jonathan Taylor 
2. Derrick Henry
3. Nick Chubb
4. Dalvin Cook
5. Davante Adams
6. Joe Mixon
7. Ja'Marr Chase 
8. Austin Ekeler
9. Christian McCaffrey
10. Cooper Kupp 
11. Alvin Kamara
12. Justin Jefferson

Round Two:

13. Najee Harris
14. Tyreek Hill 
15. Aaron Jones
16. Ezekiel Elliott
17. Antonio Gibson
18. Deebo Samuel
19. Josh Allen
20. Javonte Williams 
21. D'Andre Swift
22. Travis Kelce
23. Stefon Diggs
24. Leonard Fournette

Round Three:

25. Mark Andrews
26. Patrick Mahomes
27. Mike Evans
28. Justin Herbert
29. James Conner
30. DeAndre Hopkins
31. Josh Jacobs
32. Mike Williams
33. Damien Harris
34. Elijah Mitchell 
35. D.K. Metcalf
36. Saquon Barkley

Round Four:

37. Keenan Allen
38. David Montgomery
39. Kyler Murray
40. Chris Godwin
41. A.J. Brown
42. Joe Burrow
43. George Kittle
44. Tom Brady
45. CeeDee Lamb
46. Aaron Rodgers
47. Rashaad Penny
48. Tyler Lockett

Honorable mention: Adam Thielen, Diontae Johnson, A.J. Dillon 


Thoughts??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chubb too high, with K. Hunt there / job share.  //  Gibson and Swift too high - again; job shares. 

 

Those are the obvious adjustments to me - "at this time."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honorable mention: Darren Waller.  Injured top players can recover in a year or less just look at your Christian McCaffrey ranking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I doubt anyone that drafted Aaron Jones will draft him that high or should with the AJ Dillon RBBC situation now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll take Glaring Omissions for $400, Alex.

"This rookie WR has been in the top 10 PPR WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 25.0 PPR ppg over the last five weeks of the season."

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I'll take Glaring Omissions for $400, Alex.

"This rookie WR has been in the top 10 PPR WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 25.0 PPR ppg over the last five weeks of the season."

 

Totally, here's his numbers from week 13 - 17

WEEK
OPP
REC
YDS
AVG
TD
TAR
CAR
YDS
TD
MISCTD
FPTS
 
13
Min
10
86
8.6
1
12
1
2
0
0
24.0
14
8
73
9.1
0
12
0
0
0
0
15.0
15
Ari
8
90
11.3
1
11
1
5
0
0
23.0
16
9
91
10.1
1
11
2
19
0
0
25.0
17
8
111
13.9
1
11
2
23
1
0
38.0

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I doubt anyone that drafted Aaron Jones will draft him that high or should with the AJ Dillon RBBC situation now.

it may be the same situation with Zeke in Dallas.

obviously we will wait to see how things progress.  but if its looking like a timeshare, that decreases the value of both Zeke and Jones by a significant margin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don’t see Kupp repeating l I think he’ll be a disappointment next season s a first round pick. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A Jones was 14th in non ppr avg per game, I don’t think it’s a wise move picking him in the early second round.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The entire third round doesn’t look good.  Neither does the fourth round. Can’t wait for the updates.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Don’t see Kupp repeating l I think he’ll be a disappointment next season s a first round pick. 

Then I’ll be the guy drafting him too high.  Don’t see a reason he’ll drop-off…between RB injuries this year, and Kupp’s consistency, in full PPR re-draft I’d consider him at #2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, makindollaz said:

Then I’ll be the guy drafting him too high.  Don’t see a reason he’ll drop-off…between RB injuries this year, and Kupp’s consistency, in full PPR re-draft I’d consider him at #2.

I’m sorry. But it’s still a long offseason. Hopefully you’ll repent.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m sorry. But it’s still a long offseason. Hopefully you’ll repent.  

In the PPR league I won tonight, 11 was the worst game he had all season, and he failed to score 20 twice.  Dude was Megatron/Emmitt/Terrell Davis level in their prime.  I’ll roll the dice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

In the PPR league I won tonight, 11 was the worst game he had all season, and he failed to score 20 twice.  Dude was Megatron/Emmitt/Terrell Davis level in their prime.  I’ll roll the dice.

Ok by me, which is why I say he’ll be over valued next season.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Waddle. And if Sony Michel has a good playoff run and establishes himself as the lead dog he’s a first four round pick. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, makindollaz said:

In the PPR league I won tonight, 11 was the worst game he had all season, and he failed to score 20 twice.  Dude was Megatron/Emmitt/Terrell Davis level in their prime.  I’ll roll the dice.

Said everyone that drafted Lamar #1 last year.  You have to be able to recognize outliers.  Yes, he should be a good PPR WR, but there’s a big enough sample size to compare against this year with him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JagFan said:

Said everyone that drafted Lamar #1 last year.  You have to be able to recognize outliers.  Yes, he should be a good PPR WR, but there’s a big enough sample size to compare against this year with him.

However, only one year of him playing with his BFF.  He literally has breakfast with the guy every day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I'll take Glaring Omissions for $400, Alex.

"This rookie WR has been in the top 10 PPR WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 25.0 PPR ppg over the last five weeks of the season."

 

The projections are for non-PPR as was noted. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Waddle. And if Sony Michel has a good playoff run and establishes himself as the lead dog he’s a first four round pick. 

Akers returning, would avoid Rams RB, maybe if there's clarity in August will have to reconsider

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, weepaws said:

Don’t see Kupp repeating l I think he’ll be a disappointment next season s a first round pick. 

What don't you like about him,? other than the obvious that there will likely be some regression from his ridiculous output from this year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Donkey said:

Akers returning, would avoid Rams RB, maybe if there's clarity in August will have to reconsider

Torn Achilles. Not a great track record for rb’s coming back from that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kupp is probably real close to where his high end would be. I mean yeah he is going to regress next year but say he gives you 70% of what he did this year. That would be (as of now): 97 catches, 1280 yards, and like 11 touchdowns. I'd take that even recognizing that touchdowns are fluky to predict. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Taylor

2. Henry

3. Eckler

4. Cook

5. Mixon

6. Adams

7. Harris

8. Chubb

9. Kupp

10. Chase

11. Kamara

12. McCaffrey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Torn Achilles. Not a great track record for rb’s coming back from that. 

I think it will be very difficult to determine that Michel is the lead back going into next year.  Unless i'm missing something like Henderson is a free agent.  the point that the lead RB for the Rams belongs on the list is true - i just don't think we'll know who that is until the season gets underway

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fumbleweed said:

The projections are for non-PPR as was noted. 

Ah, let me adjust for standard.

"This rookie WR has been in the top 10 standard WRs since Week 8, and has averaged 16.4 standard ppg over the last five weeks of the season."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jonathan Taylor is on pace for almost 425 touches this season... assuming 2 playoff games.  So, he's going to get hurt next year, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cavern said:

I think it will be very difficult to determine that Michel is the lead back going into next year.  Unless i'm missing something like Henderson is a free agent.  the point that the lead RB for the Rams belongs on the list is true - i just don't think we'll know who that is until the season gets underway

Michel is much better than Henderson. I think that part of the debate is over. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Michel is much better than Henderson.

By what metric?  Henderson rushed for 4.6 yards per carry on 149 attempts, Michel averaged 4.3 yards per carry on 187 attempts, behind presumably the same offensive line.  Henderson caught 72.5% of his 40 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception; Michel caught 69.0% of his 29 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception.  Henderson scored 5 rushing and 3 receiving TDs (all but one by Halloween/Week 8), and Michel scored 4 rushing and 1 receiving TDs (all but one after Halloween/Week 8).  And Henderson has been playing through injury for many of the last few weeks, when he has played at all.

So exactly what evidence do you have that closes the debate in favor of Michel, a guy who couldn't even find a role in Belichick's patchwork backfield?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Michel rushed for over 900 yards twice with the Patriots and will again this year with the Rams even though he wasn't the full workhorse running back the entire season,  Whenever he's gotten the ball he's produced.  Rookie year was 2018 so it's not like he's an old vet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You all are correct about the Rams RB being a shoo-in for being one of the top 48 picks in a redraft. But, Henderson, Akers, and Michel are all a part of the equation right now and so who ultimately breaks out of that pack (assuming someone does) is really an unknown right now. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Donkey said:

What don't you like about him,? other than the obvious that there will likely be some regression from his ridiculous output from this year

I like everything about him, own him on my 12 team ppr, great pick. 

I just don’t see him posting round one numbers, but didn’t say he won’t be very good. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I might just draft Henry and Taylor in all my auction leagues next year; they both seem to be machines that crank out 20+ PPR per game and rarely if ever get hurt.

With 360 PPR right now, Taylor is 45 points ahead of 2nd place and has 120 points more than any RB not in the top 5.  Henry is STILL a top 12 RB in standard scoring, and a top 20 RB in PPR, even though he's played half the games of everyone else.  If you double Henry's 8 game total, he'd have almost 30 points more than Taylor--and together, they'd have 30 points less than McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara and Zeke combined.

Grab a 20 pt per week QB, and I only need to get about 60-65 points from the rest of my WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/D lineup to score around 125-130 a week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I think I might just draft Henry and Taylor in all my auction leagues next year; they both seem to be machines that crank out 20+ PPR per game and rarely if ever get hurt.

With 360 PPR right now, Taylor is 45 points ahead of 2nd place and has 120 points more than any RB not in the top 5.  Henry is STILL a top 12 RB in standard scoring, and a top 20 RB in PPR, even though he's played half the games of everyone else.  If you double Henry's 8 game total, he'd have almost 30 points more than Taylor--and together, they'd have 30 points less than McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara and Zeke combined.

Grab a 20 pt per week QB, and I only need to get about 60-65 points from the rest of my WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/D lineup to score around 125-130 a week.

They're like Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander in their prime.  I will consider doing this in my auction league.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

By what metric?  Henderson rushed for 4.6 yards per carry on 149 attempts, Michel averaged 4.3 yards per carry on 187 attempts, behind presumably the same offensive line.  Henderson caught 72.5% of his 40 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception; Michel caught 69.0% of his 29 targets and averaged 6.1 yards per reception.  Henderson scored 5 rushing and 3 receiving TDs (all but one by Halloween/Week 8), and Michel scored 4 rushing and 1 receiving TDs (all but one after Halloween/Week 8).  And Henderson has been playing through injury for many of the last few weeks, when he has played at all.

So exactly what evidence do you have that closes the debate in favor of Michel, a guy who couldn't even find a role in Belichick's patchwork backfield?

Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better. Henderson constantly pulls himself out of games. You would know this if you have watched him. Get your head out of the stat book and experience the game. Maybe you would be better at FF if you did. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of today, Henderson as played in 40 games last three seasons, and Michel as played in 41.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better.

Oh, ok, so not much better at football then; just much better at staying healthy.  I wonder if that will be enough to win the starting job next year...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, weepaws said:

As of today, Henderson as played in 40 games last three seasons, and Michel as played in 41.  

Did you miss the part where I clearly said he pulls himself out of games? Don’t be so eager young man. Take your time, it’s better when it lasts. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better. Henderson constantly pulls himself out of games. You would know this if you have watched him. Get your head out of the stat book and experience the game. Maybe you would be better at FF if you did. 

 

2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Did you miss the part where I clearly said he pulls himself out of games? Don’t be so eager young man. Take your time, it’s better when it lasts. 

I did see that, impressive.  

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

As of today, Henderson as played in 40 games last three seasons, and Michel as played in 41.  

Did you see mine? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

I did see that, impressive.  

Did you see mine? 

Wow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Henderson gets hurt all the time. Hence, Michel is much better. Henderson constantly pulls himself out of games. You would know this if you have watched him. Get your head out of the stat book and experience the game. Maybe you would be better at FF if you did. 

Is there any evidence the coaching staff has made a decision that Michel is their starter for next season - or is it just your opinion?

I think the point of the thread is who should be listed in the top 4 rounds of next year's draft right now.

there were posters who thought David Montgomery had lost all or some of the job to Khalil Herbert while he was injured... I think coaches opinions of who their starter is are not as easily swayed as you might think.  Cam Akers was drafted to be the guy.  if he returns to 100% of his prior ability he definitely would be in the running to earn the starting spot.  Henderson was #2.  Michel was brought in to add depth.  He's been VERY GOOD depth, but I have seen nothing to suggest that he's definitely next year's starter.  Thus, he wouldn't go on this first 4 rounds list until word comes out of training camp next year that he's won the job.  jmho that the OP's decision to not list Michel is a good one

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×