Looking Ahead to Redrafts 2022: First Four Rounds

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

17 hours ago, Gepetto said:

They're like Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander in their prime.  I will consider doing this in my auction league.

Risky considering that Henry isn't going to change his style and weight... and now had a foot injury causing him to miss half a season.  On top of that, Jonathan Taylor may reach as many as 425 total touches this year, if they play 2 playoff games.  Even if they only play the one game, he'll still be at 400.  Isn't that the dreaded number for RB's?

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

@Hardcore troubadour @cavern

Both Michel and Henderson are free agents after the season.  As you brought up, @cavern, the Rams drafted Akers to be the guy.  My guess is they're going to go with him if he's healthy and just look to sign someone as depth.  Odds are, it'll be one of those two... but not both.  They may even draft a guy in the 3rd or 4th round also.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

I think @Fumbleweed's list is pretty good, as of right now, concerning the first round.  If I have the #1 pick next year, with the information we have now as all that's available, I'm trading down.

• Henry is a big guy that puts a lot of weight on his feet.  He missed 8 games this year because of a foot injury.  Odds are, he's likely to injure his feet/foot again.
• Jonathan Taylor is going to log over 400 touches this year.
• Alvin Kamara has never played 16 games in a season since his rookie year.  He's never started more than 13 in season.  Lack of QB hurts.
• Dalvin Cook misses games every year and/or, leaves MULTIPLE games early.
• McCaffrey is now officially "injury prone".
• As long as Kareem Hunt is in Cleveland, Chubb is NOT a 1st round option.
• Ekeler doesn't appear to have a stable body.  In 2019, he got 225 touches... he missed 6 games in 2020.  This year he has over 250 touches.  What's that mean for next year?
• Mixon had over 300 touches in 2019 and missed 10 games in 2020.  This year, he's already over 330.

Simply, I'd rather have quality player depth than high risk/high reward.  I'll be happy to trade pick #1 and #48 for #12 and #13.  Give me Harris and Javonte Williams at 12/13 and the two best WR's at 24/25 over Henry or Taylor or whomever at #1.

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Give me Harris and Javonte Williams at 12/13

I doubt that a top 5 RB who played a higher percentage of his team's snaps as a rookie than any other RB in the league (who also won't have a franchise QB next year) is still on the board at the end of the first round, but hope springs eternal...

[cavern 70]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

@Hardcore troubadour @cavern

Both Michel and Henderson are free agents after the season.  As you brought up, @cavern, the Rams drafted Akers to be the guy.  My guess is they're going to go with him if he's healthy and just look to sign someone as depth.  Odds are, it'll be one of those two... but not both.  They may even draft a guy in the 3rd or 4th round also.

thanks - didn't realize the FA status.  should Michel go to a situation different than his excellent situation he has right now then his value decreases as well.  thus i continue to agree he's not on the first 4 rounds list right now

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I doubt that a top 5 RB who played a higher percentage of his team's snaps as a rookie than any other RB in the league (who also won't have a franchise QB next year) is still on the board at the end of the first round, but hope springs eternal...

I'm going by his rankings.  If that proves to come to fruition, fine... if not, others will be there.  It was just an example anyway.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

22 minutes ago, cavern said:

thanks - didn't realize the FA status.  should Michel go to a situation different than his excellent situation he has right now then his value decreases as well.  thus i continue to agree he's not on the first 4 rounds list right now

I did notice that Akers wasn't listed in the OP's post.  Which is fine, he was probably overlooked.  It's something that as time goes by, would be picked up.  I also think JK Dobbins could fall in that group as well.  I believe that after missing the playoffs this year, the Ravens realized that using Jackson to rush for 1,000 yards is a terrible idea for their long term hopes.  I'm guessing they're going to be looking to cut Jackson's rush attempts in half.  Dobbins, who averaged 6 yards per rush last year and who was a 2nd round pick, will be the biggest beneficiary of that.

[cavern 70]

17 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I did notice that Akers wasn't listed in the OP's post.  Which is fine, he was probably overlooked.  It's something that as time goes by, would be picked up.  I also think JK Dobbins could fall in that group as well.  I believe that after missing the playoffs this year, the Ravens realized that using Jackson to rush for 1,000 yards is a terrible idea for their long term hopes.  I'm guessing they're going to be looking to cut Jackson's rush attempts in half.  Dobbins, who averaged 6 yards per rush last year and who was a 2nd round pick, will be the biggest beneficiary of that.

Yes - agree both could be on the list in a few months.  but, i agree not right now, too much unknown.  But i think i put either one of those guys before michel right now.  michel is benefitting from a great situation.  when henderson was in there, he had good numbers as well

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

10 hours ago, cavern said:

Is there any evidence the coaching staff has made a decision that Michel is their starter for next season - or is it just your opinion?

I think the point of the thread is who should be listed in the top 4 rounds of next year's draft right now.

there were posters who thought David Montgomery had lost all or some of the job to Khalil Herbert while he was injured... I think coaches opinions of who their starter is are not as easily swayed as you might think.  Cam Akers was drafted to be the guy.  if he returns to 100% of his prior ability he definitely would be in the running to earn the starting spot.  Henderson was #2.  Michel was brought in to add depth.  He's been VERY GOOD depth, but I have seen nothing to suggest that he's definitely next year's starter.  Thus, he wouldn't go on this first 4 rounds list until word comes out of training camp next year that he's won the job.  jmho that the OP's decision to not list Michel is a good one

Another one who doesn’t read. As I said IF Michel has a good playoff run establishing himself as the lead dog. 

[cavern 70]

11 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Another one who doesn’t read. As I said IF Michel has a good playoff run establishing himself as the lead dog. 

ok, little mr insult.

it doesn't matter what he does while the other guys are hurt.  it didn't before i found out he's a FA at season's end and it really doesn't now...you're wishful thinking. bet you have in a keeper.  keep wishing.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

12 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Another one who doesn’t read. As I said IF Michel has a good playoff run establishing himself as the lead dog. 

I don't know if I agree with that.  They spent a high pick on Cam Akers.  I think that if Michel has a good playoff run, the Rams would prefer to get their investment back.  In fact, maybe a better return.  They traded a 4th and 6th rounder for Michel.  If he has a good run, it's possible some team comes along and gives him "starter" money.  Someone like, Buffalo, Miami, or Houston who may not feel they have a lead back.  If that happens, the Rams could get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Michel.  They probably would prefer Akers and a 3rd than have Michel and a big contract as backup.  They could probably go out and get any one of 4 or 5 guys at $1M to be Akers' backup... plus invest a 5th or 6th round pick on a guy.  Akers + $1M backup + 5th round rookie is better than Akers + $6M Michel + 5th round rookie because that's $5M you have more to spend on retaining a key player... such as Von Miller.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

31 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't know if I agree with that.  They spent a high pick on Cam Akers.  I think that if Michel has a good playoff run, the Rams would prefer to get their investment back.  In fact, maybe a better return.  They traded a 4th and 6th rounder for Michel.  If he has a good run, it's possible some team comes along and gives him "starter" money.  Someone like, Buffalo, Miami, or Houston who may not feel they have a lead back.  If that happens, the Rams could get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Michel.  They probably would prefer Akers and a 3rd than have Michel and a big contract as backup.  They could probably go out and get any one of 4 or 5 guys at $1M to be Akers' backup... plus invest a 5th or 6th round pick on a guy.  Akers + $1M backup + 5th round rookie is better than Akers + $6M Michel + 5th round rookie because that's $5M you have more to spend on retaining a key player... such as Von Miller.

You think if he has a good playoff run they will get rid of him for a guy coming off a torn Achilles? I guess they could if some team pays up for Michel, but then wouldn’t that put him in a spot to be a first four round fantasy pick , which is the subject? If he goes to the Bills or some other team and he gets paid lead back money, I would say he is. So back to my original statement, if he shows out in the playoffs he’s a top four round pick. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

Some random thoughts....

Quote

Round One:

1. Jonathan Taylor 
2. Derrick Henry
3. Nick Chubb
4. Dalvin Cook
5. Davante Adams - Even early, I wouldn't rank him this high.  He's an FA and may be tagged... and sit out.  Rodgers may not be back.
6. Joe Mixon
7. Ja'Marr Chase - A little too high because they have Higgins and Boyd and they're not a pass happy offense.  They run the ball quite a bit.  This is a case of "too many mouths to feed" for him to be consistent enough to be a first round pick.
8. Austin Ekeler
9. Christian McCaffrey
10. Cooper Kupp - Easily the #1 WR next year... probably top 3 pick.  His role isn't going to get reduced.
11. Alvin Kamara
12. Justin Jefferson

Round Two:

13. Najee Harris
14. Tyreek Hill 
15. Aaron Jones - Too high for a RBBC.  Dillon has clearly shown he's just as good and warrants similar playing time.
16. Ezekiel Elliott
17. Antonio Gibson - Oft-injured & bad team.  Plus, he isn't a high end talent.  He's an RB3, not a 2nd round pick.
18. Deebo Samuel - Might be too high.  I'm skeptical about Trey Lance and their QB situation.
19. Josh Allen
20. Javonte Williams 
21. D'Andre Swift - I liked how they used him this past year, but I'd be a little skeptical in taking him in the 2nd round next year.  Probably 3rd.
22. Travis Kelce
23. Stefon Diggs
24. Leonard Fournette - Don't know where he ends up.  Possibly back in Tampa, but I have a feeling that someone's going to over pay him.  Might even be a bad team.

Round Three:

25. Mark Andrews
26. Patrick Mahomes
27. Mike Evans - I'd take him in the 2nd round.  He's a top 5 WR, especially if Brown is gone.
28. Justin Herbert - Too high for a QB who doesn't run much.  He won't throw for 4800 yards and 45 TD's next year to warrant this high of a pick.  I don't think he'll have Mike Williams back.
29. James Conner - Free agent.  Don't know where he'll end up.  I don't think he can be a lead back and stay healthy.  Too TD dependent if he's not.
30. DeAndre Hopkins
31. Josh Jacobs
32. Mike Williams
33. Damien Harris
34. Elijah Mitchell - San Fran QB situation too sketchy and Trey Sermon will be healthy.  I think the 3rd round is too early.  Maybe 5th.
35. D.K. Metcalf - No way I take him before round 5.
36. Saquon Barkley - Giants stink and he can't stay healthy.  He's an RB3.

Round Four:

37. Keenan Allen
38. David Montgomery
39. Kyler Murray
40. Chris Godwin - Top 3 WR.  From weeks 7 to 14, he was WR3 in fantasy when Brown was out.  He's an FA.  If he stays in Tampa, he'll stay opposite Evans and Brown won't be back.  It'll be more like the 2019 season where he played only 14 games and still finished WR2 in PPR leagues.  Now, you want to knock him for injury history, fair, but talent-wise, he's one of the elites.  Assuming he stays in Tampa, they throw way too much for him not to be in the top 5.  If he goes somewhere else, he's the best WR on any team he'd go to.
41. A.J. Brown
42. Joe Burrow - I'd take him way before Herbert.  He is a legit 5000 yard / 45 TD QB candidate next year.
43. George Kittle
44. Tom Brady
45. CeeDee Lamb
46. Aaron Rodgers
47. Rashaad Penny - 0 track record of stability.  I'd never take him this high.  Maybe 7th or 8th round.
48. Tyler Lockett - Way too volatile to take this high.

 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

1 hour ago, cavern said:

ok, little mr insult.

it doesn't matter what he does while the other guys are hurt.  it didn't before i found out he's a FA at season's end and it really doesn't now...you're wishful thinking. bet you have in a keeper.  keep wishing.

My one keeper will be Javonte Williams. So no.  But I did have Michel, and watching him side by side with Henderson, who I also had, Michel looked much better.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

You think if he has a good playoff run they will get rid of him for a guy coming off a torn Achilles? I guess they could if some team pays up for Michel, but then wouldn’t that put him in a spot to be a first four round fantasy pick , which is the subject? If he goes to the Bills or some other team and he gets paid lead back money, I would say he is. So back to my original statement, if he shows out to the playoffs he’s a top four round pick. 

Yes, I think the Rams will let him walk for a guy coming off a torn Achilles.

Yes, Michel could go somewhere else... but I wouldn't trust him enough to be a first four round pick.  Even if he goes to Buffalo, they don't like to hand the ball off and Michel isn't much of a pass catcher.  Bill Belichick, who's a great judge of talent, was willing to dump him for a 4th and 6th round pick.  I'm pretty sure there was a reason.  I think he's a nice complimentary player, not a season-long lead back.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

13 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

My one keeper will be Javonte Williams. So no.  But I did have Michel, and watching him side by side with Henderson, who I also had, Michel looked much better.  

Of course he did.  In his last 5 games, he played against Jacksonville (25th ranked rush defense), Arizona (11th - only got 8 points that week), Seattle (18th), Minnesota (27th), and Baltimore (1st - got 13 points).  Against AZ and Bal, he averaged less than 4 yards per carry and over 5 against the other 3.  It's easy to look good against bad teams.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

@Hardcore troubadour  I rescind my comments on Michel.  I just read that the Rams are planning to play Akers.  I don't think that ends well for Akers.  I think Michel ends up the starter in LA next year.  Granted, I don't think he'll be all that great, but I do think people will take him in the first four rounds.

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

But I did have Michel, and watching him side by side with Henderson, who I also had, Michel looked much better.  

As we have already established, the only stat in which Michel looked better than Henderson was staying healthy, so I don't know why you keep saying things that imply that Michel is better on the field.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

As we have already established, the only stat in which Michel looked better than Henderson was staying healthy, so I don't know why you keep saying things that imply that Michel is better on the field.

Becisse I don’t think Henderson is that good. Michel looks better and more versatile to me. That’s all. 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Becisse I don’t think Henderson is that good. Michel looks better and more versatile to me. That’s all. 

Fine, but we've already established that on the field, in the axual games, reality doesn't match your perception--so I'm not sure why you carry on as if we should go by your perception rather than reality.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Fine, but we've already established that on the field, in the axual games, reality doesn't match your perception--so I'm not sure why you carry on as if we should go by your perception rather than reality.

We’ll see. It’s funny, no matter how much you say “if this happens” people see what they want to see, and start arguing against the narrative they made up in their own heads. Do you come here to have discourse with others or the voices in your own head? 

[AxeElf 787]

15 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

We’ll see. It’s funny, no matter how much you say “if this happens” people see what they want to see, and start arguing against the narrative they made up in their own heads. Do you come here to have discourse with others or the voices in your own head? 

None of this seems to be related to the Henderson/Michel issue.  I'm not even sure if you are addressing me any more, since none of my points have been based on "if this happens," but rather on what HAS happened on the field.  And then it gets really weird at the end when you suggest that you might just be a voice inside my own head (or whomever's head you are addressing).

So are we good?  Agreed that Henderson has looked better on the field, statistically, while Michel has had more success at staying healthy?  I hope so.

[weepaws 2,451]

Henderson as had 5 games in which he had 15 plus rush att, in those games hos rush avg is 3:86.  

Michel has had 6 games in which he had 15 plus rushing att, in those games his avg is 4.3.  

 

[AxeElf 787]

10 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

7. Ja'Marr Chase - A little too high because they have Higgins and Boyd and they're not a pass happy offense.  They run the ball quite a bit.  This is a case of "too many mouths to feed" for him to be consistent enough to be a first round pick.

I would make Chase more of a priority in Best Ball leagues, where his inconsistency won't hurt you as much as his 30-burgers will help you.

[weepaws 2,451]

4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I would make Chase more of a priority in Best Ball leagues, where his inconsistency won't hurt you as much as his 30-burgers will help you.

That would include a lot of players.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

14 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I would make Chase more of a priority in Best Ball leagues, where his inconsistency won't hurt you as much as his 30-burgers will help you.

Agreed.

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

9 hours ago, weepaws said:

That would include a lot of players.  

There are some more than others.  Guys like Chase are the type with substantial extremes, I believe.  Chase is probably a top 5 WR pick in Best ball, but probably a low end WR1/high end WR2 in redraft.  I could probably name about 10 to 15 guys who are likely to be more consistent than Chase.  Guys like Jefferson, Diggs, Adams, Hill, Godwin, Waddle (yes is "their guy" and the only one), Lamb, Hopkins, and Allen.  If the Eagles manage to actually get a QB, I'd rather have DeVonta Smith.  He's right there with Chase on talent, he just doesn't have someone who can get him the ball.  If I actually thought about it, I'd probably be able to come up with a couple more.

[weepaws 2,451]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

There are some more than others.  Guys like Chase are the type with substantial extremes, I believe.  Chase is probably a top 5 WR pick in Best ball, but probably a low end WR1/high end WR2 in redraft.  I could probably name about 10 to 15 guys who are likely to be more consistent than Chase.  Guys like Jefferson, Diggs, Adams, Hill, Godwin, Waddle (yes is "their guy" and the only one), Lamb, Hopkins, and Allen.  If the Eagles manage to actually get a QB, I'd rather have DeVonta Smith.  He's right there with Chase on talent, he just doesn't have someone who can get him the ball.  If I actually thought about it, I'd probably be able to come up with a couple more.

When it comes to best ball there are many players that fit.   So you talking best ball? 

[TBayXXXVII 2,105]

21 minutes ago, weepaws said:

When it comes to best ball there are many players that fit.   So you talking best ball? 

He was.  I was just agreeing with his point.  No, I don't agree with you that many players fit that bill... well, not players that are early round picks.  They guys you're talking about are guys generally taken in the 6th round and later.  Chase is potentially a first/second round player.  That's the difference.

[weepaws 2,451]

16 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He was.  I was just agreeing with his point.  No, I don't agree with you that many players fit that bill... well, not players that are early round picks.  They guys you're talking about are guys generally taken in the 6th round and later.  Chase is potentially a first/second round player.  That's the difference.

In best ball many players fit the bill, I don’t play best ball , it’s no fun playing in a league ones doesn’t manage. 

But you can draft many and hope for those 30 point games, and not have their duds hurt you. 

Now let’s talk redraft.   I’m not drafting Chase in the first round , right now my 14 team non ppr league is going 1/2 point ppr, I’m not so sure I need to chase a wr in the first round.  

 

[ZeroTolerance 582]

On 1/4/2022 at 4:52 PM, Gepetto said:

They're like Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander in their prime.  I will consider doing this in my auction league.

My plan of attack this year in auction was 55% on Henry/Ekeler, then a big chunk on midrange WRs (Allen, Di Johnson, Samuel, Chase) and got the Denver RBs for a better price than the SF pair. 

[eagles115 23]

Love me some Waddle next year especially if they get Watson....also, if the Saints trade for Wilson which I think they are going to do, M THOMAS gonna ball out

[AxeElf 787]

33 minutes ago, eagles115 said:

Love me some Waddle next year especially if they get Watson....also, if the Saints trade for Wilson which I think they are going to do, M THOMAS gonna ball out

What team do you think Thomas will be playing for in 2022?

[weepaws 2,451]

2 hours ago, eagles115 said:

Love me some Waddle next year especially if they get Watson....also, if the Saints trade for Wilson which I think they are going to do, M THOMAS gonna ball out

If Thomas does remain with the Saints, which doesn’t seem likely, what makes you think he’s going to ball out? I don’t think he’ll be with the Saints next season, and I think his desire to ball out is no longer there.  

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

I play in a best ball league. We still do waivers and trades. There’s plenty of managing going on, more than regular leagues in some aspects. You can’t just park guys on your bench and wait for them. 

[weepaws 2,451]

That’s not a best ball league, that’s a watered down manage league.  Usually for rookies.  

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

That’s not a best ball league, that’s a watered down manage league.  Usually for rookies.  

League started in 1993. We adjusted last year to Covid. We’re smart like that. Liked it so much we kept it. And oh yeah, it’s a 12 team league for money.  Not one of those 8 teamers you play in and have a pizza party. We eat steak.  

[weepaws 2,451]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

That’s not a best ball league, that’s a watered down manage league.  Usually for rookies.  

 

50 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

League started in 1993. We adjusted last year to Covid. We’re smart like that. Liked it so much we kept it. And oh yeah, it’s a 12 team league for money.  Not one of those 8 teamers you play in and have a pizza party. We eat steak.  

So we agree, it’s not a best ball league, it’s a watered down manage league that likes to eat cheap steak.  I have no problem with it. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,576]

10 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

So we agree, it’s not a best ball league, it’s a watered down manage league that likes to eat cheap steak.  I have no problem with it. 

No. The scoring is still best ball. It’s the managing that’s different. The scoring is what defines if it’s a best ball league. End of lesson. 

[weepaws 2,451]

10 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

No. The scoring is still best ball. It’s the managing that’s different. The scoring is what defines if it’s a best ball league. End of lesson. 

You manage to dummy down a best ball system even more, best ball is simply the easiest way to play ff , that’s why those that don’t play ff play best ball, and now you’ve made it even worthless.  And don’t ever call a best ball scoring system a league, it’s not a league. 

Nice.