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Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did, and recovered twice. ***Official thread***

Gepetto

By Gepetto
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GutterBoy FF Geek

GutterBoy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I was just looking for some input. And considering, despite our acrimony, I don’t think you’re an ignorant doofus, I just thought maybe there could be some conversation.  Yeah, I know I sling the poo too. Whatever. 

My thoughts are that we will be fine the next few years.  I don't think we're gonna get a collapse, I dont think we'll see much growth either.

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Beaker15
Beaker15

Ron is by far the biggest clown in here lol.  Always claiming he made the correct move after the fact but conveniently never posting what he does ahead of time.  Oh, except the one time he admitted to

Gepetto
Gepetto

I expect a stock market crash soon, a slight rebound and then an even bigger crash.  Two years ago I already moved all my mutual funds to bonds just before the crash when Covid started and oil went up

Bert
Bert

Better hope this doesn't turn out like the hyper inflation prediction from long ago.  Good Luck. Especially given that the Dow has increased by 25% since February of 2020.  You left a lot of mone

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Hardcore troubadour FF Geek

Hardcore troubadour

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

My thoughts are that we will be fine the next few years.  I don't think we're gonna get a collapse, I dont think we'll see much growth either.

It would be great if you worked in watching the piece.  Or anyone else for that matter.  Like I said, it’s PBS, not some right wing outfit. I have always thought frontline was the best thing they do. Not perfect, and I have disagreed.  They did one years ago called “The Warning”. I read and watched a lot about the 2008 financial crisis. It captivated me for a while. That was the best piece I saw on it. 

GutterBoy FF Geek

GutterBoy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It would be great if you worked in watching the piece.  Or anyone else for that matter.  Like I said, it’s PBS, not some right wing outfit. I have always thought frontline was the best thing they do. Not perfect, and I have disagreed.  They did one years ago called “The Warning”. I read and watched a lot about the 2008 financial crisis. It captivated me for a while. That was the best piece I saw on it. 

Do you get a commission every time someone watches your link?  WTF

thegeneral FF Geek

thegeneral

Posted
Posted

I get playing around with a portion of investments, making some bets, guesses, speculating etc…but for majority of money - time in the market rather than timing the market is the way to go IMO.

tubby_mcgee FF Geek

tubby_mcgee

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bert said:

I think the Dow is going to get to 35000-36000 in the next 18 months.  All that investing in 2020-2022 is going to pay off handsomely.  

History says you are correct.

But then of course history is not guarantee of future performance.  

Horseman FF Geek

Horseman

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, GutterBoy said:

Actually I don't care about gas prices because I barely drive, also I can afford gas when I do.

Also I'm smart enough to know that we're never seeing $2.50g again anyway, so now I'm not gonna throw a hissyfit until it gets back there.

Because you barely drive?  :doh:

Gas prices affect the prices of almost everything else dummy.

 

tubby_mcgee FF Geek

tubby_mcgee

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patented Phil said:

 If you invested $1M in stocks in 1965 and cashed out in 1982, you would have lost $30,000.

Stocks?  

As in.....??   Like what stocks?  Any and all? 

nobody FF Geek

nobody

Posted
Posted

Also, isn't it a bit disingenuous to cherry pick that specific date range?  Most people dollar cost average over decades.  I know 1982 was a low, so I'll assume 1965 was a high, right?  

 

easilyscan FF Geek

easilyscan

Posted
Posted
On 3/31/2023 at 9:52 AM, Hardcore troubadour said:

PBS Frontline: The Age Of Easy Money. Just finished watching. Shows where we were, where we are and possibly where we are headed. And if we are headed where some of these people think we are, all of our leaders and institutions can take a bow. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, the Fed, Banks and Wall Street, all the congresses. About two hours, no commercials. 

Watched it last night. Interesting, but nothing that you & I didn't already know. Just like all documentaries that cover the 2009 meltdown, & even the movies made about it ('the big short') they only call out investors, speculators, & Wall Street banks as the villains. Don't get me wrong, they were villains, but not the only ones. What none of them have the balls to cover/discuss, is the fact that without government & activist groups pressure, those bundles of millions of subprime mortgages wouldn't have been available for them to trade. 

This guy explains it better than I ever could. 

https://www.backwoodshome.com/the-meltdown-and-the-bailout-why-how-and-what-they-mean/

 

 

 

shadrap FF Geek

shadrap

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Watched it last night. Interesting, but nothing that you & I didn't already know. Just like all documentaries that cover the 2009 meltdown, & even the movies made about it ('the big short') they only call out investors, speculators, & Wall Street banks as the villains. Don't get me wrong, they were villains, but not the only ones. What none of them have the balls to cover/discuss, is the fact that without government & activist groups pressure, those bundles of millions of subprime mortgages wouldn't have been available for them to trade. 

This guy explains it better than I ever could. 

https://www.backwoodshome.com/the-meltdown-and-the-bailout-why-how-and-what-they-mean/

 

 

 

read the book, The Big Short & saw the movie twice.  Amazing only about 6 people saw the 2008 crash coming.  So much for stock EXPERTS.  will read your link later when I have time.

thanx for more info on that cluster that happened.

shadrap FF Geek

shadrap

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Watched it last night. Interesting, but nothing that you & I didn't already know. Just like all documentaries that cover the 2009 meltdown, & even the movies made about it ('the big short') they only call out investors, speculators, & Wall Street banks as the villains. Don't get me wrong, they were villains, but not the only ones. What none of them have the balls to cover/discuss, is the fact that without government & activist groups pressure, those bundles of millions of subprime mortgages wouldn't have been available for them to trade. 

This guy explains it better than I ever could. 

https://www.backwoodshome.com/the-meltdown-and-the-bailout-why-how-and-what-they-mean/

 

 

 

Should be required reading.  As usual race & politics played a big role in the meltdown.

sad & preventable.   

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easilyscan FF Geek

easilyscan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, shadrap said:

Should be required reading.  As usual race & politics played a big role in the meltdown.

sad & preventable.   

Yup.

By 2004, many lending institutions realized Fannie & Freddie would buy up these mortgages, so they too could afford to grant these risky loans & "sell" them, along with their risks, to Fannie & Freddie. It wasn't just legal, it was what the Congress & community activists wanted. In all fairness, although the problem originated with Democratic Party policies, when the Republicans had a chance to correct it...well, they weren't going to be the bad guys who turned off the mortgage spigot.

  • 2 weeks later...
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Hardcore troubadour FF Geek

Hardcore troubadour

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

How's that working out?

How’s your proclamations that Disney and AB will be hit fine?   Oooof.  

GutterBoy FF Geek

GutterBoy

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

How’s your proclamations that Disney and AB will be hit fine?   Oooof.  

Checked this morning, Disney+ still works, parks are still open, and I can still buy AB products at the store.  Have a seat, gramps.

Hardcore troubadour FF Geek

Hardcore troubadour

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Checked this morning, Disney+ still works, parks are still open, and I can still buy AB products at the store.  Have a seat, gramps.

Cool. And I assume your retirement is still invested in the market? 

GutterBoy FF Geek

GutterBoy

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gladiators said:

Good.  Would have worked out better had just sat on all the cash vs investing a portion.

Not sure what you invested in but the S&P is up 8% this year.

Gladiators FF Geek

Gladiators

Posted
Posted
Just now, GutterBoy said:

Not sure what you invested in but the S&P is up 8% this year.

I invested a portion between February and June of '22.  I'm down 4% on those investments.  Kept the rest in cash.  Most is currently sitting in a MM at 4% and a portion is in a CD at 4.6%.  I need to pull a large portion out in 2 1/2 years, so I don't want too much in the market.

GutterBoy FF Geek

GutterBoy

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gladiators said:

I invested a portion between February and June of '22.  I'm down 4% on those investments.  Kept the rest in cash.  Most is currently sitting in a MM at 4% and a portion is in a CD at 4.6%.  I need to pull a large portion out in 2 1/2 years, so I don't want too much in the market.

oh fock me I thought this thread started in 2023.  Whoops.

OK I get you.  I went cash in May 22 and then back in around election day.

RogerDodger FF Geek

RogerDodger

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

oh fock me I thought this thread started in 2023.  Whoops.

Vomit has like a dozen posts in this thread.

36 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

Look at this retard :lol:

 

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Hardcore troubadour FF Geek

Hardcore troubadour

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, RogerDodger said:

Vomit has like a dozen posts in this thread.

 

He’s incredible. Just denies things that are clear as day.  No shame. 

Gepetto FF Geek

Gepetto

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 hours ago, GutterBoy said:

oh fock me I thought this thread started in 2023.  Whoops.

OK I get you.  I went cash in May 22 and then back in around election day.

Nope.  The thread started right before the crash begin.  My prediction was accurate.

Gepetto FF Geek

Gepetto

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, GutterBoy said:

Except bonds got clobbered last year too.

Barely move my overall investment down compared to what the mutual funds would have.

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