Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did, and recovered twice. ***Official thread***

[nobody]

NVDA with a nice beat remaining flat after hours after an initial jump.

CRM getting crushed.

[easilyscan]

3 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Here in lies our conundrum.  The markets are so hot for so long people completely lost what most consider an average year’s return.  Doubling money in 7-10 years is the historical average return.  Now, have we been drilled into our heads enough to buy low that markets will continue to bounce back and climb even higher?  If so, inflation will explode as those with money keep making more.

Couldn't agree more. The market averages went nowhere from 1965 to 1980. I don't remember that, but there's a guy named Joe Kernan who's been on CNBC for ages. He was an intern at a brokerage house around 1980. He said that back then, no one was buying, no one was selling, no one even wanted to talk about stocks.

Compare that to today. We've had some brutal corrections/bear markets since then, but they were very short-lived compared to that one.

Does that mean I'm predicting something similar in the future, absolutely not, but I agree that a lot of investors suffer from instant gratification syndrome today & would/will be in for a rude awakening when/if the markets go back to the historical returns of doubling every 7-10 years. 

 

 

 

 

[easilyscan]

3 hours ago, thegeneral said:

I’ve got 800 shares. Won’t be buying this anymore I think, only trimming and moving into index funds.

Have held these for quite awhile and been my best investment…all from BSing with a coworker who kept talking about how he can’t get their graphics card and I finally looked at the company a bit closer 

Well done. I only have about half that many, but 150 of them are in a smallish IRA. Purchased those in 2018 and they've literally carried the entire account. I'm considering trimming some myself, because they now equal 30% of the IRA.

 

 

[thegeneral]

2 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Well done. I only have about half that many, but 150 of them are in a smallish IRA. Purchased those in 2018 and they've literally carried the entire account. I'm considering trimming some myself, because they now equal 30% of the IRA.

 

 

Take all the gains you can get! It’s always wish you bought more in these cases and you forget the good part that you actually got some.

 

[Maximum Overkill]

I'll likely scale down my NVDA at some point but for now I'm waiting on one more news cycle to hit. This thing can go to the moon with 1 more good news cycle. 

[nobody]

53 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Couldn't agree more. The market averages went nowhere from 1965 to 1980. I don't remember that, but there's a guy named Joe Kernan who's been on CNBC for ages. He was an intern at a brokerage house around 1980. He said that back then, no one was buying, no one was selling, no one even wanted to talk about stocks.

Compare that to today. We've had some brutal corrections/bear markets since then, but they were very short-lived compared to that one.

 

 

Coinciding with 401ks getting popular in the early 80s.

A bit of a cheat code when 100s of millions of dollars pour into the market every week.

[easilyscan]

2 minutes ago, nobody said:

Coinciding with 401ks getting popular in the early 80s.

Good point. As conventional pension's slowly went the way of the dinosaur (at least for those who work in the private sector) 401(k)s became a huge deal.

[easilyscan]

On 2/23/2026 at 9:00 PM, easilyscan said:

Not trying to be a smart arse here, but sometimes it pays to look at your account. There's only 30 stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average, which was down over 800 points.

A substantial percentage of that drop was due to one stock, IBM, which was down over 13% due to AI concerns.

I can see where someone who doesn't pay attention to the markets, might think their 401(k) took a big hit today, but if you're diversified, it probably did far better than the Dow 30.

I have almost everything at Fidelity. Two different IRAs, a health savings account, & a large taxable account. Thanks to stocks like AAPL-AWK-JNJ & LLY the total account value rose by just over 10 K 

What comes around goes around.

The day I posted that, all three of the major indexes Dow Jones industrial average, NASDAQ & S&P 500 were deeply in the red. 

Yesterday (February 25, 2026) those three averages were all green & my portfolio went down 10 K

 

[Alias Detective]

6 hours ago, easilyscan said:

What comes around goes around.

The day I posted that, all three of the major indexes Dow Jones industrial average, NASDAQ & S&P 500 were deeply in the red. 

Yesterday (February 25, 2026) those three averages were all green & my portfolio went down 10 K

 

You should be a portfolio manager.  Just messing.  I use a core and explore approach.  My core, 75% of my assets are in the S&P and NASDQ.  My explore money is in others.  I guess if I keep doubling every 7-10 plus contributions I’d be content.  No need to try and beat the markets at every turn.

[easilyscan]

On 2/26/2026 at 6:49 AM, Alias Detective said:

No need to try and beat the markets at every turn.

My only goal in all accounts is to beat the DJIA. It's been very hard to outperform the S&P 500 over the past 1.5 decades because the magnificent 7 have such an outsized impact. I only outperformed the 500 in 3 of the 4 accounts in 2025, because I loaded Google between 170 & 190 during the markets tariff tantrums last spring. 

Would be very surprised if that happened again in 2026.

 

 

 

 

  

[easilyscan]

Looks like it'll be a red day tomorrow. Owning precious metals and oil will cushion the blow. Those of you that look at the price of gas every time you drive past the station, might want to start a go fund me page now

 

[thegeneral]

Raytheon going to post some good numbers next couple quarters

[Hardcore troubadour]

Raytheon. Thats the one Bidens secretary of defense worked for before he was appointed. I wonder if he sold his shares after being confirmed? 

[thegeneral]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

Raytheon. Thats the one Bidens secretary of defense worked for before he was appointed. I wonder if he sold his shares after being confirmed? 

Lol

[Hardcore troubadour]

Oh noes! WW 3!

[thegeneral]

Look out below

[Gepetto]

Already sold all of my mutual funds a few days ago.

[Beaker15]

2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Already sold all of my mutual funds a few days ago.

Why?

[Gepetto]

4 minutes ago, Beaker15 said:

Why?

I moved my retirement to bonds. Just felt like the market was at an all time high, plus the limited mutual fund choice my company offers along with their poor performance, actually losing money since Jan 1st this year. I’ll go back to mutual funds at some point, probably in a few to several months.

[Grace Under Pressure]

Don't sell long term investment holdings over short term geo-political events.

If anything, buy SPY puts to hedge losses. Keep in mind you are willing to throw that money away if/when the market goes up again.

[seafoam1]

15 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Don't sell long term investment holdings over short term geo-political events.

If anything, buy SPY puts to hedge losses. Keep in mind you are willing to throw that money away if/when the market goes up again.

[Hardcore troubadour]

Oh noes! China has to pay more for oil! 

[Alias Detective]

On 3/3/2026 at 12:44 PM, Gepetto said:

I moved my retirement to bonds. Just felt like the market was at an all time high, plus the limited mutual fund choice my company offers along with their poor performance, actually losing money since Jan 1st this year. I’ll go back to mutual funds at some point, probably in a few to several months.

Your bonds are mutual funds dumbo.

[Gepetto]

Just now, Alias Detective said:

Your bonds are mutual funds dumbo.

OK, thanks. 

[easilyscan]

Sounds like a democrat to me

So I'm looking at the yahoo comment section for a certain stock I own. Someone complains that Fidelity is taking too much time to reinvest the quarterly dividend they received.

I suggest an alternative. Didn't push, just said that for about an eight year period, I applied the strategy to my core dividend paying stocks & it improved my results.

Bookmark a 6 month candlestick chart with 20 day moving average. Set your account to take dividends in cash. If you're someone who doesn't pay attention to the markets, put a reminder in your phone for the dividend payout day. On that day, open up the chart. If you think it's overbought, do nothing, if you think it's oversold, reinvest the dividends.

The OP replied with Thank You. Shortly after, someone else replied.

https://www.imagebam.com/view/ME1B3TUX

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Market has been garbage for months now. MAGA cultists are too poor to notice or care their “daddy” is ruining the economy while he steals U.S. money. Pathetic.

[seafoam1]

4 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Market has been garbage for months now. MAGA cultists are too poor to notice or care their “daddy” is ruining the economy while he steals U.S. money. Pathetic.

Up 19% in my investments the past year princess. Ups and downs are part of the ride. 

[thegeneral]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

Up 19% in my investments the past year princess. Ups and downs are part of the ride. 

Was better two years prior to this guy when we were dead and the worst country in duh world!

[dogcows]

Foreign investments are outpacing American ones since the start of 2025.

Unemployment is rising.

Stocks are falling.

Gas prices are spiking.

Housing is so expensive that even people earning $200K a year qualify for housing assistance.

Thanks Donny.

[seafoam1]

1 minute ago, dogcows said:

Foreign investments are outpacing American ones since the start of 2025.

Unemployment is rising.

Stocks are falling.

Gas prices are spiking.

Housing is so expensive that even people earning $200K a year qualify for housing assistance.

Thanks Donny.

Sorry to see you suffering. What you are saying is wrong but whatever. Go get a job. 

I'm doing great. 

[Hardcore troubadour]

Oh noes! Straits of Hormuz! 

[Grace Under Pressure]

56 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Up 19% in my investments the past year princess. Ups and downs are part of the ride. 

You should at least let a more credible handle spew this nonsense. No one here believes you do well at anything in life.

[Sean Mooney]

See a bunch of dopes were handwringing under Biden but when Trump goes in and does demonstrably disastrous things to the US economy they just hand wave it away.

Basically- stop looking to them for anything real and just skip past their posts. 

 

While you are at it- blast past people who excused all of Biden's missteps economically and are now freaking out. 

[Hardcore troubadour]

Oh noes! Blackrock capped withdrawals ! Wait a second. That sounds bad. 

[seafoam1]

9 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

See a bunch of dopes were handwringing under Biden but when Trump goes in and does demonstrably disastrous things to the US economy they just hand wave it away.

Basically- stop looking to them for anything real and just skip past their posts. 

 

While you are at it- blast past people who excused all of Biden's missteps economically and are now freaking out. 

So...basically you are hurting.

While I'm not.

Got it. 

[Mark Davis]

If anyone under either Biden or Trump is selling shares or not investing during all phases of the ups and downs they are going to get what they deserve.

[easilyscan]

Futures indicating another ugly day tomorrow. If that carries through to the regular trading day, I'll probably nibble on stocks I believe are oversold. FSLR-NVDA & KDP to name a few.

Crude oil is up $17 at 106 and change. Wish I would've seen that coming.

 

[nobody]

Cali rniangas went up a dollar per gallon in the last week.

[Mark Davis]

5 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Futures indicating another ugly day tomorrow. If that carries through to the regular trading day, I'll probably nibble on stocks I believe are oversold. FSLR-NVDA & KDP to name a few.

Crude oil is up $17 at 106 and change. Wish I would've seen that coming.

 

Probably in for rough seas for awhile given where the VIX is.  Long term this should create some good buying opportunities, but as with market turbulence, you can make a good long term buy and end up in a pretty upside down position short term.  It's one of the most challenging things to me as an individual investor but I've had that lesson beaten into my head from past mistakes I've made.  

[easilyscan]

20 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

Probably in for rough seas for awhile given where the VIX is.  Long term this should create some good buying opportunities, but as with market turbulence, you can make a good long term buy and end up in a pretty upside down position short term.  It's one of the most challenging things to me as an individual investor but I've had that lesson beaten into my head from past mistakes I've made.  

I learned that lesson in 2001 & 2002. One that comes to mind is a company that had something to do with cell phone towers. Seems like it was trading at $50 down $25 or about 33% from the previous close. I saw that it had been trading at $200 less than a year earlier. Thought to myself, wow, who are these fools selling a stock that was $200 less than a year ago. So I bought 200 shares and a month later it was down to $25

Who was the fool now ?

It taught me to always keep some money on the sidelines, but it also taught me to try and identify companies that were down simply because the market was throwing out the baby with the bathwater.