Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did multiple times now ***Official thread***

[seafoam1]

3 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

But you still haven’t offered any examples. 

 

[Hardcore troubadour]

6 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

California certainly had problems as you’ve noted. 

On the other hand, under Newsom it has grown from the 6th largest economy in the world to the 4th. Thats a fact that shouldn’t be ignored. If Newsom as President could stimulate anything close to that kind of economic growth it would certainly make his election worth it, no? 
 

And you still haven’t explained why, if liberal polices result in severe economic downturns as you claim, this hasn’t happened with any of the Presidents in recent history (actually I can’t think of it happening in the last 100 years- every economic recession or depression or stock market crash that I can recall has happened under a Republican President: 1929, 1932, 1958, 1973, 1987, 2006, 2020- all under Republicans. How do you account for this?) 

I thought back then the republicans were democrats and the democrats were republicans and didn’t switch till the 60’s?

[seafoam1]

4 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Covid was Biden’s mess to deal with, not Donald’s.

Who knows what Kamala or Gavin would have done. It’s all guess work. We can see what is going on now one year in and it’s mediocre at best.

It’s ok to be critical of the performance of your Orange King. It won’t hurt!

Get back to me when you know what year biden got sworn in and when the flu started in this country. 

[Caine Mutiny]

2 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Covid was Biden’s mess to deal with, not Donald’s.

Who knows what Kamala or Gavin would have done. It’s all guess work. We can see what is going on now one year in and it’s mediocre at best.

It’s ok to be critical of the performance of your Orange King. It won’t hurt!

In addition if we look at recent history it’s hard to predict what a Democrat would do with a stable economy since we have no good examples of it: 

1. In 1993 Bill Clinton took over an economy still suffering from the 1987 crash under a Republican President. 

2. In 2009 Obama took over a recession economy caused by the 2008 crash under a Republican President. 

3. In 2021 Biden took over a catastrophic economic situation caused by the Covid crisis (less the pandemic itself and more Trump’s calamitous reaction to it.) 

So we really don’t know what would happen if a Republican would turn over a good economy for once. Unfortunately the way things are going  we probably won’t find out in 2029 either. 

[thegeneral]

Just now, seafoam1 said:

Get back to me when you know what year biden got sworn in and when the flu started in this country. 

Yeah it was Biden’s mess to clean up. Do you not recall what was going on in Jan of 21?

Good grief.

[Gepetto]

32 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

Well if they’re not inconsistent then you should have no problem providing evidence to the contrary. We had 8 years of Obama as President and 4 of Biden over the last 16. When did the market perform poorly as a result of their policies? 

2022 - Joe Biden

[Caine Mutiny]

5 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

If you don't think nearly $2T in debt for one state is bad, then I can't help you. 

Your numbers and reasoning is based both sides of the isle's work in the economy. My examples of state leadership, or lack there of, is based upon people I would fear running this country. Let's watch New York over the next 3 years or so and see the mandami effect. 

Personally I don’t think the amount of debt is that important so long as the economy grows rapidly at the same time. 
But if you think this is a real issue then again I have to point out that, on a national basis, despite all the rhetoric, federal debt grows much more under Republican Presidents than they do under Democrats. This is especially true of our current President.

 

[Caine Mutiny]

6 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I thought back then the republicans were democrats and the democrats were republicans and didn’t switch till the 60’s?

This is somewhat true when it comes to racial issues. Not on economic issues. 

[WhiteWonder]

1 minute ago, Caine Mutiny said:

This is somewhat true when it comes to racial issues. Not on economic issues. 

the Hack got banned?

[Caine Mutiny]

2 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

2022 - Joe Biden

Yes there was a temporary downturn, nothing like the economic disasters of the past I noted or like @seafoam1 is predicting. And I’m not sure what Biden did to cause it. 

[Gepetto]

2022 Inflationary Bear Market: Driven by high inflation and rising interest rates, the S&P 500 entered a bear market, falling over 20% from its January 2022 peak.

[WhiteWonder]

7 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

 

3. In 2021 Biden took over a catastrophic economic situation caused by the Covid crisis (less the pandemic itself and more Trump’s calamitous reaction to it.) 

 

Not really.  Covid was going to cause a bad economic situation no matter who was in office but the main reason you missed here is that the economy was already recovering before Biden even took office. For example, the markets had rebounded and then some. Biden benefited greatly from economic tailwinds and still managed to dash those midway through 2021 and deep into 2022. 

[seafoam1]

7 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

This is somewhat true when it comes to racial issues. Not on economic issues. 

Ohhhh...now I get it. This guy buys into the liberals switched political parties with the republicans

This is why he's wrong on 90% he says. Liberal programming at work. 

Probably another princess rusty or timhack alias. 

[WhiteWonder]

3 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

And I’m not sure what Biden did to cause it. 

Mainly by doing next to nothing to address inflation and rather focusing on things like vote grab student loan forgiveness in the summer of 2022....  and intead, allowing the fed to address it with increasing interest rates. 

[Caine Mutiny]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

Ohhhh...now I get it. This guy buys into the liberals switched political parties with the republicans. 

This is why he's wrong on 90% he says. Liberal programming at work. 

Probably another princess rusty alias. 

I see. 
When you want to actually answer my questions, I’m here for you. 

[Caine Mutiny]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Not really.  Covid was going to cause a bad economic situation no matter who was in office but the main reason you missed here is that the economy was already recovering before Biden even took office. For example, the markets had rebounded and then some. Biden benefited greatly from economic tailwinds and still managed to dash those midway through 2021 and deep into 2022. 

This is a reasonable argument. I can accept your premise. 

[Hardcore troubadour]

11 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

This is somewhat true when it comes to racial issues. Not on economic issues. 

So the modern democrats are a combination of all the good governance policies of both parties. Got it. 

[WhiteWonder]

1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

They don’t sure don’t seem to enjoy Bozo’s tariffs. 

is this the same rhetoric from April, 2025? 

[thegeneral]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

Not really.  Covid was going to cause a bad economic situation no matter who was in office but the main reason you missed here is that the economy was already recovering before Biden even took office. For example, the markets had rebounded and then some. Biden benefited greatly from economic tailwinds and still managed to dash those midway through 2021 and deep into 2022. 

The markets by the end of Biden’s run were almost identical to Don 1.0.

Digging out from Covid caused issues around the globe. The economy did well In the US comparatively and continued to do well as inflation, which was a global issue, stabilized. It is doing by most measures the same or worse in the first year of Don 2.0, tomorrow night we will get the great gaslighting.

[Caine Mutiny]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

Mainly by doing next to nothing to address inflation and rather focusing on things like vote grab student loan forgiveness in the summer of 2022....  and intead, allowing the fed to address it with increasing interest rates. 

I agree with you that he didn’t address inflation. Neither has Trump. In truth it’s hard to address inflation. One hopes economic growth will make it go away or get better. I would argue that Trump’s two main policies- tarriffs and reducing both legal and illegal immigration- has made inflation worse. Would you agree? 

[Caine Mutiny]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So the modern democrats are a combination of all the good governance policies of both parties. Got it. 

Hardly. Why would you make that assumption from what I wrote? 

[thegeneral]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

is this the same rhetoric from April, 2025? 

It is. Bozo just relit the candle with his temper tantrum. People don’t seem to like his tariffs and chaos. This weekend he literally had a temper tantrum and put global tariffs of 10% then 15%. Aren’t those lower than tariffs in place in some places already?

Dude is a lunatic.

[seafoam1]

Fudging around with the numbers around the time of the chinese flu is all the liberals have. It is so easy to move them in one direction or the other. So I rely on looking how Trump wanted to handle it vs. how the liberals wanted to handle it. 

Trump wanted to close borders to isolate the covid, while biden and newsom and pelosi wanted open borders, they wanted organized public events in san francisco, they didn't want to, and didn't abide by their own rules of safety, and biden went into mud slinging.

Things went to shlt, and despite of them, we all knew that things would get better eventually, but the liberals focked up a lot of kids by keeping them out of schools, putting sick people into old folks homes and killing elderly, demanding cruises ship and not using them, and many other gaffes along the way. Oh, and our great transportation secretary was destroying ships, trains, and air travel. 

[WhiteWonder]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

The markets by the end of Biden’s run were almost identical to Don 1.0.

 

if you're talking overall, I would hope so. Actually I would have hoped better as the markets always go up in the long term. '21 and '22 were bad. '23 was good and '24 was pretty spotty until the markets popped post election.  

[Hardcore troubadour]

1 minute ago, Caine Mutiny said:

Hardly. Why would you make that assumption from what I wrote? 

So they didn’t change for better? 

[Caine Mutiny]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

So they didn’t change for better? 

I think modern Democrats have a lot of flawed, terrible policies. They certainly don’t represent all good ideas. Both conservatives and liberals have some good ideas and many bad ones. 

[thegeneral]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

if you're talking overall, I would hope so. Actually I would have hoped better as the markets always go up in the long term. '21 and '22 were bad. '23 was good and '24 was pretty spotty until the markets popped post election.  

Yes. Over all growth by percentage over their terms. Was something like 50% for Don and 48% for Biden.

Bozo runs his trap nonstop about this when they were pretty much identical.

[thegeneral]

5 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Fudging around with the numbers around the time of the chinese flu is all the liberals have. It is so easy to move them in one direction or the other. So I rely on looking how Trump wanted to handle it vs. how the liberals wanted to handle it. 

Trump wanted to close borders to isolate the covid, while biden and newsom and pelosi wanted open borders, they wanted organized public events in san francisco, they didn't want to, and didn't abide by their own rules of safety, and biden went into mud slinging.

Things went to shlt, and despite of them, we all knew that things would get better eventually, but the liberals focked up a lot of kids by keeping them out of schools, putting sick people into old folks homes and killing elderly, demanding cruise ship and not using them, and many other gaffes along the way. 

Biden actually had to deal with it dummy

[WhiteWonder]

2 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

I would argue that Trump’s two main policies- tarriffs and reducing both legal and illegal immigration- has made inflation worse. Would you agree? 

I would not. In the short term, possibly. The thing is, sometimes you have to actually take action.  It's still wild to me that so many dems supported reciprocal tariffs on China when Pelosi was proposing it, but now the concept of tariffs is catastrophic. It's a great example of TDS  (along with deportation).  I mean, holy hell.... less than 1 year ago we had people screaming that the sky was falling and tariffs were going to destroy the markets. They dipped and recovered like a month later and went on to set record highs. 

I'm sure you've seen the videos of all the dem presidents addressing undocumented immigrants. The hypocrisy (especially in comparison to Obama) is insane. 

[seafoam1]

10 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Yes. Over all growth by percentage over their terms. Was something like 50% for Don and 48% for Biden.

Bozo runs his trap nonstop about this when they were pretty much identical.

I don't think biden is running his mouth that much anymore. He can't stop drooling. 

It's kind of funny how you immediately switched the topic so you caould argue something else. 

The beginning of this where you joined in was when I said the following:

"Imagine a guy like Newsom being in office at this time instead of Trump. Or the kamaltoe."

[Hardcore troubadour]

10 minutes ago, Caine Mutiny said:

I think modern Democrats have a lot of flawed, terrible policies. They certainly don’t represent all good ideas. Both conservatives and liberals have some good ideas and many bad ones. 

Why do I have the feeling your focus will be one sided? New guy. Eye roll. 

[seafoam1]

Him picking and choosing what words he wants to redirect the topic towards while ignoring the rest is very timhacky like. 

And throw in "the democrats switched parties with republicans after the civil war". 

[thegeneral]

11 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I don't think biden is running his mouth that much anymore. He can't stop drooling. 

It's kind of funny how you immediately switched the topic so you caould argue something else. 

The beginning of this where you joined in was when I said the following:

"Imagine a guy like Newsom being in office at this time instead of Trump. Or the kamaltoe."

We don’t know what could have happened, you have your opinion.

We know what is happening…mediocrity.

[seafoam1]

Just now, thegeneral said:

We don’t know what could have happened, you have your opinion.

We know what is happening…mediocrity.

We get it. You are broke. You mentioned that many times already. 

[thegeneral]

5 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

We get it. You are broke. You mentioned that many times already. 

Been plowing money into the markets since 2000, wife does the same, no kiddos, own a home in Seattle. Things are pretty good here mailman!

[Mark Davis]

We've become spoiled to good markets lately.  We have some turbulence and get four pages of political back and forth over a 1% down day.  

[thegeneral]

3 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

We've become spoiled to good markets lately.  We have some turbulence and get four pages of political back and forth over a 1% down day.  

The original point was the markets don’t like this uncertainty. The President announcing global tariffs of first 10% and then a few hours later 15% is uncertainty and strange behavior.

You can’t say anything remotely negative about the President and his bizarre antics without Trump people losing their shet.

[Hardcore troubadour]

5 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

The original point was the markets don’t like this uncertainty. The President announcing global tariffs of first 10% and then a few hours later 15% is uncertainty and strange behavior.

You can’t say anything remotely negative about the President and his bizarre antics without Trump people losing their shet.

Yes.  We’re all Frantically pacing about. These falsehoods are more examples of the lefts dishonesty. 

[thegeneral]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

Yes.  We’re all Frantically pacing about. These falsehoods are more examples of the lefts dishonesty. 

You think businesses like having no clue what happens with tariffs on their products, that they are at the whim of this guy, they can change depending on his mood, they are now back to this limbo state where who the fock knows what happens. 

I’m sure it has nothing do with your undying love for Donald. 

[Mark Davis]

17 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

The original point was the markets don’t like this uncertainty. The President announcing global tariffs of first 10% and then a few hours later 15% is uncertainty and strange behavior.

You can’t say anything remotely negative about the President and his bizarre antics without Trump people losing their shet.

I guess, but it's not so much the tariffs as the AI implications that have really upset markets the past couple weeks.  There could be some of that in this today, but the markets right now are looking for excuses to sell off due to the AI unease.  When the VIX spiked up it this round that's what triggered it.  The rest is just noise right now but it looks like we are going to have choppy waters until some of the AI info is digested.