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Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did multiple times now ***Official thread***


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Posted
6 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

So you recommend never moving or changing retirement investments? Just keep the same funds from your 20s until the day you retire? Is that the advice you geniuses are giving?

I don’t care what people want to do with their money…but yeah that is pretty much the advice over the long term with light balancing as you age.

Here’s some evidence

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Posted
5 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I’m not your bud and I’m not going to make the effort to post all of my moves. The timing of my moves are all in this thread. Not going to discuss anymore with you. 

I don't blame you. I'd easily show you where your math is wrong. You can't claim making 10% because you've held bonds for a year missing out on more than 10% gains in equities.  

3 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

It’s completely beneficial to the thread to point out that going in and out of the market with your (hopefully sizeable) retirement portfolio is a fool’s errand.

The fact that the poster conveniently has perfect timing on moves that they only post about in the past tense is 99.9% likely BS, but more importantly, no one should do that. Posters calling that out are doing all thread participants a solid. 

100%  Hey I agree with this TDS riddled POS.  

2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

So you recommend never moving or changing retirement investments? Just keep the same funds from your 20s until the day you retire? Is that the advice you geniuses are giving?

No. Your asset allocation changes based on a combination of things, namely age, risk tolerance and your goals. If any of those change you might want to adjust your asset allocation accordingly. 

Never, never, never on your feelings or what you think might happen in the world. If you've set it up correctly you will be prepared to withstand any downturn...regardless of cause. And take advantage of it without the risk of guessing.  And profit when things are good.  

And for christ sake learn how to rebalance.  That automatically takes care of buying low and selling high without any guesswork.  

Posted

I've been watching General Mills (GIS) since the start of the year. Wall Street is taking food stocks behind the woodshed and pummeling them.

Just brutal.

So far, I've resisted the urge to bottom fish, but I'm weakening. 

Guess I'll go out storm chasing to take my mind off it. All the professional chasers like Reed Timmer are in my area (South Central Minnesota) today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

I've been watching General Mills (GIS) since the start of the year. Wall Street is taking food stocks behind the woodshed and pummeling them.

Just brutal.

So far, I've resisted the urge to bottom fish, but I'm weakening. 

Guess I'll go out storm chasing to take my mind off it. All the professional chasers like Reed Timmer are in my area (South Central Minnesota) today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

 

GLP1

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Posted
7 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

I've been watching General Mills (GIS) since the start of the year. Wall Street is taking food stocks behind the woodshed and pummeling them.

Just brutal.

So far, I've resisted the urge to bottom fish, but I'm weakening. 

Guess I'll go out storm chasing to take my mind off it. All the professional chasers like Reed Timmer are in my area (South Central Minnesota) today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

 

The staples and also the value/free cash flow picks are lagging in the recovery of that last downturn. Even though they weren’t punished as hard as the tech stocks, they are net lower right now when comparing baskets of each. 

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Posted
On 4/11/2026 at 5:39 PM, Gepetto said:

So you recommend never moving or changing retirement investments? Just keep the same funds from your 20s until the day you retire? Is that the advice you geniuses are giving?

How old are you.  Let’s start there.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

🚀🚀

More of this please. Hello AMZN approaching all time highs.

Sweet! 

Tuesday, April 14, 2026: Amazon announced a definitive agreement to acquire satellite operator Globalstar Inc. for approximately $10.8 billion to $11.6 billion

Posted
1 minute ago, easilyscan said:

Sweet! 

Tuesday, April 14, 2026: Amazon announced a definitive agreement to acquire satellite operator Globalstar Inc. for approximately $10.8 billion to $11.6 billion

an investment in gsat one year ago is a pretty healthy return, independent of any acquisition news. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

an investment in gsat one year ago is a pretty healthy return, independent of any acquisition news. 

I'll say! One year return over 300%

Posted
1 hour ago, JuneJuly said:

S&P hits all time record high. Time for the panicans to jump back in.  

Buy high, Sell low, is the only way to go.....lol

Added 100 AWK at $129.14

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Posted
9 hours ago, JuneJuly said:

S&P hits all time record high. Time for the panicans to jump back in.  

That's what usually happens.  If you were waiting on the Iran situation to resolve first you got left at the station.  I added a little on March 28 to my index funds, was prepared to do more and thought I might get that chance, but you just never know.  It took me forever to learn that the best time to buy is when everything out there is negative. 

But just look at the thread activity on those massive down days versus what we've seen this week.  You could hear a mouse fart in here this week and it was like dust bowl times were coming just a couple of weeks ago.  When things get turbulent people get nervous and weak hands get shook out and lose their money.  

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Posted

Polaris is strong today as the company said it doesn't expect tariff policy to impact it's 2026 outlook.
The company has a "significant" domestic manufacturing capacity, with facilities in Alabama, Indiana and Minnesota.

US companies making US products in the US avoid tariff pain.

Imagine that!

Bought 200 shares at $53.75 & sold May 15 $55.00 calls for $3.50

Best case scenario
        $53.75
          $1.25  Capital appreciation
          $3.50  Premium
          $0.00  Dividend
        $58.50   8.84% (1 Month)        
 

Posted
On 3/29/2026 at 7:01 PM, The Psychic Observer said:

Futures down

 

On 4/2/2026 at 9:24 AM, The Psychic Observer said:

Oil at $113

Btc at $65

Got an update?

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Posted

NFLX has been a run but people weren’t happy with earnings yesterday so stock took a 10% dump. Good time to pick up more if you have any faith in them.  I’m adding long term find it hard to believe this was the peak. 

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Posted
On 4/9/2026 at 10:09 AM, Grace Under Pressure said:

Market overall is a piece of shiot since Donnie Dumbass started meddling with things so his inner circle (not you) could benefit from insider trading. 

S&P in October 2025: 6900

Today: 6700

Good job MAGAts. All this dope needed to do was do nothing. Dumb rally goers (you) were brainwashed into thinking transgenders would take over or something similarly stupid. 

Update?

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Posted
1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

NFLX has been a run but people weren’t happy with earnings yesterday so stock took a 10% dump. Good time to pick up more if you have any faith in them.  I’m adding long term find it hard to believe this was the peak. 

Top line, bottom line, and net margins still looking great, although the site hasn't updated the most recent earnings report figures yet.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NFLX/netflix/revenue 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NFLX/netflix/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NFLX/netflix/profit-margins

 

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Posted

Applied Digital has been surging (Data centers)

Bought 300 shares at $31.69 & sold May 15 $32.00 calls for $3.32

Best case scenario
        $31.69
          $0.31  Capital appreciation
          $3.32  Premium
          $0.00  Dividend
        $35.32   11.45% (1 Month)    

Posted

Took a flyer on Jack in the box (JACK)

Bought 600 shares at $14.02 & sold May 15 $15 calls for $0.90

BCS 
        $14.02
          $0.98  Capital appreciation
          $0.90  Premium
          $0.00  Dividend
        $15.90   13.41% (1 Month)    

 

Very disappointed to see President Trump getting involved with spirit airlines. They were more concerned with things like the following than running a successful business and should be allowed to go under.

Spirit Airlines frequently celebrates LGBTQ+ Pride Month (often referred to within the industry in the context of Pride/LGBTQIA+ celebrations) during June by participating in events, such as the Wilton Manors Stonewall Pride Parade. 

Spirit Aviation Holdings, Inc. (FLYYQ)

 
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View Quote Details
2.4000+2.1300(+788.89%)

    

Posted
1 hour ago, nobody said:

Anyone notice the giant short squeeze on Avis?

Down 38% today after skyrocketing the last few months

I did notice that, but Isn't today's action the opposite of a short squeeze ?

A short squeeze on Wall Street is a rapid, intense increase in a stock's price, triggered when heavily shorted shares jump, forcing bears to buy back shares to limit losses.

Posted
1 hour ago, easilyscan said:

I did notice that, but Isn't today's action the opposite of a short squeeze ?

A short squeeze on Wall Street is a rapid, intense increase in a stock's price, triggered when heavily shorted shares jump, forcing bears to buy back shares to limit losses.

The short squeeze was the last few months.  Today wasn't the squeeze.

Posted

Interesting. I was looking at my 401k today and my 1 year ROR is 32%. This 401k transferred to Empower back in January 2023 and I can only see back to then without doing extra digging.  The annualized ROR since then is only 23%. So despite muh tariffs and Iran, this past year has outperformed the annual by 9% (the annual also being slightly propped up by the past 12 months)

Posted
On 4/22/2026 at 10:27 PM, easilyscan said:

I did notice that, but Isn't today's action the opposite of a short squeeze ?

A short squeeze on Wall Street is a rapid, intense increase in a stock's price, triggered when heavily shorted shares jump, forcing bears to buy back shares to limit losses.

that drop is just when a bunch of the buyers decide they made their bags.  like the gamestop stuff. gotta be in fairly early on a short squeeze. Not quite like a pump and dump, but if you watch a squeeze happening for 2 weeks or something, I wouldn't bother trying to get in at that point.

Posted
6 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Interesting. I was looking at my 401k today and my 1 year ROR is 32%. This 401k transferred to Empower back in January 2023 and I can only see back to then without doing extra digging.  The annualized ROR since then is only 23%. So despite muh tariffs and Iran, this past year has outperformed the annual by 9% (the annual also being slightly propped up by the past 12 months)

It's been a strong run.  Not just in the market, but in real estate as well.  Real estate since the pandemic has been absolutely incredible.  It has been a horrible time to be sitting in cash.  I'm raising my hand as having too much of it.  I have to keep reserves for business opportunities but wish I'd flown a little closer to the sun on that.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

It's been a strong run.  Not just in the market, but in real estate as well.  Real estate since the pandemic has been absolutely incredible.  It has been a horrible time to be sitting in cash.  I'm raising my hand as having too much of it.  I have to keep reserves for business opportunities but wish I'd flown a little closer to the sun on that.

yes but obviously my point was the past 12 months which have included both the tariff concerns as well as now Iran have still outperformed 2023 and 24 by a significant margin. Not that I was complaining back then, returns were still great

Posted
37 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

that drop is just when a bunch of the buyers decide they made their bags.  like the gamestop stuff. gotta be in fairly early on a short squeeze. Not quite like a pump and dump, but if you watch a squeeze happening for 2 weeks or something, I wouldn't bother trying to get in at that point.

Never had an interest in trying to catch the falling knife......but thanks.

I got bloodied plenty doing that in 2001, but it taught me a valuable lesson.

 

Bought 300 shares APOG @ $39.00 today with the intention of selling May 15 $40 calls @ $1.50

Immediately after I bought, profit takers came in so the order never filled.

Today's report was good, so I'm fairly confident I'll get another chance.

For fiscal 2027, the company expects adjusted EPS of $2.70 to $3.25, compared with the consensus estimate of $3.09, and revenue of $1.38 billion to $1.43 billion, versus expectations of $1.374 billion.

The Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend per share of 27 cents, payable on May 28, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 13, 2026.

 

 

 

 

Posted
36 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

yes but obviously my point was the past 12 months which have included both the tariff concerns as well as now Iran have still outperformed 2023 and 24 by a significant margin. Not that I was complaining back then, returns were still great

It’s been a great run, for years now since mid-2008 really. Looking at 12 months from today will def look extra spicy as we were in the steep trough at that point last April.

Posted
11 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Never had an interest in trying to catch the falling knife......but thanks.

I got bloodied plenty doing that in 2001, but it taught me a valuable lesson.

 

Bought 300 shares APOG @ $39.00 today with the intention of selling May 15 $40 calls @ $1.50

Immediately after I bought, profit takers came in so the order never filled.

Today's report was good, so I'm fairly confident I'll get another chance.

For fiscal 2027, the company expects adjusted EPS of $2.70 to $3.25, compared with the consensus estimate of $3.09, and revenue of $1.38 billion to $1.43 billion, versus expectations of $1.374 billion.

The Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend per share of 27 cents, payable on May 28, 2026, to shareholders of record as of May 13, 2026.

 

 

 

 

I don't really think of short squeezes as catching a falling knife. Most of the time, the stock tends to be relatively flat. They become targets because of the high short interest. You wouldn't really be buying during a sharp drop. More so buying once you see the rise begin (and not waiting too long)

I didn't look at Avis so no idea what the price action was before whatever short squeeze took place. 

 

edit: it looks like Avis was pretty flat for 2 months or so before this squeeze and relatively flat over the prior 5-6 months. If I had been aware it might happen (seen it on a short interest chart, read some rumblings about a squeeze, etc) i'd have probably bought in on April 2nd as it seems the squeeze started in earnest around March 30th. I would have cashed out by April 14th max. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

This is the greatest forum thread ever created. :pats_self_on_back: 

Has Tim ever posted here ?

If he hasn't, I agree 100% that it's the greatest forum thread ever created. 

 

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