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Gepetto

Stock Market bubble - will crash

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12 hours ago, nobody said:

Wasn't cdub the guy that said it was time to sell when the fed lowered interest rates in September.  

I mean...

Yes, I said that was a signal. 

I know you're trying to paint this in black and white. I've admitted I don't know what's going to happen—nobody does. I also haven't "sold" everything. I've DCA out of the market 10% the last four months. I am still 65% in stocks (if I include some other investments) I'm probably 80% still in stocks and 100% in crypto.

I agree with some of what @Horseman said

I started selling when the fed pivoted. Trump being president or Biden didn't mean anything to me. Only market conditions.

Unlike the dot com, housing bubble or covid crash. I believe the next major crash will be debt-driven.

 

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I hope Powell doesn't give into pressure from Trump regarding interest rates. I believe that historically low rates, which bottomed late in 2021, played a significant role in creating the inflation we're all dealing with today, & don't believe the job of the Federal Reserve is to coddle the markets.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/19/investing/markets-powell-trump/index.html

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16 hours ago, easilyscan said:

I hope Powell doesn't give into pressure from Trump regarding interest rates. I believe that historically low rates, which bottomed late in 2021, played a significant role in creating the inflation we're all dealing with today, & don't believe the job of the Federal Reserve is to coddle the markets.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/19/investing/markets-powell-trump/index.html

Cuts will lead to massive inflation

Not cutting will lead to hirer unemployment. 

Damned if they do damned if they don't

I honestly, think that's one reason DOGE is looking hard at government spending. If they can cut that it will help lower inflation allowing them to cut rates faster.

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8 hours ago, The Phantom's Phantom said:

Back to pre election Day levels now.  How much lower will we go?

Much lower.

 

Slowly... then all at once.

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42 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Much lower.

 

Slowly... then all at once.

Oh yeah.  It’s coming.  Just too much bad debt out there. Biden really screwed us. 

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Just now, thegeneral said:

This Trump guy stinks. Bring back mumbling Joe!

Another libtard that doesn't know who the president is. 😆

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Tesla taking it in the arse today. When it neared $470 mid December, I figured it was ahead of itself by at least $100. It's currently $377. I've always been astounded by momentum traders. They were buying heavily @ $470 without realizing that it had gone up 100% since November 5th based on nothing more than the fact that Trump won the election & Elon is tight with him. 

The markets, unlike the rest of society, takes no prisoners. You fock up, and they take you behind the woodshed. 

 

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1 minute ago, easilyscan said:

Tesla taking it in the arse today. When it neared $470 mid December, I figured it was ahead of itself by at least $100. It's currently $377. I've always been astounded by momentum traders. They were buying heavily @ $470 without realizing that it had gone up 100% since November 5th based on nothing more than the fact that Trump won the election & Elon is tight with him. 

The markets, unlike the rest of society, takes no prisoners. You fock up, and they take you behind the woodshed. 

 

Yep. They just reported their first annual decline in a dozen years on car sales. Elon pissing off many potential customers, lots of competition. 

Lots of people made a nice tidy profit though on that crazy run up.

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7 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Lots of people made a nice tidy profit though on that crazy run up.

They sure did, but trades are like a coin, they have 2 sides. Lots of people had their arse handed to them as well. 

While we're on the subject of taking it in the arse, that's exactly what yours truly will be doing come April 15

Owned a telecom stock that was scheduled to be taken private sometime during the first quarter of 2025. Had all my ducks in a row as far as capital gains/losses in my large taxable account. Lo & behold, with no prior announcement, the deal was finalized on the last trading day of 2024 resulting in unexpected capital gains. Fockers!

 

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1 minute ago, easilyscan said:

They sure did, but trades are like a coin, they have 2 sides. Lots of people had their arse handed to them as well. 

While we're on the subject of taking it in the arse, that's exactly what yours truly will be doing come April 15

Owned a telecom stock that was scheduled to be taken private sometime during the first quarter of 2025. Had all my ducks in a row as far as capital gains/losses in my large taxable account. Lo & behold, with no prior announcement, the deal was finalized on the last trading day of 2024 resulting in unexpected capital gains. Fockers!

 

Things could be worse. Congrats on some nice profits!

 

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47 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Things could be worse. Congrats on some nice profits!

Thanks. I should've been more specific. My mistake. Paying tax on the capital gains isn't an issue. The problem is the unexpected CG's will affect my healthcare premiums for the year.

The last time something like this happened was 2018. I went over the 'income cliff' by a mere $240. That changed my federal return from a refund of $150, to owing $5496.00

 

 

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11 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Thanks. I should've been more specific. My mistake. Paying tax on the capital gains isn't an issue. The problem is the unexpected CG's will affect my healthcare premiums for the year.

The last time something like this happened was 2018. I went over the 'income cliff' by a mere $240. That changed my federal return from a refund of $150, to owing $5496.00

 

 

Ah that sucks. Especially when you had it all planned out.

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1 hour ago, easilyscan said:

Nice to see it back up around all-time highs. Q4 earnings will be interesting. I think what caused the pause was YOY revenue growth slowing the last 2 quarters.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/revenue

 

 

That and profit taking on a stock that is up like 200% over the past year. It was borderline meme stock there for a bit.  

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Slowly...

Might be a good time to take some profits if you're still up

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On 1/21/2025 at 4:46 PM, thegeneral said:

NFLX 🚀🚀🚀

That’s how you kick off earnings season. Like a boss

Congrats if you own it. Wish I could say I did. Apples problems are fairly clear, they aren't growing. At least not the way they have in the past.

Top line (revenues) are pretty much flat since Q1 2022

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/revenue

Bottom line (TTM-EPS) is the same as Q4 2021 & were down 34% YOY in Q3 2024

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted

Add the fact that if it wasn't for the massive share buybacks, both would be down substantially, IMHO, it shouldn't be selling at 37 x earnings & is still overpriced. 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Congrats if you own it. Wish I could say I did. Apples problems are fairly clear, they aren't growing. At least not the way they have in the past.

Top line (revenues) are pretty much flat since Q1 2022

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/revenue

Bottom line (TTM-EPS) is the same as Q4 2021 & were down 34% YOY in Q3 2024

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/eps-earnings-per-share-diluted

Add the fact that if it wasn't for the massive share buybacks, both would be down substantially, IMHO, it shouldn't be selling at 37 x earnings & is still overpriced. 

I’m free rolling with a decent amount of shares so haven’t really thought about selling but you make some decent points on dumping some.

I do like them as a company long term.

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33 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I’m free rolling with a decent amount of shares so haven’t really thought about selling but you make some decent points on dumping some.

I do like them as a company long term.

I've owned it for 17 years and have no plans to sell either. I'm just not overly bullish at this time as they seem to have hit a wall. Still a great company, they just need to invent the next big thing.

I went through 3 windows based PCs from 1997 to 2008. All rendered worthless by viruses, in spite of purchasing the best antivirus/security software for all of them every year. In 2008, I bought a new iMac 21" desktop. Never purchased any additional virus/security software and it performed flawlessly until 10.5 years later, when the hard drive died. Bought another in November 2018 and it's still going strong. 

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On 1/2/2025 at 3:11 PM, thegeneral said:

This Trump guy stinks. Bring back mumbling Joe!

Update?

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3 hours ago, thegeneral said:

We are back! 🚀🚀

If only AAPL wasn’t sucking.

I don't buy individual stocks much anymore.  And when I did I never bought companies I didn't believe in. Apple products suck.  

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24 minutes ago, Horseman said:

I don't buy individual stocks much anymore.  And when I did I never bought companies I didn't believe in. Apple products suck.  

Good for you 😂

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6 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Good for you 😂

You're the one crying about AAPL.   :dunno:

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5 minutes ago, Horseman said:

You're the one crying about AAPL.   :dunno:

People who think that others should do as they are doing and are lashing out about it, are desperately in need of company. Misery loves company. 

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39 minutes ago, Horseman said:

You're the one crying about AAPL.   :dunno:

It’s up like 15% over past year, 200% over past couple years, 600% over past 10. It’s in prolly in like half the funds out there. About as safe a bet as there is with nice growth still. I’ll be ok!

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37 minutes ago, jbycho said:

People who think that others should do as they are doing and are lashing out about it, are desperately in need of company. Misery loves company. 

One of the dumber posts today, Peefoam 😂

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11 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

It’s up like 15% over past year, 200% over past couple years, 600% over past 10. It’s in prolly in like half the funds out there. About as safe a bet as there is with nice growth still. I’ll be ok!

Lol half.  Its in the vast majority of equity funds out there.  But that's not a reason to buy it.   

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3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Lol half.  It’s in the vast majority of equity funds out there.  But that's not a reason to buy it.   

Earnings next Thursday 🍿

Another 5% drop and time to pick up some more!

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1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

Earnings next Thursday 🍿

Another 5% drop and time to pick up some more!

Great job investing before a drop in the stock price. That's what you want to do with your money. 

  • Haha 1

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7 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Great job investing before a drop in the stock price. That's what you want to do with your money. 

Thanks EF Hutton!

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