jbycho 365 Posted January 24 2 hours ago, thegeneral said: One of the dumber posts today, Peefoam Yep. Misery desires company. You may want to look toward the other broke libs in this site. Birds of a feather and all... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,671 Posted January 24 26 minutes ago, jbycho said: Yep. Misery desires company. You may want to look toward the other broke libs in this site. Birds of a feather and all... If you need a loan to make rent let me know, Peefoam! Â Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbycho 365 Posted January 24 26 minutes ago, thegeneral said: If you need a loan to make rent let me know, Peefoam!  Are you ill or something? You come across like that weepaws guy? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 25 16 hours ago, thegeneral said: If you need a loan to make rent let me know, Peefoam!  Serious question for you and others in this thread like @easilyscan. You have 500K cash to invest right now, with equities at all time highs, fixed income pretty much flat the last few years with interest rates expected to drop. What do you do?  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,671 Posted January 25 52 minutes ago, Horseman said: Serious question for you and others in this thread like @easilyscan. You have 500K cash to invest right now, with equities at all time highs, fixed income pretty much flat the last few years with interest rates expected to drop. What do you do?  Non shtick answer from me is nothing earth shattering. I go tried and true. Equities (50-60%): leaning into AI, infrastructure, energy / energy support, and financials Bonds (20-30%) Alternative Investments (10-20%) Crypto, REITS, etc. Cash/Short-Term Investments (5%) Percentages shift based on risk. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Horseman said: Serious question for you and others in this thread like @easilyscan. You have 500K cash to invest right now, with equities at all time highs, fixed income pretty much flat the last few years with interest rates expected to drop. What do you do?  500k in bitcoin ETF or 100k VRT 100k Nvidia 100k Microsoft 100k FDVV 100k VST Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frank 2,261 Posted January 25 3 hours ago, Horseman said: Serious question for you and others in this thread like @easilyscan. You have 500K cash to invest right now, with equities at all time highs, fixed income pretty much flat the last few years with interest rates expected to drop. What do you do?   Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 14,546 Posted January 25 I saw a story from back in the day where some guy bought a pizza for 10k bitcoins. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 25 29 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: I saw a story from back in the day where some guy bought a pizza for 10k bitcoins. That's a billion dollar pizza. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 25 4 hours ago, thegeneral said: Non shtick answer from me is nothing earth shattering. I go tried and true. Equities (50-60%): leaning into AI, infrastructure, energy / energy support, and financials Bonds (20-30%) Alternative Investments (10-20%) Crypto, REITS, etc. Cash/Short-Term Investments (5%) Percentages shift based on risk. I wasn't asking for your asset allocation, but, thanks for trying. You'd need to know my investment timelines and more importantly my risk tolerance to suggest an asset Allocation for me.  For you, assuming you're not retiring soon, that's a high percentage of bonds. But, I get it trying to take advantage of falling interest rates and safeguard for the booming equities that can't last forever.  I also wouldn't count REITs lumped in to alternate. They are separate and should be 20% on their own for diversification, plus they're due a comeback. I don't think you need other alternates, Crypto, gold, etc, as they don't act much different than the US dollar. But, you have a while if you want to roll the dice. I'd keep it at 5% or less though but that's just me.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Cdub100 said: 500k in bitcoin ETF or 100k VRT 100k Nvidia 100k Microsoft 100k FDVV 100k VST BTC Ah, no.  Moving into money preservation because of retirement. Not gambling.  VST is very investing, love energy stocks, but, moving away from individual companies.  FDVV is a viable candidate, need to chart it against my other high dividend index funds. Thanks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 25 Just now, Horseman said: BTC Ah, no.  Moving into money preservation because of retirement. Not gambling.  To be clear, there is no better money preservation than Bitcoin. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: To be clear, there is no better money preservation than Bitcoin. I fully understand you believe that. I don't but wish you the best. I'll stick with proven investment strategies and diversification. The crypto I have is only a few tenths of one percent and will stay that way. Especially after this run up. But, it doesn't look like the current administration is going to be standing in the way so that's good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, Horseman said: I fully understand you believe that. I don't but wish you the best. I'll stick with proven investment strategies and diversification. The crypto I have is only a few tenths of one percent and will stay that way. Especially after this run up. But, it doesn't look like the current administration is going to be standing in the way so that's good. Again, to be clear Bitcoin has a proven history of being the best store of value. It's not just a belief but proven. Even the big firms are recommending 5% allocation into bitcoin. So if you are diversifying your money you should have some in bitcoin. BTW I'm recommending bitcoin NOT crypto, because there is a difference. Maybe it's not for you, and I understand that but I'd like to see you not get left behind. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Again, to be clear Bitcoin has a proven history of being the best store of value. It's not just a belief but proven. Even the big firms are recommending 5% allocation into bitcoin. So if you are diversifying your money you should have some in bitcoin. BTW I'm recommending bitcoin NOT crypto, because there is a difference. Maybe it's not for you, and I understand that but I'd like to see you not get left behind. Link to the big firms. Vanguard and the boggleheads don't even recognize it as a viable investment. They won't even create an ETF for it like some of the others have.  And let's be clear. Vanguard is the standard for low cost, treating investors as if they are owners of Vanguard and the creators of index fund investing. The other big guys have come around, but that's because they had to to compete with Vanguard, they just as soon sell you something else they can make big fees off of.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 25 Want an example? Fidelity is offering 0% for you to buy up FBTC. But they plan to switch to 0.25% expense ratio. For a foking index ETF. That's highway robery taking advantage of dumb investors getting sucked into BTC.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beaker15 204 Posted January 25 13 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Again, to be clear Bitcoin has a proven history of being the best store of value. It's not just a belief but proven. Even the big firms are recommending 5% allocation into bitcoin. So if you are diversifying your money you should have some in bitcoin. BTW I'm recommending bitcoin NOT crypto, because there is a difference. Maybe it's not for you, and I understand that but I'd like to see you not get left behind. None of the big firms are even allowing their advisors to buy bitcoin etfs let alone recommend them. Too volatile and risky. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Horseman said: Link to the big firms. Vanguard and the boggleheads don't even recognize it as a viable investment. They won't even create an ETF for it like some of the others have.  And let's be clear. Vanguard is the standard for low cost, treating investors as if they are owners of Vanguard and the creators of index fund investing. The other big guys have come around, but that's because they had to to compete with Vanguard, they just as soon sell you something else they can make big fees off of.  BlackRock: Recommends a starting allocation of 2% for Bitcoin in investment portfolios. This small weighting is suggested to operate as a separate risk driver in a balanced allocation. Beyond 2%, Bitcoin’s volatility could contribute an outsized share of total risk, potentially overshadowing other components. https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/bitcoin-unique-diversifier JP Morgan: Strategists at JP Morgan recommend adding up to 1% of an investor’s allocation to cryptocurrencies in a multi-asset portfolio to achieve any efficiency gain in the overall risk-adjusted returns. This recommendation is based on Bitcoin’s potential as a diversifier and a hedge. https://cointelegraph.com/news/jpmorgan-report-endorses-1-allocation-to-bitcoin-as-a-hedge Fidelity Investments: Suggests an allocation of 2% to 5% for investors who want to hedge against inflation and include alternative investments in their portfolios. This range is believed to have an outsized positive impact in an optimistic adoption scenario. https://institutional.fidelity.com/advisors/insights/topics/investing-ideas/the-case-for-bitcoin Grayscale: Proposes a 5% allocation for investors with a moderate risk appetite, highlighting Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against certain risks. https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-role-of-crypto-in-a-portfolio Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Beaker15 said: None of the big firms are even allowing their advisors to buy bitcoin etfs let alone recommend them. Too volatile and risky. Easily proven false with a quick search. Very first link https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/morgan-stanley-wealth-advisors-bitcoin-etfs.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 1,223 Posted January 25 Stop cr@pping all over my thread talking about bitcoin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 26 38 minutes ago, Gepetto said: Stop cr@pping all over my thread talking about bitcoin. Trying to keep you guys from being poor. Yall need to get with the times. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 1,223 Posted January 26 8 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Trying to keep you guys from being poor. Yall need to get with the times. Didn't you lose a sh!t ton of money on bitcoin in the last year? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Gepetto said: Didn't you lose a sh!t ton of money on bitcoin in the last year? No I didn't lose a sh1t ton of money on bitcoin in the last year. I've never lost money on bitcoin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 26 2 hours ago, Cdub100 said: BlackRock: Recommends a starting allocation of 2% for Bitcoin in investment portfolios. This small weighting is suggested to operate as a separate risk driver in a balanced allocation. Beyond 2%, Bitcoin’s volatility could contribute an outsized share of total risk, potentially overshadowing other components. https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/bitcoin-unique-diversifier JP Morgan: Strategists at JP Morgan recommend adding up to 1% of an investor’s allocation to cryptocurrencies in a multi-asset portfolio to achieve any efficiency gain in the overall risk-adjusted returns. This recommendation is based on Bitcoin’s potential as a diversifier and a hedge. https://cointelegraph.com/news/jpmorgan-report-endorses-1-allocation-to-bitcoin-as-a-hedge Fidelity Investments: Suggests an allocation of 2% to 5% for investors who want to hedge against inflation and include alternative investments in their portfolios. This range is believed to have an outsized positive impact in an optimistic adoption scenario. https://institutional.fidelity.com/advisors/insights/topics/investing-ideas/the-case-for-bitcoin Grayscale: Proposes a 5% allocation for investors with a moderate risk appetite, highlighting Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against certain risks. https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-role-of-crypto-in-a-portfolio 2% for the best store of value does not calculate.  Like I said they'll gladly sell you an index of grandma's chits for 0.25%.   Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 756 Posted January 26 9 hours ago, Horseman said: Serious question for you and others in this thread like @easilyscan. You have 500K cash to invest right now, with equities at all time highs, fixed income pretty much flat the last few years with interest rates expected to drop. What do you do?  Knowing that you're moving into money preservation mode is helpful. You also pointed out you're not interested in asset allocation. With that in mind, here's my $0.02  I'm currently earning 4.01% for my cash @ Fidelity. Since you're in wealth preservation mode, I don't think it would be that bad of an idea to keep 200 K of the 500 total in cash. I can already hear the doubters………… the S&P 500 has an annualized return of 13% over the past 10 years, 4% won't even keep up with inflation, interest rates are going down, etc. I get it, but once you get to the point where you’re near retirement, & know you have enough to live on, & just want to preserve it, you're not willing to take that much risk.  I like Cdub100’s recommendation of FDVV. I own a similar ETF Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) his offers a higher dividend yield. I also own Fidelity Utilities Index (FUTY) This might be a simplified way of thinking, but it seems that if we ever went into a long lasting recession or worse, these companies would hold their own. As much as they'd hate to, people would give up plenty of the other luxuries, if it meant keeping the lights on, keeping them cool in the summer, warm in the winter, etc Since you like Energy, but don't like individual stocks, there's plenty of low expense ratio ETFs available as well.   All I know about bonds is what a very knowledgeable ‘old guy’ at work told me back in the 90s. The bond market loves bad news. A Google search backs that up.During the 11 recessions the US has endured since 1950, stocks have historically fallen an average of 15% a year. But bonds have historically thrived when the economy has contracted. In every recession since 1950, bonds have delivered higher returns than stocks & cash.  Doesn't sound like you're interested in bitcoin or crypto, so I won't touch on that. Other sectors I like Solar: I've held First Solar (FSLR) since 2017. Shares have been beaten down lately, but not for any fundamental reason. They've dropped on fears that President Trump might push to eliminate subsidies. Believe it or not I agree. Since subsidies began, solar revenues are up over 10 times. I personally feel it's time they leave the governments nest, but I think when push comes to shove, the lobbyists will win out & the subsidies will remain in place. Since you're not a fan of individual stocks, there’s a solar ETF. Invesco Solar (TAN)  Special Situations: Late in 2020, oil futures briefly traded negative. I was aware of a refiner called Valero Energy. It dropped to the mid 30s briefly. I wanted to buy, but didn’t. It currently trades at $139 and was as high as $180 this past April. If you pay attention to the markets, it's always nice to have cash on hand to take advantage of those opportunities.  Amazing to look at 5 year charts of quality companies & see how many of them made a V-shaped bottom in March 2020 when the whole world was in a panic. Maybe the bird flu will present another opportunity like that ....haha  Something else that needs to be pointed out is timing. I recommended FUTY, which is currently trading at $51 I've done well because I purchased the vast majority of my shares at opportune times Jan-24-2024 $38.65 & Oct-02-2023 $36.01  If you were to invest in any of the ETFs/funds mentioned/recommended in this thread, keep in mind that there's always the possibility you could be buying at the top. Might be better to dollar cost average. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 26 43 minutes ago, Horseman said: 2% for the best store of value does not calculate.  Like I said they'll gladly sell you an index of grandma's chits for 0.25%.   Look dude I don't need to sell you on it. I was just trying to help you understand some of the misinformation you have. Buy it don't buy it I don't care. But BlackRock is buying billions of dollars. Fidelity is buying billions. So honestly they don't want you buying it. Because they want to buy it. Anyway have a good weekend. See you in 10 years when BTC is over a million per coin. That's your money preservation Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,521 Posted January 26 When inflation went crazy, didn't Bitcoin drop like 60% or something? I know it came back, but I wouldn't call that a store of value.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, nobody said: When inflation went crazy, didn't Bitcoin drop like 60% or something? I know it came back, but I wouldn't call that a store of value.  In 2010, 10,000 bitcoin bought 2 large pizzas. In 2025 10,000 bitcoin can buy Pizza Hut... the whole focking company. You don't call that a store of value? Seriously WTF are you talking about? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strike 4,984 Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: In 2010, 10,000 bitcoin bought 2 large pizzas. In 2025 10,000 bitcoin can buy Pizza Hut... the whole focking company. You don't call that a store of value? Seriously WTF are you talking about? Pretty much any investment recovers with time. I think when people say store of value they are looking for reasonable returns without volatility.  I don't think that applies to Bitcoin or Crypto in general. For someone not trying to convince anyone you sure are trying hard. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, Strike said: Pretty much any investment recovers with time. I think when people say store of value they are looking for reasonable returns without volatility.  I don't think that applies to Bitcoin or Crypto in general. For someone not trying to convince anyone you sure are trying hard. That's fine, but everything has some volatility. The Bitcoin isn't a store of value argument is so absurd it blows my mind. The history and chart says it all. Anyway you're right. I'm gonna back out before someone says tulips.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strike 4,984 Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: That's fine, but everything has some volatility. The Bitcoin isn't a store of value argument is so absurd it blows my mind. The history and chart says it all. Anyway you're right. I'm gonna back out before someone says tulips.  Uh, no. It's not a store of value. It's like you didn't even read my post lol     Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,155 Posted January 26 1 hour ago, easilyscan said: Knowing that you're moving into money preservation mode is helpful. You also pointed out you're not interested in asset allocation. With that in mind, here's my $0.02  I'm currently earning 4.01% for my cash @ Fidelity. Since you're in wealth preservation mode, I don't think it would be that bad of an idea to keep 200 K of the 500 total in cash. I can already hear the doubters………… the S&P 500 has an annualized return of 13% over the past 10 years, 4% won't even keep up with inflation, interest rates are going down, etc. I get it, but once you get to the point where you’re near retirement, & know you have enough to live on, & just want to preserve it, you're not willing to take that much risk.  I like Cdub100’s recommendation of FDVV. I own a similar ETF Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) his offers a higher dividend yield. I also own Fidelity Utilities Index (FUTY) This might be a simplified way of thinking, but it seems that if we ever went into a long lasting recession or worse, these companies would hold their own. As much as they'd hate to, people would give up plenty of the other luxuries, if it meant keeping the lights on, keeping them cool in the summer, warm in the winter, etc Since you like Energy, but don't like individual stocks, there's plenty of low expense ratio ETFs available as well.   All I know about bonds is what a very knowledgeable ‘old guy’ at work told me back in the 90s. The bond market loves bad news. A Google search backs that up.During the 11 recessions the US has endured since 1950, stocks have historically fallen an average of 15% a year. But bonds have historically thrived when the economy has contracted. In every recession since 1950, bonds have delivered higher returns than stocks & cash.  Doesn't sound like you're interested in bitcoin or crypto, so I won't touch on that. Other sectors I like Solar: I've held First Solar (FSLR) since 2017. Shares have been beaten down lately, but not for any fundamental reason. They've dropped on fears that President Trump might push to eliminate subsidies. Believe it or not I agree. Since subsidies began, solar revenues are up over 10 times. I personally feel it's time they leave the governments nest, but I think when push comes to shove, the lobbyists will win out & the subsidies will remain in place. Since you're not a fan of individual stocks, there’s a solar ETF. Invesco Solar (TAN)  Special Situations: Late in 2020, oil futures briefly traded negative. I was aware of a refiner called Valero Energy. It dropped to the mid 30s briefly. I wanted to buy, but didn’t. It currently trades at $139 and was as high as $180 this past April. If you pay attention to the markets, it's always nice to have cash on hand to take advantage of those opportunities.  Amazing to look at 5 year charts of quality companies & see how many of them made a V-shaped bottom in March 2020 when the whole world was in a panic. Maybe the bird flu will present another opportunity like that ....haha  Something else that needs to be pointed out is timing. I recommended FUTY, which is currently trading at $51 I've done well because I purchased the vast majority of my shares at opportune times Jan-24-2024 $38.65 & Oct-02-2023 $36.01  If you were to invest in any of the ETFs/funds mentioned/recommended in this thread, keep in mind that there's always the possibility you could be buying at the top. Might be better to dollar cost average. Here is a good post. Thanks. I already have quite a bit more than that in cash earmarked to sit there at least 1-2 years, on one hand hoping interest rates stay high. Thus the delema.  Going to take a good look at VIG and FUTY. And already thinking DCA since it's a fair amount of cash.  Not touching FSLR or TAN. I briefly thought TAN might be a good idea at the start of the green energy administration. It wasn't, and it's the opposite now.  I bought all the way down in 2020 wishing I had more cash to invest. Not hoping for another covid, but, wouldn't mind seeing a healthy correction.  One thing I need to expand on is municipal bonds since I can't get anymore flipped into Roth. It's all taxable.  I have VTEB, VTES and some expiritory ETFs that I can't remember right now that act as bond ladders 1 and 2 years out.   Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,521 Posted January 26 1 hour ago, Cdub100 said: In 2010, 10,000 bitcoin bought 2 large pizzas. In 2025 10,000 bitcoin can buy Pizza Hut... the whole focking company. You don't call that a store of value? Seriously WTF are you talking about? We obviously have different definitions of "store of value" It's a volatile, speculative asset. Just because it went up doesn't mean it's a store of value. That would be gold, art, inflation protected bonds, etc at least in my mind. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,521 Posted January 26 So we have one cryptobro that thinks Bitcoin replacing fiat currency would be good for the economy and another that thinks something that drops over 50% in a recession is a store of value.  Man, it's hard to take crypto seriously when these are the acolytes.  1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beaker15 204 Posted January 26 6 hours ago, Cdub100 said: Easily proven false with a quick search. Very first link https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/morgan-stanley-wealth-advisors-bitcoin-etfs.html Thanks. That is news to me as Merrill and UBS do not allow it. Well, I know UBS does not and Merrill did not allow it but could have changed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 756 Posted January 27 Brutal day for anything tech/AI related. My big losers are Powell industries, Nvidia, & Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) Not sure if it's just a one day thing, but sector rotation is helping other stocks I own in out of favor sectors. Thanks to that, my total portfolio is actually up 0.31% as a type. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,753 Posted January 27 Obviously I'm heavy tech. I don't think I've ever seen a stock down 30% in one day. Today was brutal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kilroy69 1,186 Posted January 27 48 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Obviously I'm heavy tech. I don't think I've ever seen a stock down 30% in one day. Today was brutal. A pretty big over reaction to the fact that the chinese are literally ALWAYS going to be able to do things cheaper. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 756 Posted January 27 47 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Obviously I'm heavy tech. I don't think I've ever seen a stock down 30% in one day. Today was brutal. I hear ya........ Those 2Â stocks & the ETF I mentioned are down 16% 17% & 25%Â Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,671 Posted January 27 53 minutes ago, easilyscan said: Brutal day for anything tech/AI related. My big losers are Powell industries, Nvidia, & Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) Not sure if it's just a one day thing, but sector rotation is helping other stocks I own in out of favor sectors. Thanks to that, my total portfolio is actually up 0.31% as a type. Woke up to seeing the news about this Chinese AI. Was not looking forward to checking But yeah outside of these heavy hitters in AI wasn’t terrible. If the Chinese AI stuff, DeepSeek, is overblown then will be a small blip. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
