The guy I’m most interested to see in the 2022 rankings is…

[weepaws 2,717]

Or he has a stat line of , 119/88/880/6.  That’s 212 ppr points and he’s right around wr 24-26.  

[lesjroza 70]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Yeah, that's about what I would expect.  So let's say 7.5 targets in 17 games = 127.5 targets on the year, at his current 75% catch rate that would be 96 receptions, at his current rate of 10.1 ypc, that makes 970 yards, and then let's say a TD every other week instead of every week, for 8 TDs, and you have 96+97+48 = 241 PPR points, slotting him in around WR15 or so.  There are usually about that many WRs taken in the first 3 rounds, so St. Brown is potentially a 3rd round pick, but should definitely be gone by the end of the 4th.

Pending, of course, the offseason...

 

Ok, don't think this is my last post on Brown because you convinced me, or because I'm letting you get away with penciling him in for 8 TDs next year (2021 Tyreek 9, Diggs 10, Cooper/Lockett/Diontae 8). We'll just agree to disagree and enjoy a solid debate.

Honestly, I thought my take was obvious, but the pushback from you and some others I respect here does give me a bit of pause. That's as far as I'll go though, I'm not taking action and its very unlikely Brown will be on any teams I draft this year. I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct. Cheers! 

 

 

[AxeElf 787]

30 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct.

It's highly likely that the situation will change even before the beginning of next season, let alone by the time we know how next season turns out, so it would be kind of apples and oranges to compare what we would do if we were drafting tomorrow with what we would do with the information we'll have next August.

I'm just kind of boggled that a player who went on an absolute tear--averaging about 20 PPR pts per week to become a top 5 WR over the back half of his rookie season--wouldn't be considered a de facto fantasy starter in his second season, at least before seeing what changes the offseason may bring--and not touching him until the 8th round with the knowledge we have right now is just nuts.

[WhiteWonder 2,409]

7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I agree with much of this.

not sure they will draft a new QB. 

if you look at Goffs numbers and pro rate for a full season to account for the missed games and note that he really didn't have anybody to throw the ball to at WR at the beginning of the year, he had a pretty nice season playing on a terrible team with a terrible Defense that cant get off the field.

If I was the GM there I'd invest in the line (both O line and D line) and I'd get a WR in the first 2 rounds of this draft if possible.    A difference maker on Defense would be nice too but you cant get everything.  do we know how many draft picks they have this year?

I do agree Amon Ra may have exploded because there was nobody else to throw to.   that is certainly a possibility.  so if they bring in someone via trade or draft, he may not do nearly as well as some here expect.   its a legitimate risk.

hes definitely a player to watch, but I wouldn't touch the guy in the first 3 (possibly first 4) rounds.   After that it likely depends on how his camp went and how those offseason developments for the team affect his place in the pecking order.

 

 

 

what you quoted was not my sentiment. I had responded TO that quote. 

[Ray_T 679]

10 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

 

what you quoted was not my sentiment. I had responded TO that quote. 

fair enough.   I was more presenting  my opinion as part of the greater conversation.   The quote was so people knew which part of the convo I was chiming in on.

 

[Ray_T 679]

On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2022 at 7:49 AM, weepaws said:

Yea I don’t think taking St Brown in the first three rounds would be a wise choice.  

this.

 

even if you strongly feel hes going to put up that kind of production, before you go into the draft room you find out where his ADP is sitting.

if its sitting around 61 (for example) that would place him at the end of the 5th or early 6th round in a 12 team league.

if you wanna get him, I'd target him the round before (so around pick 48 give or take a few slots)   that would be 1 full round sooner than hes projected to go.  in this case, that would be around the end of round 4 give or take a few picks.

so if that is the case, why would you take him in round 2 or 3?  

its like buying a honda civic.  good car. nothing wrong with it, but there is no need to pay the price of a Cadillac.

by drafting this guy in round 2 or 3, that's exactly what you are doing.

even if he produces at that level, the smart move is to pick someone else in round 2 or 3 (or both) grab him in round 4.

You need patience.  that's how you win drafts.  and if he slides down to round 4 and you get him, you also would have some other top 3 round players that you acquired with the earlier picks.

you do not often win by overpaying for players.   Unless that player even exceeds even your own projections the move usually backfires.

 

 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

why would you take him in round 2 or 3?

Because he's more likely to have a 2nd or 3rd round ADP.

Sure, it's nice to pick top 5 WRs in the 6th or 7th round, but a lot of owners tend to stock up on top 10 players early, making it much more difficult to take them in the later rounds.

[weepaws 2,717]

He’s not going to have a round 2-3 adp

[Ray_T 679]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

He’s not going to have a round 2-3 adp

well, if the team does not draft or sign a WR and talks him up like hes gonna be the #1, and if he has a great camp, some may buy into the hype.

but I honestly think it more likely they sign or draft another WR.    This will likely knock him down the ratings a bit.   To what extent really depends on who that player ends up being.

I do not expect hes gonna go in the first 3 rounds but round 4-5 is certainly possible.

[weepaws 2,717]

They will pick up or draft WRs.  They need to, I think his earliest adp will be round 4

[Ray_T 679]

15 minutes ago, weepaws said:

They will pick up or draft WRs.  They need to, I think his earliest adp will be round 4

i agree.  and they have to do it.  if hes the only WR capable of doing anything, teams will just double cover him and it will be game over.

honestly, I still think Goff is  a solid QB but at the start of the year I looked at the WR and thought, I havnt heard of nearly everyone here.  This is gonna be a tough year for Goff.

I figured the TE (hock) may be worth a pickup if my targeted TE didnt work out but I figured with the limited depth at WR he could easily be getting the other teams best corner on him just because the WR dont scare anybody.

in the end, they NEED to get someone at WR.  If they dont, that GM needs to be relieved of his duties.

[rotisserieking 35]

On 1/10/2022 at 3:34 PM, gcmmidwest said:

I wanna see where deebo and Patterson wind up

Will both show up as RB eligible? 

[weepaws 2,717]

D Singletary. 

[weepaws 2,717]

Lamb, what ever is his adp I’m not buying. 

The Zeke, not worthy of a first round pick any longer 

[weepaws 2,717]

The adp of the Steelers Harris , and DJ, is going to be interesting.  

[IMMensaMind 460]

On 1/11/2022 at 10:06 AM, makindollaz said:

Have seen a lot of discussion about Zeke’s “disappointing” season.  I drafted him in the league I won, and he finished as the #7 RB in our PPR scoring.  While he’s not putting up the numbers he did a few years ago, he’s still pretty good.

If you figure 8-9 RB’s go in the first round of most drafts, and he finished #7, that just tells me he should have gone last 1st instead of #5 where I took him.  Still not that far off.

If the team remains the same, I'd rather have Pollard 6 rounds later.

[Ray_T 679]

14 hours ago, weepaws said:

Lamb, what ever is his adp I’m not buying. 

The Zeke, not worthy of a first round pick any longer 

sure looks like thats the case.

what surprises me is how fast this line has declined. 3 years ago it was the best O line in pro football.

in todays playoff game, they looked like they were manhandled.    This is at least responsible for part of the Dallas issues this year. 

I know they have had injuries, but still.  They need to be better and this may have had a role in the production of Zeke (and to a lesser degree Lamb)

[lesjroza 70]

On 1/12/2022 at 6:51 PM, lesjroza said:

 

Ok, don't think this is my last post on Brown because you convinced me, or because I'm letting you get away with penciling him in for 8 TDs next year (2021 Tyreek 9, Diggs 10, Cooper/Lockett/Diontae 8). We'll just agree to disagree and enjoy a solid debate.

Honestly, I thought my take was obvious, but the pushback from you and some others I respect here does give me a bit of pause. That's as far as I'll go though, I'm not taking action and its very unlikely Brown will be on any teams I draft this year. I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct. Cheers! 

 

 

 

 

                                                          Ok, so its previously promised update #1 time regarding Amon Ra, not because I want to take a victory lap, but because I think this is still a very, very, relevant discussion not only this player this season, but conceptually for future early drafters, especially prior to free agency and the NFL Draft. Assuming I remember we'll check in again right before the season update #2  and then post regular season to discuss how it turned out. 

Anybody who wants can check this thread above from the start to get a flavor for the discussion but regarding Amon-Ra it was posited that he may/should be drafted in rounds 2/3 in early drafts. This discussion took place in January. I offered I wouldn't touch him before round 8 and listed a couple of reasons. Axe Elf called me out and said he would draft him in round 2 or 3. A healthy discussion ensued that was much more in depth, but I generally listed the risks associated with taking him that high. Others chimed in taking either side. I was a bit taken aback by a couple of the posters who agreed with Axe Elf because they are generally people who I respect and always want to hear their thoughts, whether I agree or not.  

Fast forward to June.

It is very possible Brown will catch fire at some point in the pre-season and rise significantly, its even more possible he will dramatically outperform his current draft ADP regardless, but for now everybody who thought I was too pessimistic about an 8th round valuation may want to check ADPs before you draft.

ADPs can be all over the board this time of year and pretty messed up places like MFL due to all the different types of drafts that happen, but FF Calculator has Brown at 8.12 for Full PPR- 12 team leagues. The players going directly before are Gabriel Davis, Chase Edmonds, Pat Freiermuth.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

So, my questions for those who were on the rd 2-3 bandwagon, including Axe Elf.

Have you changed your mind?

Do you think the market is badly misguided at this point? For instance do you see Gabriel/Edmonds/Freiermuth in completely different much lower valuation territory than Brown?

Have you changed your mind about his value based on some of the risks coming to fruition, or for any other reason?

Do you consider him a huge value you would now take in the 6th/7th to make sure you get him rather than targeting say one of those other 3 going right before him?

 

[AxeElf 787]

24 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

Axe Elf called me out and said he would draft him in round 2 or 3.

In January.  Do you think anything has changed since then--such as the Chark signing and the Williams drafting?

He's probably still undervalued in the 8th round, but I don't think he's still worthy of a 2nd or 3rd round pick--which I also foreshadowed:

On 1/12/2022 at 11:53 AM, AxeElf said:

At this point, yes, I would absolutely draft him well before the 8th round, and if I was drafting right now, probly in the 2nd or 3rd round.

We shall see what changes come to the team, but it's likely that ARSB will continue to have a lot of value in PPR, just because he's drawing so many targets...

 

On 1/12/2022 at 5:02 PM, AxeElf said:

Yeah, that's about what I would expect.  So let's say 7.5 targets in 17 games = 127.5 targets on the year, at his current 75% catch rate that would be 96 receptions, at his current rate of 10.1 ypc, that makes 970 yards, and then let's say a TD every other week instead of every week, for 8 TDs, and you have 96+97+48 = 241 PPR points, slotting him in around WR15 or so.  There are usually about that many WRs taken in the first 3 rounds, so St. Brown is potentially a 3rd round pick, but should definitely be gone by the end of the 4th.

Pending, of course, the offseason...

He's going to have the same slot/possession/underneath role, while Williams and Chark stretch the field, so he won't be put totally out of business by the new additions--he just won't be the only receiver on the field any more.  Depending on how long it takes Williams to get up to speed, I'd expect Amon-Ra to continue to be a 5th-7th round value in PPR scoring, which you can apparently get for an 8th round price at the moment.

[lesjroza 70]

18 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

In January.  Do you think anything has changed since then--such as the Chark signing and the Williams drafting?

 

I do think things have changed but I also think EVERYTHING that has changed was very, very predictable and for me personally the total outcome for Brown was actually BETTER than what I had discounted........... because the Lions did not draft a rookie QB who then would have put the entire recieving corps at risk of, at a minimum, back half of the year super inefficient passing.

So I too could see him now in the 7th, though I wouldn't take him ahead of those 3 I listed every time. I would take Gabriel ahead in most circumstances, and depending how the top of my draft fell I could see Edmonds and Freiermuth being an option over him potentially. 

But your question hits on another thing I wanted to flesh out back then actually but I had already said I wouldn't post any further regarding him until an update.

How do YOU (or anyone else chime in) discount for the possibility/probability that there are likely changes to situation for use in early drafts??

I'm not all that smart, but even I saw the additions to receiver corps as almost a certainty given the cap and draft capital available.

Will you take a player in an early draft with the assumption nothing changes and then discount a change completely at the point it happens?

 

 

[weepaws 2,717]

1 hour ago, lesjroza said:

 

 

                                                          Ok, so its previously promised update #1 time regarding Amon Ra, not because I want to take a victory lap, but because I think this is still a very, very, relevant discussion not only this player this season, but conceptually for future early drafters, especially prior to free agency and the NFL Draft. Assuming I remember we'll check in again right before the season update #2  and then post regular season to discuss how it turned out. 

Anybody who wants can check this thread above from the start to get a flavor for the discussion but regarding Amon-Ra it was posited that he may/should be drafted in rounds 2/3 in early drafts. This discussion took place in January. I offered I wouldn't touch him before round 8 and listed a couple of reasons. Axe Elf called me out and said he would draft him in round 2 or 3. A healthy discussion ensued that was much more in depth, but I generally listed the risks associated with taking him that high. Others chimed in taking either side. I was a bit taken aback by a couple of the posters who agreed with Axe Elf because they are generally people who I respect and always want to hear their thoughts, whether I agree or not.  

Fast forward to June.

It is very possible Brown will catch fire at some point in the pre-season and rise significantly, its even more possible he will dramatically outperform his current draft ADP regardless, but for now everybody who thought I was too pessimistic about an 8th round valuation may want to check ADPs before you draft.

ADPs can be all over the board this time of year and pretty messed up places like MFL due to all the different types of drafts that happen, but FF Calculator has Brown at 8.12 for Full PPR- 12 team leagues. The players going directly before are Gabriel Davis, Chase Edmonds, Pat Freiermuth.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

So, my questions for those who were on the rd 2-3 bandwagon, including Axe Elf.

Have you changed your mind?

Do you think the market is badly misguided at this point? For instance do you see Gabriel/Edmonds/Freiermuth in completely different much lower valuation territory than Brown?

Have you changed your mind about his value based on some of the risks coming to fruition, or for any other reason?

Do you consider him a huge value you would now take in the 6th/7th to make sure you get him rather than targeting say one of those other 3 going right before him?

 

 

27 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

 

I do think things have changed but I also think EVERYTHING that has changed was very, very predictable and for me personally the total outcome for Brown was actually BETTER than what I had discounted........... because the Lions did not draft a rookie QB who then would have put the entire recieving corps at risk of, at a minimum, back half of the year super inefficient passing.

So I too could see him now in the 7th, though I wouldn't take him ahead of those 3 I listed every time. I would take Gabriel ahead in most circumstances, and depending how the top of my draft fell I could see Edmonds and Freiermuth being an option over him potentially. 

But your question hits on another thing I wanted to flesh out back then actually but I had already said I wouldn't post any further regarding him until an update.

How do YOU (or anyone else chime in) discount for the possibility/probability that there are likely changes to situation for use in early drafts??

I'm not all that smart, but even I saw the additions to receiver corps as almost a certainty given the cap and draft capital available.

Will you take a player in an early draft with the assumption nothing changes and then discount a change completely at the point it happens?

 

 

I think this is a crap post.  Calling out people based on a value ranking back in January.  

His value as gone down into the eighth round round 1/2 point ppr, I thought it would be higher . 

Your not taking a victory lap, your just making an arse out of yourself.  

Good day sir.  

[lesjroza 70]

20 minutes ago, weepaws said:

 

I think this is a crap post.  Calling out people based on a value ranking back in January.  

His value as gone down into the eighth round round 1/2 point ppr, I thought it would be higher . 

Your not taking a victory lap, your just making an arse out of yourself.  

Good day sir.  

You are entitled to your opinion sir and I defend your right to voice it! In my opinion the value of player at ANY given moment for drafting purposes should include different types of risks to the production outlook.

In January some of the biggest to consider are free agency and draft. If you will read through the above posts ALL of the risk outlook was discussed and promoted as a reason for my own valuation so the fact that it was January is irrelevant in that sense.

Additionally, I do not see myself hating on Axeelf or anybody else for their opinion, which I appreciate, but rather intend on highlighting differences as illumination of topics that I think should be of interest to people on this bored AND to help me test my own valuations. Sometimes its specific players, sometimes it process. 

I've posted previously about the fact that when I began playing, many, many yrs ago I found much wisdom here at FFToday that was helpful to me. My goal is to accomplish the same for others, not that they should follow my opinions, or consider my opinions wisdom but to consider the reasoning as well as the opposing thoughts. I do not make posts such as I like guy A or guy B better and leave it at that.

Finally, I will say that I often AGREE with Axeelf, and to me, while I feel good about it when it happens, a post in agreement is rarely useful since often there is no debate to illuminate. I will, go further and say when I do see a positive post from Axeelf and a few others about a situation I like I get even more excited and the Last thing I want to do is highlight for others when my name is literally on the post.

As I see it true wisdom comes from the friction of opposing viewpoints

Respectfully, Les

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

  

[AxeElf 787]

Amon-Ra's ADP on RTSports (you know, where actual people are drafting, as opposed to the computer picks on FF Calculator) is 59.72, which would be the end of the 5th round in 12 team drafts and the end of the 6th round in 10 team drafts..

[lesjroza 70]

30 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Amon-Ra's ADP on RTSports (you know, where actual people are drafting, as opposed to the computer picks on FF Calculator) is 59.72, which would be the end of the 5th round in 12 team drafts.

 

Interesting. Is that a single format or amalgamation of all drafts regardless of format (or are all the same anyway at RT Sports)?

Do you know if that is the one you posted about a few times last year where some guys looked pretty attractive that includes all drafts in the average?

Because its possible drafters prior to the NFL Draft and free agency could be inclusive in the ADP and its possible players following news right now have a very different ADP, but the earlier drafts may still be more heavily weighted than they will be in the summer.

Definitely not saying its not correct, just asking................... and Weepaws this is the type of discussion I'm referring to as potentially helpful for some. Not all newbs would consider listed ADP may not actually reflect more current averages.

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,717]

From what I’m seeing , is ADP is in the 50es, 12 team leagues, I’m looking at 1/2 point ppr. 

So I would say his ADP is right in the early to mid 5th round.  

See how I wrote that without tossing someone under the bus.  

 

[weepaws 2,717]

20 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

 

Interesting. Is that a single format or amalgamation of all drafts regardless of format (or are all the same anyway at RT Sports)?

Do you know if that is the one you posted about a few times last year where some guys looked pretty attractive that includes all drafts in the average?

Because its possible drafters prior to the NFL Draft and free agency could be inclusive in the ADP and its possible players following news right now have a very different ADP, but the earlier drafts may still be more heavily weighted than they will be in the summer.

Definitely not saying its not correct, just asking................... and Weepaws this is the type of discussion I'm referring to as potentially helpful for some. Not all newbs would consider listed ADP may not actually reflect more current averages.

 

 

 

I think you came on here fire to prove someone wrong, and how right you are.  

You could’ve had a different approach in your first post today. 

I understand good ff discussions they take place here daily, but your original post didn’t sound that way to me.  

And please don’t cap my name, only God’s name is worthy.  

[AxeElf 787]

28 minutes ago, lesjroza said:

Interesting. Is that a single format or amalgamation of all drafts regardless of format (or are all the same anyway at RT Sports)?

It is an amalgamation across drafts, but they don't do any standard or half-PPR leagues; all of their leagues use full PPR scoring.  Even the sizes of the leagues don't vary much--the vast majority are 10 and 12 team leagues, although that doesn't really matter if you're talking about absolute draft position ("59th" as opposed to "round 5, pick 3").

They do open their leagues early, and there were probably a lot of drafts before the NFL draft, so there could be some pre-draft bias left, but at this point, five weeks after the draft, I expect they have settled down toward pre-season normality.

[lesjroza 70]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I think you came on here fire to prove someone wrong, and how right you are.  

You could’ve had a different approach in your first post today. 

I understand good ff discussions they take place here daily, but your original post didn’t sound that way to me.  

And please don’t cap my name, only God’s name is worthy.  

 

I can understand how you could read it that way and many probably would but that was not my intent at all.

If you doubt it, that's fair, but in addition to my saying its not the case, look at the last post I made on the topic prior to today which I have copied below.

I would not have to go very far to find a post anybody made on pretty much every topic to "prove somebody wrong" including myself. These days I don't make it over here very often and I limit the posts I make to topics I find especially interesting. Often times I'm unsure myself, but hope someone else can add value by talking through it with me, for myself but also the benefit of those who are taking their valuable time to be here at the moment. I like it when I get push back with reasoning whether I reply or not, it helps my thought process. In this case I didn't understand the valuation implied by dynasty trades I was seeing with Brown to be perfectly honest. The pushback I got regarding it coming from the specific individuals who were doing it made me understand the other side better, not agree, but understand which is every bit as important.

 

"Ok, don't think this is my last post on Brown because you convinced me, or because I'm letting you get away with penciling him in for 8 TDs next year (2021 Tyreek 9, Diggs 10, Cooper/Lockett/Diontae 8). We'll just agree to disagree and enjoy a solid debate.

Honestly, I thought my take was obvious, but the pushback from you and some others I respect here does give me a bit of pause. That's as far as I'll go though, I'm not taking action and its very unlikely Brown will be on any teams I draft this year. I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct. Cheers! "

 

 

[Ray_T 679]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think you came on here fire to prove someone wrong, and how right you are.  

You could’ve had a different approach in your first post today. 

I understand good ff discussions they take place here daily, but your original post didn’t sound that way to me.  

And please don’t cap my name, only God’s name is worthy.  

I dont think he came here to attack anyone but more to stimulate debate.

I have not done my rankings but right now I'm thinking 8th round pick is too high for this guy.  I am thinking round 5 or 6 though I may revise that up a bit depending on how the pre season rolls.  

I think I had him around there when I posted earlier in the year.

I think I said round 5, but given where his ADP is at it may not make sense to take him that early.  I"d wait to round 6 unless I felt I wouldnt get him there for some reason.

[weepaws 2,717]

12 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

I think this is a crap post.  Calling out people based on a value ranking back in January.  

His value as gone down into the eighth round round 1/2 point ppr, I thought it would be higher . 

Your not taking a victory lap, your just making an arse out of yourself.  

Good day sir.  

 

8 hours ago, lesjroza said:

 

I can understand how you could read it that way and many probably would but that was not my intent at all.

If you doubt it, that's fair, but in addition to my saying its not the case, look at the last post I made on the topic prior to today which I have copied below.

I would not have to go very far to find a post anybody made on pretty much every topic to "prove somebody wrong" including myself. These days I don't make it over here very often and I limit the posts I make to topics I find especially interesting. Often times I'm unsure myself, but hope someone else can add value by talking through it with me, for myself but also the benefit of those who are taking their valuable time to be here at the moment. I like it when I get push back with reasoning whether I reply or not, it helps my thought process. In this case I didn't understand the valuation implied by dynasty trades I was seeing with Brown to be perfectly honest. The pushback I got regarding it coming from the specific individuals who were doing it made me understand the other side better, not agree, but understand which is every bit as important.

 

"Ok, don't think this is my last post on Brown because you convinced me, or because I'm letting you get away with penciling him in for 8 TDs next year (2021 Tyreek 9, Diggs 10, Cooper/Lockett/Diontae 8). We'll just agree to disagree and enjoy a solid debate.

Honestly, I thought my take was obvious, but the pushback from you and some others I respect here does give me a bit of pause. That's as far as I'll go though, I'm not taking action and its very unlikely Brown will be on any teams I draft this year. I usually don't come back to this type of banter the following year and highlight out how it turned out, but I'll try to remember to do so in this case regardless of whom turns out to be correct. Cheers! "

 

 

I apologize.  

[weepaws 2,717]

5 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I dont think he came here to attack anyone but more to stimulate debate.

I have not done my rankings but right now I'm thinking 8th round pick is too high for this guy.  I am thinking round 5 or 6 though I may revise that up a bit depending on how the pre season rolls.  

I think I had him around there when I posted earlier in the year.

I think I said round 5, but given where his ADP is at it may not make sense to take him that early.  I"d wait to round 6 unless I felt I wouldnt get him there for some reason.

From what I’ve seen his adp is fifth round.  I’m having a tough time taking him in mock drafts when is adp comes up, to many other options I like more.  

 

[Ray_T 679]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

From what I’ve seen his adp is fifth round.  I’m having a tough time taking him in mock drafts when is adp comes up, to many other options I like more.  

 

yeah I get it.  2 new pro calibre WR.  

there is also the risk that he got the ball because nobody else was capable on the roster at times.

now with 2 new WR, one taken early in the draft it is not unreasonable to think his value takes a bit of a hit.

if his adp is in round 5 that puts him near the top of what I'd consider paying and it really depends what other players are available before I'd pay that price. My biggest concern is the small sample size in terms of games when he played well.   The first half of the season for him was rather forgettable.   The second half was pretty good.  ideally you'd like a full season of good play before you'd pay this price for him.  and if his ADP rises further I just wont buy.  (not at the price of his ADP anyway)

 

 

[lesjroza 70]

On 6/3/2022 at 12:18 AM, weepaws said:

 

I apologize.  

 

No worries, all good sir!

[Utilit99 4,099]

Terry McLaurin. I can't gauge this guy at all. Great talent, but now with Wentz? He'll probably be a third or fourth rounder in a redraft this year?

He was so inconsistent last year. If he were in a decent offense, he could a top five receiver. To me, you just don't know who you are going to get in him from game to game at this point though. Hopefully Wentz can find his old groove and make something of that offense. I would like to see Washington return to prominence. I'm so sick of Dallas. 

[weepaws 2,717]

I think Mclaurin is pretty easy to read, all three of his seasons he’s been a mid to low wr 2 in 1/2 ppr.  I’m expecting that to be more in the low wr2 high wr 3 range this season.  I like Dotson.  

[Super Cubs 142]

Michael Pittman has me curious.  The Colts are a run first team but I view at Matt Ryan as a improvement over Wentz.  Last years numbers 88/1082/6  seem easily repeatable.  I assume he can add to those and maybe finish the year in the lower end of the top12.

[weepaws 2,717]

Based on those number, he’ll have to hurry a lot to be in the lower in of the top 12 in any scoring format.  

Even a little up tick won’t do it.  

And A Pierce is much better then no one whom they had playing opponents Pittman at wr last season.  

[Gepetto 1,128]

Any player that is the team's #1 target is worth considering.  If their #2, be more cautious.  There are not that many Reggie Waynes or Torry Holts that come along.  Adam Thielen, Mike Williams and Tyler Locket and Chris Godwin notwithstanding however they're not WR1s in fantasy football.

St. Brown has to contend with Hockenson and a lesser degree Chark.  Williams just tore his ACL in January and is on PUP. 

I would consider St. Brown or Hockenson their #1, not sure yet.  I think St. Brown got some of his production when Hockenson was hurt, however it was impressive. 

Based on this, I'm also intrigued by Terry Mclaurin and Michael Pittman Jr. (although the offense going through Jonathan Taylor hurts him).

Why is Calvin Ridley getting drafted at Fantasy Football Calculator?  Isn't he suspended for the year for gambling?  Not to mention he walked away for mental health reasons.

 

[AxeElf 787]

23 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Why is Calvin Ridley getting drafted at Fantasy Football Calculator?

At this point in the preseason, the vast majority of picks made at FFC are made by autodraft.

[TBayXXXVII 2,303]

16 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Chris Godwin

This isn't exactly true.  In 2019, Godwin was WR2 and Evans was WR3 though the first 12 weeks... Evans got hurt in Week 13.  Despite missing 2 games, Godwin still finished that season as WR2... Evans ended up as WR15.  In avg ppg, Godwin was #2 and Evans was #5.

Last year, prior to getting hurt in Week 15, Godwin was WR6 and Evans was WR11.

Godwin is a WR1 when healthy.  That's why I say you're not "exactly" right.  It's because he hasn't always been able to stay healthy.  But, he is a WR1, when he is.