Post Mortem Report-RB's

[Ray_T 589]

this is a very high level analysis.    I will post more here when I look at things.

to summarize:

some players were highlighted.  I do not know if the highlights will show in my post.  but those highlighted are players I have questions about for next year.  either due to potential time share or due to projected workload changes or due to the fact they seem to have injury issues and we need to look at what we are gonna do with them.   This is very preliminary and there are probably names I have not highlighted that I should. (noting as I look at E Mitchell)

I welcome any comments in terms of who in the top 15 you think will drop out of the top 15 next year (and so on)  Please try not to let your comments be personal.  we are not all going to agree on some players, but I'm hoping some of you can highlight some things I am missing in this anaylysis as it progresses.

your top 15 RB's this year by total fantasy points:

Player

1. Jonathan Taylor

2. Austin Ekeler

3. Joe Mixon

4. Najee Harris

5. James Conner

6. Ezekiel Elliott

7. Nick Chubb

8. Damien Harris

9. Antonio Gibson

10. Alvin Kamara

11. Leonard Fournette

12. Aaron Jones

13. Josh Jacobs

14. Dalvin Cook

15. Melvin Gordon

top 15 in points per game with the number on the left being their rank in terms of total fantasy points.

Player

16. Derrick Henry

1. Jonathan Taylor

2. Austin Ekeler

3. Joe Mixon

5. James Conner

10. Alvin Kamara

7. Nick Chubb

14. Dalvin Cook

4. Najee Harris

11. Leonard Fournette

24. Elijah Mitchell

8. Damien Harris

43. Christian McCaffrey

[Hardcore troubadour 12,627]

Hard to believe Gibson is #9. I consider him fairly close to being a bust for a guy who went in round 2. The problem with him is he looks so good when he’s good, but he was banged up so much and didn’t really take off until McKissic went down. If he drops a little I’d take him again, but he won’t when he’s showing being the #9 RB. He didn’t feel like it. 

[Ray_T 589]

41 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Hard to believe Gibson is #9. I consider him fairly close to being a bust for a guy who went in round 2. The problem with him is he looks so good when he’s good, but he was banged up so much and didn’t really take off until McKissic went down. If he drops a little I’d take him again, but he won’t when he’s showing being the #9 RB. He didn’t feel like it. 

well, I dont know that hes that far from where I projected him.

but he is ranked higher partly due to the number of injuries.   in general if you are on the first list, but not the second, that assumption is probably true.

I still dont think I'd rank him in my top 12 next year, and that would likely make him a high end RB2.    Keep in mind part of his problem is he plays on a bad team.   Thats usually bad news for RB stats.   Think of Mixon before the Bengals became good.   then when the Bengals became a good team this year, Mixon was top 5.

I suspect as the team improves so will he.    problem is.... Washington is a bit of a train wreck in terms of management so ownership and upper management may limit their ability to turn  things around.   so this may be where hes at for a while unless they draft a difference maker (or two) in the next draft.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,627]

16 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, I dont know that hes that far from where I projected him.

but he is ranked higher partly due to the number of injuries.   in general if you are on the first list, but not the second, that assumption is probably true.

I still dont think I'd rank him in my top 12 next year, and that would likely make him a high end RB2.    Keep in mind part of his problem is he plays on a bad team.   Thats usually bad news for RB stats.   Think of Mixon before the Bengals became good.   then when the Bengals became a good team this year, Mixon was top 5.

I suspect as the team improves so will he.    problem is.... Washington is a bit of a train wreck in terms of management so ownership and upper management may limit their ability to turn  things around.   so this may be where hes at for a while unless they draft a difference maker (or two) in the next draft.

They are a bad team, but a bad team that is committed to the run. Rivera is never going to air it out. We’ll see if the defense improves next year which should help out a run based offense. 

[Ray_T 589]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

They are a bad team, but a bad team that is committed to the run. Rivera is never going to air it out. We’ll see if the defense improves next year which should help out a run based offense. 

true. 

that is where I would expect they need another difference maker.

the defense underperformed this year, partly due to injuries to key players.  but also partly because they didnt have enough talent outside those key players. 

If they draft a stud for the D line,  this defense could be really good.   then the committment to the run could pay off.

another O lineman who can perform wouldnt hurt either.

 

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

18 hours ago, Ray_T said:

true. 

that is where I would expect they need another difference maker.

the defense underperformed this year, partly due to injuries to key players.  but also partly because they didnt have enough talent outside those key players. 

If they draft a stud for the D line,  this defense could be really good.   then the committment to the run could pay off.

another O lineman who can perform wouldnt hurt either.

Their defense didn't under perform at all.  They were 3rd in points against and 8th in yards.  Their issue was scoring.  The Broncos were 24th in putting the ball in the end zone and 23rd in points per game.  If you don't put points on the board, you're not going to win many games.  Their #1 issue?  They need a real QB.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

20 hours ago, Ray_T said:

top 15 in points per game with the number on the left being their rank in terms of total fantasy points.

Player

16. Derrick Henry

1. Jonathan Taylor

2. Austin Ekeler

3. Joe Mixon

5. James Conner

10. Alvin Kamara

7. Nick Chubb

14. Dalvin Cook

4. Najee Harris

11. Leonard Fournette

24. Elijah Mitchell

8. Damien Harris

43. Christian McCaffrey

You know what almost all of these guys have in common?  They didn't play every game.  "Availability" is the #1 ability.

[Ray_T 589]

On 1/14/2022 at 8:42 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

Their defense didn't under perform at all.  They were 3rd in points against and 8th in yards.  Their issue was scoring.  The Broncos were 24th in putting the ball in the end zone and 23rd in points per game.  If you don't put points on the board, you're not going to win many games.  Their #1 issue?  They need a real QB.

well, the stats are the stats.

all I know is I was looking forward to this defense being very good.

I saw their week 2 matchup against the Giants and i thought Meh.

following week not great vs Buffalo but Buffalo is a good team.   then they beat Atlanta 34-30.   

didnt watch many more games until the game vs Dallas which was a disaster.  The Cowboys seemed to move the ball at will against these guys.   That said, the Cowboys are a team where the offense plays well against the weaklings, but not so much against the top teams.

I acknowledge it is a small sample size, but my thought is that a top D doesnt give up 50 points EVER.   but it sure looks like the rest of their season was solid based on the stats so they clearly had some good games i didnt see.   but I think the Defense still needs to get better regardless of the overall stats.

one more difference maker will do that for them.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

20 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, the stats are the stats.

all I know is I was looking forward to this defense being very good.

I saw their week 2 matchup against the Giants and i thought Meh.

following week not great vs Buffalo but Buffalo is a good team.   then they beat Atlanta 34-30.   

didnt watch many more games until the game vs Dallas which was a disaster.  The Cowboys seemed to move the ball at will against these guys.   That said, the Cowboys are a team where the offense plays well against the weaklings, but not so much against the top teams.

I acknowledge it is a small sample size, but my thought is that a top D doesnt give up 50 points EVER.   but it sure looks like the rest of their season was solid based on the stats so they clearly had some good games i didnt see.   but I think the Defense still needs to get better regardless of the overall stats.

one more difference maker will do that for them.

 

You're right, my bad.  I have NO idea how, but I was thinking you were talking about Denver.     Don't ask me why. LOL

[Ray_T 589]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You're right, my bad.  I have NO idea how, but I was thinking you were talking about Denver.     Don't ask me why. LOL

honestly, I have made the same mistake before.   Then I say something and put my foot in my mouth.  

its all good.

[weepaws 2,457]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

You're right, my bad.  I have NO idea how, but I was thinking you were talking about Denver.     Don't ask me why. LOL

There is that quick judgement again.