Obvious question: Is getting a first round bye really an advantage?

[Fumbleweed 426]

Just raising the possibility that it isn’t. Not saying it’s definitively not. 

[weepaws 2,460]

Sometimes.  

I think there should be 8 teams in the playoffs with every team getting a first week bye.  

[Ray_T 591]

44 minutes ago, Fumbleweed said:

Just raising the possibility that it isn’t. Not saying it’s definitively not. 

well, I have asked myself that.

but the advantage of the bye is that you get into the next round without having to play a game.  so if you have players who are coming back from injury(Henry) it could certainly be helpful.

the disadvantage is that maybe you are not as sharp at the start of the game with the week off.

I dont know that that was the case here. 

it felt like Tennessee was in good shape at the half.  it looked like a low scoring affair (which looked to be to their advantage).   in the 4th quarter, Up until the last turnover, it looked like the Titans were in control and this was going to be a late game FG or TD that would win it for them with very little time on the clock.

so I dont know that the bye hurt them in this case.   They hurt themselves.   end of story.

as for Green Bay, they came out hot and San Fran's D stepped it up and shut them down after that.

the Special Teams for San Fran also was well prepared.   and its not like Green Bay didnt have more prep time.   they were outcoached in this case I think.

normally the team on Bye has more time to add 'wrinkles' to their game to give a larger advantage but that did not happen here.      or if it did, those adjustments didnt pan out (it happens sometimes)

[Kopy 491]

That is a really good question. I guess I would always just rather have it than not

[nobody 2,038]

You'd have to say that reduction in focus or productivity caused by the bye would result in their chances of winning in the divisional round to be reduced by a factor greater than the chances of a 1-seed losing in the wildcard round.

That would mean the bye is reducing the team's chances of winning somewhere between 25%-35% depending on how bad the wildcard round opponent would be.

I could actually see that being feasible if the wildcard round opponent were bad enough, but it could be tough to say.  

 

[Vikings4ever 496]

Hard to say. Theoretically, the number 1 (and number 2 previous to last year) should be the best team(s) in the conference, and should make it to the Super Bowl more often than if everyone had an equal chance.

2021: TB (no bye) vs KC (bye)
2020: KC vs SF (both byes)
2019: NE vs LAR (both byes)
2018: PHI vs NE (both byes)
2017: NE vs ATL (both byes)
2016: DEN vs CAR (both byes)
2015: NE vs SEA (both byes)
2014: SEA vs DEN (both byes)
2013: BAL (no bye) vs SF (bye)
2012: NYG (no bye) vs NE (bye)

17 of the last 20 SB participants had a 1st round bye. How much of that is from them being the best team in the conference, and how much is it playing 1 fewer game?

This year? The 9ers are a good running team with a good defense, which is usually a recipe for post season success. Especially in the conditions last night. Cincy is a dangerous team, and Tennessee never felt like a GREAT team, but a team that was good enough, in a weak division.

[polecatt 402]

I do know one thing, you can't lose to "Bye" and you can lose any other game.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,642]

It matters when it matters and it don’t when it don’t. 

[AxeElf 787]

I don't know if having the first round bye is an advantage, but having one of the best two teams in your conference is definitely an advantage, and the two have historically been correlated.

[Fumbleweed 426]

28 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I don't know if having the first round bye is an advantage, but having one of the best two teams in your conference is definitely an advantage, and the two have historically been correlated.

I do not think all regular season W-L records are created equally. Some teams play a considerably tougher/easier schedule than other teams. 

My thought prompting the post is that the bye week takes teams out of rhythm sometimes. 

[Ray_T 591]

well, I think it comes down to coaching.  if the coach keeps the team focused and has good practices, in theory, the bye should never hurt you.

in reality we know that is sometimes not the case.

when I see a team coming off a bye and they dont seem sharp at the beginning of the game, that could be the effect of the bye.

if I see a team shoot themselves in the foot late in the game (like what happened at least once this year)  I do not blame the bye.    thats either a mental mistake or a physical mistake or a coaching mistake.

at the end of the day late in a game if you are in a position to win and dont do it blaming the bye is just silly.

if you do a bunch of poor play  at the start of the game?   maybe the bye had something to do with THAT.

[weepaws 2,460]

At the end of this thread, sometimes it’s a good thing, and sometimes it’s not.  

[Hardcore troubadour 12,642]

5 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It matters when it matters and it don’t when it don’t. 

Like this guy said before. 

[Donkey 34]

Historically it's been a huge advantage, this year the #1 seeds weren't the best teams

[cmh6476 751]

I don't know but playing at home is

[Gepetto 985]

The advantage of the bye is you can't lose in the first round so it's like getting a win in round 1 of the playoffs.  Bye/Win or go home.

[weepaws 2,460]

So what your saying, if you’re not playing you can’t lose? That’s a great observation.