Jerick McKinnon

[cavern 70]

Mckinnon out touched CEH 15 to 8 in last night's divisional.  what are the odds he's the back to own going into next year?  Dynasty/keeper related - he might be available for an offseason stash

[cavern 70]

just noticed he's an UFA at season end

[AxeElf 787]

I was surprised they din't use McKinnon more during the season, but I kind of doubt if there is a Chiefs RB to own next year.  They seemed perfectly happy using Williams and Gore, and late, even McKinnon, on a pretty regular basis, but I doubt if they completely ignore their first round investment in CEH, either.  Looks like just another committee playing second fiddle to a passing game.  Barring injuries, CEH will probly still be the most productive back on the season, but that might look like 900 yards and 8 TDs, too.

[makindollaz 40]

34 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Barring injuries, CEH will probly still be the most productive back on the season, but that might look like 900 yards and 8 TDs, too.

Those numbers would have put him about #30 for RB’s in full PPR, and that’s without figuring his catches projection in, so likely a mid/lower end RB2.

Probably not someone I’d look at before the late 4th/5th round.

[cmh6476 750]

CEH looked better in his limited touches.  Imagine if Kareem Hunt wasn't a dumass and was on this team.

[cavern 70]

1 hour ago, cmh6476 said:

CEH looked better in his limited touches.  Imagine if Kareem Hunt wasn't a dumass and was on this team.

is it safe to assume CEH's limited touches had more to do  with coming off of injury (as opposed to they are starting to trust mckinnon more)?

[weepaws 2,457]

I thought McKinnon would have been a really good fit for KC , surprised that he was so underused. 

[cmh6476 750]

37 minutes ago, cavern said:

is it safe to assume CEH's limited touches had more to do  with coming off of injury (as opposed to they are starting to trust mckinnon more)?

That's my guess.  They aren't giving up on a1st round running back they took before swift and Taylor.

[Ray_T 589]

On 1/24/2022 at 12:48 PM, cmh6476 said:

That's my guess.  They aren't giving up on a1st round running back they took before swift and Taylor.

I gotta agree with this.

benching him this early in his career would be admitting you blew a first round pick.   Management generally doesnt like doing that sort of thing unless their hand is forced a bit.  Usually this happens when the rookie contract is over and hes asking for real money or when the team starts losing and hes seen as part of the problem.  until that happens, he will play as often as they can afford to play him.

[cavern 70]

On 1/24/2022 at 2:48 PM, cmh6476 said:

That's my guess.  They aren't giving up on a1st round running back they took before swift and Taylor.

curious about your thoughts on this after the same thing happened yesterday.  15 touches to 7....

now, i know there is a FA period ahead...but...if they resign him - any chance he's the back to own going forward?

sorry about the result, btw

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, cavern said:

any chance he's the back to own going forward?

I think this has been adequately addressed earlier in the thread.

[cavern 70]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I think this has been adequately addressed earlier in the thread.

i guess, but the thought was he was injured the prior week.  it really appeared this week he was simply the more trusted back.  no?  

i would say, most likely, they let him go via free agency and try CEH again.  HOWEVER, they clearly ended this season thinking mckinnon was their top back

[AxeElf 787]

28 minutes ago, cavern said:

HOWEVER, they clearly ended this season thinking mckinnon was their top back

Top healthy back, anyway...

[cavern 70]

still injured 2 weeks after coming off the injury report?  certainly possible, i guess.  thanks

maybe mckinnon's production in the post season will help him to a good FA landing spot anyway.  

[weepaws 2,457]

1 hour ago, cavern said:

still injured 2 weeks after coming off the injury report?  certainly possible, i guess.  thanks

maybe mckinnon's production in the post season will help him to a good FA landing spot anyway.  

Do you own a lot of stock in McKinnon? 

[cavern 70]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Do you own a lot of stock in McKinnon? 

no - i put him in my last roster spot in a dynasty a few weeks ago.  

there's not a whole lot to talk about, fantasy wise at this point in the season.  this IS the rb spot in the most explosive offense in the nfl.  i just expected CEH to lead the backs after he came back from injury and have been surprised he has not.  i'm not overly hyped or anything on this.  i was just surprised that, once again, he was lead back and CEH was change of pace.  we will have no more data points this season, so, i'll just chalk it up to CEH was still banged up and is still their guy.  if they offer a bunch of money to keep jerick then i'll get interested again.

i will say that i plan to keep him in that last spot rather than stash someone else....for now.  and i will definitely be careful drafting CEH next year....

[weepaws 2,457]

CEH was 25 based on avg per game 1/2 ppr, his ADP next season should be an interesting one, if it falls I’m in. But I wouldn’t pay rb2 price for him.  

Mckinnon I think was very underutilized, don’t know why. But I would also hang unto him.  

[cavern 70]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

CEH was 25 based on avg per game 1/2 ppr, his ADP next season should be an interesting one, if it falls I’m in. But I wouldn’t pay rb2 price for him.  

Mckinnon I think was very underutilized, don’t know why. But I would also hang unto him.  

the thing that really muddies the water is the UFA status.  

I actually sorta doubt that CEH was too hurt to handle 15 touches - i think they thought that mckinnon gave them their best chance to win.  however, i think it is more likely a vote of no confidence in CEH than a vote of confidence in mckinnon.  most likely mckinnon goes somewhere else and off the fantasy radar.  however - it is NOT a good thing for CEH.  best case he's still hurt, but i'd venture a guess that he, too, fades into obscurity

[Ray_T 589]

3 hours ago, cavern said:

still injured 2 weeks after coming off the injury report?  certainly possible, i guess.  thanks

maybe mckinnon's production in the post season will help him to a good FA landing spot anyway.  

when you get close to the playoffs, the coaches get cagey with respect to reporting injuries as they dont wanna give the other team a clue as to who to key on.

I wouldnt be surprised if CEH was playing hurt.

[Ray_T 589]

1 hour ago, cavern said:

the thing that really muddies the water is the UFA status.  

I actually sorta doubt that CEH was too hurt to handle 15 touches - i think they thought that mckinnon gave them their best chance to win.  however, i think it is more likely a vote of no confidence in CEH than a vote of confidence in mckinnon.  most likely mckinnon goes somewhere else and off the fantasy radar.  however - it is NOT a good thing for CEH.  best case he's still hurt, but i'd venture a guess that he, too, fades into obscurity

sometimes it is not about what a player can handle.   sometimes its a case where the defense plays different when CEH is back there as compared to McKinnon.

and perhaps when Mckinnon is in they like what they can do with what the defense gives them.  Not saying that happened here.  that would require more analysis than i have time to do.

[cavern 70]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

sometimes it is not about what a player can handle.   sometimes its a case where the defense plays different when CEH is back there as compared to McKinnon.

and perhaps when Mckinnon is in they like what they can do with what the defense gives them.  Not saying that happened here.  that would require more analysis than i have time to do.

No, i understand.  That's why it was more interesting when it happened 2 weeks in a row.  But, like I said, I was interested in mckinnon, but it probably reflects more poorly on CEH than positively on McKinnon 

[Ray_T 589]

3 hours ago, cavern said:

No, i understand.  That's why it was more interesting when it happened 2 weeks in a row.  But, like I said, I was interested in mckinnon, but it probably reflects more poorly on CEH than positively on McKinnon 

it is interesting.   But There are 2 things that usually tell the tale in terms of future.

1)  piles of money.   you spend a pile of money on a player, that player is playing.   end of discussion.

2) draft capital-   first round pick generally also means that player will be playing.  if they dont play immediately, they will be given every opportunity to show they were worth the pick.

 

management really doesnt like to have to admit they made a mistake on a high draft pick or a big money free agent.    it rarely happens.

so even if you are right(and you might be)....... chances are good CEH will resume the starting role next year.

[cavern 70]

9 hours ago, Ray_T said:

it is interesting.   But There are 2 things that usually tell the tale in terms of future.

1)  piles of money.   you spend a pile of money on a player, that player is playing.   end of discussion.

2) draft capital-   first round pick generally also means that player will be playing.  if they dont play immediately, they will be given every opportunity to show they were worth the pick.

 

management really doesnt like to have to admit they made a mistake on a high draft pick or a big money free agent.    it rarely happens.

so even if you are right(and you might be)....... chances are good CEH will resume the starting role next year.

I understand and mostly agree.  I do think i will not be drafting CEH at whatever his ADP will be next season

[weepaws 2,457]

I’ll draft him if I can get him less than a rb2. 

[Ray_T 589]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

I’ll draft him if I can get him less than a rb2. 

for me it really depends on what the team does in the offseason.

I generally draft my RB's a bit earlier than most.  in my keeper league I am usually drafting my RB3 when a handful of teams don't yet have their RB2 drafted.

for me,  this likely means this is an option I'm looking at when I go to pick my RB3.

so for most people that  makes him a low end RB2.    That said, the difference between a Low end RB2 and a high end RB3 is not huge, so I'd suggest Weepaws is in the ballpark.

I'd say hes between RB20 and RB25 in most formats. 

Like I said it is possible fair market value could go higher or lower depending on what the team does with the position in the offseason.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

@cavern

@Ray_T

 

Good discussion, I have McKinnon as well in one league and he is near the cut line for me. I think the fact that he is an UFA will be the clinching factor. In my opinion the best case scenario is that KC brings him back to compete for the #2 job.

[cavern 70]

On 2/28/2022 at 10:26 AM, MTSkiBum said:

@cavern

@Ray_T

 

Good discussion, I have McKinnon as well in one league and he is near the cut line for me. I think the fact that he is an UFA will be the clinching factor. In my opinion the best case scenario is that KC brings him back to compete for the #2 job.

agree that best case scenario is KC getting him back under contract.  yes - as number 2.  They have already shown that they could give him the bulk of the work.  if he goes somewhere else it's just a complete guessing game.  if you can hold him through FA i think it would be a decent move (although, in all reality, his ending up as nothing is the most likely outcome - but we're talking about last roster spot)