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Tyreek Hill and K.C.'s Offense 2021

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2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, we are about to find out if hes good enough.

I dont know what else to say.   but usually when a GM spends a high draft pick or a pile of cash on a player, they usually find ways to get him the ball and give him a chance to show he is worth the cash.

But I'd argue hes one of those WR's who is that good that he can boost his QB.     hes not like most WR who beat coverage by a couple yards.  when this guy gets open he gets OPEN.

maybe Tua doesnt hit him in stride consistently like Mahomes did, but he likely still hits him when he gets open.

Either way, if a Starting QB cannot hit his #1 WR that usually means his career wont last long.   if he stinks it out now, he has likely no excuse.

It will be an interesting year.  I suppose if the price was right I'd draft a player from the Miami offense.  I am not currently planning to do it but its not impossible. The price needs to be right if I'm gonna buy.

If I could get Tyreek as a low end WR1 or high end WR2 I'd probably consider buying but it would also depend on who else is on the board.   Hes not a top end WR1 in this offense.

 

 

From what I’m seeing, Hill as a adp in the second round, and Waddle late third early fourth, I can’t see be owning either one of them at that price. Not with so much questions that I have about Tua ability as a nfl Qb.  

Your right Hill is very good , and that’s going to be a big help to Tua, but Tua still as limitations I think at Qb , that could hurt the value to both Hill and Waddle. 

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26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Looking at Hill's perspective of him believing the Chiefs tried to suppress his value

That was not the perspective of Hill or of his agent; that was the perspective of the interviewer who was, in my opinion, just trying to create verbal click bait.

You're right about the Chiefs becoming more of a short, possession-type passing offense, though; I talked about this a little when the Hill trade was first announced.  I believe that's why they were willing to let Hill go for the king's ransom, and put that toward receivers that fit that type of offense, like Juju Smith-Schuster and eventually, Skyy Moore.  They have Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to stretch the defenses and keep them honest, but I believe the vast majority of the work is going to be done underneath in the 5-10 yard area to Kelce, Juju, Skyy and the RBs, reducing the time Mahomes needs in the pocket.

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

From what I’m seeing, Hill as a adp in the second round, and Waddle late third early fourth, I can’t see be owning either one of them at that price. Not with so much questions that I have about Tua ability as a nfl Qb.  

Your right Hill is very good , and that’s going to be a big help to Tua, but Tua still as limitations I think at Qb , that could hurt the value to both Hill and Waddle. 

well a second round ADP likely means hes being drafted as a low to mid range WR1.

in round 1 the elite WR1's come off the board (top 3-5) and usually by the end of round 2 your top 8-12 WR are taken.

usually your last WR1 players are taken in the early part of the third round.

so this would likely make him a mid range WR1.   too pricey for my tastes, but each to their own.

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Yeah I’m not taking Hill in the second, I think he and Waddle are a round to early. 

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16 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

So, here's what I think happened last year.  In the first 6 weeks of the season, the Chiefs were 3-3.  Why?  Because teams were attacking the Chiefs like Tampa did in the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs took a different approach and then finished the season winning 9 of their last 11 games.  Why?  Because they changed their offense.


Evidence?

Go take a look at Hill's numbers the last few years and last year.  What stands out?  Output to volume disparity.  You may point to a career high in targets and receptions, but notice the decrease yards per reception, the reduction in TD's, and his second worst yards per game for a season.  I believe that's what the OP was looking at and his most recent post from Hill, is intimating.

Look at Hill's numbers from 2017-2020.  His "average season" (based on 14 games), 77 receptions, 1200 yards, and 10 TD's.  Then, look at his final numbers last year... 111, 1239, 10.  So with 3 extra games and 34 more receptions, he yielded only 39 extra yards and no increase in TD's.  Yikes.  Look at his average for his first 6 games last year, he had 46 receptions, 592 yards, and 5 TDs, averaging just over 22.5 fantasy points per week.  Over the last 11 games, he totaled 65 receptions, 647 yards, and 4 TDs which means you averaged just short of 14 fantasy points per week.  That's a substantial drop.  He was WR2 through the first 6 weeks... over the last 11, he was WR15.

Looking at Hill's perspective of him believing the Chiefs tried to suppress his value, I could see an argument.  If you take his first 6 weeks and project that out of 17 weeks, that comes to 130 receptions, 1677 yards, and 14 TD's... yet, he finished with 111, 1239, and 9.  Why?  Because if you take his last 11 games and pro-rate that over 17 games, his season output would have been 100, 1000, and 6.  That's not good.

 

Now, do I think the Chiefs did that on purpose?  Yes... but they did it to win, it had nothing to do with decreasing his value.  They used Hill more as a short-route possession guy instead of a big play guy explosive guy.

That's a really good analysis. I do enjoy a good conspiracy theory however :)

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FYI McKinnon re-signs to join RoJo and CEH.

looks like it could be a 3 headed monster

though all 3 RB's are pass catchers.  I could see them running something similar to the 2 TE setup the pats ran very successfully with Hernandez and Gronk.

only difference is that they are using RB's instead of TEs.   The fact they have Kelce also helps.

LB's are gonna need to cover these guys.  most teams already float a safety or a DB to cover Kelce.  but this should create mismatches and if the LB's dont do what they should one of the RB's could spring wide open on almost every play.

at least... if they utilize the personell as they should.

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I’m giving a slight edge to R Jones, he might be the better inside runner.  

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17 hours ago, Ray_T said:

FYI McKinnon re-signs to join RoJo and CEH.

looks like it could be a 3 headed monster

though all 3 RB's are pass catchers.  I could see them running something similar to the 2 TE setup the pats ran very successfully with Hernandez and Gronk.

only difference is that they are using RB's instead of TEs.   The fact they have Kelce also helps.

LB's are gonna need to cover these guys.  most teams already float a safety or a DB to cover Kelce.  but this should create mismatches and if the LB's dont do what they should one of the RB's could spring wide open on almost every play.

at least... if they utilize the personell as they should.

Jones isn't really a pass catcher.  He's actually pretty bad at it... as well as pass blocking.  What he is good at, is a 1st and 2nd down runner.  I think Jones will be the lead back (1st and 2nd down), with CEH as the 3rd down back, and McKinnon as the all-purpose backup, but used more as a receiver or a fill-in if Jones gets hurt (or fumbles).

I'd expect Jones to get about 14 carries a game, with about a catch or 2 and CEH with about 7 carries and about 5 or 6 pass targets.  That'll put them at around 360 rushes between the two of them for the season.  Sprinkle in McKinnon with some scraps as a runner, but maybe 3 or 4 pass targets a game, with Mahomes and other RB's getting about 4 carries a game.

The Chiefs threw 675 passes & 431 rushes last year, but I think that gap closes a bit this year... I'm thinking 640 and 470.  It's my guess that without Hill, they'll be less explosive and a little more methodic.  I think that'll require longer drives (in the number of plays), which will require more rushing.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Jones isn't really a pass catcher.  He's actually pretty bad at it... as well as pass blocking.  What he is good at, is a 1st and 2nd down runner.  I think Jones will be the lead back (1st and 2nd down), with CEH as the 3rd down back, and McKinnon as the all-purpose backup, but used more as a receiver or a fill-in if Jones gets hurt (or fumbles).

I'd expect Jones to get about 14 carries a game, with about a catch or 2 and CEH with about 7 carries and about 5 or 6 pass targets.  That'll put them at around 360 rushes between the two of them for the season.  Sprinkle in McKinnon with some scraps as a runner, but maybe 3 or 4 pass targets a game, with Mahomes and other RB's getting about 4 carries a game.

The Chiefs threw 675 passes & 431 rushes last year, but I think that gap closes a bit this year... I'm thinking 640 and 470.  It's my guess that without Hill, they'll be less explosive and a little more methodic.  I think that'll require longer drives (in the number of plays), which will require more rushing.

I was waiting for you to chime in.

I'm a bit surprised.   with the way you spoke of Jones on some of the tampa threads, I didnt think you would be predicting he'd be leading the committee.   

I know you dont like the way he fumbles, and I suspect Reid may be the same line of thinking as you (at least about the fumbles)

I do think Reid gives CEH an opportunity to save his job to start the year, but if he does not perform to the level needed, the leash is pretty short.

That said.... it is early in the pre season. lots can change here between now and week 1.

 

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42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I was waiting for you to chime in.

I'm a bit surprised.   with the way you spoke of Jones on some of the tampa threads, I didnt think you would be predicting he'd be leading the committee.   

I know you dont like the way he fumbles, and I suspect Reid may be the same line of thinking as you (at least about the fumbles)

I do think Reid gives CEH an opportunity to save his job to start the year, but if he does not perform to the level needed, the leash is pretty short.

That said.... it is early in the pre season. lots can change here between now and week 1.

 

Jones is a solid runner, he's just not a great runner.  He lead the the committee in Tampa in 2020 if you recall, until he got hurt and got COVID.  You may not remember this, but Fournette almost got cut before the playoffs.  If you noticed, Jones was having a pretty solid season.  He almost rushed for 1,000 yards in 14 games... and getting benched twice (Week 2 for missing a block that got Brady killed & Week 8 for fumbling).  In his other 12 games, he had 178 carries (almost 15 per game), and on the season, he averaged over 5 yards per carry.  That said, just because he's leading committee in carries, it doesn't mean that's how it'll translate in fantasy.  I see CEH being quite involved in the passing game.  In a PPR league, CEH might outperform Jones.

The fumbling, and Reid's tolerance of it, is what will be the determining factor.  Both Jones and CEH had 2 fumbles last year.  I don't know how that'll shake out.  From what I've seen, I think Jones is a better runner than CEH.  Could he get a chance to be the lead guy?  Sure.  I'm just not so sure he'll do it.

Agreed, it's June and a lot can change... it's all guessing until practices and pre-season games get going.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Jones is a better runner than CEH.  Could he get a chance to be the lead guy?  Sure.  I'm just not so sure he'll do it.

so far in their respective careers I'd agree.  Jones is a better runner.   not by a lot but certainly noticeable.

CEH is still young and can improve and so is Jones.  I think there is more upside there for both players but I do think CEH is a better pass catcher (which is probably why you think hes a 3rd down back)

Bottom line:  both players largely have a reasonably similar skillset.   I'd be surprised if They dont go with a lot more 2 back sets on first or second down (or even 3rd down)

the LB's will find it difficult to figure if either  RB is staying in to block or going for a pass and a blown assignment with either of these could be trouble.   There are some cool plays Reid can potentially run with both RB's on the field.    Whether he does it or not remains to be seen, but I think its gonna be an interesting offense to watch.

Mckinnon also has a similar skillset but I think his superpower is as a pass catcher too.    so how he works into things I dont know, but it will be very interesting to say the least.

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Mmm I don’t think they have reasonably the same skillset.  Jones is the better runner, CEH the better rec.  

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28 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mmm I don’t think they have reasonably the same skillset.  Jones is the better runner, CEH the better rec.  

the important thing is they can both catch passes as well as run.

from that perspective.... similar.

they dont have to change the playbook when they switch from one back to the other.  so to me, that means similar skillset.

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58 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

so far in their respective careers I'd agree.  Jones is a better runner.   not by a lot but certainly noticeable.

CEH is still young and can improve and so is Jones.  I think there is more upside there for both players but I do think CEH is a better pass catcher (which is probably why you think hes a 3rd down back)

Bottom line:  both players largely have a reasonably similar skillset.   I'd be surprised if They dont go with a lot more 2 back sets on first or second down (or even 3rd down)

the LB's will find it difficult to figure if either  RB is staying in to block or going for a pass and a blown assignment with either of these could be trouble.   There are some cool plays Reid can potentially run with both RB's on the field.    Whether he does it or not remains to be seen, but I think its gonna be an interesting offense to watch.

Mckinnon also has a similar skillset but I think his superpower is as a pass catcher too.    so how he works into things I dont know, but it will be very interesting to say the least.

Yeah, you may very well be right on the 2-back sets.  I can certainly see that.  Reid did do that early on in Philly back in the day, when necessary.

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15 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, you may very well be right on the 2-back sets.  I can certainly see that.  Reid did do that early on in Philly back in the day, when necessary.

with the personell, this strategy makes sense too.

both players on the field.  when you cover one, the other burns you.   This type of offense would put a lot of pressure on the Linebackers of the opposing defense.   May also make it tough for them to blitz when there are so many potential players on the field who can catch the ball.

McKinnon being one of them.

in theory they could even do some 3 back sets.    I dont see that happening much but I could see Reid doing up one or two plays like that.

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50 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

the important thing is they can both catch passes as well as run.

from that perspective.... similar.

they dont have to change the playbook when they switch from one back to the other.  so to me, that means similar skillset.

I don’t think they both can catch similarity, so I think they have a different skillset.  CEH is much better   

CEH doesn’t run will between the tackles, I think R Jones does.  I really don’t see the same skillset, that’s why they brought in R Jones.  

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Mahomes surprised by the comments of ex teammate Hill, thinks he was just trying to get his podcast going.  

 

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Isiah Pacheco every time I check out KC for ff news, his name tops the list.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Isiah Pacheco every time I check out KC for ff news, his name tops the list.  

scouting report looks decent.   he runs a sub 4.4-40 and of course not great in pass pro, but thats not entirely abnormal for guys coming out of college.

there  might be something to this.  Keep us posted if you hear anything about this kid

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If he does get work, what a messy situation the KC Rbs will be for ff owners.  

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54 minutes ago, weepaws said:

If he does get work, what a messy situation the KC Rbs will be for ff owners.  

from what I hear it may take a while to get his pass pro up to snuff.

even if hes better running the ball, the shoddy pass pro limits him.   It will take at least half a season to get the pass pro situation fixed.   Reid wont allow a RB to get Mahomes killed.   Thats his meal ticket.

but hes a good candidate to be a backup RB until those skills are acquired.

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They have both CEH and McKinnon in the passing game, and R Jones and Pacheco in the run game , as a ff owner it’s going to be messy. 

Cant trust any of them more then a rb 4.  

I’m sure someone every game will be better then that, but which one , and when.  

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19 hours ago, weepaws said:

Isiah Pacheco every time I check out KC for ff news, his name tops the list.  

Read today that’s hes been running some plays from the slot position.  

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9 hours ago, weepaws said:

They have both CEH and McKinnon in the passing game, and R Jones and Pacheco in the run game , as a ff owner it’s going to be messy. 

Cant trust any of them more then a rb 4.  

I’m sure someone every game will be better then that, but which one , and when.  

I still think the job belongs to CEH.  its his to lose.  but Pacheco is I think planning for the day when CEH is gone.   he may be a draft darling for next year.   Not sure hes ready this year.   Hes a player to watch for sure.   I actually liked his scouting report a lot.  it just looks like he needs a bit of time to develop before hes ready to be a starter.

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11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

FTFY

fair enough.

 

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Mmm I’m not sold that the job belongs to CEH. They did bring back McKinnon.  And picked up R Jones, I think it’s going to be a wide open RBBC.  Very frustrating if you are apart of it.  

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On 6/6/2022 at 2:03 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Now, do I think the Chiefs did that on purpose?  Yes... but they did it to win, it had nothing to do with decreasing his value.  They used Hill more as a short-route possession guy instead of a big play guy explosive guy.

of course they did it to win.

if teams take away your bread and butter (in this case the deep routes) and they put pressure on the passer so the deep route doesnt have enough time to get open, then the natural way to fix it is to have him run routes that are not quite as deep so Mahomes has time to get the ball into the hands of his #1 playmaker.

its just common sense really.

you are 100% correct.

anyone who says anything different is drinking the conspiracy Kool-aid and really isnt looking at what is happening.

you could argue the same in Pittsburgh.   big Ben shortened up his average throw because of 2 reasons:   

1) the line wasnt very good, so he couldnt afford to hold the ball to make deeper plays.

2) his arm was in decline and he wasnt as accurate on those deeper throws.

so he adjusted.    not for entirely the same reason as Mahomes (well the time in the pocket thing was similar but its not really the same argument)

thats what good coaches and QB's and teams do.    They adjust their game so they can get the best possible success.

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On 8/7/2022 at 4:51 PM, weepaws said:

Isiah Pacheco every time I check out KC for ff news, his name tops the list.  

I'm starting to see some hype for this Pacheco kid on other sites and camp reviews.

You may be onto something here.

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I'm BACK!

If history is any guide, i would avoid the entire KC offense.  In Mahomes last 2 games without Hill, he threw for 636 yards and 1 TD.  This was against DET and the IND back in 2019.  Teams will no longer need to keep the safeties back to give the corners support against Hill.  Expect LOTS of blitz and Mahomes getting hit.

Kelce also look a step slower last season. 

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Avoid no, I like JuJu this season, I think he could be in for a rebound season, but If I changed my draft strategy this season, I would happily draft Kelce at his current adp, shhh I just might.  Expect for CEH and his current adp I like the adp of the other backs, and R Jones tops the list.  

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6 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

I'm BACK!

If history is any guide, i would avoid the entire KC offense.  In Mahomes last 2 games without Hill, he threw for 636 yards and 1 TD.  This was against DET and the IND back in 2019.  Teams will no longer need to keep the safeties back to give the corners support against Hill.  Expect LOTS of blitz and Mahomes getting hit.

Kelce also look a step slower last season. 

I think you meant avoid at ADP, but I still disagree. Andy Reid is still there so is Mahomie. They likely won’t be as explosive as they were but still a top ten offense. I’m not avoiding a top ten offense in fantasy…

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nearly everyone that should be rostered is a good buy at the right price.

for some of these guys, the right price is their ADP, but for some it is not.

someone in KC will put up good numbers.  I'm pretty sure of that.   Its just a matter of who that person will be.     In this case we just need to do a little more homework to give ourselves a better chance of making the right call.

I think Juju can be a good WR.   Not a WR1 but a good WR nonetheless.   He should definitely be rostered if you can get him at a reasonable price.   

 

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I think JuJu current ADP is the right price for him.  

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On 8/9/2022 at 5:44 PM, jrokh said:

I think you meant avoid at ADP, but I still disagree. Andy Reid is still there so is Mahomie. They likely won’t be as explosive as they were but still a top ten offense. I’m not avoiding a top ten offense in fantasy…

At the right ADP, maybe.  Think most KC offensive players will be headaches this season.    I have Mahommes outside of top 8.

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57 minutes ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

At the right ADP, maybe.  Think most KC offensive players will be headaches this season.    I have Mahommes outside of top 8.

I agree except the last sentence.  They're still going to throw, it's just going to be a lot more spread out.  Mahomes is still probably top 5.

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On 8/9/2022 at 11:38 AM, Skinny_Bastard said:

I'm BACK!

If history is any guide, i would avoid the entire KC offense.  In Mahomes last 2 games without Hill, he threw for 636 yards and 1 TD.  This was against DET and the IND back in 2019.  Teams will no longer need to keep the safeties back to give the corners support against Hill.  Expect LOTS of blitz and Mahomes getting hit.

Kelce also look a step slower last season. 

Mahomes 2021 vs. "lots of blitz" =  #1 in passer rating and #1 in completion percentage

If I'm a Mahomes owner/fan or KC fan, please....blitz away...

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