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Tyreek Hill and K.C.'s Offense 2021

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2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, we are about to find out if hes good enough.

I dont know what else to say.   but usually when a GM spends a high draft pick or a pile of cash on a player, they usually find ways to get him the ball and give him a chance to show he is worth the cash.

But I'd argue hes one of those WR's who is that good that he can boost his QB.     hes not like most WR who beat coverage by a couple yards.  when this guy gets open he gets OPEN.

maybe Tua doesnt hit him in stride consistently like Mahomes did, but he likely still hits him when he gets open.

Either way, if a Starting QB cannot hit his #1 WR that usually means his career wont last long.   if he stinks it out now, he has likely no excuse.

It will be an interesting year.  I suppose if the price was right I'd draft a player from the Miami offense.  I am not currently planning to do it but its not impossible. The price needs to be right if I'm gonna buy.

If I could get Tyreek as a low end WR1 or high end WR2 I'd probably consider buying but it would also depend on who else is on the board.   Hes not a top end WR1 in this offense.

 

 

From what I’m seeing, Hill as a adp in the second round, and Waddle late third early fourth, I can’t see be owning either one of them at that price. Not with so much questions that I have about Tua ability as a nfl Qb.  

Your right Hill is very good , and that’s going to be a big help to Tua, but Tua still as limitations I think at Qb , that could hurt the value to both Hill and Waddle. 

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26 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Looking at Hill's perspective of him believing the Chiefs tried to suppress his value

That was not the perspective of Hill or of his agent; that was the perspective of the interviewer who was, in my opinion, just trying to create verbal click bait.

You're right about the Chiefs becoming more of a short, possession-type passing offense, though; I talked about this a little when the Hill trade was first announced.  I believe that's why they were willing to let Hill go for the king's ransom, and put that toward receivers that fit that type of offense, like Juju Smith-Schuster and eventually, Skyy Moore.  They have Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to stretch the defenses and keep them honest, but I believe the vast majority of the work is going to be done underneath in the 5-10 yard area to Kelce, Juju, Skyy and the RBs, reducing the time Mahomes needs in the pocket.

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

From what I’m seeing, Hill as a adp in the second round, and Waddle late third early fourth, I can’t see be owning either one of them at that price. Not with so much questions that I have about Tua ability as a nfl Qb.  

Your right Hill is very good , and that’s going to be a big help to Tua, but Tua still as limitations I think at Qb , that could hurt the value to both Hill and Waddle. 

well a second round ADP likely means hes being drafted as a low to mid range WR1.

in round 1 the elite WR1's come off the board (top 3-5) and usually by the end of round 2 your top 8-12 WR are taken.

usually your last WR1 players are taken in the early part of the third round.

so this would likely make him a mid range WR1.   too pricey for my tastes, but each to their own.

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Yeah I’m not taking Hill in the second, I think he and Waddle are a round to early. 

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16 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

So, here's what I think happened last year.  In the first 6 weeks of the season, the Chiefs were 3-3.  Why?  Because teams were attacking the Chiefs like Tampa did in the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs took a different approach and then finished the season winning 9 of their last 11 games.  Why?  Because they changed their offense.


Evidence?

Go take a look at Hill's numbers the last few years and last year.  What stands out?  Output to volume disparity.  You may point to a career high in targets and receptions, but notice the decrease yards per reception, the reduction in TD's, and his second worst yards per game for a season.  I believe that's what the OP was looking at and his most recent post from Hill, is intimating.

Look at Hill's numbers from 2017-2020.  His "average season" (based on 14 games), 77 receptions, 1200 yards, and 10 TD's.  Then, look at his final numbers last year... 111, 1239, 10.  So with 3 extra games and 34 more receptions, he yielded only 39 extra yards and no increase in TD's.  Yikes.  Look at his average for his first 6 games last year, he had 46 receptions, 592 yards, and 5 TDs, averaging just over 22.5 fantasy points per week.  Over the last 11 games, he totaled 65 receptions, 647 yards, and 4 TDs which means you averaged just short of 14 fantasy points per week.  That's a substantial drop.  He was WR2 through the first 6 weeks... over the last 11, he was WR15.

Looking at Hill's perspective of him believing the Chiefs tried to suppress his value, I could see an argument.  If you take his first 6 weeks and project that out of 17 weeks, that comes to 130 receptions, 1677 yards, and 14 TD's... yet, he finished with 111, 1239, and 9.  Why?  Because if you take his last 11 games and pro-rate that over 17 games, his season output would have been 100, 1000, and 6.  That's not good.

 

Now, do I think the Chiefs did that on purpose?  Yes... but they did it to win, it had nothing to do with decreasing his value.  They used Hill more as a short-route possession guy instead of a big play guy explosive guy.

That's a really good analysis. I do enjoy a good conspiracy theory however :)

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FYI McKinnon re-signs to join RoJo and CEH.

looks like it could be a 3 headed monster

though all 3 RB's are pass catchers.  I could see them running something similar to the 2 TE setup the pats ran very successfully with Hernandez and Gronk.

only difference is that they are using RB's instead of TEs.   The fact they have Kelce also helps.

LB's are gonna need to cover these guys.  most teams already float a safety or a DB to cover Kelce.  but this should create mismatches and if the LB's dont do what they should one of the RB's could spring wide open on almost every play.

at least... if they utilize the personell as they should.

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I’m giving a slight edge to R Jones, he might be the better inside runner.  

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17 hours ago, Ray_T said:

FYI McKinnon re-signs to join RoJo and CEH.

looks like it could be a 3 headed monster

though all 3 RB's are pass catchers.  I could see them running something similar to the 2 TE setup the pats ran very successfully with Hernandez and Gronk.

only difference is that they are using RB's instead of TEs.   The fact they have Kelce also helps.

LB's are gonna need to cover these guys.  most teams already float a safety or a DB to cover Kelce.  but this should create mismatches and if the LB's dont do what they should one of the RB's could spring wide open on almost every play.

at least... if they utilize the personell as they should.

Jones isn't really a pass catcher.  He's actually pretty bad at it... as well as pass blocking.  What he is good at, is a 1st and 2nd down runner.  I think Jones will be the lead back (1st and 2nd down), with CEH as the 3rd down back, and McKinnon as the all-purpose backup, but used more as a receiver or a fill-in if Jones gets hurt (or fumbles).

I'd expect Jones to get about 14 carries a game, with about a catch or 2 and CEH with about 7 carries and about 5 or 6 pass targets.  That'll put them at around 360 rushes between the two of them for the season.  Sprinkle in McKinnon with some scraps as a runner, but maybe 3 or 4 pass targets a game, with Mahomes and other RB's getting about 4 carries a game.

The Chiefs threw 675 passes & 431 rushes last year, but I think that gap closes a bit this year... I'm thinking 640 and 470.  It's my guess that without Hill, they'll be less explosive and a little more methodic.  I think that'll require longer drives (in the number of plays), which will require more rushing.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Jones isn't really a pass catcher.  He's actually pretty bad at it... as well as pass blocking.  What he is good at, is a 1st and 2nd down runner.  I think Jones will be the lead back (1st and 2nd down), with CEH as the 3rd down back, and McKinnon as the all-purpose backup, but used more as a receiver or a fill-in if Jones gets hurt (or fumbles).

I'd expect Jones to get about 14 carries a game, with about a catch or 2 and CEH with about 7 carries and about 5 or 6 pass targets.  That'll put them at around 360 rushes between the two of them for the season.  Sprinkle in McKinnon with some scraps as a runner, but maybe 3 or 4 pass targets a game, with Mahomes and other RB's getting about 4 carries a game.

The Chiefs threw 675 passes & 431 rushes last year, but I think that gap closes a bit this year... I'm thinking 640 and 470.  It's my guess that without Hill, they'll be less explosive and a little more methodic.  I think that'll require longer drives (in the number of plays), which will require more rushing.

I was waiting for you to chime in.

I'm a bit surprised.   with the way you spoke of Jones on some of the tampa threads, I didnt think you would be predicting he'd be leading the committee.   

I know you dont like the way he fumbles, and I suspect Reid may be the same line of thinking as you (at least about the fumbles)

I do think Reid gives CEH an opportunity to save his job to start the year, but if he does not perform to the level needed, the leash is pretty short.

That said.... it is early in the pre season. lots can change here between now and week 1.

 

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42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I was waiting for you to chime in.

I'm a bit surprised.   with the way you spoke of Jones on some of the tampa threads, I didnt think you would be predicting he'd be leading the committee.   

I know you dont like the way he fumbles, and I suspect Reid may be the same line of thinking as you (at least about the fumbles)

I do think Reid gives CEH an opportunity to save his job to start the year, but if he does not perform to the level needed, the leash is pretty short.

That said.... it is early in the pre season. lots can change here between now and week 1.

 

Jones is a solid runner, he's just not a great runner.  He lead the the committee in Tampa in 2020 if you recall, until he got hurt and got COVID.  You may not remember this, but Fournette almost got cut before the playoffs.  If you noticed, Jones was having a pretty solid season.  He almost rushed for 1,000 yards in 14 games... and getting benched twice (Week 2 for missing a block that got Brady killed & Week 8 for fumbling).  In his other 12 games, he had 178 carries (almost 15 per game), and on the season, he averaged over 5 yards per carry.  That said, just because he's leading committee in carries, it doesn't mean that's how it'll translate in fantasy.  I see CEH being quite involved in the passing game.  In a PPR league, CEH might outperform Jones.

The fumbling, and Reid's tolerance of it, is what will be the determining factor.  Both Jones and CEH had 2 fumbles last year.  I don't know how that'll shake out.  From what I've seen, I think Jones is a better runner than CEH.  Could he get a chance to be the lead guy?  Sure.  I'm just not so sure he'll do it.

Agreed, it's June and a lot can change... it's all guessing until practices and pre-season games get going.

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31 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Ronald Jones replaces Darrel Williams.

Agreed.  Also an upgrade.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Jones is a better runner than CEH.  Could he get a chance to be the lead guy?  Sure.  I'm just not so sure he'll do it.

so far in their respective careers I'd agree.  Jones is a better runner.   not by a lot but certainly noticeable.

CEH is still young and can improve and so is Jones.  I think there is more upside there for both players but I do think CEH is a better pass catcher (which is probably why you think hes a 3rd down back)

Bottom line:  both players largely have a reasonably similar skillset.   I'd be surprised if They dont go with a lot more 2 back sets on first or second down (or even 3rd down)

the LB's will find it difficult to figure if either  RB is staying in to block or going for a pass and a blown assignment with either of these could be trouble.   There are some cool plays Reid can potentially run with both RB's on the field.    Whether he does it or not remains to be seen, but I think its gonna be an interesting offense to watch.

Mckinnon also has a similar skillset but I think his superpower is as a pass catcher too.    so how he works into things I dont know, but it will be very interesting to say the least.

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Mmm I don’t think they have reasonably the same skillset.  Jones is the better runner, CEH the better rec.  

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28 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mmm I don’t think they have reasonably the same skillset.  Jones is the better runner, CEH the better rec.  

the important thing is they can both catch passes as well as run.

from that perspective.... similar.

they dont have to change the playbook when they switch from one back to the other.  so to me, that means similar skillset.

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58 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

so far in their respective careers I'd agree.  Jones is a better runner.   not by a lot but certainly noticeable.

CEH is still young and can improve and so is Jones.  I think there is more upside there for both players but I do think CEH is a better pass catcher (which is probably why you think hes a 3rd down back)

Bottom line:  both players largely have a reasonably similar skillset.   I'd be surprised if They dont go with a lot more 2 back sets on first or second down (or even 3rd down)

the LB's will find it difficult to figure if either  RB is staying in to block or going for a pass and a blown assignment with either of these could be trouble.   There are some cool plays Reid can potentially run with both RB's on the field.    Whether he does it or not remains to be seen, but I think its gonna be an interesting offense to watch.

Mckinnon also has a similar skillset but I think his superpower is as a pass catcher too.    so how he works into things I dont know, but it will be very interesting to say the least.

Yeah, you may very well be right on the 2-back sets.  I can certainly see that.  Reid did do that early on in Philly back in the day, when necessary.

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15 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, you may very well be right on the 2-back sets.  I can certainly see that.  Reid did do that early on in Philly back in the day, when necessary.

with the personell, this strategy makes sense too.

both players on the field.  when you cover one, the other burns you.   This type of offense would put a lot of pressure on the Linebackers of the opposing defense.   May also make it tough for them to blitz when there are so many potential players on the field who can catch the ball.

McKinnon being one of them.

in theory they could even do some 3 back sets.    I dont see that happening much but I could see Reid doing up one or two plays like that.

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50 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

the important thing is they can both catch passes as well as run.

from that perspective.... similar.

they dont have to change the playbook when they switch from one back to the other.  so to me, that means similar skillset.

I don’t think they both can catch similarity, so I think they have a different skillset.  CEH is much better   

CEH doesn’t run will between the tackles, I think R Jones does.  I really don’t see the same skillset, that’s why they brought in R Jones.  

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Mahomes surprised by the comments of ex teammate Hill, thinks he was just trying to get his podcast going.  

 

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