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UPDATE: Melvin Gordon resigns with Denver

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1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

You have to value him as a low end RB3 or RB4, but you hope he ends up an RB2

Even in a 1/2 point ppr, do you see Mr White returning this season , and taking over the passing downs again? 

 

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Well since according to you it’s all luck wouldn’t there be a 50/50 chance that Harris would be better? 
 

Mmmmm…..

thanks.

 

So we agree, since it’s all luck it is a 50/50 shot.    Only certainty in life is Jesus.  

Thanks. J

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36 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Even in a 1/2 point ppr, do you see Mr White returning this season , and taking over the passing downs again? 

 

Hard to say. Mac loved him last year, and what rookie QB wouldn’t? That said, I feel like White’s best days are well behind him.

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2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Hard to say. Mac loved him last year, and what rookie QB wouldn’t? That said, I feel like White’s best days are well behind him.

true.  but I have found scat backs like him tend to have slightly longer careers than your regular RB.

they are not running between the tackles with regularity so they dont get run down as bad over the course of a season.

My bet is hes got at least one or two years left in him. 

after the age of 32 it gets more dicey.   But I think you're probably safe for at least one year if you got him (ppr format only)

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Mmm I don’t know, he might not be as good as he once was, but I think he could still be pretty good in a 1/2 ppr.  

White is only 30 so I like his chances of being a valuable asset to the Patriots. 

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On 4/15/2022 at 8:42 AM, weepaws said:

Dillon woke up last season, which hurt A Jones, if Gordon stays its going to be hard to see J Williams being more then a low rb1- high rb2.  

 

 

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Well I guess Javonte Williams value takes a hit. Then again I think the Broncos will use Williams more than Gordon and I could see a 70 to 30 split for the two. Still makes it hard to see Williamd as RB1 even with the split. Dude has skills and if they have aspirations of a SB run they'd better rely on Williams more heavily to help get them there. Just use Gordon to spell him.

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1 hour ago, DocNiner said:

Well I guess Javonte Williams value takes a hit. Then again I think the Broncos will use Williams more than Gordon and I could see a 70 to 30 split for the two. Still makes it hard to see Williamd as RB1 even with the split. Dude has skills and if they have aspirations of a SB run they'd better rely on Williams more heavily to help get them there. Just use Gordon to spell him.

70-30 seems a bit optimistic. 

I was thinking 60-40 at best.  Unless Williams is a whole lot better than what hes shown so far.   (which is certainly possible)   If that happens, hes kicking down the door to become the bellcow RB and getting at least 1500 total yards for the season (rush and receiving)

We would need consistent 100 yard games for that to happen Because Gordon is a solid veteran starter.    he may not be spectacular.  most years he gets like 900 yards rushing and a bunch of receiving yards, that usually takes him in the 1200+ total yards range.

 

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I don’t think Javonte’s value takes a hit. There was always going to be a second fiddle, whether Gordon or somebody else. And if there wasn’t, well then neither Javonte nor any RB is likely to make it a full 17 games as a traditional bell cow

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23 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I don’t think Javonte’s value takes a hit. There was always going to be a second fiddle, whether Gordon or somebody else. And if there wasn’t, well then neither Javonte nor any RB is likely to make it a full 17 games as a traditional bell cow

True, but there were some in here speculating that Javonte would be a top 3 fantasy RB if Gordon wasn’t back. Sounded a little too rich for me.

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Last season Williams had 15 more touches, those came in the passing game, they had equal about of rushing att 203. 

I think it’s going to be a 55/45 split, their head coach worked it out very nicely with Jones and Dillon last season, he’ll rotate these two the same.  

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36 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Last season Williams had 15 more touches, those came in the passing game, they had equal about of rushing att 203. 

I think it’s going to be a 55/45 split, their head coach worked it out very nicely with Jones and Dillon last season, he’ll rotate these two the same.  

I dont think its at all unreasonable to project a 55-45 split at minimum.

There were a couple games early in the season and one midseason where it looks like his usage was low. (likely because hes a rookie and blew a blocking assignment or two or something of the like)   If we assume that doesnt happen this year, and his play remains the same, his usage goes up.   its a mathematical certainty.

That said, I think his usuage can go up a bit more into the range of 60-40.  Especially if gordon gets hurt or something of the like.

I'd draft him as a solid RB2 knowing he has some RB1 upside.

I think given the current situation, it might be a bit risky to draft him as a RB1.  Gordon is a very capable back.  more capable than your typical 1A RB.

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55/45 split or even a 60/40 split would hurt the chance of J Williams being a rb 1.  

Gordon is a darn good rb.  And the Broncos would have either picked up or drafted another rb, but not has ready as Gordon imo.  

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I dont think its at all unreasonable to project a 55-45 split at minimum.

There were a couple games early in the season and one midseason where it looks like his usage was low. (likely because hes a rookie and blew a blocking assignment or two or something of the like)   If we assume that doesnt happen this year, and his play remains the same, his usage goes up.   its a mathematical certainty.

That said, I think his usuage can go up a bit more into the range of 60-40.  Especially if gordon gets hurt or something of the like.

I'd draft him as a solid RB2 knowing he has some RB1 upside.

I think given the current situation, it might be a bit risky to draft him as a RB1.  Gordon is a very capable back.  more capable than your typical 1A RB.

He’s an RB1

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1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

He’s an RB1

he might be.

Too early to say yet.   He definitely has that upside.   But the presence of Gordon definitely hinders his value.

for me we are talking about the difference between a high end RB2 or a low end RB1.   Likely less than one fantasy point per game. between an RB11 or 12 and an RB13 or 14.

he has higher upside than your typical RB2 thats for sure.  but to do that he has to kick the door down and take this presumed committee and make the job his and his alone.

I would argue he has the best 1A back in the league sitting beside him playing.   (or arguably the best backup in the NFL)  so I think its tough to call him a clearcut RB1 yet.  Though I tend to go conservative on guys like this early in the season and as the preseason gets rolling I usually warm up and rank guys like this higher if the reports out of camp are good.

so its very possible you see this almost the same as I do, but you are more glass half full guy and I'm more glass half empty guy at this time haha

Either way, we are in the ballpark.  If you rank him at RB11 and I rank him at RB13 or 14 we are not arguing over much.

 

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Last year 1/ 2 point ppr, J Williams was 26th in avg per game, that should improve this season, he should be their first rb up this season, but I think a rb1 with Gordon back is to much of a reach.  Gordon is a very good rb himself , and will see a lot of playing time.  

 

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54 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Last year 1/ 2 point ppr, J Williams was 26th in avg per game, that should improve this season, he should be their first rb up this season, but I think a rb1 with Gordon back is to much of a reach.  Gordon is a very good rb himself , and will see a lot of playing time.  

 

Second half of the year, when he was actually playing in full, he was RB14 in my league. I.e., borderline RB1, and now he will have have a full offseason and an actual NFL QB.

But please do draft him as RB26 :doublethumbsup:

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Both Williams and Gordon will have the same actual Qb, I think Williams will indeed improve, I think I’ll be ranking as a high rb2, so he’ll be in my top 14.  His last three games he avg 7 points per game 1/2 ppr, his best ff games was week 13 which is a game that Gordon didn’t play in.  

Yea I’ll keep as a high to mid rb 2.  Those other ff wise owners can have him as a rb1 , even with Gordon back 🤪

Darn I Hope in my two leagues some other take him as a rb1, I’ll take Gordon much later and still come out almost just as good.  

Thanks. 

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1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Second half of the year, when he was actually playing in full, he was RB14 in my league

and this is probably a reasonable estimate of where he is at end of season.   first half he was learning.  looked like he got benched one game for doing whatever rookies sometimes do.

those things wont likely happen this next year.

RB12 is likely a fair estimate.  if he improves he may be better.    if they had a lesser backup, I'd say hes a top 10 RB.  but like I said, this likely only happens now if he kicks the door down.

it can happen, but for me the sample size is too small at this point for me to confidently spend an early second round pick on him (as that's likely the cutoff for RB1 in fantasy.

 

that said.... in a keeper/dynasty league a rebuilding team can justify paying the low end RB1 price and if he lights it up you have a solid keeper.  but that is a different situation and it makes sense to overpay a bit if you have the ability to keep him for a few years.

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I said this last season, I would have taken J Williams first even before Harris if I was in a keeper type league.  

 

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