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Doug Orth's Rookie Profiles - 2022

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If you want the real scoop on how good Jameson Williams is watch Chris Simms take.

Otherwise listen to bozos who compares him to a crappy Ted Ginn Jr.  (and yes I realize it is a stupid range too big to provide a shred of value) and miss out on by far the best rookie WR.  There are several good WRs in this draft, but none compare to Jameson Williams.   And yes, he may miss out on 3-4 games, but I am talking talent and long term potential, not early season fantasy football production. 

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Long term potential means little in a redraft, I wan to see it this season.  

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so in the video they compared him to Devonta smith.   who got 900 yards as a rookie.  and your guy is recovering from an ACL injury.   rookie season in the 700-800 range seems about right given the medical thing and even your video they speak of this as well.

That doesnt translate to the 1500+ you predicted for this year.

I still stand by the fftoday analysis.   

Because if(yes big if) at the NFL level he cannot easily beat the Jam at  the line, you know what kind of player he turns into?   Ted Ginn.

hence the low end comp being him.

Thats how you read a report like this.   if a player cannot overcome their weaknesses what kind of player do they become at the NFL level?

Thats a pretty solid floor.  Ginn may not have been a stud but he had a long career.  They are basically saying there is no way this guy doesnt become a pro.  our question is how good does he become?

either way this is my last post on this topic.   

I dont see you speaking to the high end comp in your comments  either.  you cant just pick out one part and ignore the other.  its a package deal

clearly your video guy thinks he eventually becomes a star, but not likely this year.   he seems to think the guy will miss the first 3-5 games of the year.   so I'd say maybe temper your first year expectations for the guy.

I think hes still really good.  just not likely this year.   if he can add a few pounds to his frame in the offseason he will be better equipped to beat the jam too.  

 

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20 hours ago, weepaws said:

Long term potential means little in a redraft, I wan to see it this season.  

Do you think this was really a fantasy football analysis for one-year projections for redraft leagues?  It is more of a general analysis of long term potential of incoming rookies that would be the focus of people in keeper leagues.  Keeper leagues care a ton about all rookies coming in, redrafts not so much.   I see Detroit playing it safe and sitting Jameson for the first 3 to 4 weeks.   Jameson has best long term potential for WRs in keeper leagues.  For redrafts completely different story.  

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2 hours ago, jonmx said:

Do you think this was really a fantasy football analysis for one-year projections for redraft leagues?  It is more of a general analysis of long term potential of incoming rookies that would be the focus of people in keeper leagues.  Keeper leagues care a ton about all rookies coming in, redrafts not so much.   I see Detroit playing it safe and sitting Jameson for the first 3 to 4 weeks.   Jameson has best long term potential for WRs in keeper leagues.  For redrafts completely different story.  

The vast majority of people play redraft so its all about what a player gives you this year for most everyone.  

even in Dynasty... if you wanna win this year, those are the types of players you concern yourself with.   does the player help you win now.

either way, hes a very good prospect.    Just dont expect him to light it up this year.

If I was a betting man, the Lions have a special trainer assigned to work with him to add a few pounds, and some strength without losing his speed.

(there is an art to it.  he cant put on the weight too quickly without affecting his speed)

if they can get him to add 10 to 15 lbs by the end of this nfl season and maybe another 5 lbs in the offseason without losing that blistering speed, he will be far more ready to put up big numbers.

in Dynasty hes likely to eventually become the 2nd best WR taken in this draft.   possibly even the best.   the injury and his size probably prevented him from being a top 10 pick.    but he has a reasonably good sized frame, so he can add some weight without losing his speed if he does it right.  that will make him tougher to Jam at the line.    to some exent this naturally happens when a player gets older anyways, but a well crafted training program should be able to add a few pounds too.

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On 5/9/2022 at 8:14 AM, jonmx said:

Jameson is by far the best receiver of this loaded draft class.

This I don't understand.  He played his first 2 college seasons at Ohio State, and was at best, the 3th best WR behind Olave and Wilson and would've been the 4th best this past year behind Smith-Njigba.  Now, not only was he behind Olave and Wilson, in 2019 and 2020... he couldn't get on the field.  In those two seasons, he had 15 receptions... combined.  He was so buried that he had to leave.  Now, the two guys he couldn't even carry the jock of at Ohio State, you think he's better than both of them now?

I'm not a wanna be college scout like some people, I'm just reading the data in front of me.  The data in front of me says that he has a good chance of being a bust.

Another area of concern would be... one of which he probably could address without issue in the NFL, and that is size.  He's small.  Not short (not tall either), but small.  He's only 180 pounds.  His BMI is under 23.  Do you know how many WR's with a BMI under 25 had a 1,000 yard season since 2000?  2... DeSean Jackson and Antonio Brown.  The thing is, both of those guys are short... compact.  Williams is not short or compact.  To me, the odds seem stacked against him.

Here's what I also don't understand about Williams.  I read that he's an elite separator... well, at least at Alabama he was.  Why there?  Only there?   If he were that good, how come he was an after thought at Ohio State?  In a re-draft league... I wouldn't draft him at all.  In a keeper or dynasty league, he's probably going to go way higher than I'd think he should, so he would be on a DND list for me.

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5 hours ago, jonmx said:

Do you think this was really a fantasy football analysis for one-year projections for redraft leagues?  It is more of a general analysis of long term potential of incoming rookies that would be the focus of people in keeper leagues.  Keeper leagues care a ton about all rookies coming in, redrafts not so much.   I see Detroit playing it safe and sitting Jameson for the first 3 to 4 weeks.   Jameson has best long term potential for WRs in keeper leagues.  For redrafts completely different story.  

It is for the ones that play in redraft leagues, what says you? 

Don’t know the percentage of people who only play in  keeper leagues, but plenty of people that post here or that just come in to read the post play only in redraft leagues, or even a combination of both. 

Based on most of the crap you’ve been posting, you don’t seem to be posting about ff at all, you sound more like his agent, and a Lions fan. 

So let’s get over yourselves , and get over your so called disrespect that you feel is taking place by the  thoughts of others pertaining to mr Williams.  

Now apologize to the OP.  

Thanks. God Bless. 

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4 hours ago, weepaws said:

It is for the ones that play in redraft leagues, what says you? 

Don’t know the percentage of people who only play in  keeper leagues, but plenty of people that post here or that just come in to read the post play only in redraft leagues, or even a combination of both. 

Based on most of the crap you’ve been posting, you don’t seem to be posting about ff at all, you sound more like his agent, and a Lions fan. 

So let’s get over yourselves , and get over your so called disrespect that you feel is taking place by the  thoughts of others pertaining to mr Williams.  

Now apologize to the OP.  

Thanks. God Bless. 

Most people play redrafts leagues.  Most people obsessing about rookies play keeper leagues.  QED.

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7 hours ago, jonmx said:

Most people play redrafts leagues.  Most people obsessing about rookies play keeper leagues.  QED.

Obsessing isn’t healthy, people that do so need to seek out professional therapy.  

 Evaluating  rookies is  very important to me, I play redraft.  

Thanks.  

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On 5/13/2022 at 6:22 PM, Ray_T said:

The vast majority of people play redraft so its all about what a player gives you this year for most everyone.  

even in Dynasty... if you wanna win this year, those are the types of players you concern yourself with.   does the player help you win now.

either way, hes a very good prospect.    Just dont expect him to light it up this year.

If I was a betting man, the Lions have a special trainer assigned to work with him to add a few pounds, and some strength without losing his speed.

(there is an art to it.  he cant put on the weight too quickly without affecting his speed)

if they can get him to add 10 to 15 lbs by the end of this nfl season and maybe another 5 lbs in the offseason without losing that blistering speed, he will be far more ready to put up big numbers.

in Dynasty hes likely to eventually become the 2nd best WR taken in this draft.   possibly even the best.   the injury and his size probably prevented him from being a top 10 pick.    but he has a reasonably good sized frame, so he can add some weight without losing his speed if he does it right.  that will make him tougher to Jam at the line.    to some exent this naturally happens when a player gets older anyways, but a well crafted training program should be able to add a few pounds too.

You are talking about serious weight gain. It's unlikely it won't have an effect on speed. Otherwise it could turn into a truck :)

Hi all, let me join your forum.

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