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Deutsche Bank: major recession coming

IGotWorms

By IGotWorms
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IGotWorms

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I don’t trust these fockers and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is just a scheme to back off the Fed from further raising interest rates… but still

 

 

New YorkCNN Business — 

Deutsche Bank raised eyebrows earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit a “mild” one. 

Now, it’s warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve’s quest to knock down stubbornly high inflation.

“We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday. 

The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a “long time” before it gets back down to the Fed’s goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy.

“We regard it…as highly likely that the Fed will have to step on the brakes even more firmly, and a deep recession will be needed to bring inflation to heel,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote in its report with the ominous title, “Why the coming recession will be worse than expected.”

Behind the curve

Consumer prices spiked by 8.5% in March, thefastest pace in 40 years. The jobs market remains on fire, with Moody’s Analytics projecting that the unemployment rate will soon fall to the lowest level since the early 1950s.

To make its case, Deutsche Bank created an index that tracks the distance between inflation and unemployment over the past 60 years and the Fed’s stated goals for those metrics. That research, according to the bank, finds that the Fed today is “much further behind the curve” than it has been since the early 1980s, a period when extremely high inflation forced the central bank to raise interest rates to record highs, crushing the economy.

History shows the Fed has “never been able to correct” even smaller overshoots of inflation and employment “without pushing the economy into a significant recession,” Deutsche Bank said.

Given that the job market has “over-tightened” by as much as two percentage points of unemployment, the bank said, “Something stronger than a mild recession will be needed to do the job.” 

The good news is that Deutsche Bank sees the economy rebounding by mid-2024 as the Fed reverses course in its inflation fight.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/26/economy/inflation-recession-economy-deutsche-bank/index.html

IGotWorms FF Geek

IGotWorms

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Just now, KSB2424 said:

It’s coming, no doubt.  My company is already planning for it. 

Per the link, Goldman Sachs and UBS don’t necessarily agree. Although they don’t sound terribly optimistic either

Djgb13 FF Geek

Djgb13

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Board libs and the rest of them will say it’s trumps fault and all his decisions are what finally led to this blah blah blah. Never mind the fact that stuff started focking up his literal first day in office. All those repeals of policies led to this 

JustinCharge FF Geek

JustinCharge

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Traditionally, the first thing that happens entering a recession is a major hiring freeze and the last thing that happens is a stock market crash.  The first thing that happens exiting a recession is a stock market rally and the last thing is a hiring spree.  This time could be different because companies are struggling to fill jobs as it is due to covid, so we may not see much of a freeze.  However, one way around this problem is to keep an eye on "recession-proof" jobs and sectors. Jobs that are always always fully staffed.  If they show signs of a hiring freeze, then worry.

IGotWorms FF Geek

IGotWorms

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1 hour ago, Djgb13 said:

Board libs and the rest of them will say it’s trumps fault and all his decisions are what finally led to this blah blah blah. Never mind the fact that stuff started focking up his literal first day in office. All those repeals of policies led to this 

Who’s saying that? :wacko:

The main problem seems to be inflation, which is a global issue and likely ties back to COVID. Don’t think you can really blame anyone for that. But, I will say, we’re probably pretty lucky the Build Back Better plan didn’t make it through—that might’ve dramatically worsened inflation in this country.

Hawkeye21 FF Geek

Hawkeye21

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I don't see things getting to terrible real soon.  People are still making pretty good money and there are still a lot of jobs to be had out there.  It would be nice to see the housing market and land prices come down though.

Djgb13 FF Geek

Djgb13

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45 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Who’s saying that? :wacko:

The main problem seems to be inflation, which is a global issue and likely ties back to COVID. Don’t think you can really blame anyone for that. But, I will say, we’re probably pretty lucky the Build Back Better plan didn’t make it through—that might’ve dramatically worsened inflation in this country.

You really have to ask “who’s saying that?” :doh: damn bro you went full retard didn’t you? 

IGotWorms FF Geek

IGotWorms

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9 minutes ago, Djgb13 said:

You really have to ask “who’s saying that?” :doh: damn bro you went full retard didn’t you? 

Was there a poster here who said it’s trump's fault that there might be a recession coming? I must’ve missed it :( 

taco breath FF Geek

taco breath

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it’s trumps fault and all his decisions are what finally led to this.

  • Haha 1
TimHauck FF Geek

TimHauck

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2 hours ago, KSB2424 said:

We were due one but Covid, printing money, housing all wacky, fuel and commodity pricing through the roof, supply chain issues, inflation, on and on.  

Wasn't there technically a recession in March/April 2020?

Hardcore troubadour FF Geek

Hardcore troubadour

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 Claiming it’s a global issue. Funny. Bidens and the democrats remedy for inflation is to print more money. Is that a global issue? 

Utilit99 FF Geek

Utilit99

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20 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

 Claiming it’s a global issue. Funny. Bidens and the democrats remedy for inflation is to print more money. Is that a global issue? 

Putin's fault.

Hardcore troubadour FF Geek

Hardcore troubadour

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Just now, IGotWorms said:

Take the IMF’s word for it? https://blogs.imf.org/2022/04/19/war-dims-global-economic-outlook-as-inflation-accelerates/

I’m talking about the remedy. Which according to your side is to do more of what got us here. Also continuing with the green new fraud. 

IGotWorms FF Geek

IGotWorms

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Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’m talking about the remedy. Which according to your side is to do more of what got us here. Also continuing with the green new fraud. 

No you weren’t.

And it’s not my remedy. In fact notice how I specifically said thank goodness the build back better plan didn’t happen?

Got anything else? :dunno:

Hardcore troubadour FF Geek

Hardcore troubadour

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Just now, IGotWorms said:

No you weren’t.

And it’s not my remedy. In fact notice how I specifically said thank goodness the build back better plan didn’t happen?

Got anything else? :dunno:

Sorry.  Your display of reason and sanity threw me off. 

lod001 FF Geek

lod001

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The # of cold calls wanting to buy my house has ramped up significantly over the past month. I was asking $2 million but now its $ million and the next guy that calls has to pony up $5 million. Not sure what the reason all these corporations want to by my house when the market is ready to collapse. No idea what they want to offer cause I won't let them past the fact that I want millions for it. 

Really focked with today's caller. Had to be from India. Kept telling him, "cmon put up or shut up, the price is $4 million and its worth $10 million easy."

Sean Mooney FF Geek

Sean Mooney

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6 hours ago, KSB2424 said:

It’s coming, no doubt.  My company is already planning for it. 

Yes...and many economists in summer of 2020 were saying it would almost inevitably happen. It's been a perfect storm for a few years (even pre-COVID) to get here and stuff in the past years have increased it. Anyone who says it is Trump or Biden's fault solely are being dopey. It is a combination of things- some outside of people's control- that led to it. 

JustinCharge FF Geek

JustinCharge

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8 hours ago, lod001 said:

The # of cold calls wanting to buy my house has ramped up significantly over the past month. I was asking $2 million but now its $ million and the next guy that calls has to pony up $5 million. Not sure what the reason all these corporations want to by my house when the market is ready to collapse. No idea what they want to offer cause I won't let them past the fact that I want millions for it. 

Really focked with today's caller. Had to be from India. Kept telling him, "cmon put up or shut up, the price is $4 million and its worth $10 million easy."

housing can do extremely well in a high inflation environment.

  • 1 year later...

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