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The Football Guru

Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Jameson Williams, Lions

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Team Fit: The Lions believe they have their alpha in Amon-Ra St. Brown. They added DJ Chark in free agency, and now they get a receiver who should become one of the league's most feared deep threats very quickly. Chark does not present a huge obstacle long-term (he signed a one-year deal), but it will be incredibly hard for him to be anything more than the third option behind St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson. Being tied to Jared Goff isn't going to help him either, meaning the rookie will struggle to be fantasy-relevant in 2022.

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31 minutes ago, Donkey said:

Lol that St. Brown is the alpha over Williams.

well, you cant always count on WR to be a stud on day one.  it may take a season or two.    it may take 3 games.    hard to say at this point.

bottom line is they dont have to play him if hes not doing all the things he needs to do.    They can afford to sit him if they need to get him up to speed.   and this is a prudent way to approach the situation.   get those bad habits out of his game before letting him start.   cuz once he starts putting up numbers, he may start thinking hes developed his game enough. (it happens a lot)

either way, only time will tell.   All I have to say is last year at this time it looked like the only guy Goff had to throw to was Hock.   Now he has 3 legit WR's along with Hock.

I do expect Goff will have a better season.    How much better?   I cannot say.   but I think the Lions offense has a chance to be at least reasonably decent.

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2 hours ago, Donkey said:

Lol that St. Brown is the alpha over Williams.

Two problems here:

1) you're assuming he will be everything he is hyped up to be right away after tearing his ACL

AND

2) Williams wasn't even the No. 1 at Alabama this year (Metchie was either 1A or 1B at worst). Was Williams more productive (yards and TDs)? Yeah. But Metchie was who Bryce Young tended to lean on when it mattered.

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Jameson can run a 4.2.  He has the best stop-go move there is.  There is not a DB who can cover him once he gets off the line.  He is NFL ready and a far bigger weapon than anyone on the Lions.  He is Tyreek Hill good, but only faster.  

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On 4/29/2022 at 12:01 AM, Ray_T said:

well, you cant always count on WR to be a stud on day one.  it may take a season or two.    it may take 3 games.    hard to say at this point.

 

That used to be true.  Today teams are working young WR's into their schemes quicker.  Jameson is a kid who you do everything possible to get the ball into his hands.  

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1 hour ago, jonmx said:

That used to be true.  Today teams are working young WR's into their schemes quicker.  Jameson is a kid who you do everything possible to get the ball into his hands.  

true.  and it used to take 2-3 years for a WR to be productive.

Now it takes less than a year for most of your top prospects. but it can still take some time depending on a number of things:

1) the system they played in-how similar is it to a pro style NFL system.  if similar, adjustment time is smaller.   if different the adjustment time is larger.

2) related to #1, what kind of routes was the WR asked to run in college?    if its mostly screens and go routes, then some pro coaching is needed to get the player on board with other types of plays.

3) was the receiver asked to block?   often in college its not a big part of the job description, but most NFL coaches demand that they do this.   if they dont have this in the toolbox, once again it can take a while to get up to speed.

That said, more and more receivers are pro ready on draft day.  most of those go in round 1.  but some high skill high upside players who dont have the route running or the system knowledge have a longer transition.

also, some coaches will force a player to earn their playing time.   That can take up to a half season just to get into the starting lineup (depending on the coach and the players willingness to work hard to get where he needs to be)

like I said, It could take up to two years, or it could take 2-3 games.  occasionally they are ready in time for week 1.

Dont get me wrong, I really like the guy, but even your top rookies usually have a rough first half of the season even if they start right away.   So I think its maybe expecting too much if you feel hes gonna be productive day one.   Thats all I'm saying.

I fully agree, hes a great prospect and a great pick.   I'm just not betting on high productivity on day one.

 

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If his head is ready, he’ll be a starter soon.  

Ive said it before,I’m not much of a Chark fan.  

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you may be right Weepaws.  he may be a starter soon.

but hes also coming off of an ACL surgery too.   for me between learning a new offense, learning how to play as a pro and learning to trust the knee post surgery, I think its better to plan for him to arrive in the second half of his rookie year or the following year.

There seems to be a lot of barriers preventing him from lighting it up week 1.

Not saying it cant be done.  I'm just saying the odds are against him.   

 

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Lol young guys seem to be able to return quickly. 

I don think he’ll be the guy week one, but as the season goes his amazing speed will be a problem for defenders. 

Should open up the middle more for St Brown imo.  

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3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Lol young guys seem to be able to return quickly. 

I don think he’ll be the guy week one, but as the season goes his amazing speed will be a problem for defenders. 

Should open up the middle more for St Brown imo.  

yeah, once healthy his presence will certainly make a difference.

I know you dont care much for Chark but hes got significant speed too and can make contested catches too.   

I think hes enough of a threat that St Brown should get some benefit from his presence too.

 

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I think Charks 40 time was 4.34.   pretty fast.

 

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Folks, let's remember Goff is not exactly a great deep-ball thrower. We've got a team in Detroit here that wants to bite off kneecaps too. Maybe ARSB falls behind Williams before the end of the year, but I wouldn't bet on it happening quickly. Then there is Hockenson and Swift, who will soak up plenty of targets as well.

In short, I don't see Williams becoming Jaylen Waddle 2.0 as a rookie (from a fantasy perspective).

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11 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

I don't see Williams becoming Jaylen Waddle 2.0 as a rookie (from a fantasy perspective)

Agreed.  for this to happen, everything would need to go right.

Hes already behind the eightball because hes recovering from an ACL injury. 

This doesnt help.    I still think hes a great pick.  I just think we need to temper our expectations in year 1.

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25 minutes ago, The Football Guru said:

Folks, let's remember Goff is not exactly a great deep-ball thrower. We've got a team in Detroit here that wants to bite off kneecaps too. Maybe ARSB falls behind Williams before the end of the year, but I wouldn't bet on it happening quickly. Then there is Hockenson and Swift, who will soak up plenty of targets as well.

In short, I don't see Williams becoming Jaylen Waddle 2.0 as a rookie (from a fantasy perspective).

Nope I don’t see Waddle , but I think as the ff season rolls along he could be become a good bench guy.  

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13 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Nope I don’t see Waddle , but I think as the ff season rolls along he could be become a good bench guy.  

for sure.

probably a great waiver wire pick a couple weeks into the year.  or a nice late round draft and hold if you can afford the dead roster spot until such time as he becomes productive

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On 5/2/2022 at 4:15 PM, Ray_T said:

I think Charks 40 time was 4.34.   pretty fast.

 

Which puts him a step behind Jameson.  

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4 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

This offense could be elite with a good QB.

Seems to be a theme in the nfl

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2 hours ago, makindollaz said:

This offense could be elite with a good QB.

I dunno, Goff was productive in LA despite his being turfed there in favour of Stafford.

then he came to a team that had no recognizable players as WR1 or WR2.

he made a connection with one young man who developed into a legit WR.  Now in the offseason they added another one via the draft and signed Chark.

I cant help but think Goff is gonna have a decent year as a starter.   Hes not necessarily someone you draft in a 1 qb league but in 2 QB or superflex format, hes potentially a steal relative to the price you'd pay to get him.

There is value there in that format.

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3 hours ago, makindollaz said:

This offense could be elite with a good QB.

Elite isn’t what Goff is.  

31 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I dunno, Goff was productive in LA despite his being turfed there in favour of Stafford.

then he came to a team that had no recognizable players as WR1 or WR2.

he made a connection with one young man who developed into a legit WR.  Now in the offseason they added another one via the draft and signed Chark.

I cant help but think Goff is gonna have a decent year as a starter.   Hes not necessarily someone you draft in a 1 qb league but in 2 QB or superflex format, hes potentially a steal relative to the price you'd pay to get him.

There is value there in that format.

Decent season is what Goff was last season, so you see much of the same from him this season.  He’s far from an elite Qb.   

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Elite isn’t what Goff is.  

Decent season is what Goff was last season, so you see much of the same from him this season.  He’s far from an elite Qb.   

The same?  Lol.  Goff had one TE to throw to the first half of the season and one WR to throw to the second half of the season.  Now the Lions are vastly improved at WR and even upgraded their 2nd TE and it is all the same?  Jameson Williams alone is like adding a Tyreek Hill type weapon and that is just one of three vastly upgraded targets.  Amon-ra and Hockenson saw double teams much of their time last season.  Once Jameson steps on to the field, that ain't happening ever.  

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24 minutes ago, jonmx said:

The same?  Lol.  Goff had one TE to throw to the first half of the season and one WR to throw to the second half of the season.  Now the Lions are vastly improved at WR and even upgraded their 2nd TE and it is all the same?  Jameson Williams alone is like adding a Tyreek Hill type weapon and that is just one of three vastly upgraded targets.  Amon-ra and Hockenson saw double teams much of their time last season.  Once Jameson steps on to the field, that ain't happening ever.  

I’m glad you agree with me.  But please he’s not an Elite Qb right?

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1 minute ago, weepaws said:

He does have upgrades from what he had to work with last season, no doubt. Now mr homer chimed in with this info, in which I agree with. So Goff should have a better season then 17 points per game he had last season. So let me ask you, how many points per game do you mr homer think he’ll Goff will avg. I also said Goff is not an Elite Qb , do you agree?  Can wait for your return. Calm down Francis. 

 Thanks. 

This person said they can’t help but think Goff will have a decent season as a starter, I said he had one last, so you expect the same from him this season? 

Expecting the same is obscene logic.  That is the issue I had and you wandered back to that ridiculous assertion.  No Goff is not elite, but in the right offense with the right weapons, he can easily put up 20 plus points a game.  

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Just now, jonmx said:

Expecting the same is obscene logic.  That is the issue I had and you wandered back to that ridiculous assertion.  No Goff is not elite, but in the right offense with the right weapons, he can easily put up 20 plus points a game.  

So you and I agree again. 

Thanks. 

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21 minutes ago, jonmx said:

Jameson Williams alone is like adding a Tyreek Hill type weapon

ok I agree with the rest of this post, but its a bit early to be comparing this kid to Hill.   Hill is a one of a kind weapon.   and the kid hasnt proven himself (yet) to even be a competent pro.

not saying he wont be, but I think the expectations you are heaping on the kid is a bit unreasonable.

Lets just say hes likely to help the offense and leave it there.   if you think hes gonna have a Tyreek hill type season then you likely need to project Goff for at least 4000 yards.   I dont see anyone here making that prediction.  Not saying its impossible, but you also have to look at overall numbers projected across the offense as a whole.  

either way all I'm saying is it may be in your best interest to temper your expectations just a little. 

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He is a T Hill type , doesn’t mean he’ll produce like T Hill in the NFL, but he is the same type of wr.  

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Just now, weepaws said:

He is a T Hill type , doesn’t mean he’ll produce like T Hill in the NFL, but he is the same type of wr.  

sorry maybe I got carried away.   but when comparing a kid who hasnt taken a snap as a pro to what may be the best WR of our generation, it felt like it was a bit much and maybe I overreacted a bit.

 

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3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

sorry maybe I got carried away.   but when comparing a kid who hasnt taken a snap as a pro to what may be the best WR of our generation, it felt like it was a bit much and maybe I overreacted a bit.

 

No mr homer is overreacting.  He feels likes his team isn’t getting enough respect lol 🧐🎉

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Just now, weepaws said:

No mr homer is overreacting.  He feels likes his team isn’t getting enough respect lol 🧐🎉

well, they WILL be better on offense than last year.   but they are still not a playoff team.

dude needs to remember Rome wasnt built in a day and neither are winning football teams.  its a process.    This offseason will get them going in the right direction but they need another good offseason and good draft next year too before we will see real progress.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

sorry maybe I got carried away.   but when comparing a kid who hasnt taken a snap as a pro to what may be the best WR of our generation, it felt like it was a bit much and maybe I overreacted a bit.

 

What Jameson did against Geogia was a lot like what Tyreek did against Buffalo.  Georgia may be a college team, but half that defense was just drafted in the first round.  Jameson has the skill set (Aaron Rogers called him the most pro-ready receiver in the draft) and is probably even a bit quicker than Tyreek.  The only thing that would stop Jameson from being all-pro is injury.  

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3 minutes ago, jonmx said:

The only thing that would stop Jameson from being all-pro is injury.  

Or being on the Lions. That could stop anyone from being All-Pro.

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4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, they WILL be better on offense than last year.   but they are still not a playoff team.

dude needs to remember Rome wasnt built in a day and neither are winning football teams.  its a process.    This offseason will get them going in the right direction but they need another good offseason and good draft next year too before we will see real progress.

 

 

The Lions offense is built.  The offensive line is stacked.  Running backs are top 10.  WR and TE are stacked.  Goff is good enough to produce with these weapons.  The only thing holding the Lions back is the defense and that should be headed in the right direction but still have holes at LB and secondary.  Cincinnati built Rome in a year last season.  Not that the Lions will pull that off, but their offense will be close.  

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I agree Goff will produce reasonably well.    but I still think it may be a year until our star rookie is ready to have a big year.

Cinci had a fair number of pieces in place when they drafted their QB.   Mixon was already a star......either way, even Tyreek Hill wasnt productive until year 2 of his career.  so its not out of line to think this could be the case here......usually when you draft players, you plan for them to not be productive until year 2 or 3 except in rare cases.   if it happens sooner, you consider it a bonus.

nothing wrong with loving your team, but you need to be reasonable in your expectations.  Thats all. 

one of the big things in fantasy football is knowing where your biases are and taking steps to make sure your biases dont ruin your fantasy drafts. 

I think we all know where your bias is.    

either way good luck.  if we are wrong and detroit (and their rookie WR)  has a monster year, you can come back here and roast us all for being wrong.  I'll be the first to send you kudos for being bold enough to predict it.

Not saying it wont happen.  I just dont think its the most likely outcome.

 

 

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52 minutes ago, jonmx said:

The Lions offense is built.  The offensive line is stacked.  Running backs are top 10.  WR and TE are stacked.  Goff is good enough to produce with these weapons.  The only thing holding the Lions back is the defense and that should be headed in the right direction but still have holes at LB and secondary.  Cincinnati built Rome in a year last season.  Not that the Lions will pull that off, but their offense will be close.  

Agreed. 

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59 minutes ago, jonmx said:

What Jameson did against Geogia was a lot like what Tyreek did against Buffalo.  Georgia may be a college team, but half that defense was just drafted in the first round.  Jameson has the skill set (Aaron Rogers called him the most pro-ready receiver in the draft) and is probably even a bit quicker than Tyreek.  The only thing that would stop Jameson from being all-pro is injury.  

He’s a T Hill type, but let’s see what happens.  

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58 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Or being on the Lions. That could stop anyone from being All-Pro.

Didn’t stop Barry Sanders or H Moore.  So not anyone.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Didn’t stop Barry Sanders or H Moore.  So not anyone.  

Didn’t say that, stop making up nonsense. 

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yeah we gotta keep discussion to the present day.   what happened a generation ago really isnt relevant.

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