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Instant Fantasy Analysis - WR Jameson Williams, Lions

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On 5/2/2022 at 2:51 PM, weepaws said:

Nope I don’t see Waddle , but I think as the ff season rolls along he could be become a good bench guy.  

This is what I think will take place,  once Williams can return, and starts to feel comfortable from his injury he’s going to be a player to bench going into the late season, and hopefully into the playoffs.  

Thank. 

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On 5/7/2022 at 5:57 PM, Ray_T said:

I dunno, Goff was productive in LA despite his being turfed there in favour of Stafford.

then he came to a team that had no recognizable players as WR1 or WR2.

he made a connection with one young man who developed into a legit WR.  Now in the offseason they added another one via the draft and signed Chark.

I cant help but think Goff is gonna have a decent year as a starter.   Hes not necessarily someone you draft in a 1 qb league but in 2 QB or superflex format, hes potentially a steal relative to the price you'd pay to get him.

There is value there in that format.

Goff is a QB who you can get for nothing, but will put up QB1 numbers this year.  Look at last year, Ragnow missed 13 games, Decker missed 8 games, Sewell was a Rookie who was banged up playing a new position and did not excell until late.  Their WR were complete trash until they got Josh Reynolds and St-Brown stepping up late.  Both Swift and Jamaal Williams missed significant time.  Hockenson missed a half-dozen games.  His O-Line was severely degraded and he only had 1 or 2 useful weapons at any given time, with 4 trash options filling up space.  

This season should change to the point 4500 yards is very reasonable:

1.  Easiest schedule with maximum rest between games.

2.  Three all-pro caliber O-linemen who should be healthy finally.

3.  Finally a legitimate WR#1 in DJ Chark.  

4.  An insanely fast and talented WR #2 who will demand double coverage in Jameson Williams.

5.  Amon-Ra being full-time from the start and ready to excell, with Josh Reynolds providing a legit 4th WR. 

6.  A Healthy Swift and Williams coming out of the backfield.

7.  A healthy TJ Hockinson. 

8.  Goff has zero competition.  I mean nobody.

Now sure, a couple of those could fall to injuries again, but it would be freaky if it was anything like last season.  Plus they have some depth at all those positions this season.  IMHO, Goff is the best value in the draft.  Lions could easily have a top 10 offense.  

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 1. Chark isn’t a legitimate wr1. 

2. Hockensen is healthy now, give him two games. 

3  Goff would need to avg about five more points per game to be a legitimate qb1 in ff, I think that’s a possibility   

He’s going to make for a very good double digit round Qb   

 

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4 hours ago, jonmx said:

Goff is a QB who you can get for nothing, but will put up QB1 numbers this year.

QB1 is pushing it a bit.

hes a QB2 who may put up a couple games where he has QB1 output.

hes still playing on a team that needs improvement in a lot of areas.  sure they have drafted and signed some guys, but those moves dont always work out right away.  The players need to learn to play together as a team.  sometimes it takes some time and sometimes the new player turns out not to be a fit for whatever reason.

sure he has that upside if EVERYTHING comes up aces but you cant bet on that.

in standard leagues hes QB2 with a little upside if the opponent has a weaker D.  possibly a flex play some weeks if the team performs better than expected.

for me, I'm targetting him as my QB3 in my 2 QB/superflex league if I can get him for a reasonable price (and I suspect I can)

I wouldnt bet on him being a QB1.  Not this year at least.   That said, if you draft him as your QB2/3 and he gives you QB1 numbers, thats a really nice pick.

what I would bet on is that his second half will probably be better than the first half of his season.    First half with all the new players may be a little rough until they all get on the same page.  Sometimes that process happens a couple games, sometimes 3-5 games, sometimes half a season.   but it usually does happen. 

Even when Brady went to Tampa, his first half season was kinda Meh.  but he picked it up and got better as the season wore on.   he was even better in year 2 statistically (not better otherwise as he didnt win a superbowl) but you get the idea.   it takes time to learn to play with new players. and the more new players you add the longer it takes to get the offense running the way its supposed to.

just food for your thoughts.

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

QB1 is pushing it a bit.

hes a QB2 who may put up a couple games where he has QB1 output.

hes still playing on a team that needs improvement in a lot of areas.  sure they have drafted and signed some guys, but those moves dont always work out right away.  The players need to learn to play together as a team.  sometimes it takes some time and sometimes the new player turns out not to be a fit for whatever reason.

sure he has that upside if EVERYTHING comes up aces but you cant bet on that.

in standard leagues hes QB2 with a little upside if the opponent has a weaker D.  possibly a flex play some weeks if the team performs better than expected.

for me, I'm targetting him as my QB3 in my 2 QB/superflex league if I can get him for a reasonable price (and I suspect I can)

I wouldnt bet on him being a QB1.  Not this year at least.   That said, if you draft him as your QB2/3 and he gives you QB1 numbers, thats a really nice pick.

what I would bet on is that his second half will probably be better than the first half of his season.    First half with all the new players may be a little rough until they all get on the same page.  Sometimes that process happens a couple games, sometimes 3-5 games, sometimes half a season.   but it usually does happen. 

Even when Brady went to Tampa, his first half season was kinda Meh.  but he picked it up and got better as the season wore on.   he was even better in year 2 statistically (not better otherwise as he didnt win a superbowl) but you get the idea.   it takes time to learn to play with new players. and the more new players you add the longer it takes to get the offense running the way its supposed to.

just food for your thoughts.

I disagree. 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I disagree. 

so be it.   I dont see him as a top 12 QB this year.   it sounds like you do.

It wouldnt surprise me if he had a slow start and was one of the top 12 in the second half of the season.   My thought is there are enough new people on the offense that it will take them some time to learn to play well together.   This is normal.   a QB doesnt typically develop chemistry with new players overnight.   some of your elite QBs might if the WR talent is also elite.

I think Chark is good, but not great.  I also think Goff is good but not Great.

Williams is a rookie and coming back from ACL surgery.   not ideal.  he probably also has a reasonable second half of the season but the first half... I wouldnt expect much.  especially the first 2-3 games.

it will happen, just not right away.  I'd recommend you grab a second QB in case Goff doesnt work out for you as your starter coming out of the gate.  first few games he may not do what you hope he will do.   a reasonable backup plan is never a bad thing in a case like this.   

either way, in a standard 12 team league where you start only one QB you are getting Goff for free.   the only cost is likely a roster spot.   so drafting another QB likely doesnt hurt you either.

 

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21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

so be it.   I dont see him as a top 12 QB this year.   it sounds like you do.

It wouldnt surprise me if he had a slow start and was one of the top 12 in the second half of the season.   My thought is there are enough new people on the offense that it will take them some time to learn to play well together.   This is normal.   a QB doesnt typically develop chemistry with new players overnight.   some of your elite QBs might if the WR talent is also elite.

I think Chark is good, but not great.  I also think Goff is good but not Great.

Williams is a rookie and coming back from ACL surgery.   not ideal.  he probably also has a reasonable second half of the season but the first half... I wouldnt expect much.  especially the first 2-3 games.

it will happen, just not right away.  I'd recommend you grab a second QB in case Goff doesnt work out for you as your starter coming out of the gate.  first few games he may not do what you hope he will do.   a reasonable backup plan is never a bad thing in a case like this.   

either way, in a standard 12 team league where you start only one QB you are getting Goff for free.   the only cost is likely a roster spot.   so drafting another QB likely doesnt hurt you either.

 

I think he has a shot to be a qb1, but he’s no qb3.  And I understand you where talking about a two Qb league, I think hel be in the top 24 for sure. He was last season just barely based on avg, and Goff had a lot less to work with last season.  

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4 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think he has a shot to be a qb1, but he’s no qb3.  And I understand you where talking about a two Qb league, I think hel be in the top 24 for sure. He was last season just barely based on avg, and Goff had a lot less to work with last season.  

I never said he was a QB3.  I said he'd be a QB3 on my team in my 2 QB league.

This is because my #1 QB is Herbert and my #2 QB is Cousins.   hes not better than either of them so that makes him a QB3 on my team (assuming I get him at the auction for a reasonable price)

most people who dont have this level of depth at the position would target him as a mid range QB2.  due to his poor statistical season you probably can get him for the price of a low end QB2.  possibly even the price of a QB3.  thus, I am targeting him to be my QB3.   I won my league last year so I get less money at auction than all the other teams.  as such, hes probably the most reliable QB3 I can afford.  

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further to my last post, I looked at my post and it was probably not as clear as it could have been, thus leading to a misunderstanding on your part.  I apologize for not being more clear.  I trust my most recent post cleared things up.

I'm drafting him at auction hopefully as my QB3 because most people think thats his value.  I'm happy to take the QB2 upside even if I have to pay a little more than a typical QB3.

I most definitely consider him a QB2 but why pay the QB2 price if you can get him for the price of a QB3.  save the auction dollars for more depth elsewhere in the lineup

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I’m glad we agree, he’s at least a qb2.  

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People are sleeping on how insanely good Jameson Williams is.  He is a faster version of Tyreek Hill.  And BTW, don't be shocked if he plays a couple series in preseason.  He will be game ready by week #1.  Don't wait until the first game he torches someone for 75 yards to realize this guy is unstoppable once he gets his hands on the ball in the open field. 

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6 hours ago, jonmx said:

  He is a faster version of Tyreek Hill. 

Based on what? Neither ran in the combine, but Hill recorded a 4.29 at his pro day. Williams didn't run because of his injury but is listed at 4.39, a full tenth slower. You are full of crap...

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10 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Based on what? Neither ran in the combine, but Hill recorded a 4.29 at his pro day. Williams didn't run because of his injury but is listed at 4.39, a full tenth slower. You are full of crap...

I read a report somewhere stating he was a bit faster than that.  like 4.34 or something of the like.   I will see if I can find the article.

but usually the timed speed goes down a bit after a big injury like an ACL.   at least for the first year of his comeback.

hes still fast.   but hes no Tyreek Hill.   I'm not buying that.    

 

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49 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Based on what? Neither ran in the combine, but Hill recorded a 4.29 at his pro day. Williams didn't run because of his injury but is listed at 4.39, a full tenth slower. You are full of crap...

lol...watch film buddy.  Jameson outran every CB and Safety he went up against.  On a 94-yard TD catch against Miami, Jameson was clock at over 23 mph, which is faster than any NFL player recorded in 2021.  Jameson ran that 4.39 speed in High School.  Jameson has gone up against plenty of 4.4 corners, and nobody has ever run Jameson down from behind.  Jameson separates from everyone, and these are elite corners playing in the SEC.  Bryce Young will through deep balls to Jameson when he is seemingly covered up by a saftey and a corner running a bit ahead of him, but by the time the ball hits him in stride he has step  on them and goes untouched into the endzone.  You watch films of Jameson running and these elite safeties have easy angles on him, but Jameson still leaves them in the dust.  4.39 speed my ass.  He is closer to 4.20 speed.

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23 minutes ago, jonmx said:

lol...watch film buddy.  Jameson outran every CB and Safety he went up against.  On a 94-yard TD catch against Miami, Jameson was clock at over 23 mph, which is faster than any NFL player recorded in 2021.  Jameson ran that 4.39 speed in High School.  Jameson has gone up against plenty of 4.4 corners, and nobody has ever run Jameson down from behind.  Jameson separates from everyone, and these are elite corners playing in the SEC.  Bryce Young will through deep balls to Jameson when he is seemingly covered up by a saftey and a corner running a bit ahead of him, but by the time the ball hits him in stride he has step  on them and goes untouched into the endzone.  You watch films of Jameson running and these elite safeties have easy angles on him, but Jameson still leaves them in the dust.  4.39 speed my ass.  He is closer to 4.20 speed.

The eye test doesn’t work for 40 times. Hill was recorded at 4.29, Williams at 4.39. That is the evidence available. Keep the fanboy fantasies coming though. At least they are amusing…

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12 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The eye test doesn’t work for 40 times. Hill was recorded at 4.29, Williams at 4.39. That is the evidence available. Keep the fanboy fantasies coming though. At least they are amusing…

yeah, compare a kids high school time with the time of Hill at his peak.  GTFO

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8 minutes ago, jonmx said:

yeah, compare a kids high school time with the time of Hill at his peak.  GTFO

If you have additional empirical evidence please share. But I’m a Lions fan therefore Williams is faster, doesn’t rise to the standard of evidence needed…

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

If you have additional empirical evidence please share. But I’m a Lions fan therefore Williams is faster, doesn’t rise to the standard of evidence needed…

There is film and clock speed.  When a guy clearly outruns every other player on the field, he is clearly much faster than a 4.4 runner.  Data that says he ran a 4.9 in grade school is stupid.

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the speed is one thing, but until he proves he can beat press coverage, hes no Tyreek Hill.  Lets not pretend he is.

that was one of the main deficiencies in his game and the reason he wasnt a high first round pick.

dude is small, and likely needs to put a few pounds on his frame before he has a reasonable chance to beat the jam most nfl DBs will use on him at the next level.

hes tall enough to add some weight to make that happen but you dont put on that kind of weight in one offseason without losing your speed.  it needs to happen a bit slowly.

for that reason I think he could be up to 2 years away from really lighting it up.

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Just now, Ray_T said:

the speed is one thing, but until he proves he can beat press coverage, hes no Tyreek Hill.  Lets not pretend he is.

that was one of the main deficiencies in his game and the reason he wasnt a high first round pick.

dude is small, and likely needs to put a few pounds on his frame before he has a reasonable chance to beat the jam most nfl DBs will use on him at the next level.

hes tall enough to add some weight to make that happen but you dont put on that kind of weight in one offseason without losing your speed.  it needs to happen a bit slowly.

for that reason I think he could be up to 2 years away from really lighting it up.

 

He was pick 12 with a ACL tear.....He is the #1 WR on nearly every board before his injury.  Yes, they will be able to slow Jamo down by pressing him.  But if he jukes and shakes you, you are toast.  Tyreek is only 185 lbs., and he beats the press by being elusive.  Watch Jameson run, very elusive.

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Just now, jonmx said:

 

He was pick 12 with a ACL tear.....He is the #1 WR on nearly every board before his injury.  Yes, they will be able to slow Jamo down by pressing him.  But if he jukes and shakes you, you are toast.  Tyreek is only 185 lbs., and he beats the press by being elusive.  Watch Jameson run, very elusive.

the scouting report said he struggled at the college level against press coverage.    that situation wont improve when he jumps to the pros.

he will need to get physically stronger or more elusive.   not saying he cant become a tyreek Hill but based on what I read in the scouting report he has some growing to do in that regard.

for most players like this it takes a couple years to adjust to the pro game.   Even Tyreek didnt light it up in year 1.  he had to learn this too.

I do think he will be a player... eventually.  I just dont think its happening this year.

we are probably looking at next year for a breakout.  possibly the year after.   I  could be wrong, but I dont think I am.   

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3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

the scouting report said he struggled at the college level against press coverage.    that situation wont improve when he jumps to the pros.

he will need to get physically stronger or more elusive.   not saying he cant become a tyreek Hill but based on what I read in the scouting report he has some growing to do in that regard.

for most players like this it takes a couple years to adjust to the pro game.   Even Tyreek didnt light it up in year 1.  he had to learn this too.

I do think he will be a player... eventually.  I just dont think its happening this year.

we are probably looking at next year for a breakout.  possibly the year after.   I  could be wrong, but I dont think I am.   

Tyreek struggled with press coverage when he first came into the league, but now he is one of the best against it.

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Just now, jonmx said:

Tyreek struggled with press coverage when he first came into the league, but now he is one of the best against it.

that is my point.

your guy will likely have the same struggles in year 1.  he has the added handicap of coming back from an ACL tear.

its not reasonable to expect big things from him in his rookie year.

My guess is you dont see anything significant until year 2.  possibly year 3.

its not an unreasonable thing to expect.

for the record, I'm not saying hes a crappy player.  I think hes a top prospect.  I do think your expectations of him in year 1 are not reasonable.

and for every player like him that adjusts and learns to beat the jam there is one who doesnt.   we have no good way to predict who will succeed and who wont or for that matter how long it will take them to learn what it takes to adjust their game to make themselves effective players.

some players adjust quickly some dont, but I have generally found, when a player has added responsibilities (in this case physio and rehab of  the injury) that process of adjusting quite often takes longer.

thats just life.   and its not an unrealistic expectation.

the only player I've ever seen come back from an ACL this quickly and be effective is ADP.  arguably he was a sick talent and a physical freak.   most players it takes a full year and a half to 2 years to get to that point.

can it happen?  sure.     is it likely?  no.  not in year 1.

Thats all I'm saying.

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On 5/27/2022 at 1:10 PM, Ray_T said:

 

its not reasonable to expect big things from him in his rookie year.

 

 

I am not making an arguement for his year one production.  I think he is medically OK to play week one, but that does not mean the Lions don't play it cautious and make him wait a full 8-month recovery time.  But with his skill set and speed, he is a type a player who can have a big year one impact.  When you move up aggressively to get a player, it is because you have plans to use him.  His talent level and potential is that of a DeSean Jackson or Tyreek Hill.   

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2 minutes ago, jonmx said:

I am not making an arguement for his year one production.

 

2 minutes ago, jonmx said:

But with his skill set and speed, he is a type a player who can have a big year one impact.  When you move up aggressively to get a player, it is because you have plans to use him.

To arrive at a contradiction is to confess an error in one's thinking...

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2 hours ago, jrokh said:

 

To arrive at a contradiction is to confess an error in one's thinking...

Having plans to use him year one is not even close to making a projection as being a year one stud.  Once he suits up and is ready, he will be in the starting lineup and they will find creative ways to get him the ball.  That does not mean he is going to be a 1200 yd, 12 TD guy year one.  But those are the numbers he will be hitting year 2 and beyond.  

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I have taken him in both of my dynasty's that have had the rookie draft already, just as a warning. Usually when i stack players across all my leagues they bust :lol:

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3 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

I have taken him in both of my dynasty's that have had the rookie draft already, just as a warning. Usually when i stack players across all my leagues they bust :lol:

Damn you!  Can you drop him in at least one of your leagues?  

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On 5/29/2022 at 6:15 PM, jonmx said:

Having plans to use him year one is not even close to making a projection as being a year one stud.  Once he suits up and is ready, he will be in the starting lineup and they will find creative ways to get him the ball.  That does not mean he is going to be a 1200 yd, 12 TD guy year one.  But those are the numbers he will be hitting year 2 and beyond.  

no.  in year 1 i think they will start him in situations where they need to strech the field.

generally the first thing to return after ACL surgery is the straight line speed.    The ability to make a cut or a double move comes a bit later, so when he first starts, they will likely have lots of Go routes for him and crossing routes.

as his ability to cut comes back they will expand his route tree.

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21 hours ago, Ray_T said:

no.  in year 1 i think they will start him in situations where they need to strech the field.

generally the first thing to return after ACL surgery is the straight line speed.    The ability to make a cut or a double move comes a bit later, so when he first starts, they will likely have lots of Go routes for him and crossing routes.

as his ability to cut comes back they will expand his route tree.

I am all for taking their time and getting him 100 percent.  This year they are a fringe team who may be competing for a wild card.    Next year when they add a fee more pieces in the draft, start to use that cap space in free agency, and these kids start developing into stud NFL players will the Lions be a scary good team.  

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5 minutes ago, jonmx said:

  Next year when they add a fee more pieces in the draft, start to use that cap space in free agency, and these kids start developing into stud NFL players will the Lions be a scary good team.  

Thanks, I really needed a good long laugh, and you provided it. Scary good team, LMFAO....

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3 hours ago, jrokh said:

Thanks, I really needed a good long laugh, and you provided it. Scary good team, LMFAO....

You laughter will not age well....I absolutely guarantee that. 

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13 hours ago, jonmx said:

I am all for taking their time and getting him 100 percent.  This year they are a fringe team who may be competing for a wild card.    Next year when they add a fee more pieces in the draft, start to use that cap space in free agency, and these kids start developing into stud NFL players will the Lions be a scary good team.  

Detroit is definitely going in the right direction. 

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5 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Detroit is definitely going in the right direction. 

they appear to be.

provided the players we think will be good actually turn out that way.    you cant predict the unpredictable.  maybe player A has a drug problem or an undiagnosed and untreated health condition   or he has an injury in camp that prevents him from being what he should be.

sometimes the team can do everything right and make no mistakes and still lose.   it happens.

but the road to recovery usually starts with a good draft year.

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If the lions keep going in the direction they are taking, division winners in 2023.  

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11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

If the lions keep going in the direction they are taking, division winners in 2023.  

Too early to say for sure.

One good draft isnt usually enough for a full turnaround.

if they can follow this one with another one next year then I would say for sure they may be headed that direction

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If Goff is the QB maybe they win a weak division eventually, but they won’t go anywhere with him. 

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13 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Too early to say for sure.

One good draft isnt usually enough for a full turnaround.

if they can follow this one with another one next year then I would say for sure they may be headed that direction

Agreed.  

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13 hours ago, jrokh said:

If Goff is the QB maybe they win a weak division eventually, but they won’t go anywhere with him. 

Agreed , this is I think will be the case, weak division 

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22 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Too early to say for sure.

One good draft isnt usually enough for a full turnaround.

if they can follow this one with another one next year then I would say for sure they may be headed that direction

I think they are already on the road to significant improvement. 

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