wolves111 69 Posted May 5, 2022 I've been in an FF league since 1994. Usually drafting early (1,2,3) is ideal. Lately it seems that drafting in the backend of the first round works out better. In four of my leagues last season the teams drafting early didn't win the league. Now, injuries played a major part for sure but there seems to have been a shift since the passing game rules elevated WR's and T/E's. Has anyone done research yet on this season regarding early rankings and draft pick position? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 5, 2022 1 hour ago, wolves111 said: Now, injuries played a major part for sure but there seems to have been a shift since the passing game rules elevated WR's and T/E's. It's also aided by the CBA. Ever since players asked for a significantly reduced amount of practices in pads during the off-season, there's been a lot more in-season injuries than before. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 5, 2022 It's the same as every season, the ideal spot is first, then you can draft anyone you want Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, polecatt said: It's the same as every season, the ideal spot is first, then you can draft anyone you want How many people think there's a stone cold lock at #1? I don't think there is. I mean, if we had to pick, we'd probably come up with a reasonable 3 or 4 guys consensus... but I don't necessarily think the guy you get at #1 is all that much better (or safer an option), than the guy you can get at 10. The kicker with #10 is that there's only 4 picks before your next pick and not 23. I'd rather have #10 & #15 than #1 & #24. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said: How many people think there's a stone cold lock at #1? I don't think there is. I mean, if we had to pick, we'd probably come up with a reasonable 3 or 4 guys consensus... but I don't necessarily think the guy you get at #1 is all that much better (or safer an option), than the guy you can get at 10. The kicker with #10 is that there's only 4 picks before your next pick and not 23. I'd rather have #10 & #15 than #1 & #24. I'm not saying there is a lock for the #1 pick. I'm saying the thing that is true every single year. That is, the #1 pick is the only selection where you can 100% take the player you want. That's the ideal situation IMO. Anything past that and others do a good bit of your choosing for you. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 585 Posted May 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said: How many people think there's a stone cold lock at #1? this is key. the question is probably too general as who is #1 and by how much will vary based on the rules you play. I personally dont like drafting in the #1 slot. I prefer to draft in the middle like around 4-8. at that draft slot there is always some people on either side who will miss a player that should be taken and that player falls to you. picking on the end.... you have two back to back picks. you can get one steal at any point in a draft but two? harder task to achieve. but if you are drafting out of the #4 slot there is usually a fair chance that one of the consensus top 3 players falls to you and then you can draft ahead of those guys when the draft comes back. I know this is all personal preference and likely means nothing. but thats how I look at it. usually slot 4 or 5 is the sweet spot in most drafts because you are still getting an elite talent with your first pick. and the gap between your first and second picks isnt so huge. that said, everyone has a preference. in the end, if you do your homework where you pick shouldnt matter THAT much. you should still be able to get some quality players no matter what. we all talk about draft strategy but the strategy often needs to change based on what other people pick. if there is one true advantage to picking early it is that your early pick can affect the strategy that others behind you take. if you can figure that out, you can also predict how the draft will go (which gives you another advantage) but nothing you do can replace the value of hard work of research and prep time for your draft. There are no shortcuts. reading fantasy mags and fftoday will help you up to a point. but going the extra step to find out why a player performed (or didnt perform) last season can sometimes give you an advantage in figuring out if a player will repeat last years season or if they are likely to bounce back. stats will only tell you so much. whats important is understanding the stats and the reason those stats were above or below what that player has done in the past last year. thats not something you often find in a fantasy football mag. they may do one article on one player they think will have a bounceback season. Two players if you are lucky. but the problem is, when that info is published everyone else knows what you know too. I find good information on the boards and in discussions on players. lots of times the guys on here bring up points about a player I never really considered before and I adjust my expectations as a result of the new info. so you will find sometimes I will play the devils advocate on an issue to see if I can get more information out on a given player. more info is almost always better (provided the info is accurate) so its nice to know what people think. anyhow good luck. I've rambled on far longer than I should have on this topic and maybe I've gotten sidetracked a bit. I hope you all dont mind too much. cheers Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TBayXXXVII 2,069 Posted May 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, polecatt said: Anything past that and others do a good bit of your choosing for you. I'm fine with that this year because I don't think there's 1 guy that I absolutely want. There's like 10 or 12 guys or so that I'm fine with. Just give me one and the earliest 2nd pick. To me, the 2nd round pick is more important because I think I can get 2 of those guys picking from 10 and I can't from picking at #1. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil Simms 11 127 Posted May 5, 2022 I usually like top 3, and next will be bottom 3 but this year could be different Here is Adp 1-2 = Taylor, Henry 3-8= Mixon, Ekeler, Najee, Kupp, Chub, Mcaffrey 9-12= Kamara, Jefferson, Adams, Chase 13 = Javonte I’m feeling top 4-5 looks nice this year https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 5, 2022 If I must pick early, I like the 3-4 slot, of I pick later I like the 10-12 slot, 1/2 point ppr 12 team. I don’t like the first two picks, and I can’t stand picking in the middle 5-9. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jrokh 567 Posted May 6, 2022 If you are in one of those leagues that chooses draft order i.e. the first position can choose any spot they want and the second position any spot except what the first person chose etc. Then I might say 11 is the best spot. Otherwise who really cares since it’s just randomly assigned anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted May 6, 2022 5 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said: 1-2 = Taylor, Henry It would be awfully tempting to go for the Exacta in an auction and get 40+ points per week every week from the RB position. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 6, 2022 6 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said: I usually like top 3, and next will be bottom 3 but this year could be different Here is Adp 1-2 = Taylor, Henry 3-8= Mixon, Ekeler, Najee, Kupp, Chub, Mcaffrey 9-12= Kamara, Jefferson, Adams, Chase 13 = Javonte I’m feeling top 4-5 looks nice this year https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr The only RB I would take in the 1st round is Taylor Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolves111 69 Posted May 6, 2022 13 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said: I usually like top 3, and next will be bottom 3 but this year could be different Here is Adp 1-2 = Taylor, Henry 3-8= Mixon, Ekeler, Najee, Kupp, Chub, Mcaffrey 9-12= Kamara, Jefferson, Adams, Chase 13 = Javonte I’m feeling top 4-5 looks nice this year https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr Kamara is a real question mark at this point. Will he be suspended and if so for how long? Javonte back to rbbc with Gordon. I had him last season and it was really frustrating. As of now for me he's a #3 rb. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 585 Posted May 6, 2022 4 hours ago, wolves111 said: Kamara is a real question mark at this point. Will he be suspended and if so for how long? Javonte back to rbbc with Gordon. I had him last season and it was really frustrating. As of now for me he's a #3 rb. agree about Kamara. Javonte I think was a low end RB2 last year in his timeshare. He was an RB3 in the first half when he was learning the offense, but he definitely was an RB2 in the second half..... and the second half is what I expect would be the best estimate of what hes gonna do this year. (maybe he will do a bit better this year) though I am wondering if those numbers Mr. Simms posted were actual ADP's or his estimates of the ADP's. like you said, if a pending suspension is there for Kamara he shouldnt have a top 12 ADP for RB's. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 6, 2022 J Williams in 1/2 point ppr scores 35 more points in the second half did he did in the first half, he scored 27 1/2 ppr in week 13, am that was his biggest ff performance, also so happens to be the only game M Gordon missed. If you at his avg per game 1/2 ppr and compare to how other Rbs finished last season, solely based on avg he’s a low rb2 with Gordon around , so I would say low rb2 - high rb3. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil Simms 11 127 Posted May 7, 2022 18 hours ago, Ray_T said: agree about Kamara. Javonte I think was a low end RB2 last year in his timeshare. He was an RB3 in the first half when he was learning the offense, but he definitely was an RB2 in the second half..... and the second half is what I expect would be the best estimate of what hes gonna do this year. (maybe he will do a bit better this year) though I am wondering if those numbers Mr. Simms posted were actual ADP's or his estimates of the ADP's. like you said, if a pending suspension is there for Kamara he shouldnt have a top 12 ADP for RB's. That’s the ADP from FFcalculator, I put the link in my post. It’s 0.5 PPR Adp Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 7, 2022 On 5/6/2022 at 6:52 AM, wolves111 said: Kamara is a real question mark at this point. Will he be suspended and if so for how long? Javonte back to rbbc with Gordon. I had him last season and it was really frustrating. As of now for me he's a #3 rb. As concerning about Kamara as his legal issues are, perhaps even more so, his decline/team. He just doesn't get the same action in the passing game when Drew Brees isn't the QB. That's where most of his value comes from. That and the TDs he typically scores. Last season, he was down a bit in both areas. That and his 3.7 ypc isn't a good sign. I just don't see how all of that is gonna get better this season Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil Simms 11 127 Posted May 7, 2022 Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr Here are the first 3 rounds # Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std. Dev High Low Times Drafted Graph 1 1.01 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 14 1.2 0.4 1.01 1.03 172 2 1.02 Dalvin Cook RB MIN 7 2.3 0.8 1.01 1.03 12 3 1.03 Derrick Henry RB TEN 13 2.6 0.8 1.01 1.05 88 4 1.04 Joe Mixon RB CIN 10 4.1 1.1 1.01 1.07 49 5 1.04 Austin Ekeler RB LAC 7 4.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 114 6 1.06 Najee Harris RB PIT 7 5.6 1.6 1.01 1.10 112 7 1.06 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 11 5.8 2.0 1.01 1.10 172 8 1.08 Nick Chubb RB CLE 13 7.6 2.0 1.04 2.01 55 9 1.09 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR 13 9.1 2.8 1.02 2.05 194 10 1.09 Alvin Kamara RB NO 6 9.1 2.0 1.04 2.02 65 11 1.09 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 7 9.4 2.1 1.01 2.02 133 12 1.12 Davante Adams WR LV 8 11.8 2.5 1.03 2.05 113 13 1.12 Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN 10 12.2 3.4 1.01 2.08 280 14 1.12 Javonte Williams RB DEN 11 12.5 2.5 1.02 2.05 83 15 2.03 Travis Kelce TE KC 12 14.7 2.8 1.06 2.08 142 16 2.03 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 9 15.2 2.2 1.10 2.08 16 17 2.05 Deebo Samuel WR SF 6 16.5 2.6 1.05 2.10 97 18 2.06 Josh Allen QB BUF 7 17.5 3.4 1.07 2.12 42 19 2.06 Tyreek Hill WR MIA 14 18.1 2.8 2.01 2.12 70 20 2.07 Stefon Diggs WR BUF 7 18.9 2.7 1.11 3.03 207 21 2.07 D'Andre Swift RB DET 9 19.2 3.4 1.09 3.03 206 22 2.09 Mark Andrews TE BAL 8 21.0 3.6 1.12 3.03 63 23 2.11 David Montgomery RB CHI 10 22.6 3.2 2.01 3.06 69 24 2.11 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 7 23.0 3.3 1.11 3.09 192 25 2.11 A.J. Brown WR PHI 14 23.2 2.6 2.04 3.06 84 26 3.01 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 7 24.6 3.7 2.02 3.10 63 27 3.03 Aaron Jones RB GB 13 27.3 4.2 1.12 4.01 288 28 3.04 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 9 27.7 3.1 2.09 3.10 22 29 3.04 DeAndre Hopkins WR ARI 12 27.8 3.5 1.10 3.12 94 30 3.05 Mike Evans WR TB 9 28.8 3.2 2.09 4.01 93 31 3.07 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 8 30.6 4.2 2.09 4.05 84 32 3.07 Keenan Allen WR LAC 7 30.7 3.0 2.10 4.01 121 33 3.08 George Kittle TE SF 6 31.7 4.9 2.04 4.06 71 34 3.08 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 12 32.5 4.7 2.01 4.05 73 35 3.09 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 6 33.0 4.4 2.06 4.08 188 36 3.11 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 7 34.8 3.9 2.11 4.07 56 37 3.11 Tee Higgins WR CIN 10 34.9 4.4 2.10 4.08 63 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil Simms 11 127 Posted May 7, 2022 I am not liking Kamara in the first round. Unless he drops into mid-second I won't be owning shares. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolves111 69 Posted May 7, 2022 34 minutes ago, polecatt said: As concerning about Kamara as his legal issues are, perhaps even more so, his decline/team. He just doesn't get the same action in the passing game when Drew Brees isn't the QB. That's where most of his value comes from. That and the TDs he typically scores. Last season, he was down a bit in both areas. That and his 3.7 ypc isn't a good sign. I just don't see how all of that is gonna get better this season Yeah, good points. With Brees gone the entire offense is affected. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said: Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr Here are the first 3 rounds # Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std. Dev High Low Times Drafted Graph 1 1.01 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 14 1.2 0.4 1.01 1.03 172 2 1.02 Dalvin Cook RB MIN 7 2.3 0.8 1.01 1.03 12 3 1.03 Derrick Henry RB TEN 13 2.6 0.8 1.01 1.05 88 4 1.04 Joe Mixon RB CIN 10 4.1 1.1 1.01 1.07 49 5 1.04 Austin Ekeler RB LAC 7 4.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 114 6 1.06 Najee Harris RB PIT 7 5.6 1.6 1.01 1.10 112 7 1.06 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 11 5.8 2.0 1.01 1.10 172 8 1.08 Nick Chubb RB CLE 13 7.6 2.0 1.04 2.01 55 9 1.09 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR 13 9.1 2.8 1.02 2.05 194 10 1.09 Alvin Kamara RB NO 6 9.1 2.0 1.04 2.02 65 11 1.09 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 7 9.4 2.1 1.01 2.02 133 12 1.12 Davante Adams WR LV 8 11.8 2.5 1.03 2.05 113 13 1.12 Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN 10 12.2 3.4 1.01 2.08 280 14 1.12 Javonte Williams RB DEN 11 12.5 2.5 1.02 2.05 83 15 2.03 Travis Kelce TE KC 12 14.7 2.8 1.06 2.08 142 16 2.03 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 9 15.2 2.2 1.10 2.08 16 17 2.05 Deebo Samuel WR SF 6 16.5 2.6 1.05 2.10 97 18 2.06 Josh Allen QB BUF 7 17.5 3.4 1.07 2.12 42 19 2.06 Tyreek Hill WR MIA 14 18.1 2.8 2.01 2.12 70 20 2.07 Stefon Diggs WR BUF 7 18.9 2.7 1.11 3.03 207 21 2.07 D'Andre Swift RB DET 9 19.2 3.4 1.09 3.03 206 22 2.09 Mark Andrews TE BAL 8 21.0 3.6 1.12 3.03 63 23 2.11 David Montgomery RB CHI 10 22.6 3.2 2.01 3.06 69 24 2.11 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 7 23.0 3.3 1.11 3.09 192 25 2.11 A.J. Brown WR PHI 14 23.2 2.6 2.04 3.06 84 26 3.01 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 7 24.6 3.7 2.02 3.10 63 27 3.03 Aaron Jones RB GB 13 27.3 4.2 1.12 4.01 288 28 3.04 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 9 27.7 3.1 2.09 3.10 22 29 3.04 DeAndre Hopkins WR ARI 12 27.8 3.5 1.10 3.12 94 30 3.05 Mike Evans WR TB 9 28.8 3.2 2.09 4.01 93 31 3.07 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 8 30.6 4.2 2.09 4.05 84 32 3.07 Keenan Allen WR LAC 7 30.7 3.0 2.10 4.01 121 33 3.08 George Kittle TE SF 6 31.7 4.9 2.04 4.06 71 34 3.08 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 12 32.5 4.7 2.01 4.05 73 35 3.09 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 6 33.0 4.4 2.06 4.08 188 36 3.11 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 7 34.8 3.9 2.11 4.07 56 37 3.11 Tee Higgins WR CIN 10 34.9 4.4 2.10 4.08 63 Don’t like N Harris inside the top 6. Adams in the first round really. J Williams shouldn’t be picked in a ppr ahead of Swift. I like Diggs, and Chase in the first round over Adams. A Jones early third round in a ppr is a steal. Not sold on Metcalf n the third with Lock at Qb. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 7, 2022 Last season the Saints we’re very limited at the Qb position, and at wr. This season they should have Thomas back they drafted a really good rookie wr, and Winston once passed for 5000 yards so they have an upgrade at Qb. Last season Kamara was still 5th in avg per game 1/2 point ppr. My only concern with Kamara is his off the field problems. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 397 Posted May 7, 2022 4 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said: Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though. https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr Here are the first 3 rounds # Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std. Dev High Low Times Drafted Graph 1 1.01 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 14 1.2 0.4 1.01 1.03 172 2 1.02 Dalvin Cook RB MIN 7 2.3 0.8 1.01 1.03 12 3 1.03 Derrick Henry RB TEN 13 2.6 0.8 1.01 1.05 88 4 1.04 Joe Mixon RB CIN 10 4.1 1.1 1.01 1.07 49 5 1.04 Austin Ekeler RB LAC 7 4.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 114 6 1.06 Najee Harris RB PIT 7 5.6 1.6 1.01 1.10 112 7 1.06 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 11 5.8 2.0 1.01 1.10 172 8 1.08 Nick Chubb RB CLE 13 7.6 2.0 1.04 2.01 55 9 1.09 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR 13 9.1 2.8 1.02 2.05 194 10 1.09 Alvin Kamara RB NO 6 9.1 2.0 1.04 2.02 65 11 1.09 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 7 9.4 2.1 1.01 2.02 133 12 1.12 Davante Adams WR LV 8 11.8 2.5 1.03 2.05 113 13 1.12 Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN 10 12.2 3.4 1.01 2.08 280 14 1.12 Javonte Williams RB DEN 11 12.5 2.5 1.02 2.05 83 15 2.03 Travis Kelce TE KC 12 14.7 2.8 1.06 2.08 142 16 2.03 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 9 15.2 2.2 1.10 2.08 16 17 2.05 Deebo Samuel WR SF 6 16.5 2.6 1.05 2.10 97 18 2.06 Josh Allen QB BUF 7 17.5 3.4 1.07 2.12 42 19 2.06 Tyreek Hill WR MIA 14 18.1 2.8 2.01 2.12 70 20 2.07 Stefon Diggs WR BUF 7 18.9 2.7 1.11 3.03 207 21 2.07 D'Andre Swift RB DET 9 19.2 3.4 1.09 3.03 206 22 2.09 Mark Andrews TE BAL 8 21.0 3.6 1.12 3.03 63 23 2.11 David Montgomery RB CHI 10 22.6 3.2 2.01 3.06 69 24 2.11 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 7 23.0 3.3 1.11 3.09 192 25 2.11 A.J. Brown WR PHI 14 23.2 2.6 2.04 3.06 84 26 3.01 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 7 24.6 3.7 2.02 3.10 63 27 3.03 Aaron Jones RB GB 13 27.3 4.2 1.12 4.01 288 28 3.04 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 9 27.7 3.1 2.09 3.10 22 29 3.04 DeAndre Hopkins WR ARI 12 27.8 3.5 1.10 3.12 94 30 3.05 Mike Evans WR TB 9 28.8 3.2 2.09 4.01 93 31 3.07 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 8 30.6 4.2 2.09 4.05 84 32 3.07 Keenan Allen WR LAC 7 30.7 3.0 2.10 4.01 121 33 3.08 George Kittle TE SF 6 31.7 4.9 2.04 4.06 71 34 3.08 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 12 32.5 4.7 2.01 4.05 73 35 3.09 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 6 33.0 4.4 2.06 4.08 188 36 3.11 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 7 34.8 3.9 2.11 4.07 56 37 3.11 Tee Higgins WR CIN 10 34.9 4.4 2.10 4.08 63 Taylor, I get, I also understand Derrick Henry, if you think he's gonna stay healthy somehow, but can somebody explain why those others are being drafted ahead of Cooper Kupp? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 7, 2022 And that’s a full ppr list. I think they must not believe that Kupp will be once again the top scoring wr. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ray_T 585 Posted May 7, 2022 6 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said: Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though. yeah, Cook should be on the list. it was probably an oversight. I've seen this happen before where a player gets missed. now that weve brought it to their attention I'm sure that will get fixed with the next update. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Showboat 142 Posted May 10, 2022 Hmmmm. Picking up Akers in the 4th round would be pretty good value. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,418 Posted May 10, 2022 What happen to M Williams? He’s not on that list. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites