Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
wolves111

Ideal Redraft Position This Year?

Recommended Posts

I've been in an FF league since 1994. Usually drafting early (1,2,3) is ideal. Lately it seems that drafting in the backend of the first round works out better. In four of my leagues last season the teams drafting early didn't win the league. Now, injuries played a major part for sure but there seems to have been a shift since the passing game rules elevated WR's and T/E's.

Has anyone done research yet on this season regarding early rankings and draft pick position? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

Now, injuries played a major part for sure but there seems to have been a shift since the passing game rules elevated WR's and T/E's.

It's also aided by the CBA.  Ever since players asked for a significantly reduced amount of practices in pads during the off-season, there's been a lot more in-season injuries than before.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's the same as every season, the ideal spot is first, then you can draft anyone you want

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, polecatt said:

It's the same as every season, the ideal spot is first, then you can draft anyone you want

How many people think there's a stone cold lock at #1?  I don't think there is.  I mean, if we had to pick, we'd probably come up with a reasonable 3 or 4 guys consensus... but I don't necessarily think the guy you get at #1 is all that much better (or safer an option), than the guy you can get at 10.  The kicker with #10 is that there's only 4 picks before your next pick and not 23.  I'd rather have #10 & #15 than #1 & #24.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

How many people think there's a stone cold lock at #1?  I don't think there is.  I mean, if we had to pick, we'd probably come up with a reasonable 3 or 4 guys consensus... but I don't necessarily think the guy you get at #1 is all that much better (or safer an option), than the guy you can get at 10.  The kicker with #10 is that there's only 4 picks before your next pick and not 23.  I'd rather have #10 & #15 than #1 & #24.

I'm not saying there is a lock for the #1 pick. I'm saying the thing that is true every single year.

That is, the #1 pick is the only selection where you can 100% take the player you want. That's the ideal situation IMO.

Anything past that and others do a good bit of your choosing for you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

How many people think there's a stone cold lock at #1?

:thumbsup:

this is key.

the question is probably too general as who is #1 and by how much will vary based on the rules you play.

I personally dont like drafting in the #1 slot.   I prefer to draft in the middle like around 4-8.

at that draft slot there is always some people on either side who will miss a player that should be taken and that player falls to you.

picking on the end.... you have two back to back picks.  you can get one steal at any point in a draft but two?  harder task to achieve.

but if you are drafting out of the #4 slot there is usually a fair chance that one of the consensus top 3 players falls to you and then you can draft ahead of those guys when the draft comes back.

I know this is all personal preference and likely means nothing.  but thats how I look at it.    usually slot 4 or 5 is the sweet spot in most drafts because you are still getting an elite talent with your first pick.    and the gap between your first and second picks isnt so huge.

that said, everyone has a preference.   in the end, if you do your homework where you pick shouldnt matter THAT much.  you should still be able to get some quality players no matter what.

we all talk about draft strategy but the strategy often needs to change based on what other people pick.   if there is one true advantage to picking early it is that your early pick can affect the strategy that others behind you take.   if you can figure that out, you can also predict how the draft will go (which gives you another advantage)

but nothing you do can replace the value of hard work of research and prep time for your draft.   There are no shortcuts.

reading fantasy mags and fftoday will help you up to a point.  but going the extra step to find out why a player performed (or didnt perform) last season can sometimes give you an advantage in figuring out if a player will repeat last years season or if they are likely to bounce back.

stats will only tell you so much.   whats important is understanding the stats and the reason those stats were above or below what that player has done in the past last year.

thats not something you often find in a fantasy football mag.   they may do one article on one player they think will have a bounceback season.  Two players if you are lucky.  but the problem is, when that info is published everyone else knows what you know too.

I find good information on the boards and in discussions on players.  lots of times the guys on here bring up points about a player I never really considered before and I adjust my expectations as a result of the new info.   so you will find sometimes I will play the devils advocate on an issue to see if I can get more information out on a given player.   more info is almost always better (provided the info is accurate) so its nice to know what people think.

 

anyhow good luck.  I've rambled on far longer than I should have on this topic and maybe I've gotten sidetracked a bit.  I hope you all dont mind too much.

cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Anything past that and others do a good bit of your choosing for you.

I'm fine with that this year because I don't think there's 1 guy that I absolutely want.  There's like 10 or 12 guys or so that I'm fine with.  Just give me one and the earliest 2nd pick.  To me, the 2nd round pick is more important because I think I can get 2 of those guys picking from 10 and I can't from picking at #1.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I must pick early, I like the 3-4 slot, of I pick later I like the 10-12 slot, 1/2 point ppr 12 team.  

I don’t like the first two picks, and I can’t stand picking in the middle 5-9.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you are in one of those leagues that chooses draft order i.e. the first position can choose any spot they want and the second position any spot except what the first person chose etc. Then I might say 11 is the best spot. Otherwise who really cares since it’s just randomly assigned anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

1-2 = Taylor, Henry

It would be awfully tempting to go for the Exacta in an auction and get 40+ points per week every week from the RB position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I usually like top 3, and next will be bottom 3 but this year could be different 

 

Here is Adp

1-2 = Taylor, Henry 

 

3-8= Mixon, Ekeler, Najee, Kupp, Chub, Mcaffrey

9-12= Kamara, Jefferson, Adams, Chase

13 = Javonte

I’m feeling top 4-5 looks nice this year


https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr

 

The only RB I would take in the 1st round is Taylor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I usually like top 3, and next will be bottom 3 but this year could be different 

 

Here is Adp

1-2 = Taylor, Henry 

 

3-8= Mixon, Ekeler, Najee, Kupp, Chub, Mcaffrey

9-12= Kamara, Jefferson, Adams, Chase

13 = Javonte

I’m feeling top 4-5 looks nice this year


https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr

 

Kamara is a real question mark at this point. Will he be suspended and if so for how long? Javonte back to rbbc with Gordon. I had him last season and it was really frustrating. As of now for me he's a #3 rb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Kamara is a real question mark at this point. Will he be suspended and if so for how long? Javonte back to rbbc with Gordon. I had him last season and it was really frustrating. As of now for me he's a #3 rb.

agree about Kamara.

Javonte I think was a low end RB2 last year in his timeshare. He was an RB3 in the first half when he was learning the offense, but he definitely was an RB2 in the second half..... and the second half is what I expect  would be the best estimate of what hes gonna do this year. (maybe he will do a bit better this year)

though I am wondering if those numbers Mr. Simms posted were actual ADP's or his estimates of the ADP's.   like you said, if a pending suspension is there for Kamara he shouldnt have  a top 12 ADP for RB's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

J Williams in 1/2 point ppr scores 35 more points in the second half did he did in the first half, he scored 27 1/2 ppr in week 13, am that was his biggest ff performance, also so happens to be the only game M Gordon missed.  

If you at his avg per game 1/2 ppr and compare to how other Rbs finished last season, solely based on avg he’s a low rb2 with Gordon around , so I would say low rb2 - high rb3.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Ray_T said:

agree about Kamara.

Javonte I think was a low end RB2 last year in his timeshare. He was an RB3 in the first half when he was learning the offense, but he definitely was an RB2 in the second half..... and the second half is what I expect  would be the best estimate of what hes gonna do this year. (maybe he will do a bit better this year)

though I am wondering if those numbers Mr. Simms posted were actual ADP's or his estimates of the ADP's.   like you said, if a pending suspension is there for Kamara he shouldnt have  a top 12 ADP for RB's.

That’s the ADP from FFcalculator, I put the link in my post. It’s 0.5 PPR Adp 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/6/2022 at 6:52 AM, wolves111 said:

Kamara is a real question mark at this point. Will he be suspended and if so for how long? Javonte back to rbbc with Gordon. I had him last season and it was really frustrating. As of now for me he's a #3 rb.

As concerning about Kamara as his legal issues are, perhaps even more so, his decline/team.

He just doesn't get the same action in the passing game when Drew Brees isn't the QB. That's where most of his value comes from.

That and the TDs he typically scores.

Last season, he was down a bit in both areas. That and his 3.7 ypc isn't a good sign.

I just don't see how all of that is gonna get better this season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though. 

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

 

Here are the first 3 rounds

# Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std.
Dev
High Low Times
Drafted
Graph
1 1.01 RB IND 14 1.2 0.4 1.01 1.03 172
2 1.02 RB MIN 7 2.3 0.8 1.01 1.03 12
3 1.03 RB TEN 13 2.6 0.8 1.01 1.05 88
4 1.04 RB CIN 10 4.1 1.1 1.01 1.07 49
5 1.04 RB LAC 7 4.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 114
6 1.06 RB PIT 7 5.6 1.6 1.01 1.10 112
7 1.06 WR LAR 11 5.8 2.0 1.01 1.10 172
8 1.08 RB CLE 13 7.6 2.0 1.04 2.01 55
9 1.09 RB CAR 13 9.1 2.8 1.02 2.05 194
10 1.09 RB NO 6 9.1 2.0 1.04 2.02 65
11 1.09 WR MIN 7 9.4 2.1 1.01 2.02 133
12 1.12 WR LV 8 11.8 2.5 1.03 2.05 113
13 1.12 WR CIN 10 12.2 3.4 1.01 2.08 280
14 1.12 RB DEN 11 12.5 2.5 1.02 2.05 83
15 2.03 TE KC 12 14.7 2.8 1.06 2.08 142
16 2.03 RB WAS 9 15.2 2.2 1.10 2.08 16
17 2.05 WR SF 6 16.5 2.6 1.05 2.10 97
18 2.06 QB BUF 7 17.5 3.4 1.07 2.12 42
19 2.06 WR MIA 14 18.1 2.8 2.01 2.12 70
20 2.07 WR BUF 7 18.9 2.7 1.11 3.03 207
21 2.07 RB DET 9 19.2 3.4 1.09 3.03 206
22 2.09 TE BAL 8 21.0 3.6 1.12 3.03 63
23 2.11 RB CHI 10 22.6 3.2 2.01 3.06 69
24 2.11 WR DAL 7 23.0 3.3 1.11 3.09 192
25 2.11 WR PHI 14 23.2 2.6 2.04 3.06 84
26 3.01 RB DAL 7 24.6 3.7 2.02 3.10 63
27 3.03 RB GB 13 27.3 4.2 1.12 4.01 288
28 3.04 WR SEA 9 27.7 3.1 2.09 3.10 22
29 3.04 WR ARI 12 27.8 3.5 1.10 3.12 94
30 3.05 WR TB 9 28.8 3.2 2.09 4.01 93
31 3.07 RB BAL 8 30.6 4.2 2.09 4.05 84
32 3.07 WR LAC 7 30.7 3.0 2.10 4.01 121
33 3.08 TE SF 6 31.7 4.9 2.04 4.06 71
34 3.08 QB KC 12 32.5 4.7 2.01 4.05 73
35 3.09 RB SF 6 33.0 4.4 2.06 4.08 188
36 3.11 WR PIT 7 34.8 3.9 2.11 4.07 56
37 3.11 WR CIN 10 34.9 4.4 2.10 4.08 63

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am not liking Kamara in the first round. Unless he drops into mid-second I won't be owning shares. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, polecatt said:

As concerning about Kamara as his legal issues are, perhaps even more so, his decline/team.

He just doesn't get the same action in the passing game when Drew Brees isn't the QB. That's where most of his value comes from.

That and the TDs he typically scores.

Last season, he was down a bit in both areas. That and his 3.7 ypc isn't a good sign.

I just don't see how all of that is gonna get better this season

Yeah, good points. With Brees gone the entire offense is affected. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though. 

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

 

Here are the first 3 rounds

# Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std.
Dev
High Low Times
Drafted
Graph
1 1.01 RB IND 14 1.2 0.4 1.01 1.03 172  
2 1.02 RB MIN 7 2.3 0.8 1.01 1.03 12  
3 1.03 RB TEN 13 2.6 0.8 1.01 1.05 88  
4 1.04 RB CIN 10 4.1 1.1 1.01 1.07 49  
5 1.04 RB LAC 7 4.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 114  
6 1.06 RB PIT 7 5.6 1.6 1.01 1.10 112  
7 1.06 WR LAR 11 5.8 2.0 1.01 1.10 172  
8 1.08 RB CLE 13 7.6 2.0 1.04 2.01 55  
9 1.09 RB CAR 13 9.1 2.8 1.02 2.05 194  
10 1.09 RB NO 6 9.1 2.0 1.04 2.02 65  
11 1.09 WR MIN 7 9.4 2.1 1.01 2.02 133  
12 1.12 WR LV 8 11.8 2.5 1.03 2.05 113  
13 1.12 WR CIN 10 12.2 3.4 1.01 2.08 280  
14 1.12 RB DEN 11 12.5 2.5 1.02 2.05 83  
15 2.03 TE KC 12 14.7 2.8 1.06 2.08 142  
16 2.03 RB WAS 9 15.2 2.2 1.10 2.08 16  
17 2.05 WR SF 6 16.5 2.6 1.05 2.10 97  
18 2.06 QB BUF 7 17.5 3.4 1.07 2.12 42  
19 2.06 WR MIA 14 18.1 2.8 2.01 2.12 70  
20 2.07 WR BUF 7 18.9 2.7 1.11 3.03 207  
21 2.07 RB DET 9 19.2 3.4 1.09 3.03 206  
22 2.09 TE BAL 8 21.0 3.6 1.12 3.03 63  
23 2.11 RB CHI 10 22.6 3.2 2.01 3.06 69  
24 2.11 WR DAL 7 23.0 3.3 1.11 3.09 192  
25 2.11 WR PHI 14 23.2 2.6 2.04 3.06 84  
26 3.01 RB DAL 7 24.6 3.7 2.02 3.10 63  
27 3.03 RB GB 13 27.3 4.2 1.12 4.01 288  
28 3.04 WR SEA 9 27.7 3.1 2.09 3.10 22  
29 3.04 WR ARI 12 27.8 3.5 1.10 3.12 94  
30 3.05 WR TB 9 28.8 3.2 2.09 4.01 93  
31 3.07 RB BAL 8 30.6 4.2 2.09 4.05 84  
32 3.07 WR LAC 7 30.7 3.0 2.10 4.01 121  
33 3.08 TE SF 6 31.7 4.9 2.04 4.06 71  
34 3.08 QB KC 12 32.5 4.7 2.01 4.05 73  
35 3.09 RB SF 6 33.0 4.4 2.06 4.08 188  
36 3.11 WR PIT 7 34.8 3.9 2.11 4.07 56  
37 3.11 WR CIN 10 34.9 4.4 2.10 4.08 63

Don’t like N Harris inside the top 6.  

Adams in the first round  really.  

J Williams shouldn’t be picked in a ppr ahead of Swift.  

I like Diggs, and Chase in the first round over Adams.  

A Jones early third round in a ppr is a steal.  

Not sold on Metcalf n the third with Lock at Qb.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last season the Saints we’re very limited at the Qb position, and at wr.  

This season they should have Thomas back they drafted a really good rookie wr, and Winston once passed for 5000 yards so they have an upgrade at Qb.  Last season Kamara was still 5th in avg per game 1/2 point ppr.  

My only concern with Kamara is his off the field problems.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though. 

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr

 

Here are the first 3 rounds

# Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std.
Dev
High Low Times
Drafted
Graph
1 1.01 RB IND 14 1.2 0.4 1.01 1.03 172  
2 1.02 RB MIN 7 2.3 0.8 1.01 1.03 12  
3 1.03 RB TEN 13 2.6 0.8 1.01 1.05 88  
4 1.04 RB CIN 10 4.1 1.1 1.01 1.07 49  
5 1.04 RB LAC 7 4.5 1.2 1.02 1.08 114  
6 1.06 RB PIT 7 5.6 1.6 1.01 1.10 112  
7 1.06 WR LAR 11 5.8 2.0 1.01 1.10 172  
8 1.08 RB CLE 13 7.6 2.0 1.04 2.01 55  
9 1.09 RB CAR 13 9.1 2.8 1.02 2.05 194  
10 1.09 RB NO 6 9.1 2.0 1.04 2.02 65  
11 1.09 WR MIN 7 9.4 2.1 1.01 2.02 133  
12 1.12 WR LV 8 11.8 2.5 1.03 2.05 113  
13 1.12 WR CIN 10 12.2 3.4 1.01 2.08 280  
14 1.12 RB DEN 11 12.5 2.5 1.02 2.05 83  
15 2.03 TE KC 12 14.7 2.8 1.06 2.08 142  
16 2.03 RB WAS 9 15.2 2.2 1.10 2.08 16  
17 2.05 WR SF 6 16.5 2.6 1.05 2.10 97  
18 2.06 QB BUF 7 17.5 3.4 1.07 2.12 42  
19 2.06 WR MIA 14 18.1 2.8 2.01 2.12 70  
20 2.07 WR BUF 7 18.9 2.7 1.11 3.03 207  
21 2.07 RB DET 9 19.2 3.4 1.09 3.03 206  
22 2.09 TE BAL 8 21.0 3.6 1.12 3.03 63  
23 2.11 RB CHI 10 22.6 3.2 2.01 3.06 69  
24 2.11 WR DAL 7 23.0 3.3 1.11 3.09 192  
25 2.11 WR PHI 14 23.2 2.6 2.04 3.06 84  
26 3.01 RB DAL 7 24.6 3.7 2.02 3.10 63  
27 3.03 RB GB 13 27.3 4.2 1.12 4.01 288  
28 3.04 WR SEA 9 27.7 3.1 2.09 3.10 22  
29 3.04 WR ARI 12 27.8 3.5 1.10 3.12 94  
30 3.05 WR TB 9 28.8 3.2 2.09 4.01 93  
31 3.07 RB BAL 8 30.6 4.2 2.09 4.05 84  
32 3.07 WR LAC 7 30.7 3.0 2.10 4.01 121  
33 3.08 TE SF 6 31.7 4.9 2.04 4.06 71  
34 3.08 QB KC 12 32.5 4.7 2.01 4.05 73  
35 3.09 RB SF 6 33.0 4.4 2.06 4.08 188  
36 3.11 WR PIT 7 34.8 3.9 2.11 4.07 56  
37 3.11 WR CIN 10 34.9 4.4 2.10 4.08 63

Taylor, I get, I also understand Derrick Henry, if you think he's gonna stay healthy somehow, but can somebody explain why those others are being drafted ahead of Cooper Kupp?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And that’s a full ppr list.  I think they must not believe that Kupp will be once again the top scoring wr.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Saw something strange in the FFCalculator - they don't have Dalvin Cook at all in Standard and half PPR. As in he isn't even drafted. They have him in the 1 pt PPR ADP though.

yeah, Cook should be on the list.

it was probably an oversight.   I've seen this happen before where a player gets missed.  now that weve brought it to their attention I'm sure that will get fixed with the next update.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What happen to M Williams? He’s not on that list.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×