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The S&P 500 is having its worst year so far in six decades.

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14 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

IMO the only real caveat to “a house is worth what someone is willing to pay” is a mortgage, because the bank has to agree to lend the money.

But if someone buys a house in cash, I think it’s pretty fair to say it’s worth at least pretty close to that much.  I’m sure there were some cases where 1 person paid way more than all the other offers, but I doubt that was the norm.

The flipper example isn’t really comparable IMO because someone else probably would have been willing to pay more had it been available to them.  

eh... the last crisis was largely in part to banks handing out loans to anyone and everyone. They did this because in many cases they were just repackaging those loans and pushing them off onto Fannie and Freddie. Even with tighter lending practices and a more watchful eye, I wouldn't put so much stock into a bank having to agree to lend. 

A lot of the time, cash offers are intended to get the sale done quicker and to get a better deal. Sometimes, sellers will take a lower offer if it's all cash. 

As for the flipper example, most of those contractors are making low, all cash offers on older homes that either need major renovations or will be leveled completely. Many of those homes are available to other people, but the average joe doesn't want to or know how to put in the work or do he renovations properly to come out ahead in value, even if their intention is not to sell right away.

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2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

eh... the last crisis was largely in part to banks handing out loans to anyone and everyone. They did this because in many cases they were just repackaging those loans and pushing them off onto Fannie and Freddie. Even with tighter lending practices and a more watchful eye, I wouldn't put so much stock into a bank having to agree to lend. 

A lot of the time, cash offers are intended to get the sale done quicker and to get a better deal. Sometimes, sellers will take a lower offer if it's all cash. 

As for the flipper example, most of those contractors are making low, all cash offers on older homes that either need major renovations or will be leveled completely. Many of those homes are available to other people, but the average joe doesn't want to or know how to put in the work or do he renovations properly to come out ahead in value, even if their intention is not to sell right away.

Don't forget this part in that, "we will give you a loan for 125% of the value of the (already overpriced) house. Go out and spend that 'free' $ we just gave you". This won't be a collapse like 2008 because that type of insanity is not going on. 

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15 minutes ago, Horseman said:

And interest rates are through the roof which makes the ultimate price (what people are willing to pay) that much higher.  That's driving down the sale price, the ultimate price I'd wager is staying about the same.  

That's the fatal flaw in Mooney's claim that sale prices are dropping to match what the house price is really worth.  

Agree.  For most people that aren’t as rich as you and can’t afford to buy in cash, home prices dropping isn’t going to save them much except on the down payment.

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14 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Link

 

so it wasn't even an original thought? :lol:

again, I agree. Appraisals do not take future prices into consideration. Why would they? They take current market data and recent sales. It's not like past homes sold data is coming from 10 years ago. 

again, you (or this article from marketwatch, lol) are talking about value of a home compared to its selling price. These are two different things. Maybe that's where our disconnect is. I have not refuted a single thing about a homes selling price being fair or unfair or too much or too little. When everyone was moving out of NYC and Hoboken during the pandemic and coming to the more spread out burbs, home prices went sky high. lots of bidding wars, complete sellers market. Buyers got what they wanted, doesn't mean they got a good deal or paid the right price for the property value.

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35 minutes ago, Strike said:

Of course it is.  WW is wrong too.  Using his example of a dream home, the fact that it's someone's dream home has a value associated with it.  That value is the amount they're willing to pay above what someone else would.  Whenever a house is sold there is one winning bidder.  By definition they've driven up the value of that home.  If they hadn't won then the next lower bid would have, assuming multiple bidders.  It's the same thing.  They valued that home more than the next highest bidder, therefore setting the value of that home.  Again, it's a simple concept that you're having trouble comprehending. 

If that were the only variable controlling housing prices you'd be right. 

It is not, thus you are wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Agree.  For most people that aren’t as rich as you and can’t afford to buy in cash, home prices dropping isn’t going to save them much except on the down payment.

30%, nearly a third paid in cash in 2021.

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5 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

eh... the last crisis was largely in part to banks handing out loans to anyone and everyone. They did this because in many cases they were just repackaging those loans and pushing them off onto Fannie and Freddie. Even with tighter lending practices and a more watchful eye, I wouldn't put so much stock into a bank having to agree to lend. 

A lot of the time, cash offers are intended to get the sale done quicker and to get a better deal. Sometimes, sellers will take a lower offer if it's all cash. 

As for the flipper example, most of those contractors are making low, all cash offers on older homes that either need major renovations or will be leveled completely. Many of those homes are available to other people, but the average joe doesn't want to or know how to put in the work or do he renovations properly to come out ahead in value, even if their intention is not to sell right away.

I don’t disagree that it’s not hard to get a loan, just pointing out that it’s not really the homebuyer’s money, so they’re not really the ones paying for the house directly.

Yes, sellers often take less in a cash offer compared to a loan.  But when the market was hot that was usually still higher than past comparables.

Disagree with your last paragraph.  Many people were putting POS houses on the MLS the past couple years and while they may have been ultimately bought by flippers, they were usually paying market value (which of course would be less than comparable homes in better condition).  It’s the ones that people buy off market that I’d consider not really available to everyone else.

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3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

30%, nearly a third paid in cash in 2021.

1) that’s not most, so glad we agree

2) I’m sure even that number is heavily driven by things like foreigners buying in big cities, empty nesters/retirees selling and downsizing, and Wall Street companies buying SFH’s to turn into rentals.  I’d be curious to see the number of Americans under 65 or so that pay in cash.

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19 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

so it wasn't even an original thought? :lol:

again, I agree. Appraisals do not take future prices into consideration. Why would they? They take current market data and recent sales. It's not like past homes sold data is coming from 10 years ago. 

again, you (or this article from marketwatch, lol) are talking about value of a home compared to its selling price. These are two different things. Maybe that's where our disconnect is. I have not refuted a single thing about a homes selling price being fair or unfair or too much or too little. When everyone was moving out of NYC and Hoboken during the pandemic and coming to the more spread out burbs, home prices went sky high. lots of bidding wars, complete sellers market. Buyers got what they wanted, doesn't mean they got a good deal or paid a fair price for the property value.

You want some random thought rather than genuine information for a professional that is the editor of MyMortgageInsider who has appeared on time.com, realtor.com and others? Wow man, usually people ask for links from experts to back up claims and now you're trying to make fun of them.  Funny you thought I pulled it out of my asss though instead of something I had read.  Is that how you do it?  Personally I'd leave the "original thought" posting to the regular crew in here that sound like morons if I were you.

The only other thing I will say is you are starting to be illogical.  Did you just say you have to get a good deal, subjective, for it to be reflective of the home's true value?  :wacko:

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3 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Biden doesn't set the interest rate tardo

No, his policies drove inflation through the roof that sent the economy spinning and forced the feds to raise the interest rate.  See the big picture much?

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12 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

1) that’s not most, so glad we agree

2) I’m sure even that number is heavily driven by things like foreigners buying in big cities, empty nesters/retirees selling and downsizing, and Wall Street companies buying SFH’s to turn into rentals.  I’d be curious to see the number of Americans under 65 or so that pay in cash.

If you're being honest you were trying to make is sound like a very small percentage.  

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19 minutes ago, Horseman said:

No, his policies drove inflation through the roof that sent the economy spinning and forced the feds to raise the interest rate.  See the big picture much?

It's "fed", as in federal reserve, not the feds.  And the free money that started this lies with Trump as well.

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18 minutes ago, Horseman said:

If you're being honest you were trying to make is sound like a very small percentage.  

I said most. 70% is most, thanks

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6 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

It's "fed", as in federal reserve, not the feds.  And the free money that started this lies with Trump as well.

Nice try. 

The first covid relief bill under Trump was approved bipartisan, almost unanimously.

The second covid relief bill under Biden was the exact opposite and the Repubs warned him it would lead to inflation.

Those are just the facts.  I've probably pointed this out a dozen times which either speaks to the intelligence of you libs or how well the sell job is doing in the media.

 

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3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I said most. 70% is most, thanks

Right, you don't want to be honest.  Three out of ten pay in cash and that probably rubs you the wrong way for some reason.  

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Just now, Horseman said:

Nice try. 

The first covid relief bill under Trump was approve bipartisan, almost unanimously.

The second covid relief bill under Biden was the exact opposite and the Repubs warned him it would lead to inflation.

Those are just the facts.  I've probably pointed this out a dozen times which either speaks to the intelligence of you libs or how well the sell job is doing in the media.

 

And it really doesn't matter.  If I shoot someone and everyone approves me to shoot someone, it's still my fault they died.  You're just making a lame excuse.

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1 hour ago, Horseman said:

* They are misspelling triggered.  ;)

Message boards are a prefect example because how people type and write is really the only thing you have to judge intelligence.

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Just now, Shooter McGavin said:

And it really doesn't matter.  If I shoot someone and everyone approves me to shoot someone, it's still my fault they died.  You're just making a lame excuse.

People vote to allow people to murder in GutterPedoLowIQ's alternate reality.

This is another perfect post illustrating why no one should put any weight into anything you have to say.  

:lol:  Can you imagine?  Bipartisan, almost unanimous legislation passed by house and congress during the pandemic for pandemic relief gets vetoed by Trump.   

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3 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Message boards are a prefect example because how people type and write is really the only thing you have to judge intelligence.

🤣

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1 minute ago, Horseman said:

:lol:  Can you imagine?  Bipartisan, almost unanimous legislation passed by house and congress during the pandemic for pandemic relief gets vetoed by Trump.   

Smart people would have applauded, including me.  You continue to slurp his nuts because you can't think for yourself.

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29 minutes ago, Horseman said:

You want some random thought rather than genuine information for a professional that is the editor of MyMortgageInsider who has appeared on time.com, realtor.com and others? Wow man, usually people ask for links from experts to back up claims and now you're trying to make fun of them.  Funny you thought I pulled it out of my asss though instead of something I had read.  Is that how you do it?  Personally I'd leave the "original thought" posting to the regular crew in here that sound like morons if I were you.

The only other thing I will say is you are starting to be illogical.  Did you just say you have to get a good deal, subjective, for it to be reflective of the home's true value?  :wacko:

Oh snap... the editor of MyMortgageInsider? :lol:

Yes I thought you pulled a quick example out of your ass. No, i'm not usually one of those posters who asks for links to facts because much of what is discussed in this forum is opinion, or at least subjects where people can have differing opinions. I also know that a LOT of people try to act like the smartest person in the room with no basis for merit. So, I guess thanks for linking that article you got your idea from. I disagree with the "industry expert" about using gasoline as a comparison. :dunno: His credentials do not change my feeling about that poor example. 

 

Also not what I said. I guess that's how you interpreted it. The bottom line is you can overpay for a property. It may be a good deal for you because it's the property you wanted and you didn't mind overpaying for it (this would fall in line with the "something is worth what someone is willing to pay" argument) but it does not mean you got a good deal relative to the properties actual value. People purchase properties all the time and if for some random reason they were to list it for sale a week later, find out they are not recovering their investment. 

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2 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

Message boards are a prefect example because how people type and write is really the only thing you have to judge intelligence.

Here comes the reading dummy.  The message conveyed by writing.  

How people type.  🤣  I'm sure you're a one finger guy.  

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2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Here comes the reading dummy.  The message conveyed by writing.  

How people type.  🤣  I'm sure you're a one finger guy.  

It's your own words you focking idiot :lol:

 

 

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Just now, WhiteWonder said:

Oh snap... the editor of MyMortgageInsider? :lol:

Yes I thought you pulled a quick example out of your ass. No, i'm not usually one of those posters who asks for links to facts because much of what is discussed in this forum is opinion, or at least subjects where people can have differing opinions. I also know that a LOT of people try to act like the smartest person in the room with no basis for merit. So, I guess thanks for linking that article you got your idea from. I disagree with the "industry expert" about using gasoline as a comparison. :dunno: His credentials do not change my feeling about that poor example. 

 

Also not what I said. I guess that's how you interpreted it. The bottom line is you can overpay for a property. It may be a good deal for you because it's the property you wanted and you didn't mind overpaying for it (this would fall in line with the "something is worth what someone is willing to pay" argument) but it does not mean you got a good deal relative to the properties actual value. People purchase properties all the time and if for some random reason they were to list it for sale a week later, find out they are not recovering their investment. 

Opinions based on facts.

I'm guessing Tim Lucas > than WW when it comes to this topic.  But, it's just a guess.  I'll keep reading what people that have a voice in the industry have to say if that's ok.

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5 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

It's your own words you focking idiot :lol:

 

 

You can't read and entire sentence, let alone an entire paragraph and understand the message being conveyed.  It's quite amazing.  It's "type and write". The "and" is important here, it's not either or.

Thanks for yet another good example. Just like mortgage AND sh!t job AND car payment. You're an illiterate dummy.  

 

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Just now, Horseman said:

You can't read and entire sentence, let alone an entire paragraph and understand the message being conveyed.  It's quite amazing.  It's "type and write". The "and" is important here, it's not either or.

Thanks for yet another good example. Just like mortgage AND sh!t job AND car payment. You're an illiterate dummy.  

 

BACKPEDAL

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11 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Opinions based on facts.

I'm guessing Tim Lucas > than WW when it comes to this topic.  But, it's just a guess.  I'll keep reading what people that have a voice in the industry have to say if that's ok.

If only I knew someone with a voice in the industry. ;)

I've never heard of Tim Lucas and you probably hadn't either before you stumbled on that article, considering you copied and pasted the blurb about his credentials at the bottom of the article.  I would hope his overall knowledge > WW. Doesn't mean a "industry" expert in any field can't use a poor example to make his point. sheesh.

But I'm going to let you kiddies keep going at it. You're on my :thumbsup: list because you're pretty chill with the edex and FF and stuff but it's hilarious how the 6-7 of you honks can't help but go after each other in every thread, political or non. 

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1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

If only I knew someone with a voice in the industry. ;)

I've never heard of Tim Lucas and you probably hadn't either before you stumbled on that article.  I would hope his overall knowledge > WW. Doesn't mean a "industry" expert in any field can't use a poor example to make his point. sheesh.

But I'm going to let you kiddies keep going at it. You're on my :thumbsup: list because you're pretty chill with the edex and FF and stuff but it's hilarious how the 6-7 of you honks can't help but go after each other in every thread, political or non. 

If you think it's hilarious have you been laughing at yourself the past couple of hours?  :thumbsup:

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Just now, Horseman said:

If you think it's hilarious have you been laughing at yourself the past couple of hours?  :thumbsup:

actually, yes. I generally chime in because I think a topic is interesting and I enjoy debate on a variety of subjects but sometimes if I catch myself getting caught up in the slap fights, I do laugh at myself. Although in this instance I think I've mostly avoided the childish stuff.

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Random thoughts: 
Interest rates are only ‘through the roof’ if you look at the past 10 years. If you go back further, 6% for a 30 year fixed is still historically low. 
When I bought my home in 1994, a 30 year fixed was at 9%. Funny thing is, the economy was doing fine, the markets were doing fine, unemployment was low, etc. I realize that was a long time ago, but what's different today ? What is it about today's US economy where a 30 year fixed at 6% (33% less than 1994) convinces some people that it's the end of the world ? 

No blame for the federal reserve ? There was a time when they’d address inflation ‘before’ it became a huge issue.

Japan started this long-term move towards ultra low interest rates back in the late 80s. How did that work out ? 
The Nikkei average (the Japanese equivalent of our DJIA) peaked at around 38K in 1990. 32 years later it's at 27K

Government spending/debt. Democrats vs Republicans. I'll leave the debate ‘who is more responsible for debt reaching 1 trillion for the first time in 1980 & reaching 30 trillion today’ to others. I will say this, if debt compounds at that same rate over the next 42 years, it will be around 900 trillion by 2064. If you think that's bad, realize that the $30 trillion debt figure thrown around, isn't accurate. Count the unfunded liabilities from Social Security and Medicare, and it's closer to 100 trillion.

“US housing recession could send home prices tumbling 20%, economist says”
It won't be popular, but my guess is that in certain parts of the country, a 20% drop would mean they're probably still overpriced by 20%.
Is it any wonder there's been an absolutely insatiable demand for low income/affordable housing over the past 10 years ?
You know who pays for that.

Something else to think about. (Hypothetically) Donald Trump is still president.
If he sponsored legislation to give singles & couples with outstanding student loan debt, making up to 125K & 250K, a $10,000 break/giveaway, Democrats across the country would call it a giveaway to the rich.

This country is messed up.

Lastly, is anyone buying today ?

I just added shares of Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK) & Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL)

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3 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

 What is it about today's US economy where a 30 year fixed at 6% (33% less than 1994) convinces some people that it's the end of the world ? 

9% inflation plus energy and gas prices that come along with it. 

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Here is the bottom line when it comes to politics of this.  Everyone is pissed off, or should be.  The economy is completely messed up.  It went from correction, to recession to everyone hoping it's a "mild" depression.  Republicans know exactly who to blame for this, rightfully so.  Democrats only have TDS or they put their fingers in their ears shouting nah nah nah.

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3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

9% inflation plus energy and gas prices that come along with it. 

Right. Maybe if the Fed had reacted sooner, it wouldn't have gotten to this point. 

Quote

No blame for the federal reserve ? There was a time when they’d address inflation ‘before’ it became a huge issue.

 

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1 hour ago, Horseman said:

Right, you don't want to be honest.  Three out of ten pay in cash and that probably rubs you the wrong way for some reason.  

Actually thanks for calling attention to my comment.  I actually said most “people” aren’t paying cash.  At the end of 2021 18% of homebuyers weren’t actually people, they were businesses (most of which pay cash).  Making my point even more true, thanks again buddy.

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1 hour ago, Horseman said:

Nice try. 

The first covid relief bill under Trump was approved bipartisan, almost unanimously.

The second covid relief bill under Biden was the exact opposite and the Repubs warned him it would lead to inflation.

Those are just the facts.  I've probably pointed this out a dozen times which either speaks to the intelligence of you libs or how well the sell job is doing in the media.

 

Great post. Gutterboy is oblivious. 

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9 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Actually thanks for calling attention to my comment.  I actually said most “people” aren’t paying cash.  At the end of 2021 18% of homebuyers weren’t actually people, they were businesses.  Making my point even more true, thanks again buddy.

Right, you need every bit of "even more true" that you can get because you were not being honest.  You wanted to portray it as a very small number when in reality more people are buying in cash than ever before. 

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20 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Right, you need every bit of "even more true" that you can get because you were not being honest.  You wanted to portray it as a very small number when in reality more people are buying in cash than ever before. 

Jesus Christ and you people think I like to nitpick? I was agreeing with most of your prior post and made a simple comment saying “most people can’t pay cash for houses.”  It was a true statement, now stfu

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4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Jesus Christ and you people think I like to nitpick? I was agreeing with most of your prior post and made a simple comment saying “most people can’t pay cash for houses.”  It was a true statement, now stfu

Nope.  You started with this

3 hours ago, TimHauck said:

 With housing it’s a little tricky since not everyone is paying in cash (and if you don’t you’re an idiot according to horsecrap)

Which I'm still waiting for a link for.  

Don't you even remember what you post?

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