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Housing bubble 2.0? Regional housing markets are beginning to look like they did in 2007

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43 minutes ago, MDC said:

I’d have thought it would be much higher. My monthly payment on a significantly smaller (2,000 sf) home in Philly is more.

I bought my house in 2011 for 249 (50k down)  Refi'd to 2.5% rates during covid on a 20 year fixed.  I live in a semi rural area (house now worth 650-700k)

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2 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

I bought my house in 2011 for 249 (50k down)  Refi'd to 2.5% rates during covid on a 20 year fixed.  I live in a semi rural area (house now worth 650-700k)

Got it. Are you in Bernardino?

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24 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Riverside Co. between San Bernardino and Palm Springs. San Bernardino co in about a 15 min drive 

Got it, just curious. :thumbsup: 

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3 hours ago, Reality said:

This place is such a drain on you people's soul. Is this fun for y'all? Miserable focks, all of you.

Fock, I hate to agree with Reality :( 

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3 hours ago, Reality said:

This place is such a drain on you people's soul. Is this fun for y'all? Miserable focks, all of you.

:nono: 

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6 hours ago, Shooter McGavin said:

This is a joke, right?

Yes, it was 100% sarcasm.

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Mortgage rates at highest level in 16 years. 

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17 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Mortgage rates at highest level in 16 years. 

Only going up up up. 

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On 5/11/2022 at 4:49 PM, TimHauck said:

It doesn’t really count as a prediction if it takes a long time to come true

2nd coming of Christ on that list? 

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On 10/13/2022 at 10:00 AM, edjr said:

Prices rose again in September; markets poised to tumble on sign of higher interest rates

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/13/fed-inflation-september-cpi/

I think most logical people realize that if there’s a recession, then housing prices will far.  So for all the people cheering for lower house prices, be careful what you wish for

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On 10/6/2022 at 8:25 AM, Sean Mooney said:

The average property tax in New Jersey is 8400. So craftsman says he lives in an area that is paying 22000-30000 in property taxes.

I mean- not likely

It's "possible", depending on where he lives.  My brother lives in Vineland, he has a 2800 sf house and pays right round $8500 (so right around your average).  His house is assessed around $275k.  I have a cousin who lives in East Amwell, has a 3500 SF house with 2.5 acres of land.  His house is assessed at $580k and he's paying almost $15k in taxes.  I can definitely see where $22k to $30k for annual taxes occur New Jersey, in these million dollar home areas.  A co-worker of mine, his family is loaded.  His parents live in a massive house in Haddonfield.  He told me they pay around $25k.

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On 10/6/2022 at 8:52 AM, Shooter McGavin said:

It's possible, but it would have to be close to NYC.  I pay $25k in property taxes, but there are little to no apartments by me.  And where there are the most apartments, there are not that many single family homes.  By design.

Both Camden and Cape May counties have plenty of places that are very expensive to live in and pay in that ballpark.  Haddonfield, Cherry Hill, Voorhees, Avalon, & Cape May city are a few that have plenty of 7-figure homes.  Not every town that is nice (and expensive), are up north and near NYC.

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34 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

It's "possible", depending on where he lives.  My brother lives in Vineland, he has a 2800 sf house and pays right round $8500 (so right around your average).  His house is assessed around $275k.  I have a cousin who lives in East Amwell, has a 3500 SF house with 2.5 acres of land.  His house is assessed at $580k and he's paying almost $15k in taxes.  I can definitely see where $22k to $30k for annual taxes occur New Jersey, in these million dollar home areas.  A co-worker of mine, his family is loaded.  His parents live in a massive house in Haddonfield.  He told me they pay around $25k.

But he says he lives in a 1700 a month apartment in a million dollar home area.

Dubious at best.

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53 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

But he says he lives in a 1700 a month apartment in a million dollar home area.

Dubious at best.

I can believe that.  There's PLENTY of apartment complexes in NJ hitting $1500 to $2500 in Camden & Cape May counties.  Lot of very big houses too, that hit the 7 figures.  Granted, they're probably about 10 miles away (not 2 or 3), but I wouldn't be surprised if there were definitely some in the $500k to $750k not too far away.  I know Gutterboy thinks that south jersey is the hood, but there's definitely areas down here that are wealthier, nicer, and overall better, than some of the snooty places up north.

Now... whether he lives in one of those areas or not, I don't know.  But I do know the scenario he presents is plausible.

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2 hours ago, edjr said:

 

Lol nice panic porn.  This guy’s an idiot, and clearly biased because he says he’s “waiting on the sidelines wanting to buy.”  I clicked on a different and he claims that this crash is “going to be an opportunity of a lifetime.”   Unless he was born in about June 2020 (about 2 months after you predicted a crash) I doubt that’s going to be the case, and is contradicted by his own sources only predicting about a 10% decline.

Not to mention he says his real job is in the mortgage industry and a crash wouldn’t be good for that (which at least he somewhat seems to realize…hopefully he makes good money from YouTube).

It’s silly to say the increasing prices were solely driven by “free money and low interest rates.” For one interest rates had been low for awhile.  What changed in 2020 was Covid and people realizing they wanted their own space as well as more people having the opportunity to work remotely.  And people didn’t use stimulus checks to buy a house, well unless they were getting PPP loans and didn’t need them like Tom Brady.

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33 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Lol nice panic porn.  This guy’s an idiot, and clearly biased because he says he’s “waiting on the sidelines wanting to buy.”  I clicked on a different and he claims that this crash is “going to be an opportunity of a lifetime.”   Unless he was born in about June 2020 (about 2 months after you predicted a crash) I doubt that’s going to be the case, and is contradicted by his own sources only predicting about a 10% decline.

Not to mention he says his real job is in the mortgage industry and a crash wouldn’t be good for that (which at least he somewhat seems to realize…hopefully he makes good money from YouTube).

It’s silly to say the increasing prices were solely driven by “free money and low interest rates.” For one interest rates had been low for awhile.  What changed in 2020 was Covid and people realizing they wanted their own space as well as more people having the opportunity to work remotely.  And people didn’t use stimulus checks to buy a house, well unless they were getting PPP loans and didn’t need them like Tom Brady.

And Hawkeye. 

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5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

And Hawkeye. 

Hawkeye got a PPP loan and then bought a yacht?

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23 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Hawkeye got a PPP loan and then bought a yacht?

No. He just bets it. 

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49 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Hawkeye got a PPP loan and then bought a yacht?

We got a PPP loan at the advice of our bank and financial advisor.  We used it all for our payroll which worked great because we had numerous employees get covid and we were able to pay them while they were off.  We used it exactly how it was intended to be used and that is why it was forgiven.

This is just another fine example of how miserable HT is.

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29 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

No. He just bets it. 

You've got some serious personal issues.  What makes you come up with nonsense like this?

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

You've got some serious personal issues.  What makes you come up with nonsense like this?

🤪

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1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

🤪

Do you think most business owners took those loans and funneled them into their pockets?  I'm sure some tried but not the majority.

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Do you think most business owners took those loans and funneled them into their pockets?  I'm sure some tried but not the majority.

Yes I do. Did you use all of it because your employees were out sick? How long were they out sick? So you spent exactly what they gave you on salary for people out with Covid ? Yeah, I Fockin doubt it. 

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2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Yes I do. Did you use all of it because your employees were out sick? How long were they out sick? So you spent exactly what they gave you on salary for people out with Covid ? Yeah, I Fockin doubt it. 

I didn't keep track of how many hours were missed due to covid.  It did not equate to the same amount of money.  The entire loan was not required to be used on payroll though, just a certain percentage.  I believe it was about 3 months worth of payroll.

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I didn't keep track of how many hours were missed due to covid.  It did not equate to the same amount of money.  The entire loan was not required to be used on payroll though, just a certain percentage.  I believe it was about 3 months worth of payroll.

Good. You committed no crime.  But the rest of these idiots can stop yapping about the bullshit that went on with the PPP loans when it comes to someone they don’t like. 

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Fed’s Waller says market has overreacted to consumer inflation data: ‘We’ve got a long, long way to go’

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-waller-says-market-has-overreacted-to-consumer-inflation-data-weve-got-a-long-long-way-to-go-11668381864

 

 

Quote

 

Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Sunday that financial markets seem to have overreacted to the softer-than-expected October consumer price inflation data last week.

“It was just one data point,” Waller said, in a conversation in Sydney, Australia, sponsored by UBS.

“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report. Everybody should just take a deep breath, calm down. We’ve got a ways to go ” Waller said.

Investors cheered the soft CPI print, released Thursday, driving stocks up to their best week since June. The S&P 500 index SPX, 0.73% closed 5.9% higher for the week.

The data showed that the yearly rate of consumer inflation fell to 7.7% from 8.2%, marking the lowest level since January. Inflation had peaked at a nearly 41-year high of 9.1% in June.

Waller said it was good there was some evidence that inflation was coming down, but noted that there were other times over the past year where it looked like inflation was turning lower.

“We’re going to see a continued run of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down, before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes here,” Waller said.

“We’ve got a long, long way to go to get inflation down. Rates are going keep going up and they are going to stay high for awhile until we see this inflation get down closer to our target,” he added.

The Fed is focused on how high rates need to get to bring inflation down, and that will depend solely on inflation, he said.

Waller said “the worst thing” the Fed could do was stop raising rates only to have inflation explode.

 

buckle up!

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Housing prices have a long way to fall before they reach equilibrium with interest rates.  House prices rose 40+% in 3 years in many markets.  I expect them to fall by close to the same amount.  Simple supply and demand.

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56 minutes ago, Raven Fan said:

Housing prices have a long way to fall before they reach equilibrium with interest rates.  House prices rose 40+% in 3 years in many markets.  I expect them to fall by close to the same amount.  Simple supply and demand.

No chance home prices drop 40%, still massive shortages in most markets. May want to brush up on supply and demand. 

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5 minutes ago, BirdGang said:

No chance home prices drop 40%, still massive shortages in most markets. May want to brush up on supply and demand. 

I don’t know how far they’ll fall but yeah, there’s still not much supply, mostly because people with 3% mortgages don’t want to sell.  That will change if the unemployment situation changes, but if prices fall too far I assume interest rates will start coming back down.

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Also, damn you @edjr, I watched a couple of the “Real Estate Mindset” videos, and now they keep coming up as recommended.

Have to hand it to the guy, he posts the same exact video every day and is still able to get thousands of views on each…

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46 minutes ago, BirdGang said:

No chance home prices drop 40%, still massive shortages in most markets. May want to brush up on supply and demand. 

Home supply is increasing and demand for mortgages is falling.  Evan falling back to 2018 prices would leave houses way more expensive than they were then simply due to higher mortgage rates.  Rates aren't done going up and if people start losing their jobs in any meaningful way, supply will increase even more and demand will fall even more.  Home prices are already down 6% from their peak in June. 

I certainly wouldn't want to be buying or selling a house right now.  Buying would be worse.

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Get on with the focking crashing and tanking already. I'll be in Florida next month.

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12 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Also, damn you @edjr, I watched a couple of the “Real Estate Mindset” videos, and now they keep coming up as recommended.

Have to hand it to the guy, he posts the same exact video every day and is still able to get thousands of views on each…

:lol:  same here :wall:  

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12 hours ago, BirdGang said:

No chance home prices drop 40%, still massive shortages in most markets. May want to brush up on supply and demand. 

you're wrong. in some places it will, maybe not everywhere. If rates stay 6% or above into late 2023, you will see it

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