The 2023 Housing Bubble ***Apocalypse***

[edjr 5,563]

 

[RLLD 3,455]

Yes, but the prior event was driven by government policies to enhance minority ownership and which the banks perverted.....

This one is driven by government as well. but mostly their complete lack of economic understanding. 

[edjr 5,563]

1 minute ago, RLLD said:

Yes, but the prior event was driven by government policies to enhance minority ownership and which the banks perverted.....

This one is driven by government as well. but mostly their complete lack of economic understanding. 

Don't care why or how.

[RLLD 3,455]

2 minutes ago, edjr said:

Don't care why or how.

I understand your point.

I might counter with, this is avoidable.  We pay taxes so that this is not happening. Our government does not serve our interest, but takes our money. 

Our elected officials need to hear it from us, today, but also on election day....we need these career politicians OUT.  May the special interests pay through the nose every election, force them to buy new politicians.

[Raven Fan 362]

13 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Yes, but the prior event was driven by government policies to enhance minority ownership and which the banks perverted.....

This one is driven by government as well. but mostly their complete lack of economic understanding. 

*sigh* enhance minority home ownership?  If that was the goal they failed miserably since minority homeownership is nothing compared to white home ownership.  The 08 crash was created by Finance guys taking one piece of risk and creating multiple pieces of risk and packaging them as if they weren't risky.

Why in the world would you blame an effort to increase minority home ownership?  Every single one of those risky mortgages could have failed and the system would have been fine...BUT those mortgages were cut up and packaged and sold as quality notes so that all of a sudden most finance institutions had pieces of them.

[BirdGang 312]

4 hours ago, edjr said:

you're wrong. in some places it will, maybe not everywhere. If rates stay 6% or above into late 2023, you will see it

Higher rates will slow the demand obviously, erasing all gains highly unlikely. Sorry, not happening in the majority of our country. No chance with this limited inventory. 

[edjr 5,563]

Just now, BirdGang said:

Higher rates will slow the demand obviously, erasing all gains highly unlikely. Sorry, not happening in the majority of our country. No chance with this limited inventory. 

Bruh, it just started. going to be a slow process. 2024 maybe

[BirdGang 312]

Just now, edjr said:

Bruh, it just started. going to be a slow process. 2024 maybe

Cool feel free to tag me in 2024 with the one tiny market it might have happened in, overall not happening though. 

[Raven Fan 362]

1 minute ago, BirdGang said:

Higher rates will slow the demand obviously, erasing all gains highly unlikely. Sorry, not happening in the majority of our country. No chance with this limited inventory. 

So investors are out.  Higher rates push many more people out.  WFH is shutting down.  Just where is the demand coming from competing for this low inventory?

A house near me just listed 2+ weeks ago for a solid $200k more than it would have pre-pandemic.  As a test let's see what it goes for.  So far it's been up for 2+ weeks, 2 weekends of open houses, not sold.

[Gepetto 985]

It's not going to sell.  It's overpriced.  Pandemic pricing is over.

[Raven Fan 362]

3 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

It's not going to sell.  It's overpriced.  Pandemic pricing is over.

According to our friend Gobirds the price will only drop a little.  This will be an interesting test since of course I live in a highly desirable area. 

[RLLD 3,455]

27 minutes ago, Raven Fan said:

*sigh* enhance minority home ownership?  If that was the goal they failed miserably since minority homeownership is nothing compared to white home ownership.  The 08 crash was created by Finance guys taking one piece of risk and creating multiple pieces of risk and packaging them as if they weren't risky.

Why in the world would you blame an effort to increase minority home ownership?  Every single one of those risky mortgages could have failed and the system would have been fine...BUT those mortgages were cut up and packaged and sold as quality notes so that all of a sudden most finance institutions had pieces of them.

Yes. Enhancing home ownership was the stated goal of government spanning multiple Presidents.

The intent of subprime lending for minority ownership assistance was pursued with the best of intentions, and roughly doubled from below 10% of mortgage originations, to around 20% from 2004-2006. Sadly, what arose is that banks used CDO's to offset the risk, but went too far and those CDO's were essentially worthless.

In the aftermath there was an evaluation that resulted in a few admissions as to what happened.

1) Aggressive promotion of easy automated underwriting standards
2) Aggressive promotion of easy collateral appraisal systems
3) Promotion of thousands of small mortgage brokers
4) Creation of the low-quality loan products offered by private lenders
5) Close relationship to loan aggregators
6) False reporting of subprime purchases
7) Estimates of the subprime loan and securities purchases of Fannie and Freddie

The Community Reinvestment Act is often pointed to for the issues that arose, this is not universally accepted and some economists challenge the assertion.

 

Peter J. Wallison, “Dissent from the Majority Report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission,” (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, January 2011), 18, www.aei.org.

 

 

[edjr 5,563]

39 minutes ago, Raven Fan said:

According to our friend Gobirds the price will only drop a little.  This will be an interesting test since of course I live in a highly desirable area. 

if they rates do not drop to 4% that isn't possible. Prices have to drop.

[BirdGang 312]

2 hours ago, Raven Fan said:

So investors are out.  Higher rates push many more people out.  WFH is shutting down.  Just where is the demand coming from competing for this low inventory?

A house near me just listed 2+ weeks ago for a solid $200k more than it would have pre-pandemic.  As a test let's see what it goes for.  So far it's been up for 2+ weeks, 2 weekends of open houses, not sold.

Man you are not very smart, a random listing 2 weeks ago is your evidence? Let me change my statement from “no chance” to only if Biden or someone else as low IQ as you gets elected.

[BirdGang 312]

3 hours ago, Raven Fan said:

According to our friend Gobirds the price will only drop a little.  This will be an interesting test since of course I live in a highly desirable area. 

You are an idiot claiming 40%, the Great Recession wasn’t that bad. Sorry, but we are all dumber for reading your posts. 

[edjr 5,563]

41 minutes ago, BirdGang said:

You are an idiot claiming 40%, the Great Recession was only in the 20’s. Sorry, but we are all dumber for reading your posts. 

since Q2 of 2020, real estate has gone up from $375,000 to $543,000 in Q3 of 2022 that is over 40%

Link - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

With rates at 7% now, they have nowhere to go but down. When will rates get to 5%? Prices will have to go down a minimum of 20%

How many people will lose their houses over the next 2 years from losing their job or paying more than they could afford?

The market could be flooded with houses within 2 years.

 

[BirdGang 312]

17 minutes ago, edjr said:

since Q2 of 2020, real estate has gone up from $375,000 to $543,000 in Q3 of 2022 that is over 40%

Link - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

With rates at 7% now, they have nowhere to go but down. When will rates get to 5%? Prices will have to go down a minimum of 20%

How many people will lose their houses over the next 2 years from losing their job or paying more than they could afford?

The market could be flooded with houses within 2 years.

 

It’s doesn’t take a genius to see prices will come down, that’s pretty obvious we are in that phase of the cycle. Saying the market gives up 40% when the Great Recession was less than that is pretty stupid with what we know now inventory wise. If you really buy that you should get the hell of the message board and go work on your bunker. 

[edjr 5,563]

9 minutes ago, BirdGang said:

It’s doesn’t take a genius to see prices will come down, that’s pretty obvious we are in that phase of the cycle. Saying the market gives up 40% when the Great Recession was less than that is pretty stupid with what we know now inventory wise. If you really buy that you should get the hell of the message board and go work on your bunker. 

did prices go up 40% in less than 2 years before the great recession? stop being obtuse. did people work from home and think it was permanent and have it taken away during the great recession?

[BirdGang 312]

11 minutes ago, edjr said:

did prices go up 40% in less than 2 years before the great recession? stop being obtuse. did people work from home and think it was permanent and have it taken away during the great recession?

You may want to do your homework, you have no idea what you are talking about. 

[lod001 1,237]

Not sure whether this is good for housing or bad in the near future but mexicans are stacking 2-4 families in homes that should be for one. 

[edjr 5,563]

24 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Not sure whether this is good for housing or bad in the near future but mexicans are stacking 2-4 families in homes that should be for one. 

That has been going on since Obama took office

[edjr 5,563]

50 minutes ago, BirdGang said:

You may want to do your homework, you have no idea what you are talking about. 

ObTuSe   https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

[easilyscan 558]

4 hours ago, RLLD said:

Yes. Enhancing home ownership was the stated goal of government spanning multiple Presidents.

The intent of subprime lending for minority ownership assistance was pursued with the best of intentions, and roughly doubled from below 10% of mortgage originations, to around 20% from 2004-2006. Sadly, what arose is that banks used CDO's to offset the risk, but went too far and those CDO's were essentially worthless.

In the aftermath there was an evaluation that resulted in a few admissions as to what happened.

1) Aggressive promotion of easy automated underwriting standards
2) Aggressive promotion of easy collateral appraisal systems
3) Promotion of thousands of small mortgage brokers
4) Creation of the low-quality loan products offered by private lenders
5) Close relationship to loan aggregators
6) False reporting of subprime purchases
7) Estimates of the subprime loan and securities purchases of Fannie and Freddie

The Community Reinvestment Act is often pointed to for the issues that arose, this is not universally accepted and some economists challenge the assertion.

 

Peter J. Wallison, “Dissent from the Majority Report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission,” (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute, January 2011), 18, www.aei.org.

 

 

Thanks for educating those who had no idea that the government created the 'infrastructure' that helped create the 2008-2009 meltdown.

An explanation anyone can understand. https://www.backwoodshome.com/the-meltdown-and-the-bailout-why-how-and-what-they-mean/

Barney (my voice is garbled because my mouth is full of ***) Frank responding to W's people who were raising concerns long before 2008.

 

[BirdGang 312]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

ObTuSe   https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

Good luck with your bunker! Get all the canned beans you can before they are gone! 

[TimHauck 1,799]

3 hours ago, edjr said:

since Q2 of 2020, real estate has gone up from $375,000 to $543,000 in Q3 of 2022 that is over 40%

Link - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

With rates at 7% now, they have nowhere to go but down. When will rates get to 5%? Prices will have to go down a minimum of 20%

How many people will lose their houses over the next 2 years from losing their job or paying more than they could afford?

The market could be flooded with houses within 2 years.

 

 

2 hours ago, edjr said:

did prices go up 40% in less than 2 years before the great recession? stop being obtuse. did people work from home and think it was permanent and have it taken away during the great recession?

Not 2 years, but looks like they went up 40% in 4 years based on your chart.

I think how bad it gets depends entirely on the unemployment/layoff situation.  The thing with the prices going up so fast, is that it will mostly only be people that bought in the last 2 years that could be underwater (or people that took out HELOC’s and such).  Not to mention a big part of the reason for prices rising so fast was ridiculously low inventory (despite going up recently, inventory is still about 20% lower than it was in March 2020 - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS), so that number of people may not be a significant % of total homeowners. 

But overall, if people keep their jobs, most of them won’t need to sell their house, and will likely try even harder not to if they have a 3% mortgage.  There needs to be massive job losses IMO for there to be a “flood” of inventory.  I also think some of the current increase in inventory now could also be people that don’t necessary need to sell trying to time the peak and get out on top.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,631]

This is why the banks love all those illegals coming here. 

[edjr 5,563]

12 hours ago, TimHauck said:

 

Not 2 years, but looks like they went up 40% in 4 years based on your chart.

I think how bad it gets depends entirely on the unemployment/layoff situation.  The thing with the prices going up so fast, is that it will mostly only be people that bought in the last 2 years that could be underwater (or people that took out HELOC’s and such).  Not to mention a big part of the reason for prices rising so fast was ridiculously low inventory (despite going up recently, inventory is still about 20% lower than it was in March 2020 - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS), so that number of people may not be a significant % of total homeowners. 

But overall, if people keep their jobs, most of them won’t need to sell their house, and will likely try even harder not to if they have a 3% mortgage.  There needs to be massive job losses IMO for there to be a “flood” of inventory.  I also think some of the current increase in inventory now could also be people that don’t necessary need to sell trying to time the peak and get out on top.

[Raven Fan 362]

Anyone who thinks that a price increase of 40% in 2 years at 3% mortgages won't result in MASSIVE price declines when interest rates are 7%+ has no clue how the housing market works.  Oh, and 3% interest rates coupled with low inflation, now we have high inflation too.

Also, housing inventory will increase MOM as houses sit on the market for months, not days, like the last 2 years.

I'll be sure to bookmark this thread and report back in a year.

[TimHauck 1,799]

1 hour ago, Raven Fan said:

Anyone who thinks that a price increase of 40% in 2 years at 3% mortgages won't result in MASSIVE price declines when interest rates are 7%+ has no clue how the housing market works.  Oh, and 3% interest rates coupled with low inflation, now we have high inflation too.

Also, housing inventory will increase MOM as houses sit on the market for months, not days, like the last 2 years.

I'll be sure to bookmark this thread and report back in a year.

Bump what?  That someone doesn’t think prices will decline by 40%? I think everyone     knows they will decline, the question is how much 

[Raven Fan 362]

9 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Bump what?  That someone doesn’t think prices will decline by 40%? I think everyone     knows they will decline, the question is how much 

GoBirds seems to think prices won't fall that much.  I will bump the thread in a year and we'll see who was correct.  Should be interesting. 

[BirdGang 312]

5 hours ago, Raven Fan said:

Anyone who thinks that a price increase of 40% in 2 years at 3% mortgages won't result in MASSIVE price declines when interest rates are 7%+ has no clue how the housing market works.  Oh, and 3% interest rates coupled with low inflation, now we have high inflation too.

Also, housing inventory will increase MOM as houses sit on the market for months, not days, like the last 2 years.

I'll be sure to bookmark this thread and report back in a year.

Look at what a coward you are already back tracking off the 40% discussed. The old saying “if you are going to be dumb you better be tough” was made for you. Please be a man and own it in a year when this doesn’t happen, we all know you won’t but let’s challenge you to be a man for once. Also the hole Lib dumpster you live in in DC doesn’t count, we are talking our overall country. Everyone knows the Lib cesspools with no laws should be negative value already.  

[Raven Fan 362]

2 hours ago, BirdGang said:

Look at what a coward you are already back tracking off the 40% discussed. The old saying “if you are going to be dumb you better be tough” was made for you. Please be a man and own it in a year when this doesn’t happen, we all know you won’t but let’s challenge you to be a man for once. Also the hole Lib dumpster you live in in DC doesn’t count, we are talking our overall country. Everyone knows the Lib cesspools with no laws should be negative value already.  

You post like a child.  Are the most expensive areas in the country liberal or conservative?  What does that tell you about where people want to live?

I do believe that prices will decline in the neighborhood of 40%.  Let's check back in a year.  Hopefully you grow up a bit.

[edjr 5,563]

 

[edjr 5,563]

 

Nope. The market will not be flooded with houses  

The data does not lie. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,631]

People are still jacking up their credit cards. Same as in early 2008. 

[RLLD 3,455]

If left to itself to correct, the real estate market has been remarkably efficient doing so on its own.  The main problem is when government gets involved.  

But then again, that is true for anything. ANYTHING the government touches they ruin. 

[edjr 5,563]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

People are still jacking up their credit cards. Same as in early 2008. 

And now banks are making it easier for non whites to get a loan.  

Definition of insanity  

Now the question is, will it be Biden who bails the banks out in 4, 5 years?

[TimHauck 1,799]

35 minutes ago, edjr said:

 

Nope. The market will not be flooded with houses  

Is there anything particular from this video that sticks out to you?  It looks like more of the same data that we’ve been seeing for a few months now, really the main bad thing that stands out to me is the % increase in mortgage payment.   But there are other stats indicating it may not be as bad as some think, such as active listings still being about 20-30% lower than 2018-2019, or that 26% of listings are still selling for over the asking price.

[lod001 1,237]

Housing needs to the bed (reset) so we can get back to normal. The price of housing is pure insanity. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,631]

32 minutes ago, edjr said:

And now banks are making it easier for non whites to get a loan.  

Definition of insanity  

Now the question is, will it be Biden who bails the banks out in 4, 5 years?

Someone will. Like your boy GC said, they own you.