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wolves111

Way To Early Draft Thoughts

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Just secured the 7th pick in a ten team ppr redraft league. Looks like there's a variety of opinions forming after Taylor at #1, but while the early rankings I've seen differ by order most include the following: Taylor, Henry, Ekeler, McCaffrey, Cook, Kupp, Mixon, Harris, Chubb, Jefferson.

Picking 7th seems like a good spot, as my second pick, #14, should give me solid options (Mixon & Diggs, Harris and Deebo, RB and Rb)). Does anyone have strong feelings that another player should be included in the top 10-15 I might be overlooking?


 

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Bengals Wr Chase. 

Lions  Rb Swift

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agreed on chase.

swift may be a guy you can get in the 2nd round.   I like the talent, and I can see him making a jump if he can stay healthy.

but his health is already showing as a possible issue.  2 seasons 13 games per season.   

recurring groin injury.

That is the main concern with him.   fantasy points per game suggest hes also a 2nd round pick but like I said, the offense in Detroit will be better this year and therefore I think his stats will also be better-if he stays healthy.

key word being IF.

and picking 7 out of 10.   I think the odds are fair that hes still around when you pick in round 2.  hes a far better deal there.

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Op did say top 10-15.  So that would be the second round, maybe.  

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Hard to believe the fall that Hill, Zeke, Metcalf are experiencing. Two of the highest paid players, and in Metcalf's case, soon to be one of the highest paid, and they can't even sniff round #1. 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Op did say top 10-15.  So that would be the second round, maybe.  

ok I assumed he meant for his #7 overall pick in the 10 team league.   didnt think he meant for the next pick.

if hes  wanting names for his second pick Swift is in the conversation for sure.

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It would be very difficult for me to justify taking an RB at the 7th pick. There should be some top WRs available.

I would take Cooper Kupp if available

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5 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Henry and McCaffrey have seen better days

McCaffrey for sure..... injured 2 years in a row.   hes still young, but 2 years in a row is enough to make me question whether his body can take the pounding as a starting RB in the NFL.

Henry has had better seasons, he was on his way to having a great one when he got hurt.   21 fantasy points per game.    best in the NFL.

his issue is he will be 28 before the next season begins, so he likely only has one, maybe two good years left.   if he has three good years left in him hes extremely lucky.

I'd take him in redraft if he fell to me at any pick.   I'd take my chances with him getting re injured if he can keep that 20+ fantasy points per game going.

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1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Henry and McCaffrey have seen better days

🤪 based on 1/2 point ppr, Henry was number one in avg points per game, he’s not a concern. 

 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

🤪 based on 1/2 point ppr, Henry was number one in avg points per game, he’s not a concern. 

 

How many games? 8, right?

This being the guy that’s been running 300+ times a year for several years going.

And Tennessee was just fine without Derrick BTW.

I could be too early in making the call, but better that than too late.

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Yes I know it’s amazing that in 8 games he was number one in 1/2 point ppr in avg. n

He was over all 18th in total points, so in only eight games he was still a mid rb2.  

He is the only rb who played in less then nine games last season to finish in the top 39 in total points, the guy is a great rb.  

He avg 167 rush att in his first three seasons , he hasn’t had 300 plus rush att for several seasons, let’s try two out of six nfl seasons.  

And he’s returning this season with plenty of rest. 

Yea your to early, but good news for those other owners.  

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2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yes I know it’s amazing that in 8 games he was number one in 1/2 point ppr in avg. n

He was over all 18th in total points, so in only eight games he was still a mid rb2.  

He is the only rb who played in less then nine games last season to finish in the top 39 in total points, the guy is a great rb.  

He avg 167 rush att in his first three seasons , he hasn’t had 300 plus rush att for several seasons, let’s try two out of six nfl seasons.  

And he’s returning this season with plenty of rest. 

Yea your to early, but good news for those other owners.  

Last three years before this one. Yeah one year was “only” 260 carries, whatever

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3 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

How many games? 8, right?

This being the guy that’s been running 300+ times a year for several years going.

And Tennessee was just fine without Derrick BTW.

I could be too early in making the call, but better that than too late.

 

10 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Last three years before this one. Yeah one year was “only” 260 carries, whatever

Maybe you don’t understand.  

2016 110 att

2017 176 att

2018 215 att those three seasons avg out to 167 avg per season. 

2019 303 att

2020 378 att 

2021 219 att.  What three years before this one? 🤢 And we’re do you see 260 att? 🧐

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2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

 

Maybe you don’t understand.  

2016 110 att

2017 176 att

2018 215 att those three seasons avg out to 167 avg per season. 

2019 303 att

2020 378 att 

2021 219 att.  What three years before this one? 🤢 And we’re do you see 260 att? 🧐

So you’ve got a guy they ran the wheels off of in 2020. Year before that they ran him into the ground too. Year before that he had what would be a regular high workload.

Then last year he has 219 attempts in eight games? That right? That’s insane! YPC way down and he’s only got 8 games in him.

I’m just not loving that. But maybe I’m wrong and he’s got another 378 attempt/2,000 yard season in him :dunno:

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5 hours ago, weepaws said:

🤪 based on 1/2 point ppr, Henry was number one in avg points per game, he’s not a concern. 

 

My point of why he’s still very much a top rb , and very much so worthy of a first round pick. 

4 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

How many games? 8, right?

This being the guy that’s been running 300+ times a year for several years going.

And Tennessee was just fine without Derrick BTW.

I could be too early in making the call, but better that than too late.

You’re  attempt at  proving me wrong, in which you were wrong, and I gladly helped you out, free of charge of course

54 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

So you’ve got a guy they ran the wheels off of in 2020. Year before that they ran him into the ground too. Year before that he had what would be a regular high workload.

Then last year he has 219 attempts in eight games? That right? That’s insane! YPC way down and he’s only got 8 games in him.

I’m just not loving that. But maybe I’m wrong and he’s got another 378 attempt/2,000 yard season in him :dunno:

Did you see that he only played in nine total games last season, did you see that he only had 239 rush att, and did you that he’s had a lot of rest.  

Hey did you know that other Rbs have exceeded the 300 rush att mark in consecutive seasons? 

Yea E Smith did it three straight seasons, B Sanders did it five straight seasons, and W Payton once did it 6 straight seasons, and then four more straight after that.   Henry is a big tough man, he’ll be the top ff rb this season, he’ll beat out Taylor from New Jersey.  

Book it.  Yea you will be wrong , and unhappy 👍

 

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I think he has at least one more big year in him.

because of his high use, his career may end a year sooner than most (30) but I'd bet hes got one great year left and maybe a good one after that.

though I've seen a lot of cases where it seems  a RB cannot follow a high use year with another high use year very often.  they usually get hurt, but in some cases after that they come back for one more big, high use year.  its possible he has a big one this next year.  he is still young enough.  I just wouldnt bet on much beyond that.

he seems to take the wear and tear of the position better than most and he never took the starting job until a bit later in his career which may be a saving grace in this case.

he also is running behind a very good O line.  My belief is that this is probably the more important factor to consider.

that said, in redraft I'd take Henry early in round 1 if I had the chance.  but this would likely be the last year I'd do that for him.

but, if you disagree, that just means you wont end up with him on your team (for better or worse)   as you value him less than I do, maybe thats the way its supposed to be.

either way, I'm enjoying the debate.

cheers.

 

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I think Henry will be the top scoring rb in 1/2 point ppr.  

So if I’m picking First he’s my pick. 

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6 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think Henry will be the top scoring rb in 1/2 point ppr.  

So if I’m picking First he’s my pick. 

Well, that's certainly going against the Taylor hype train. Tenn lost A.J. Brown so he'll see plenty of stacked fronts. Taylor will also see his share especially with rag arm Ryan behind center. I still think CMC should be in the conversation. Injuries are indeed a concern but he's still relatively young. Cook has similar concerns. I'm starting to warm up to picking in the back half of round #1 and getting a stud WR and a RB.

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3 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Tenn lost A.J. Brown so he'll see plenty of stacked fronts.

If Tennessee is smart, they will replace Brown in the lineup with other WRs, so that opposing defenses will still have to cover them.

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4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Well, that's certainly going against the Taylor hype train. Tenn lost A.J. Brown so he'll see plenty of stacked fronts. Taylor will also see his share especially with rag arm Ryan behind center. I still think CMC should be in the conversation. Injuries are indeed a concern but he's still relatively young. Cook has similar concerns. I'm starting to warm up to picking in the back half of round #1 and getting a stud WR and a RB.

If I’m picking 7th, and Henry is still available he’s my pick.  

CMC is still in the conversation, but I’m not ranking him in the first round, I’ll pass and take a wr in the first over him.  His avg points per game was still very good so we know when he’s on the field he’s going to produce. I think a later pick is a good one, we do get to pick are draft slots, but it’s last to first, so last season I had the last selection and ended up with the third pick.  

Were now going from a 14 team non ppr, to a 12 team 1/2 ppr.  Looking forward to the change.  

 

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4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

If Tennessee is smart, they will replace Brown in the lineup with other WRs, so that opposing defenses will still have to cover them.

No I’m sure they’ll put a fullback out wide :wacko:

  • Haha 1

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