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wolves111

Cook and Kamara

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I've been reading about the offensive changes being implemented in Minnesota placing emphasis on the passing game. Cook has been lining up as a WR which would enhance his value in ppr much like Deebo, in theory. The one caveat however is the lawsuit hanging over his head from November 2021 alleging he assaulted his girlfriend. Gee haven't heard that before from an NFL player.

Along with the uncertainty surrounding Cooks, and Kamara's, legal troubles, the number of true #1 RB's draftable in round #1 are diminishing. Do you take one of these guys hoping he won't get suspended? Big risk. Some of the other RB's like Carson, Gibson, Elliott, Robinson. Williams, Sanders, Jones, are dealing with age, health issues, competition, and RBBC popularity and it has really muddied the landscape for the position. I'm wondering if it wouldn't be a bad idea to draft a couple of #1 WR's early and then take a handful of lesser RB's (Jacobs, Montgonery, Barkley, Pollard, Gordon) as an example in rounds 3-5, assuming they might be available. Big assumption that might not even be doable if the position gets further depleted.

Topic #2 deals with weepaws theory about not taking a QB until round 10 or later. I never really considered it but after reviewing the point deferential between the #1 QB vs the #8 its roughly 6 points per week. That in itself could be the difference between winning and losing. However, it allows you to build a stronger roster at other positions. Taking the QB in round four prevents you from taking a higher rated RB, TE, or WR at that spot that could in theory make up the 6 point differential and have a cascading effect the rest of the draft.

Interesting concept. Has anyone had success with this?

 

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1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

Interesting concept. Has anyone had success with this?

Pretty much everyone has success with that.

Unless you get one of the top 5 QBs (and there's no guarantee that the preseason top 5 will be top 5 by the end of the season), the next 12 or so are virtually interchangeable, so it doesn't really matter which one you get.  If you do get one of the top 5, like you said, it's probably going to cost you a quality RB3/WR2 to pick a QB that early anyway, so you're losing points at other positions.

QB is the new D; as long as you have one, it doesn't really matter which one.

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in many years what I do is I estimate the number of RB's vs WR's vs QB's to go in a given round based on ADP's.  

then I estimate the point dropoff for each position if you dont take the best player on the board at that particular position.

so if the best QB on the board puts up 27 points per game in the middle of round 1.

if (based on ADP) only  1 QB is likely to go between this point and the middle of round 2 and the second best QB puts up 23 points per game, the points lost at QB by not taking one in round 1 is 4 points.

then if you look at the best RB on the board.  lets say he gets 18 points per game and if you wait, 8 RB's are likely to go off the board by the middle of the next round and the most likely points per game is around 13.   the dropoff is 5 points if you dont take a RB.  therefore your best option is to go RB at this point in the draft because the projected dropoff is larger.   you effectively save your self one fantasy point per game by taking the RB ahead of the QB.

you go through this exercise with WR and TE as well and you have a good idea of what you want to take.

That said, this strategy can also tell you at what point you switch from RB to QB.   so maybe the draft doesnt go as planned and there is a bigger run on RB's early than expected.  if the best RB on the board is now projected to get 16 points, your dropoff is now 3 points and the QB is the better option if that scenario plays out.

Thats how I manage my draft. 

this process is rather time consuming so I generally only do it for the first couple rounds and then draft for positions of need after that.

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1/2 Point ppr in the first round I would throw in, Mixon, Swift, Mccaffery yes even with his issues, and Ekeler. 

Henry would be my top rb pick, followed by Taylor.  

But I’m taking any of those six first round if I get the change to do so , 12 team 1/2 ppr.  

 

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On 5/19/2022 at 10:03 AM, wolves111 said:

 

Topic #2 deals with weepaws theory about not taking a QB until round 10 or later. I never really considered it but after reviewing the point deferential between the #1 QB vs the #8 its roughly 6 points per week. That in itself could be the difference between winning and losing. 

 

A better way to look at this is to look at the point differential of the 8th starter versus the average of the 1-7 QBs since you don't play the number 1 qb every week.  Even that isn't a great way to look at it since the top 8 qbs in any given week won't be the top 8 qbs over the season.

In reality, anyone who says never or always do something likely has a fundamental lack of understanding and is just regurgitating advice.  In reality, the reason you can draft qbs late is you can usually find a top 5 qb in round 10 or later.  For some reason, people are really bad at figuring out which qbs are going to be good.  For instance, Matt Stafford last year was pretty obvious.

This year people are probably going to screw up and draft Rodgers in the 5th ahead of Russell Wilson and Stafford.  People will discount Brady since he's old.  Dak will go too late.  

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

In reality, anyone who says never or always do something likely has a fundamental lack of understanding and is just regurgitating advice. 

Bingo 

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3 hours ago, nobody said:

In reality, anyone who says never or always do something likely has a fundamental lack of understanding and is just regurgitating advice. 

in most cases this is true.   my argument is that there are basic rules you may follow, but there are cases where it pays to make an exception.

that said, if someone wants to make a rule they follow where they never draft someone at risk of being suspended due to off season behavior, I can understand why they woudnt do such a thing.

what I dont like is when people say always do this or never do that and then provide no explanation to backup their claim.

I'm sorry but I'm not gonna make a fantasy decision just based on your good word sir.   I need a reason or a rationale as to why.  

not unreasonable.

someone had a bad season last year?  so dont draft him?   well lets look into the reason for the bad season.    if the reason for the bad season no longer exists is it unreasonable to expect a turnaround?

these are all questions that need to be asked.

I dont like the one line answers at all.  does nothing for me.

 

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3 hours ago, nobody said:

A better way to look at this is to look at the point differential of the 8th starter versus the average of the 1-7 QBs since you don't play the number 1 qb every week.  Even that isn't a great way to look at it since the top 8 qbs in any given week won't be the top 8 qbs over the season.

In reality, anyone who says never or always do something likely has a fundamental lack of understanding and is just regurgitating advice.  In reality, the reason you can draft qbs late is you can usually find a top 5 qb in round 10 or later.  For some reason, people are really bad at figuring out which qbs are going to be good.  For instance, Matt Stafford last year was pretty obvious.

This year people are probably going to screw up and draft Rodgers in the 5th ahead of Russell Wilson and Stafford.  People will discount Brady since he's old.  Dak will go too late.  

Agreed.  Its not a winning move for everyone that, just for those that like winning at ff.  

Cant look at it as number one Vs number eight , just doesn’t happen on a weekly bases.  It’s a move that also makes it easier to stream qbs , since I only draft one.  Makes the rest of my team stronger with my weekly starters and it gives one a deeper bench.  

Good post thanks.  

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The goal with QBs is to try and get a top 3-5 guy in rounds 7-9. Two years ago that was doable with Aaron Rodgers. Last year it was with Brady. Waiting till round 10 or later meant neither of them…

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4 hours ago, nobody said:

A better way to look at this is to look at the point differential of the 8th starter versus the average of the 1-7 QBs since you don't play the number 1 qb every week.  Even that isn't a great way to look at it since the top 8 qbs in any given week won't be the top 8 qbs over the season.

In reality, anyone who says never or always do something likely has a fundamental lack of understanding and is just regurgitating advice.  In reality, the reason you can draft qbs late is you can usually find a top 5 qb in round 10 or later.  For some reason, people are really bad at figuring out which qbs are going to be good.  For instance, Matt Stafford last year was pretty obvious.

This year people are probably going to screw up and draft Rodgers in the 5th ahead of Russell Wilson and Stafford.  People will discount Brady since he's old.  Dak will go too late.  

Top 5 qb in round 10 or later? That’s pretty ambitious

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No matter what round one drafts a Qb, one is always looking for a top five Qb.  

Im looking for a Qb that’s going to be a top five Qb weekly, more so then for the entire season.  

I stream Qbs like I stream Te kickers and def, and heck if I land a good one I’ll keep him until there is a better matchup with a different Qb.  

Now how often does one draft a so called top five Qb only to have drafted a disappointment.  Mahomes 2019 comes to mind, he didn’t even finish top five in avg per game points , but J Winston finished second 🥳

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1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

Top 5 qb in round 10 or later? That’s pretty ambitious

Exaggeration

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On 5/22/2022 at 6:49 PM, weepaws said:

No matter what round one drafts a Qb, one is always looking for a top five Qb.  

Im looking for a Qb that’s going to be a top five Qb weekly, more so then for the entire season.  

I stream Qbs like I stream Te kickers and def, and heck if I land a good one I’ll keep him until there is a better matchup with a different Qb.  

Now how often does one draft a so called top five Qb only to have drafted a disappointment.  Mahomes 2019 comes to mind, he didn’t even finish top five in avg per game points , but J Winston finished second 🥳

All of that could really apply to any position, not just QB.

Last season I streamed both my RB spots pretty much every single week. It mostly worked too. By the end of the season, I had 3 top 15 RBs.

QB is the most reliable position, but it's also the easiest to get a good player.

I used to draft QBs early, but not so much any more. Not saying I never would.

No fantasy rule like that should be set in stone.

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On 5/19/2022 at 1:03 PM, wolves111 said:

I've been reading about the offensive changes being implemented in Minnesota placing emphasis on the passing game. Cook has been lining up as a WR which would enhance his value in ppr much like Deebo, in theory. The one caveat however is the lawsuit hanging over his head from November 2021 alleging he assaulted his girlfriend. Gee haven't heard that before from an NFL player.

Along with the uncertainty surrounding Cooks, and Kamara's, legal troubles, the number of true #1 RB's draftable in round #1 are diminishing. Do you take one of these guys hoping he won't get suspended? Big risk. Some of the other RB's like Carson, Gibson, Elliott, Robinson. Williams, Sanders, Jones, are dealing with age, health issues, competition, and RBBC popularity and it has really muddied the landscape for the position. I'm wondering if it wouldn't be a bad idea to draft a couple of #1 WR's early and then take a handful of lesser RB's (Jacobs, Montgonery, Barkley, Pollard, Gordon) as an example in rounds 3-5, assuming they might be available. Big assumption that might not even be doable if the position gets further depleted.

Topic #2 deals with weepaws theory about not taking a QB until round 10 or later. I never really considered it but after reviewing the point deferential between the #1 QB vs the #8 its roughly 6 points per week. That in itself could be the difference between winning and losing. However, it allows you to build a stronger roster at other positions. Taking the QB in round four prevents you from taking a higher rated RB, TE, or WR at that spot that could in theory make up the 6 point differential and have a cascading effect the rest of the draft.

Interesting concept. Has anyone had success with this?

 

Last season I picked up James Conner and Cordarelle Patterson off waivers.

Both finished the season ahead of Kamara and Cook.

There's only gonna be about 4-5 RBs that are worthy of a high draft pick.

Both Kamara and Cook are trending in the wrong direction.

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

All of that could really apply to any position, not just QB.

Last season I streamed both my RB spots pretty much every single week. It mostly worked too. By the end of the season, I had 3 top 15 RBs.

QB is the most reliable position, but it's also the easiest to get a good player.

I used to draft QBs early, but not so much any more. Not saying I never would.

No fantasy rule like that should be set in stone.

it depends largely on your format and rules.

My early draft is based on the projected point loss if I wait a round to acquire a player.

so I wouldnt have picked Mahomes in round 1 like some people would have.   but if he fell to round 3 I might have. (hint its never happened in any league I've been in other than his early career before he was a star)

so if the right player drops, I make an exception.  granted if people pick where they should this should never happen but sometimes it can and does happen.   Thats where doing your homework on this scenario makes sense.

This Year I do expect Mahomes goes at least a round later than he has in the past, but I also dont expect the same numbers from him this year due to the loss of Tyreek.  but hes still a very good QB and may end up running the ball a bit more if his WR dont get open. (he has that ability)

bottom line is always keep an open mind as you may have rules for your draft but there are exceptions for every rule.

 

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2 hours ago, polecatt said:

All of that could really apply to any position, not just QB.

Last season I streamed both my RB spots pretty much every single week. It mostly worked too. By the end of the season, I had 3 top 15 RBs.

QB is the most reliable position, but it's also the easiest to get a good player.

I used to draft QBs early, but not so much any more. Not saying I never would.

No fantasy rule like that should be set in stone.

I would disagree, it might have been the case for you last season, in my leagues whats left at rb and wr aren’t top 15 players.  No one should ever draft a Qb before double digit rounds, no one else has to do it , but that’s my style , and it works every single season.  It should never be a ff rule, and I don’t know of any leagues that have that as a rule   

Most cant handle it 👍

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From Ray T:

if (based on ADP) only  1 QB is likely to go between this point and the middle of round 2 and the second best QB puts up 23 points per game, the points lost at QB by not taking one in round 1 is 4 points.

then if you look at the best RB on the board.  lets say he gets 18 points per game and if you wait, 8 RB's are likely to go off the board by the middle of the next round and the most likely points per game is around 13.   the dropoff is 5 points if you dont take a RB.  therefore your best option is to go RB at this point in the draft because the projected dropoff is larger.   you effectively save your self one fantasy point per game by taking the RB ahead of the QB.

you go through this exercise with WR and TE as well and you have a good idea of what you want to take.

 

Per moi: I think Rotoworld also does this; I "tier" players by position.  I also consider FF playoff week matchups when ranking players.  Generally I don't take a QB earlier than 6th or 7th round.  Get my skill players, first (2RB, 2WR, TE, FLEX).  Most of the time, I let the draft "fall to me."  If there is only one player left (e.g., WR) at the remaining highest tier, then I will take him with my next pick.  I don't go to the extreme of guessing pts per game .. but I do look for "natural breaks" in skill or opportunity between the sets of players.

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Doesn’t anyone else use their own rankings?

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Doesn’t anyone else use their own rankings?

I do my own but I find it saves time to take a ranking from a source that I feel is reasonable (for me fftoday rankings) and then I adjust based on my own preferences.

I usually have two ranking sets.  one based on rank.  then I have a high and low for each player in terms of production.   

sometimes it is more important to look at a floor and a ceiling for a player.    Late in the draft I like to grab one or two players with a high ceiling because if you hit it can be a game changer for your draft.

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I don't usually rank guys or even look at rankings.  I just look at ADP and try to target people in each round.

For instance, I think Amari Cooper is going to be a slam dunk top 20 receiver this year.  I'm not necessarily going to draft him as the 20th receiver if I can get him as the 25th.

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2 hours ago, nobody said:

I think Amari Cooper is going to be a slam dunk top 20 receiver this year.

Has Jacoby Brissett ever supported a top 20 receiver before?

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4 hours ago, nobody said:

I don't usually rank guys or even look at rankings.  I just look at ADP and try to target people in each round.

For instance, I think Amari Cooper is going to be a slam dunk top 20 receiver this year.  I'm not necessarily going to draft him as the 20th receiver if I can get him as the 25th.

How about 19th? 

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I rank Rbs and WRs all throughout the summer.  I use footballguys I check out the rosters and rank.  I don’t bother with qbs or tes or kickers or def until draft day.  I do compare my final cheat sheet with the current ADP so I don’t buy to early or to late.   

 

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9 hours ago, nobody said:

I don't usually rank guys or even look at rankings.  I just look at ADP and try to target people in each round.

For instance, I think Amari Cooper is going to be a slam dunk top 20 receiver this year.  I'm not necessarily going to draft him as the 20th receiver if I can get him as the 25th.

Might want to temper your enthusiasm for any Cleveland player. They paid a king's ransom for a QB who might not play, alienated the other starter, upset the league's compensation structure, pissed off owners, players, fans, alike. Pretty messy situation. I would rather target a M. Pittman from Indy than Cooper. Just my opinion.

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