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polecatt

Dynasty Trade

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I have this potential deal, 95% sure I'm gonna accept it, but would like to ask the board...

I have an offer, to trade Stefon Diggs and Antonio Gibson, for Justin Jefferson.

My RBs will be trash after this, but my WRs and Flex will be Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and CeeDee Lamb...

Jefferson is arguably the top dynasty WR

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tough call.

if you knew Diggs would stay healthy you would be better off keeping him

but his problem is he tends to get dinged up a lot.

my guess is he has one more huge season in him.  maybe 2 and then hes done.  I suspect he will not have a super long career.  32 or 33 years old tops.

that said hes not that old.  27 or 28 I think.  so not over the hill either.

gibson is a good, but not great RB but hes still young.   and Jefferson is great, young and still seems healthy.   

I'd probably do the deal to get him.   I dont like the fact hes your last good RB but if you have the resources to draft the top rookie RB's you may be able to mitigate that somewhat.

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Who else do you have at rb? Have you completed a rookie draft? 

Jefferson is five years younger so that’s a bonus. 

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I don't have much of anything else at RB, I have Melvin Gordon, James Robinson, and Chuba Hubbard. The latter two will almost certainly get dropped, Gordon is about 50/50.

Our draft isn't until late August, so I will have to go RB heavy. I certainly won't get anything great, but I'm just looking for serviceable.

I started a rebuilding process two seasons ago, and as a result, I have Justin Herbert, the 3 WRs I mentioned above, Jerry Jeudy and Kyle Pitts at TE.

I have learned in dynasty, don't get attached to RBs. Just jump on them in the rookie draft and on waivers early in the season

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3 hours ago, polecatt said:

I have this potential deal, 95% sure I'm gonna accept it, but would like to ask the board...

I have an offer, to trade Stefon Diggs and Antonio Gibson, for Justin Jefferson.

My RBs will be trash after this, but my WRs and Flex will be Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and CeeDee Lamb...

Jefferson is arguably the top dynasty WR

I wouldn't do it.  Diggs isn't chopped liver and won't be all that far behind Jefferson.  Based on the rest of your RB crew, the drop off from Gibson to Gordon is a lot greater than the upgrade from Diggs to Jefferson.  And really, the drop off from Gibson to Gordon isn't the issue.  If you have to start 2 RB's, the drop off is from Gibson to Robinson or Hubbard, because now they have to start instead of being on your bench.

One projection I saw had Jefferson as a 3.7 point per week advantage of Diggs... that same source had Gibson as a 4.5 ppw advantage over Robinson and 9.5 ppw advantage over Hubbard.

Something else to consider, Kirk Cousins is a free agent after the 2023 season.  He'll also be 36 in 2024.  What's year 3 and 4 look like for Jefferson?  Diggs is under contract through 2027, his age 34 season.  No, he won't be a stud that long, but both he and Allen are locked in for a very long time.  His years 3 and 4 look a lot more clear than Jefferson's.

Unless you're picking #1 or #2 in the draft, I'm not so sure that you're going to get an RB that's "serviceable".  Cook will be Montgomery's backup.  Pierce is on a terrible team and may not even start.  Robinson is better for you if he's a handcuff to Gibson.  White's not going to be anything special and Spiller is going to be a part-time guy as well.  There are no starters who will give you at least RB2 numbers in this draft after Hall and Walker.

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I would do it. When you can get the best player in a 2 for 1 it usually works out eventually 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I wouldn't do it.  Diggs isn't chopped liver and won't be all that far behind Jefferson.  Based on the rest of your RB crew, the drop off from Gibson to Gordon is a lot greater than the upgrade from Diggs to Jefferson.  And really, the drop off from Gibson to Gordon isn't the issue.  If you have to start 2 RB's, the drop off is from Gibson to Robinson or Hubbard, because now they have to start instead of being on your bench.

One projection I saw had Jefferson as a 3.7 point per week advantage of Diggs... that same source had Gibson as a 4.5 ppw advantage over Robinson and 9.5 ppw advantage over Hubbard.

Something else to consider, Kirk Cousins is a free agent after the 2023 season.  He'll also be 36 in 2024.  What's year 3 and 4 look like for Jefferson?  Diggs is under contract through 2027, his age 34 season.  No, he won't be a stud that long, but both he and Allen are locked in for a very long time.  His years 3 and 4 look a lot more clear than Jefferson's.

Unless you're picking #1 or #2 in the draft, I'm not so sure that you're going to get an RB that's "serviceable".  Cook will be Montgomery's backup.  Pierce is on a terrible team and may not even start.  Robinson is better for you if he's a handcuff to Gibson.  White's not going to be anything special and Spiller is going to be a part-time guy as well.  There are no starters who will give you at least RB2 numbers in this draft after Hall and Walker.

this is a well thought out answer.

the lack of depth at RB does likely mean your team is worse in the short term if you make the deal.

and there is something to be said about both QB and WR being locked in for a long time.  but cousins has said he wants another contract to stay in Minny and did a somewhat team friendly one year extension to his original deal to help them on the cap.  so Im not sure thats an issue.   its worth considering for sure.

but I agree. the dropoff isnt huge from jefferson to diggs. isnt huge.    it only becomes huge if one becomes injured.   Diggs isnt a WR who performs well while injured and he does get dinged up from time to time.

I think durability is a minor issue with diggs.

but as previously mentioned usually the person getting the best player in the deal wins eventually and in this case you are getting a young player who will be very good for a long time.

if you dont think you are competitive this year anyhow, then you make the deal.

if you think you have a shot at the title this year, you may wanna stand pat.  replacing the RB may be a difficult task and TBay isnt wrong when about the dynasty RB's.  they are tough to replace and if you are not drafting top 3 or 4 you are unlikely to get one who will help you this year.

still a tough call. and you know your chances of doing well this year better than I do.   

if you do this deal it is with an eye on being a championship team in 2-3 years.   if you dont do the deal its because you think your window to win is open now.

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5 hours ago, polecatt said:

My RBs will be trash after this

If it's any consolation, they were trash before this, too.

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I'd do it.  10 years of Jefferson is better than 1 maybe 2 years of Gibson and 4 years of diggs.

The dynasty drafts are going wide receiver heavy, so even if you have a late pick, you can get a guy like James Cook and guys like Rachaad White, Dameon Pierce, and Tyler Allegier are going pretty late and they'll likely be serviceable for you.

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I wouldn't do it.  Diggs isn't chopped liver and won't be all that far behind Jefferson.  Based on the rest of your RB crew, the drop off from Gibson to Gordon is a lot greater than the upgrade from Diggs to Jefferson.  And really, the drop off from Gibson to Gordon isn't the issue.  If you have to start 2 RB's, the drop off is from Gibson to Robinson or Hubbard, because now they have to start instead of being on your bench.

One projection I saw had Jefferson as a 3.7 point per week advantage of Diggs... that same source had Gibson as a 4.5 ppw advantage over Robinson and 9.5 ppw advantage over Hubbard.

Something else to consider, Kirk Cousins is a free agent after the 2023 season.  He'll also be 36 in 2024.  What's year 3 and 4 look like for Jefferson?  Diggs is under contract through 2027, his age 34 season.  No, he won't be a stud that long, but both he and Allen are locked in for a very long time.  His years 3 and 4 look a lot more clear than Jefferson's.

Unless you're picking #1 or #2 in the draft, I'm not so sure that you're going to get an RB that's "serviceable".  Cook will be Montgomery's backup.  Pierce is on a terrible team and may not even start.  Robinson is better for you if he's a handcuff to Gibson.  White's not going to be anything special and Spiller is going to be a part-time guy as well.  There are no starters who will give you at least RB2 numbers in this draft after Hall and Walker.

Question, why is Cook backing up Montgomery, and why would J Robinson of the Jags be a good handcuff to Gibson with the Skins? 

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4 hours ago, polecatt said:

I don't have much of anything else at RB, I have Melvin Gordon, James Robinson, and Chuba Hubbard. The latter two will almost certainly get dropped, Gordon is about 50/50.

Our draft isn't until late August, so I will have to go RB heavy. I certainly won't get anything great, but I'm just looking for serviceable.

I started a rebuilding process two seasons ago, and as a result, I have Justin Herbert, the 3 WRs I mentioned above, Jerry Jeudy and Kyle Pitts at TE.

I have learned in dynasty, don't get attached to RBs. Just jump on them in the rookie draft and on waivers early in the season

Hey good job that’s a very good looking dynasty team, I think I would do it.  

I think B Robinson is going to be a bother to Gibson owners, and plus they did keep Mckissic. 

I like Jefferson over Diggs for the long haul.  

Good luck in the rookie draft. 

 

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You haven't said how big the league is, and what you have for draft picks?

 

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Considering what you said you have at rb I wouldn't do the deal. Yeah Gibson isn't a world beaters but he's a little more than serviceable. On.papaer his QB.situarion in Washungton is better than it was last year and I hope for the Commanders sake it is. McKissic.and rookie Brian Robinson.will eat up some touches. Yet what you would be left with if you do the trade for Jefferson he's.not gonna make up the difference in production that you'd get.from.Diggs and Gibson.

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47 minutes ago, DocNiner said:

Considering what you said you have at rb I wouldn't do the deal. Yeah Gibson isn't a world beaters but he's a little more than serviceable. On.papaer his QB.situarion in Washungton is better than it was last year and I hope for the Commanders sake it is. McKissic.and rookie Brian Robinson.will eat up some touches. Yet what you would be left with if you do the trade for Jefferson he's.not gonna make up the difference in production that you'd get.from.Diggs and Gibson.

I disagree 

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On 5/27/2022 at 11:21 AM, polecatt said:

I have this potential deal, 95% sure I'm gonna accept it, but would like to ask the board...

I have an offer, to trade Stefon Diggs and Antonio Gibson, for Justin Jefferson.

My RBs will be trash after this, but my WRs and Flex will be Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and CeeDee Lamb...

Jefferson is arguably the top dynasty WR

No brainer IMO for dynasty.  Taylor, Jefferson and Chase are the top three dynasty assets currently.   Losing Gibson is worth the upgrade from Diggs to Jefferson in dynasty.

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On 6/7/2022 at 11:44 AM, DocNiner said:

Considering what you said you have at rb I wouldn't do the deal. Yeah Gibson isn't a world beaters but he's a little more than serviceable. On.papaer his QB.situarion in Washungton is better than it was last year and I hope for the Commanders sake it is. McKissic.and rookie Brian Robinson.will eat up some touches. Yet what you would be left with if you do the trade for Jefferson he's.not gonna make up the difference in production that you'd get.from.Diggs and Gibson.

well, worth noting, the stats of the RB tend to show how the team is doing.

if the Team does better, I'd normally expect the RB stats will also improve.

so the question you need to ask yourself is this:

Will the Washington team be better than it was last year?

 

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23 hours ago, e-factor said:

No brainer IMO for dynasty.  Taylor, Jefferson and Chase are the top three dynasty assets currently.   Losing Gibson is worth the upgrade from Diggs to Jefferson in dynasty.

That's how I was looking at it too.

I could get maybe 2-3 seasons out of Gibson as a RB2, and maybe 2-3 out of Diggs as a WR1. That's about the best case scenario.

Jefferson is arguably as valuable a dynasty asset as there is today. Like you said, no worse than top 3. He should be a strong WR1 for 5+ years

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well, in most fantasy trades, the person who gets the best player usually wins the trade.

if you make this deal you're just gonna need to make more moves to get another RB.   Thats all there is to it.

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12 hours ago, polecatt said:

That's how I was looking at it too.

I could get maybe 2-3 seasons out of Gibson as a RB2, and maybe 2-3 out of Diggs as a WR1. That's about the best case scenario.

Jefferson is arguably as valuable a dynasty asset as there is today. Like you said, no worse than top 3. He should be a strong WR1 for 5+ years

I loved Gibson going into last year, but not so much now.  He had some good games last year when his volume was high, but with McKissic back and drafting Robinson and touting him as the goalline back, I am worried about him in 2022.   He may still be an RB2, but I see him as a lower one vs a higher one.

Love Diggs too, but Jefferson will be elite for a long time.

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4 hours ago, e-factor said:

I loved Gibson going into last year, but not so much now.  He had some good games last year when his volume was high, but with McKissic back and drafting Robinson and touting him as the goalline back, I am worried about him in 2022.   He may still be an RB2, but I see him as a lower one vs a higher one.

Love Diggs too, but Jefferson will be elite for a long time.

I think he was actually #9 in standard scoring (#8 in PPR)  last year.    

On a bad team thats actually pretty good.  Usually the RB stats are reflective of how the team is doing as a whole.  so he put these numbers up with no garbage time carries to speak of (you dont get garbage time carries when the team is losing)

I acknowledge some players ranked higher got hurt which contributed to the result but that happens every year.

If Washington can actually become a good team at some point in the near future, he could actually turn into a solid top RB.

Problem is I dont have a whole lot of faith in that organization. I think its a train wreck haha.

so take that for what you will.   I agree.  right now he is probably a RB2.  High end RB2 but still a RB2.

 

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If Robinson becomes the goal line rb it will be hard for Gibson to end up high rb2.  Low rb2-rb3 going forward.  

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