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wolves111

Justin Jefferson or Najee Harris?

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In a ten team, ppr re-draft I'm picking at #7. The rankings for this league have Harris at #7, Jefferson at #8. Been doing this league long enough to know most owners will rely on the suggested rankings rather than do their own. They will no doubt both be available when I pick. Jefferson might be a top 1-2 WR. Harris will probably be the centerpiece of the Pittsburgh offense. Since RB's are usually valued over RB's at their skill level it presents an interesting choice. 

Who does everyone think is the wiser pick?

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Full ppr last season Jefferson avg 19 per game Harris 17.  I think Harris is going to have a rougher season, I’m taking Jefferson.  

It’s only a ten team league so it’s very small, plenty of Rbs on the turn, but you won’t get a shot at a wr of Jefferson caliber.  

Thanks 

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9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Full ppr last season Jefferson avg 19 per game Harris 17.  I think Harris is going to have a rougher season, I’m taking Jefferson.  

It’s only a ten team league so it’s very small, plenty of Rbs on the turn, but you won’t get a shot at a wr of Jefferson caliber.  

Thanks 

Yeah, very good points. I usually ask myself which player I would want in a trade. Jefferson for Harris? I'd probably opt for Jefferson.

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I would take Jefferson and not think twice about it.

Outside of Johnathan Taylor, I'm not sure there is an RB I would take over Jefferson

The odds that Harris is injured or tanks is much higher than it is he will outperform Jefferson at a level that will make the difference significant.

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If the 3rd-best player on the board drops to you at #7, you take him.

If he doesn't, then maybe you could think about Jefferson.

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As much I love me some WR I think Harris is the pick.  What kind of draft is it straight or snake?

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I would rather have a rb, but at number seven that’s to high this season for Harris.  

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9 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

As much I love me some WR I think Harris is the pick.  What kind of draft is it straight or snake?

It's a snake draft. 

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10 hours ago, AxeElf said:

If the 3rd-best player on the board drops to you at #7, you take him.

If he doesn't, then maybe you could think about Jefferson.

Interesting. Please list your top 7 picks.

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4 hours ago, wolves111 said:

As for CMC the injuries make him a big risk. The reward however would be substantial if he returns to form. I'd take him at pick #5 in round #1 after Taylor, Henry, Harris, and Ekeler.

 

7 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Interesting. Please list your top 7 picks.

What's so interesting?  You rank Harris #3 on your own board as well, apparently.

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24 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

What's so interesting?  You rank Harris #3 on your own board as well, apparently.

How did you come to that conclusion? You really are a jerkoff.

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1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

How did you come to that conclusion?

I read your post listing Taylor, Henry and Harris as the top 3 players on the board; you know, the one I quoted above.

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30 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I read your post listing Taylor, Henry and Harris as the top 3 players on the board; you know, the one I quoted above.

Yeah, well maybe my rankings aren't absolute. Maybe I'm seeking opinions other than my own to see if I'm missing something. Why is he ranked in the league rankings lower than I ranked him? Maybe I wanted to see where you ranked him? Maybe several people have suggested to me that Jefferson is the better pick if in fact they'reboth there.

Maybe I should just block you this season and save myself the aggravation.

 

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1 minute ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah, well maybe my rankings aren't absolute. Maybe I'm seeking opinions other than my own to see if I'm missing something. Why is he ranked in the league rankings lower than I ranked him? Maybe I wanted to see where you ranked him? Maybe several people have suggested to me that Jefferson is the better pick if in fact they'reboth there.

Maybe I should just block you this season and save myself the aggravation.

 

Last statement is the way to go.  

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34 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Maybe I should just block you this season and save myself the winning.

FTFY

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On 5/28/2022 at 12:58 PM, wolves111 said:

In a ten team, ppr re-draft I'm picking at #7. The rankings for this league have Harris at #7, Jefferson at #8. Been doing this league long enough to know most owners will rely on the suggested rankings rather than do their own. They will no doubt both be available when I pick. Jefferson might be a top 1-2 WR. Harris will probably be the centerpiece of the Pittsburgh offense. Since RB's are usually valued over RB's at their skill level it presents an interesting choice. 

Who does everyone think is the wiser pick?

Harris... every time.  Good WR's can be easily taken throughout the draft... after the top 5 RB's?  Good luck.

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Ppr last season based on avg per game , Jefferson was 5th in the wr slot, Harris was 8 th in rb slot, I think Harris falls a little bit more, he might not even be a top ten rb performer based on avg per game.   

I think Jefferson is in the top three in the wr slot.   

 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Harris... every time.  Good WR's can be easily taken throughout the draft... after the top 5 RB's?  Good luck.

Yeah, I find myself chasing RB's on the waiver wire every year so it makes sense to take the RB. I have two concerns however one of which is Pitts QB. It can be overcome but who knows. Jefferson seems like the safer pick but then the RB becomes an issue. If I could take Harris and Cee Dee Lamb as opposed to Jefferson and Swift I'd consider that. That's not to say Detroit QB isn't ideal either.

Most probably it will sort itself out over the summer as injuries pile up in training camps.

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34 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Ppr last season based on avg per game , Jefferson was 5th in the wr slot, Harris was 8 th in rb slot, I think Harris falls a little bit more, he might not even be a top ten rb performer based on avg per game.   

I think Jefferson is in the top three in the wr slot.   

 

If the team finishes poorly, that will reflect in the RB stats.

anything worse than 8-9 for the team, the RB likely is taking a hit on the stats. 

there is a fair chance his stats will drop even if he himself plays better.    doesnt matter how good you play, if you are down 2+ TD's going into the second half, your Run game more or less disappears.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

anything worse than 8-9 for the team, the RB likely is taking a hit on the stats. 

Unless he catches a lot of balls. Najee caught 74 last year, as a rook...

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27 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah, I find myself chasing RB's on the waiver wire every year so it makes sense to take the RB. I have two concerns however one of which is Pitts QB. It can be overcome but who knows. Jefferson seems like the safer pick but then the RB becomes an issue. If I could take Harris and Cee Dee Lamb as opposed to Jefferson and Swift I'd consider that. That's not to say Detroit QB isn't ideal either.

Most probably it will sort itself out over the summer as injuries pile up in training camps.

Ten team ppr league, plenty of Rbs will be available at the turn.  

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21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

If the team finishes poorly, that will reflect in the RB stats.

anything worse than 8-9 for the team, the RB likely is taking a hit on the stats. 

there is a fair chance his stats will drop even if he himself plays better.    doesnt matter how good you play, if you are down 2+ TD's going into the second half, your Run game more or less disappears.

 

 

He’s a very good ppr rb Ray, let’s not forget that. 

But he also had 381 touches last season to get into the top five in total points in ppr.  

Thats a big amount of to touches.   I expect that Tomlin will suffer his first losing season, and last season Harris only avg 3.9 yards per rush. I see less consistency with their offense despite the limitations that Big Ben had last season.  So I expect less opportunities for Harris overall.  

Like I said based on avg per game ppr , I think he’s out of the top ten.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

He’s a very good ppr rb Ray, let’s not forget that. 

But he also had 381 touches last season to get into the top five in total points in ppr.  

Thats a big amount of to touches.   I expect that Tomlin will suffer his first losing season, and last season Harris only avg 3.9 yards per rush. I see less consistency with their offense despite the limitations that Big Ben had last season.  So I expect less opportunities for Harris overall.  

Like I said based on avg per game ppr , I think he’s out of the top ten.  

I agree.   offense is not as good.   I think it hurts him for TD's more than yardage.

 

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Unless he catches a lot of balls. Najee caught 74 last year, as a rook...

this is a nice mitigating factor.   I like him long term.  But when drafting him you had to know once Big Ben Retired that there would be a dip in stats for everyone.

Will the new QB (whoever that may be) checkdown to the RB?   we dont know.    a different style of QB sometimes means opportunity for some players and less opportunity for others.

in the end, I think you draft him as a top 10 RB in PPR (especially keeper leagues) but in standard leagues (especially redraft) I think you slide him down your board a bit.

I figure once the QB situation stabilizes his stats will firm up as well.   so this is just a bump in the road for his career and I think he has a lengthy career if he stays healthy. 

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Just read that Harris is 15 lbs bigger.  

That extra weight prepares him for the pounding he’s going to take, but I wonder how that extra weight might affect his elusiveness. 

 

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29 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Just read that Harris is 15 lbs bigger.  

That extra weight prepares him for the pounding he’s going to take, but I wonder how that extra weight might affect his elusiveness. 

 

That is a fair amount of weight for one offseason.

I had hoped hed put on 5 or 10 pounds.   Hopefully his speed and elusiveness does not suffer as a result of the weight gain.

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2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah, I find myself chasing RB's on the waiver wire every year so it makes sense to take the RB. I have two concerns however one of which is Pitts QB. It can be overcome but who knows. Jefferson seems like the safer pick but then the RB becomes an issue. If I could take Harris and Cee Dee Lamb as opposed to Jefferson and Swift I'd consider that. That's not to say Detroit QB isn't ideal either.

Most probably it will sort itself out over the summer as injuries pile up in training camps.

I think other RB's that aren't versatile, yeah, I could understand the concern, but a guy who might get 6 or 7 receptions?  I'm less concerned.

He might get 40 yards on 17 carries, but he also could have 9 catches for 70 yards.  I'm not concerned how a 20 point day in obtained because I got 20 points.

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Harris had 2 20 plus point ppr ff games in his last ten, he had 5 in his first seven.  

I think the second half of last season will be his norm, and probably even a little less than that this season.  

 

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3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Harris had 2 20 plus point ppr ff games in his last ten, he had 5 in his first seven.  

I think the second half of last season will be his norm, and probably even a little less than that this season.  

 

I think it really depends on how effective pickett or Trubisky is at QB.   if they are not good enough teams will stack the box to stop Naj (as they should) and his numbers will then suffer.

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With what Najee Harris is capable of doing I.would normally want him over Jefferson. You have to look at who's going to be available at both RB and WR for your 2nd round pick. I have no doubt Jefferson wl be a top5 WR this year but the quality and.numberof true rb1's will drop even going jnto the 2nd round. One concern I have with Harris will be his O-line and.which one of Trubisky or Pickett will be under center. Hopefully they'll get improved play from the O-line.                                                                                           While the likes of getting WR Jefferson who could lead the leaguein receiving, for me I would go with RB Najee Harris. We know he's gonna touch the ball a ton and while Jefferson may as well I think the safer pick is to go with Pittsburgh's runningback.0

 

 

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Yeah no,I would Jefferson, ten team plenty of Harries still available 

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On 5/29/2022 at 4:56 PM, wolves111 said:

Yeah, well maybe my rankings aren't absolute. Maybe I'm seeking opinions other than my own to see if I'm missing something. Why is he ranked in the league rankings lower than I ranked him? Maybe I wanted to see where you ranked him? Maybe several people have suggested to me that Jefferson is the better pick if in fact they'reboth there.

Maybe I should just block you this season and save myself the aggravation.

 

Wow, the Elf is right…he quoted you.  And it’s early June…most of these opinions will change by the end of August.

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4 hours ago, JagFan said:

Wow, the Elf is right…he quoted you.  And it’s early June…most of these opinions will change by the end of August.

opinions always change based on offseason developments with players and team moves.

Totally normal.

you gotta remember people made their calls a while back based on info that is out of date today.  you expect most of your rankings to be relatively unchanged by end of season but up to a quarter of your rankings will need to change.

what we as fantasy footballers need to do is to make sure we are flexible enough to change as that information changes.

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I lost the fantasy football championship on the last run by Najee Harris.  That hurt.

 

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On 6/5/2022 at 11:56 AM, Ray_T said:

you expect most of your rankings to be relatively unchanged by end of season but up to a quarter of your rankings will need to change.

I expect Tampa to be top 3 in pass attempts, yards, and TD's for the 5th season in a row.

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On 6/5/2022 at 8:56 AM, Ray_T said:

opinions always change based on offseason developments with players and team moves.

Totally normal.

you gotta remember people made their calls a while back based on info that is out of date today.  you expect most of your rankings to be relatively unchanged by end of season but up to a quarter of your rankings will need to change.

what we as fantasy footballers need to do is to make sure we are flexible enough to change as that information changes.

Agree, their is preseason ranking, and then once the season is about four weeks old, reworking those rankings.  I find I don’t win my league cause of my draft only, it’s the reworking my rankings as the season goes forward to gain that edge over the other owners. Some Ff owners tend to have a hard time doing that, and hang on to a player longer then they should, reducing the value of a return in a trade.

 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I expect Tampa to be top 3 in pass attempts, yards, and TD's for the 5th season in a row.

sure. and when the offense is operating as it is supposed to the only changes to the lineup are due to cap management issues.

but most teams are not like Tampa.    most are more active in free agency and need players drafted within the last 2 years to step up and show they can play.

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14 hours ago, Ray_T said:

sure. and when the offense is operating as it is supposed to the only changes to the lineup are due to cap management issues.

but most teams are not like Tampa.    most are more active in free agency and need players drafted within the last 2 years to step up and show they can play.

Agreed.  Yeah, I was just being funny with them specifically.  That said, good QB or bad, the system/offense is the system/offense... be it Dirk Koetter with Fitzpatrick and Winston, Arians with Winston, Arians with Brady or Bowles with Brady, nothing has changed.  This is the style that Tampa runs.  I think there's a lot of teams like that.  Generally, the stability of the situation at QB is usually the dictating characteristic of predictability.  For the most part, I expect my projections to remain the same, except for some massaging here and there,  for everyone who's in a static environment.  I think to your point, and I agree with it, that these situations aren't plentiful as the NFL is very volatile.  Teams that you'd have thought to be static last year like Green Bay and Dallas, aren't so this year.  I think in the NFC, you're looking at really, only Minnesota, Tampa, and LA who should be easy to project.  In the AFC, I think we're looking at really only Buffalo and Cincinnati who can be easy to project.  Well, there could be others like the Jets, Jags, Texans, Falcons, Bears, and Giants, where you expect them to suck (from a fantasy and NFL perspective), and they most likely will.

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Read that Harris and the Steelers having discussion about more of a limited role on certain  downs.  Fixed. 

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I'm not sure what Najee's role with curtains has to do with anything, but if Rotoworld reported it, it must be true. Personally, I think he should go with pleated curtains....

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1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I'm not sure what Najee's role with curtains has to do with anything, but if Rotoworld reported it, it must be true. Personally, I think he should go with pleated curtains....

ouch.

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