Zeke, Barkley, McCaffery studs or duds?

[polecatt 399]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, if you are drafting him later than the second half of round 2 thats the price you are paying.   RB2 value.

If I was suggesting he was an RB1 I'd be saying hes a first or early 2nd round pick.

Nobody here was suggesting that.

I figure he goes sometime in the 2nd, but thats not where I'd draft him.  as per my earlier post.....hes a 3rd round pick for me.   That places him firmly in RB2 territory.   the bonus (if you get him at that price) is he can still give you the RB1 upside.

As for being a plodder, he will be there at some point.   hes still young enough (26) that I wouldnt put him in that category yet.   There is a chance he still has one more big year left in him.  but its a speculative buy if you are paying more than a 3rd round pick for him.

I think there is a good chance of a bounceback year.   the only question I have is whether it is going to be a small bounceback or a large one.  I think he will be better than last year (unless he gets hurt again)

Okay, fair enough.

When you say bounceback, it kind of sounds like he's gonna go back to the Zeke of 3-4 seasons ago or something. He's just not that player any more. His burst is mostly gone. Sure he can still break one for 25 yards or something every now and then, but he's not breaking any 60 yard TDs unless something really crazy happens.

Will he be better than last season though?

I think he may. A little bit. At least in yards. He barely topped 1000, and I could see him getting 1150-1200 or so if he's healthy all season. I don't see more than 2-3 100 yd games though.

I could perhaps see a slight uptick in his 47 catches for 287 yards, maybe something like 50+ for 350 or so.

I don't see him scoring more than the 12 TDs he scored last season.

If he had that kind of season, it would put him in the lower range RB1 area. That's probably about what Joe Mixon will do.

I think he's likely gonna get banged up again though. He may not miss many games but it will slow him down.

Of course the real question is, what will Tony Pollard do?

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

Of course the real question is, what will Tony Pollard do?

This is the main reason I am not paying more than a 3rd rounder for Zeke.

if pollard didnt exist, Zeke is in full bounceback mode to RB1.   but Pollard will take at least 40% of the touches keeping Zeke from getting too far into RB1 territory.  but if he gets dinged up hes lower than RB1 level.  possibly even low end RB2.

if it turns into a 50-50 split both backs will be RB2.   and not even a high end RB2. 

Thats the main risk here..   I dont think that happens but its certainly possible.  Especially if Zeke isnt playing up to the standard we have been seeing him play in the past.

 

 

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, polecatt said:

Of course the real question is, what will Tony Pollard do?

 

18 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

This is the main reason I am not paying more than a 3rd rounder for Zeke.

if pollard didnt exist, Zeke is in full bounceback mode to RB1.   but Pollard will take at least 40% of the touches keeping Zeke from getting too far into RB1 territory.  but if he gets dinged up hes lower than RB1 level.  possibly even low end RB2.

if it turns into a 50-50 split both backs will be RB2.   and not even a high end RB2. 

Thats the main risk here..   I dont think that happens but its certainly possible.  Especially if Zeke isnt playing up to the standard we have been seeing him play in the past.

There are really only a literal handful of workhorse RBs remaining--Henry, Cook, Harris, Mixon, and Barkley--maybe to some extent Ekeler and Taylor--but I think we see a lot of Chuba Hubbard along with McCaffrey just to keep him healthy, and just about every other back in the league is in some type of a timeshare, many of which could be 60/40 type splits if not 50/50 or even 45/35/20.

So there's room for Zeke to be a top 10/12 RB1 again, even if he's not a traditional "workhorse" back.  His goalline role should keep him in that conversation at least in standard-scoring leagues, given the Dallas offense's potential to be in the red zone often.

[wolves111 69]

Taylor had 332 carries and 40 receptions. Yeah, he may be to some extent considered a workhorse back.

[AxeElf 787]

Always appreciate the confirmation!