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wolves111

Adams, Hill, Brown: QB's Effect on Their Performance

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So, the three WR's (Adams, Hill & A.J. Brown) are getting paid big coin on new teams, with different QB's. In Browns case he goes from a rushing offense and Tannehill to the Eagles rushing offense and Hurts. Adams loses a HOF passer and reunites with his college QB who arguably has been pedestrian so far in his career. And Hill is leaving a superb passing offense with a likely future HOF QB to Tua and Miami.

Last year at this time Adams and Hill were 1st round picks in redrafts and Brown, although slightly lower, was still a top 5-7 WR. This year?

Where do you rank these guy's now, and will the deals that they signed force the teams to force feed the ball to them? And can their new QB's be successful? In Browns case it doesn't look promising for several reasons. One, the weakness in the Eagles' offense is their passing game. Brown might help but he'll be sharing targets with Smith and Goedert, while relying on a QB, Hurts, whose weakness is reading and reacting to the defense, not a great arm, and well the whole QB throwing the ball thing. Tannehill wasn't much better but at least Brown had Henry to take the focus off of him and no other receiving threats to take his targets.

We already discussed Hill and Tua and if nothing else I think we all agreed there will be challenges for them. Perhaps the one with the best chance of coming close to his usual production is Adams. Carr is no Rodgers, but I think he's clearly better than Hurts and Tua.

Where you taking these guys in a redraft this year?

 

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Adams late round one, early round two. 

Hill round three. 

A Brown not really interested.  

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I think Adams will still be a top 5 guy, but won't be a beast like he has been of late.  Off the top of my head, I'd say Hill is a 2nd round guy who's probably a solid WR2 with low end WR1 potential.  Brown is probably a 4th round guy who will probably be just that, a 4th round guy.  He may crack the top 20.

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Round two seems awfully early to take a wr2.  

I don’t understand why Brown would go so early, I’m not a fan. He was 22nd best avg per game 1/2 ppr last season, I don’t see that improving this next season.  

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I wouldn't want to take any of them in the 1st round.

In the 2nd round I could see going after Hill or Adams. Both move down a few spots though

AJ Brown, with his new situation, not sure Hurts is an upgrade at QB, and his injury history, maybe in the 3rd

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3rd for A Brown with Hurts as his Qb? Mm sorry I think that’s to much.  

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3 hours ago, polecatt said:

AJ Brown, with his new situation, not sure Hurts is an upgrade at QB, and his injury history, maybe in the 3rd

for sure.

Tanehill had a bad season by his standards last year and threw for like 3800 yards give or take.

hurts threw for 3100 give or take.

Hurts was the better fantasy QB due to the rush yards, but Tanehill is the better actual QB.   With that being said, AJ Brown will be hard pressed to get 1000 yards with Hurts throwing him the ball.  to me, that puts him in WR3 territory.   

so unless Minshew somehow gets the job as the starter, I wouldnt likely touch him in the first 6 rounds.   That likely means I wont get him and I'm ok with that.

Hill is still good enough to be a lock for 1000 yards even with Tua at QB.   but hes not a first round pick anymore.

Adams is interesting... he had a real connection with Carr in College.   I know people have said his pro career has been Meh, but look at who the guy has had for WR to throw to?

nobody of consequence until Renfrow broke out.   Ruggs showed signs of a breakout but then killed some people in a drunk driving accident.

bottom line is other than at TE this guy has had not much to throw to and still had a good year last year.   I dont know that he can duplicate what Rodgers had with him but I think the dropoff here will be less than it was for the other WR.   I am predicting a good year for Adams.   I probably wouldnt take him in round 1 but he is still in WR1 territory.

 

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7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

for sure.

Tanehill had a bad season by his standards last year and threw for like 3800 yards give or take.

hurts threw for 3100 give or take.

Hurts was the better fantasy QB due to the rush yards, but Tanehill is the better actual QB.   With that being said, AJ Brown will be hard pressed to get 1000 yards with Hurts throwing him the ball.  to me, that puts him in WR3 territory.   

so unless Minshew somehow gets the job as the starter, I wouldnt likely touch him in the first 6 rounds.   That likely means I wont get him and I'm ok with that.

Hill is still good enough to be a lock for 1000 yards even with Tua at QB.   but hes not a first round pick anymore.

Adams is interesting... he had a real connection with Carr in College.   I know people have said his pro career has been Meh, but look at who the guy has had for WR to throw to?

nobody of consequence until Renfrow broke out.   Ruggs showed signs of a breakout but then killed some people in a drunk driving accident.

bottom line is other than at TE this guy has had not much to throw to and still had a good year last year.   I dont know that he can duplicate what Rodgers had with him but I think the dropoff here will be less than it was for the other WR.   I am predicting a good year for Adams.   I probably wouldnt take him in round 1 but he is still in WR1 territory.

 

All good points. It's hard to understand why Miami gave so much for Hill in terms of money and draft picks, knowing Tua is such a big question at QB. Maybe they see something we don't? On top of that they bring in a coach known for the run game, along with a couple of veteran RB's to implement his system. Very confusing. 

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2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

All good points. It's hard to understand why Miami gave so much for Hill in terms of money and draft picks, knowing Tua is such a big question at QB. Maybe they see something we don't? On top of that they bring in a coach known for the run game, along with a couple of veteran RB's to implement his system. Very confusing. 

maybe the thought is that Tua hasnt had an elite WR and they wanted to see what he could do with one on the team?

personally I think they could have done him (and the team) more good by shoring up the O line but that is just my opinion.

if he doesnt have time to throw the ball, Hill wont have time to get open.

I dont know where the line is at this year, but a couple years back they were awful.  then they drafted Tunsil and then the line was okay. then they traded tunsil.  I have to think the line play has regressed a bit since.

my guess is the line is average to below average.  but that is just a guess.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

maybe the thought is that Tua hasnt had an elite WR and they wanted to see what he could do with one on the team?

personally I think they could have done him (and the team) more good by shoring up the O line but that is just my opinion.

if he doesnt have time to throw the ball, Hill wont have time to get open.

I dont know where the line is at this year, but a couple years back they were awful.  then they drafted Tunsil and then the line was okay. then they traded tunsil.  I have to think the line play has regressed a bit since.

my guess is the line is average to below average.  but that is just a guess.

 

ok I googled it.  PFF has Miami as having the worst line in the NFL.

I figured they would have regressed but I didnt think it would go this bad this quickly.

so yeah, maybe not as good for results as we would have thought for Hill.  I still think he gets 1000 yards.    but it may be worth it to drop him a couple more spots due to the poor line.  Low end WR1 or high end WR2?

I'll have to think about where I 'll place him but the good news is hes someone elses keeper in my keeper league, so its not likely my problem.

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52 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok I googled it.  PFF has Miami as having the worst line in the NFL.

I figured they would have regressed but I didnt think it would go this bad this quickly.

so yeah, maybe not as good for results as we would have thought for Hill.  I still think he gets 1000 yards.    but it may be worth it to drop him a couple more spots due to the poor line.  Low end WR1 or high end WR2?

I'll have to think about where I 'll place him but the good news is hes someone elses keeper in my keeper league, so its not likely my problem.

All those resources used while the o-line gets ignored. They drafted two Lb's, a WR, and scrub QB this past draft. Traded a ton for Hill even though they drafted Waddle with a #1 pick last year. Their GM better not buy a house in the Miami area. He may not be there very long.

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1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

All those resources used while the o-line gets ignored. They drafted two Lb's, a WR, and scrub QB this past draft. Traded a ton for Hill even though they drafted Waddle with a #1 pick last year. Their GM better not buy a house in the Miami area. He may not be there very long.

it is quite possible that this is correct sir.

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Yeah but they have Hill. Lol. 

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56 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Yeah but they have Hill. Lol. 

a good WR is nice and all, but if the QB cant hold the ball long enough for him to get open, that Good WR isnt as useful as one would hope he would be.

So unless the Line in Miami improves, its not looking great.

but sometimes good coaching can fix line problems.  and there are a fair number of young players drafted recently so I'm willing to give them some latitude if they think they can coach them up.   but their ability to do this is what likely makes or breaks the management team in Miami over the next year or so.

If the line cant protect Tua, these moves could easily flop for them.

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That’s why I can’t buy Hill in the second round. 

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4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

That’s why I can’t buy Hill in the second round. 

Is that where his ADP is currently?

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3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Is that where his ADP is currently?

Yes

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4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Is that where his ADP is currently?

23.36 among live drafters, so very late 2nd in 12 teamers, early 3rd in 10 teamers.

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probably a half to a full round too early   but that can change.

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In isolation, I would take Hill in the 2nd.  But two plus Tua is four, so I'd take him in the fourth round.

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Hill is doing a great job with praising his new Qb.  

 

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I wouldn’t take any of the 3 before 4th round.  I’m more inclined to put a little more value on the opportunities their departures create from the teams they left… the GB RBs, Kelce / CEH, and what WRs seem to be building the best rapport with Rodgers and MaHomes during camp.  As for Ten, not interested in anyone except maybe Henry if he falls to the 2nd round.

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3 hours ago, JagFan said:

I wouldn’t take any of the 3 before 4th round.  I’m more inclined to put a little more value on the opportunities their departures create from the teams they left… the GB RBs, Kelce / CEH, and what WRs seem to be building the best rapport with Rodgers and MaHomes during camp.  As for Ten, not interested in anyone except maybe Henry if he falls to the 2nd round.

Adams will never make it three let alone round four. 

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2 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Adams will never make it three let alone round four. 

agreed.  hes going top 2 rounds.  

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7 hours ago, JagFan said:

I wouldn’t take any of the 3 before 4th round.  I’m more inclined to put a little more value on the opportunities their departures create from the teams they left… the GB RBs, Kelce / CEH, and what WRs seem to be building the best rapport with Rodgers and MaHomes during camp.  As for Ten, not interested in anyone except maybe Henry if he falls to the 2nd round.

How much more value to you give to Kelce, and A Jones, Dillon? What round would you draft those players? 

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On 6/12/2022 at 11:33 AM, weepaws said:

How much more value to you give to Kelce, and A Jones, Dillon? What round would you draft those players? 

Right now Kelce’s adp looks to be 14.  I think that’s about right, but I might move him up slightly to the 10-12 range.  Maybe higher in a TE mandatory league.

Jones adp looks to be in the mid-20s.  To me that’s probably about right given that his role probably changes the least.  Dillon is the one I think that benefits the most, especially in a PPR. In that situation I’d take him a good bit higher than his adp in the mid 50s.  Probably early to mid 30s.

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4 hours ago, JagFan said:

Right now Kelce’s adp looks to be 14.  I think that’s about right, but I might move him up slightly to the 10-12 range.  Maybe higher in a TE mandatory league.

Jones adp looks to be in the mid-20s.  To me that’s probably about right given that his role probably changes the least.  Dillon is the one I think that benefits the most, especially in a PPR. In that situation I’d take him a good bit higher than his adp in the mid 50s.  Probably early to mid 30s.

well, if his ADP is in the mid 50-s  why take him that early?  he may be worth drafting in the 30's but why not wait  a round and draft him in the 40's.   Thats early enough to make sure you get him, but late enough where you are getting a bargain.

I always say no need to pay the price of a Cadillac when you can get it for the price of a Honda Civic.   Just my 2 cents worth.

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I’m surprised by Dillon current ADP, I thought it would be higher.  I think it will change going forward. 

I think that Jones role will change some, I think he’ll be used even more in the passing game.  

Kelce mmm not really interesting based on his adp , that’s just to early for a te.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Kelce mmm not really interesting based on his adp , that’s just to early for a te.

how bout based on his age.   hes on the wrong side of 30 (32 I think)

most TE's dont do much past the age of 30 simply because the position is more physical as they do more blocking than a WR typically does.

but hes more of a pass catcher so that likely means less wear and tear, but I'm thinking there is likely going to be a regression starting soon.  if not this year then next year for sure.

What you dont want is to pay a first (or early second) for him and have him not be a top 2 or 3 TE.   at that point you have wasted a top pick.   for a pick at this point in the draft that player needs to give you an advantage over nearly every team you play at the position.

too risky given the price.  Love the player.  dont love the ADP and the price you need to pay to get him.

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On 6/8/2022 at 10:39 AM, Ray_T said:

ok I googled it.  PFF has Miami as having the worst line in the NFL.

I figured they would have regressed but I didnt think it would go this bad this quickly.

so yeah, maybe not as good for results as we would have thought for Hill.  I still think he gets 1000 yards.    but it may be worth it to drop him a couple more spots due to the poor line.  Low end WR1 or high end WR2?

I'll have to think about where I 'll place him but the good news is hes someone elses keeper in my keeper league, so its not likely my problem.

 

They are below average, but not the worst according to pff.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-unit-rankings-tiers-2022

 

23. Miami Dolphins

Projected Starting Lineup

The Dolphins' offensive line should be massively improved in 2022, but that’s after the unit was one of the NFL's worst in 2021. Terron Armstead is a top-five left tackle when healthy and immediately brings stability to the group. With so many draft picks invested in the rest of the offensive line in recent years, there are going to be a lot of training camp competitions to shake out this eventual lineup.

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1 hour ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

They are below average, but not the worst according to pff.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-unit-rankings-tiers-2022

 

23. Miami Dolphins

Projected Starting Lineup

The Dolphins' offensive line should be massively improved in 2022, but that’s after the unit was one of the NFL's worst in 2021. Terron Armstead is a top-five left tackle when healthy and immediately brings stability to the group. With so many draft picks invested in the rest of the offensive line in recent years, there are going to be a lot of training camp competitions to shake out this eventual lineup.

ok this is new.

 

I googled and got end of year rankings and Miami ranked last.  but your ranking appears to be projected ranking for next year.

I do like the Armstead move.   so yeah, the line wont be as bad as it was.  But the team likely needs one more player to step up before we see a turnaround for a line that was this bad.

Maybe they think they can do it with coaching.  they have drafted a couple of these guys fairly recently so there is definitely some potential for a turnaround.

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