First Mock - Late RB Value

[AxeElf 787]

I drew the 3rd slot in my first mock of the season--12 teams.  I was excited to have a shot at drafting Derrick Henry--but at the last minute, after seeing some of the RB values in the 3rd-5th rounds, I decided to buck the system, and much to my own personal chagrin at passing on Henry, I went with Justin Jefferson in Round 1, and Deebo Samuel fell to me at 2.10.

I was kind of targeting Barkley in the third, but he fell around the turn so I went with Zeke instead.  At the 4/5 turn, I had my pick of Dobbins or D.Harris; I thought taking Dobbins first gave me the best chance of getting them both, but this time Harris fell around the turn so I pivoted to Mahomes, settling for Melvin Gordon and Cordarrelle Patterson to shore up the RB corps, and handcuffing Dobbins with Gus Edwards late.  I'm hoping for good volume for Juju (and good mojo with Mahomes) and the other possession receivers on my bench (Renfrow, Woods, Landry).

At TE it was pretty much down to Ertz or Gesicki by the time I started thinking about the position, but with all the weapons in Miami now and problems for Hopkins, I thought Ertz was the better bet.  I stuck with Arizona for my D and K as well.  They were a pretty good D last year, and now they get Geno/Lock and Seattle twice, and hopefully Trey Lance twice as well (not to mention favorable QB matchups against Carolina, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Atlanta).

1.03 Justin Jefferson (Min - WR)
2.10 Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
3.03 Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)
4.10 J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB)
5.03 Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)
6.10 JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC - WR)
7.03 Melvin Gordon III (Den - RB)
8.10 Hunter Renfrow (LV - WR)
9.03 Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl - RB)
10.10 Zach Ertz (Ari - TE)
11.03 Robert Woods (Ten - WR)
12.10 Gus Edwards (Bal - RB)
13.03 Jarvis Landry (NO - WR)
14.10 Arizona (Ari - DEF)
15.03 Matt Prater (Ari - K)

The thing I hate most about mocks is doing well and wishing it were a real team...

[makindollaz 40]

In 12 team redrafts, the only RB’s I’m looking at taking in the 1st are Taylor, Ekeler, Henry & Najee.  And after Taylor, those other RB’s will depend on which WR’s are available.

[Ray_T 589]

5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I drew the 3rd slot in my first mock of the season--12 teams.  I was excited to have a shot at drafting Derrick Henry--but at the last minute, after seeing some of the RB values in the 3rd-5th rounds, I decided to buck the system, and much to my own personal chagrin at passing on Henry, I went with Justin Jefferson in Round 1, and Deebo Samuel fell to me at 2.10.

I was kind of targeting Barkley in the third, but he fell around the turn so I went with Zeke instead.  At the 4/5 turn, I had my pick of Dobbins or D.Harris; I thought taking Dobbins first gave me the best chance of getting them both, but this time Harris fell around the turn so I pivoted to Mahomes, settling for Melvin Gordon and Cordarrelle Patterson to shore up the RB corps, and handcuffing Dobbins with Gus Edwards late.  I'm hoping for good volume for Juju (and good mojo with Mahomes) and the other possession receivers on my bench (Renfrow, Woods, Landry).

At TE it was pretty much down to Ertz or Gesicki by the time I started thinking about the position, but with all the weapons in Miami now and problems for Hopkins, I thought Ertz was the better bet.  I stuck with Arizona for my D and K as well.  They were a pretty good D last year, and now they get Geno/Lock and Seattle twice, and hopefully Trey Lance twice as well (not to mention favorable QB matchups against Carolina, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Atlanta).

1.03 Justin Jefferson (Min - WR)
2.10 Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
3.03 Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)
4.10 J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB)
5.03 Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)
6.10 JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC - WR)
7.03 Melvin Gordon III (Den - RB)
8.10 Hunter Renfrow (LV - WR)
9.03 Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl - RB)
10.10 Zach Ertz (Ari - TE)
11.03 Robert Woods (Ten - WR)
12.10 Gus Edwards (Bal - RB)
13.03 Jarvis Landry (NO - WR)
14.10 Arizona (Ari - DEF)
15.03 Matt Prater (Ari - K)

The thing I hate most about mocks is doing well and wishing it were a real team...

thanks for this.

from what I can see, your best values likely would be:

Robert Woods.   I think hes the type Tannehill will do well with.   and getting him for the price of a backup looks like a great buy

Landry-a bit hit or miss in New Orleans, but hes produced with similar or lesser QB's in the past.   I dont like this pick as much as the Woods pick but at this point in the draft I consider him to be a decent buy with reasonable upside.

I wasnt super keen on Dobbins but you were able to package him with Gus Edwards late.   chances are good when one does poorly the other will play.   assuming this is a best ball league (which i know you are fond of) it is a nice pairing.  

Mahomes in round 5?  I cant believe he fell that  far.   but at that point I dont see why you wouldnt pick him.

in a best ball league I'd criticize that you never got a second QB.  in a normal redraft league this isnt an issue as you can grab one on the wire if you need one.

I know its just a mock but not a bad result overall.    thanks for the info

 

 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

in a best ball league I'd criticize that you never got a second QB

Not a best ball mock, just a normal redraft half-PPR mock.  I almost din't even draft a K or a D, because I probly wouldn't in a real draft this early (when I could take a chance on a Skyy Moore or something instead), but for a mock, what the hey...

[Ray_T 589]

fair enough.  I have done that in years past (not draft a kicker) but then the rule got changed so you had no choice but to fill out your starting roster.

either way, its a mock, and there is some interesting players who fell a bit further than I would have expected.

[DocNiner 44]

For where you picked them and the value you'll get for them I'd rate this as a.prerty decent draft. 12 teams and I think you got really good value on several players. I might not have taken Jefferson at 3 but I can't argue getting a top 3 possible top 1 receiver because the WR group will get depleted fast. Dobbins(4.10) & Mahomes are bang up picks. I too couldn't believe Mahomes was there for you in the 5th. Dobbins late 4th is good getting a starting rb there and you helped yourself handcuffing Edward's with him.                           

Not in love with the Gordon pick as I think Javonte Williams is gonna take/steal majority of touches but hey not a bad pick either. The other players from round 6 through round 12 are excellant picks IMO. I like JuJu's chances of having a big year even if there' multiple WR's who'll see the field he and Patrick will click together. Picks in rounds 8,9 & 10 are excellant. Renfrow will see plenty of targets with focus on Adams. No real RB in Atlants so Patterson should reprise his role from last year. Getting Ertz in round 10 is awesome and even though he's getting older Murray trusts him and he'll get the ball. Everybody's high on Treylon Burks as AJ Brown's successor and maybe so but Woods is no slouch either. Right now I see those two.as WR1 & WR1a. We'll see if Landry can Stat healthy but even though it's just a mock draft I'd say you did anvery good job on drafting a roster that would be tough competition for the other 11 teams.

 

[AxeElf 787]

22 minutes ago, DocNiner said:

I might not have taken Jefferson at 3

Believe me, it took everything in me to pass on Henry, but being a mock, I just wanted to see how the RBs would turn out if I went against the grain.

[DocNiner 44]

Well it looks like you went against the grain and in all fairness I think you made the right decision. Good mock Axe

[weepaws 2,459]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Believe me, it took everything in me to pass on Henry, but being a mock, I just wanted to see how the RBs would turn out if I went against the grain.

You better slow down, you won’t have must left come August. 🥳

[Ray_T 589]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Believe me, it took everything in me to pass on Henry, but being a mock, I just wanted to see how the RBs would turn out if I went against the grain.

well, thats why you mock.   what are you truly giving up if you dont pick player a at #3 overall?

that is the magical question.   

[e-factor 13]

On 6/12/2022 at 2:01 PM, AxeElf said:

I drew the 3rd slot in my first mock of the season--12 teams.  I was excited to have a shot at drafting Derrick Henry--but at the last minute, after seeing some of the RB values in the 3rd-5th rounds, I decided to buck the system, and much to my own personal chagrin at passing on Henry, I went with Justin Jefferson in Round 1, and Deebo Samuel fell to me at 2.10.

I was kind of targeting Barkley in the third, but he fell around the turn so I went with Zeke instead.  At the 4/5 turn, I had my pick of Dobbins or D.Harris; I thought taking Dobbins first gave me the best chance of getting them both, but this time Harris fell around the turn so I pivoted to Mahomes, settling for Melvin Gordon and Cordarrelle Patterson to shore up the RB corps, and handcuffing Dobbins with Gus Edwards late.  I'm hoping for good volume for Juju (and good mojo with Mahomes) and the other possession receivers on my bench (Renfrow, Woods, Landry).

At TE it was pretty much down to Ertz or Gesicki by the time I started thinking about the position, but with all the weapons in Miami now and problems for Hopkins, I thought Ertz was the better bet.  I stuck with Arizona for my D and K as well.  They were a pretty good D last year, and now they get Geno/Lock and Seattle twice, and hopefully Trey Lance twice as well (not to mention favorable QB matchups against Carolina, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Atlanta).

1.03 Justin Jefferson (Min - WR)
2.10 Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
3.03 Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)
4.10 J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB)
5.03 Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)
6.10 JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC - WR)
7.03 Melvin Gordon III (Den - RB)
8.10 Hunter Renfrow (LV - WR)
9.03 Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl - RB)
10.10 Zach Ertz (Ari - TE)
11.03 Robert Woods (Ten - WR)
12.10 Gus Edwards (Bal - RB)
13.03 Jarvis Landry (NO - WR)
14.10 Arizona (Ari - DEF)
15.03 Matt Prater (Ari - K)

The thing I hate most about mocks is doing well and wishing it were a real team...

Listen to the Elf, trophy on the shelf 

We are definitey on the same page on your early picks.  Have been doing a lot of the FBG drafts and watching Elliott fall into the mid and  late 4th is a wonderful thing, unless you are drafting in the early slots and he just misses getting back to you in the 4th.  I took him at 3.2 in one, knowing it was a bad ADP move, but knew he wouldn't make it back.  Part of the reason I love the 8-12 slots.  I can wait until the 4th to grab him.

Ertz and Woods are great picks there.  Word is Woods looks ahead of schedule.