June Top 150

[Mike FF Today 537]

Kicking off Doug Orth's PMA series today with an early Top 150 Overall for PPR leagues. Some nice commentary below the rankings as well. 

[weepaws 1,834]

Thanks. 

[polecatt 314]

Nice ranks.

I imagine this is how most drafts will go, somewhat similar.

Something I have wondered about for a couple of years now.

When will WRs overtake RBs?

It's coming at some point.

I don't know if anyone saw it, but there was a podcast with Melvin Gordon, and he said the RB position may very well be phased out completely in another 5-6 years.

Maybe he's exaggerating a bit but they're certainly not what they used to be.

 

[weepaws 1,834]

I think N Harris is to high.  If the reports about Barkely keep coming in positive, I think he could a first round pick.  

[AxeElf 760]

Derrick Henry 10th?

Good grief, the guy is a perennial top 5 RB, even in PPR, and last year he was leading all other RBs (and Jonathan Taylor) by 50 PPR points through Week 7 when he got hurt.

Then his team traded away their best WR, so now Henry is 10th?

What DO they teach in these schools?

[weepaws 1,834]

Diggs listed after C Lamb, I don’t think so. 

[weepaws 1,834]

I think you picked the perfect place for D Samuel, he’s over valued right now.   

[nobody 1,640]

Interesting take on the Dolphins RB situation.

Chase Edmonds the only guy to make it at RB24 and 54 overall.  The implication is that Edmonds will be the lead back in a wasteland, but I'd have tabbed Mostert to fill that role with Mike McDaniel coaching the team and Edmonds maxing out at 150ish touches last year.  I agree though that the Miami backfield is going to be a mess, I just think the best value is Mostert until he gets hurt.  It'll probably be Mostert 40%, Edmonds 35%, Michel 25% to start and when Mostert gets hurt it becomes more of a 55/45 split in Michel's favor as an early down back.

[weepaws 1,834]

I think it will be Michel as the Dolphins rb to own.  And he’s a great value 

[weepaws 1,834]

M Gordon is 51 picks after J Williams, and yet he might be just as successful.  

[lowman 4]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Diggs listed after C Lamb, I don’t think so. 

If I am in the right spot I would love to end up with Mixon and Diggs.

Possibly Andrews in the Third

 

Its so early , but that would be a solid start to a draft in my opinion 

[polecatt 314]

45 minutes ago, weepaws said:

M Gordon is 51 picks after J Williams, and yet he might be just as successful.  

I think that's gonna be a whole lot closer to an even split than has been speculated.

Javonte may get a few more targets in the passing game, but I think Gordon is still gonna be the goal line RB. He's been highly effective in that role for several years now.

 

[weepaws 1,834]

10 hours ago, lowman said:

If I am in the right spot I would love to end up with Mixon and Diggs.

Possibly Andrews in the Third

 

Its so early , but that would be a solid start to a draft in my opinion 

Mixon and Diggs very good start, at number 16 Diggs would be a great bargain. 

[weepaws 1,834]

10 hours ago, polecatt said:

I think that's gonna be a whole lot closer to an even split than has been speculated.

Javonte may get a few more targets in the passing game, but I think Gordon is still gonna be the goal line RB. He's been highly effective in that role for several years now.

 

Agreed. If you owe Williams, the resigning of Gordon hurt. 

[weepaws 1,834]

At # 141 a wr5 I would take Watson over most of those other players picked about 40 spots before his ranking.  

 

[weepaws 1,834]

What a great value if one does indeed draft R Jones as a rb4.  

[Utilit99 4,098]

Barkley #12 overall? 13 games last year, less than 600 rushing and 250 receiving? 4 total TDs?

The guy has a total of 12 TDs in the last 3 years. Sure he was injured, but when is he going to stop getting injured?

Dude has been getting his ass kicked. I think he's got one more chance this year before he's back up material. 

[polecatt 314]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Barkley #12 overall? 13 games last year, less than 600 rushing and 250 receiving? 4 total TDs?

The guy has a total of 12 TDs in the last 3 years. Sure he was injured, but when is he going to stop getting injured?

Dude has been getting his ass kicked. I think he he's got one more chance this year before he's back up material. 

That's how desperate the RB position is now.

Half the top notch, 1st round, stud RB1s are guys who don't have a snow ball's chance in hell of making it through a season healthy.

It used to be, once an RB had an injury or fell off the proverbial cliff, their value plummeted. Now it seems like an RB has one really good season and it gives them value for a long time

[weepaws 1,834]

Adp Third round is a steal for Barkely if he’s healthy, I’m buying.  

[weepaws 1,834]

#23 rb15 mr Kamara now that’s an interesting slot.  Must be based on his off field issues.  

[Utilit99 4,098]

16 minutes ago, polecatt said:

That's how desperate the RB position is now.

Half the top notch, 1st round, stud RB1s are guys who don't have a snow ball's chance in hell of making it through a season healthy.

It used to be, once an RB had an injury or fell off the proverbial cliff, their value plummeted. Now it seems like an RB has one really good season and it gives them value for a long time

Sure seems that way.  And I don't see what makes Barkley a stud. The guy has had skills but he just gets pummeled on every other play. He just doesn't have the ability to keep from taking big hits below the waist. Maybe it's his mental approach.

[Ray_T 448]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

#23 rb15 mr Kamara now that’s an interesting slot.  Must be based on his off field issues.  

it has to be.  no other explanation other than it is expected he will miss time due to suspension.

 

[Ray_T 448]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Sure seems that way.  And I don't see what makes Barkley a stud. The guy has had skills but he just gets pummeled on every other play. He just doesn't have the ability to keep from taking big hits below the waist. Maybe it's his mental approach.

or the terrible line in front of him.   I'm sure that played a role.

that and his ACL injury.    I actually expect a decent season from him.   I wouldnt go drafting him in the first 2 rounds, but in the 3rd, that makes him a middling RB2.   if he returns to pre injury form, thats a reasonably good price for the guy.   I agree, that a full return to form may not be a realistic expectation but It usually takes 2 years until the player is as good as he was before the injury.   so there is certainly some upside.   and if the new coach turns the offense around there is upside there too.  He worked some pretty good magic in Buffalo so I have to think some improvements in the offense are coming.

one thing I'm certain about, I dont think it can get worse than what we saw last 2 years in New York.   for me the only question is how big an improvement will we have?

 

[Utilit99 4,098]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

or the terrible line in front of him.   I'm sure that played a role.

that and his ACL injury.    I actually expect a decent season from him.   I wouldnt go drafting him in the first 2 rounds, but in the 3rd, that makes him a middling RB2.   if he returns to pre injury form, thats a reasonably good price for the guy.   I agree, that a full return to form may not be a realistic expectation but It usually takes 2 years until the player is as good as he was before the injury.   so there is certainly some upside.   and if the new coach turns the offense around there is upside there too.  He worked some pretty good magic in Buffalo so I have to think some improvements in the offense are coming.

one thing I'm certain about, I dont think it can get worse than what we saw last 2 years in New York.   for me the only question is how big an improvement will we have?

 

I'm in an auction league and I'll buy, but it has to be less than 11% of cap. Which I know is low for a guy with big expectations. I'm betting others in my league will go higher.  

[Ray_T 448]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

I'm in an auction league and I'll buy, but it has to be less than 11% of cap. Which I know is low for a guy with big expectations. I'm betting others in my league will go higher.  

really depends on your league.

hes one guy that seems to have values all over the place.

for me if you are paying the price of an RB1 you are not taking all the risks into account.    some will be willing to pay it.  I"m not.

he can certainly provide that upside, but you dont pay full price for the upside unless there is a very good chance of him achieving said upside.

for me a middling RB2 is a good place to draw that line.   He should achieve that level if he remains healthy all year long.  anything extra you get from him at that price is a bonus.

 

[jrokh 519]

2 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

I'm in an auction league and I'll buy, but it has to be less than 11% of cap. Which I know is low for a guy with big expectations. I'm betting others in my league will go higher.  

What good RB can you even get in your league for 10% of the cap? Like if you put that % into a round in a snake draft what would it be? 5th/6th? Your sense of value is askew...

[AxeElf 760]

Barkley has an AAV of about $35 on RTSports, so about 17.5% of cap, currently.

Around 11% ($22) you have Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, J.K. Dobbins, Antonio Gibson and Breece Hall all between $24-$26, and then Elijah Mitchell at $21 and no other RB until A.J. Dillon at $16.

So yeah, 11% probably won't land Barkley.

[weepaws 1,834]

Why is G Edwards listed ahead of R Jones, I think Jones will be the KC rb to produce the highest ff points 1/2 ppr.  

 

[Utilit99 4,098]

9 hours ago, jrokh said:

What good RB can you even get in your league for 10% of the cap? Like if you put that % into a round in a snake draft what would it be? 5th/6th? Your sense of value is askew...

I'll pay more for a top back, but not Barkley is what I'm saying. I don't think that's askew of anything. Most people go into drafts with guys they don't like at their given value. 

[jrokh 519]

4 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

I'll pay more for a top back, but not Barkley is what I'm saying. I don't think that's askew of anything. Most people go into drafts with guys they don't like at their given value. 

Right. So what you are saying is Barkley is on your DND list. That’s fine just say that.  You don’t need to hedge…

[Utilit99 4,098]

19 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Right. So what you are saying is Barkley is on your DND list. That’s fine just say that.  You don’t need to hedge…

I honestly don't know what the other guys in my league value him at. So that's that. When guys are down, you can get some steals though. 

When planning for my draft, I put limits on players. I don't go in with changing my mind based on other's bids for anyone. With the exception of if there are only 1 or 2 players left in a particular tier I put together. Which I try to avoid getting into that situation at all costs but easier said than done. 

In my league we can put up to 10 players total on contracts up to 4 years. And one of my players is Jacobs at 15% of cap thru 2022. I'm considering dropping him but that will be decided in a couple months. Same with McLaurin at 11%. I'll keep Higgins thru 2023 at .5%, Andrews at 11% and Michael Thomas at 2% thru 2024. 

Anyone can get injured, but holy hell, Barkley has to reprove himself after the last 2.5 years.

[weepaws 1,834]

Lol contracts. Playing house.  

[Utilit99 4,098]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Lol contracts. Playing house.  

?

[weepaws 1,834]

Why is Waddle ranked ahead of Sutton and M Williams.  A wr 2 with Tua at Qb , ahead of two wr1 with Wilson and Herbert at Qb.  

[weepaws 1,834]

One of the reasons why I said I don’t think Kupp will repeat as the top scoring wr half ppr, is Stafford and his shoulder. Sounds like it could be even a bigger issue going into this season.