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Ray_T

The San Fran Offense

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I noticed that both Deebo and Aiyuk are projected to have significant regressions in their stats.

is it fair to assume thats because the team is likely going with Lance over Garoppolo?

I'd buy these guys if I knew Garoppolo was starting, but with Lance, Not so much.

any other insights?

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I think Aiyuk and a significant drop last season from his first season , he avg 4 points less per game 1/2 ppr.  And that was with  Jimmy G at Qb. 

If he drops more he would be retired.  

I don’t see Samuel posting 84 rushing ff points next season , without those 84 points 1/2 ppr he would have dropped seven slots.  I don’t think he’ll lost all those ff rushing points but he’ll lost a lot of them, with Jimmy G or Lance   

I think D Samuel adp is to high.  

 

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think Aiyuk and a significant drop last season from his first season , he avg 4 points less per game 1/2 ppr.  And that was with  Jimmy G at Qb. 

If he drops more he would be retired.  

I don’t see Samuel posting 84 rushing ff points next season , without those 84 points 1/2 ppr he would have dropped seven slots.  I don’t think he’ll lost all those ff rushing points but he’ll lost a lot of them, with Jimmy G or Lance   

I think D Samuel adp is to high.  

 

yeah but once Aiyuk got out of the coaches doghouse he produced well down the stretch. 

I will buy if Jimmy G is still the QB.   but with Lance, I'm not so sure.

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I don’t understand why they want to move on from Jimmy G.   

But my point is I think their is more to their current adp ranking then just the Qb position.  

I think D Samuel is going to drop in numbers, I don’t see him avg 18 yards per rec , and I don’t see him recording 84 rushing ff points, he even said he doesn’t want to do that again.  

Aiyuk did indeed pick it up after his problems with his coach.  I’m not on board about Lance, but I know many believe he is going to be better then Jimmy G.  

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

If Lance is the QB, Deebo is a WR3 and Aiyuk a WR4 to me.

sounds about right.  I'd probably rank deebo as WR2 just because of the other elements to his game.   but there is not a large point difference between a low end WR2 and a high end WR3 so from that perspective our ranking is probably similar that way.

 

as weepaws said, not sure why they want to move on from Jimmy G.  I saw lance play and he honestly didnt look all that different from Teebow when he played.

they may be able to win games if they design a gameplan around his running ability but the good defenses will still be able to stop him.  If he plays that way his career will have a very short shelf life unless he transitions to being a pocket passer over time.

problem is I just dont think hes that good at what he needs to be (throwing the ball) to accomplish that.

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14 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

sounds about right.  I'd probably rank deebo as WR2 just because of the other elements to his game.   but there is not a large point difference between a low end WR2 and a high end WR3 so from that perspective our ranking is probably similar that way.

 

as weepaws said, not sure why they want to move on from Jimmy G.  I saw lance play and he honestly didnt look all that different from Teebow when he played.

they may be able to win games if they design a gameplan around his running ability but the good defenses will still be able to stop him.  If he plays that way his career will have a very short shelf life unless he transitions to being a pocket passer over time.

problem is I just dont think hes that good at what he needs to be (throwing the ball) to accomplish that.

I think they want to move on from Garoppolo because they probably feel that they can't win with him as the season closes.  I'm guessing that despite the fact that Lance looked completely lost and overmatched in his short tenure on the field, they still think he has a very high ceiling.  If you are at the point, then why wait?  Put Lance in and move on from Garoppolo when there's a chance you can get something back for him.

I think I agree with them on Garoppolo, but I'm not totally sure.  I certainly don't agree with their take on Lance.  I think that in 2 years from now... there's a 50/50 chance they regret moving on from Garoppolo and a 90/10 chance they regret drafting Lance.

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9 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think they want to move on from Garoppolo because they probably feel that they can't win with him as the season closes.  I'm guessing that despite the fact that Lance looked completely lost and overmatched in his short tenure on the field, they still think he has a very high ceiling.  If you are at the point, then why wait?  Put Lance in and move on from Garoppolo when there's a chance you can get something back for him.

I think I agree with them on Garoppolo, but I'm not totally sure.  I certainly don't agree with their take on Lance.  I think that in 2 years from now... there's a 50/50 chance they regret moving on from Garoppolo and a 90/10 chance they regret drafting Lance.

They see something in Lance. And I'm betting they are correct. You can write off QBs in their first year looking lost if you like, but then you would miss out in guys like Josh Allen, Steve Young, Peyton Manning, etc....

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Trey Lance is basically in the same spot Patrick Mahomes was going into 2018...

I know it's a big risk with him starting, but I don't think they would start him over Jimmy G if they didn't think he was better.

Trey Lance could be terrible, but I don't think people realize the upside some of these guys have with him that they don't have with Jimmy G

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What upside do they have with Lance that they don’t have with Jimmy G ?  I don’t know so that’s why I’m asking. 

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2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think they want to move on from Garoppolo because they probably feel that they can't win with him as the season closes.  I'm guessing that despite the fact that Lance looked completely lost and overmatched in his short tenure on the field, they still think he has a very high ceiling.  If you are at the point, then why wait?  Put Lance in and move on from Garoppolo when there's a chance you can get something back for him.

I think I agree with them on Garoppolo, but I'm not totally sure.  I certainly don't agree with their take on Lance.  I think that in 2 years from now... there's a 50/50 chance they regret moving on from Garoppolo and a 90/10 chance they regret drafting Lance.

their explanation on Garoppolo is they have questions about his ability to remain healthy.

fair enough.

when healthy, the guy plays well.    he has a bit of a reputation for getting injured easily.    Know who else had that reputation early in his career? Stafford.

I think hes good enough that if you build a good team around him with a very good defense, he can get you across the finish line.    What he wont do is carry the team when the team is playing crappy.

but in my opinion there are only 3 or 4 QB's in the league who can do that.   I assure you Lance isnt one of them.

in the games I saw, he looked like a rookie for sure.  he panicked quickly when plays didnt go the way he wanted to and he broke out of the pocket and ran quite often when the first read wasnt there.   he made some bad decisions at times and really didnt look like he could put the ball on the money either.

agreed, some rookies have this and come out in year 2 a whole lot better.   but If I was San Fran and he didnt come out this year looking considerably better than last year, I dont know that I'd be trading Garoppolo.   I'd probably keep him and start him.

That said, Garoppolo might be a bargain again this year in 2 QB/superflex formats.

If he doesnt start in San Fran, he probably will start somewhere else.   Ideally hed have been moved by now so he could look over the playbook and be ready in week 1, but some team somewhere will have an injury or realize they are dumb going into the season with what they have and they will buck up with a draft pick for him.

what was San Fran asking for him again?      rumour was a 2nd or a 3rd and a player.

I dont know why QB needy teams were not on board with that?  unless Garoppolo was demanding a trade and sign and was asking for too much money.

not sure.   the price isnt out of line unless something else is making this deal unacceptable for any potential buyer.    Or as mentioned before.... San Fran isnt elated with Lance and may be waffling on the prospects of a trade.

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If Lance starts I think a regression in Deebo's numbers are fair. It's also fair to say that.Lance will struggle at times. It's all part of his development. He can't develop if he doesn't play. I'll take all the player regressions but.I still think that Lance will eventually win us a superbowl. Something I don't think Jimmy G can do.

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Lance or Jimmy G at Qb , it won’t matter, D Samuel will be a disappointment as a second round pick, he won’t register the same number of ff 1/2 points as he did last season.  

Also if you’re in a redraft league, don’t make the mistake it drafting Kupp inside the top five , he won’t finish in the top four in 1/2 point ppr this season.  Book it Dano. 

Welcome. 

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43 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Lance or Jimmy G at Qb , it won’t matter, D Samuel will be a disappointment as a second round pick, he won’t register the same number of ff 1/2 points as he did last season.  

Also if you’re in a redraft league, don’t make the mistake it drafting Kupp inside the top five , he won’t finish in the top four in 1/2 point ppr this season.  Book it Dano. 

Welcome. 

Good bet to see a significant regression. Won a SB, got paid a big contract, A. Robinson a red zone threat, year older, possibly a better run game. Still rank him as a top 1-2 WR with Jefferson but his 145 recs, last year were absurd. 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Lance or Jimmy G at Qb , it won’t matter, D Samuel will be a disappointment as a second round pick, he won’t register the same number of ff 1/2 points as he did last season.  

Also if you’re in a redraft league, don’t make the mistake it drafting Kupp inside the top five , he won’t finish in the top four in 1/2 point ppr this season.  Book it Dano. 

Welcome. 

its tough to expect anyone with the season that Deebo and Kupp had to repeat the next year.

but I do think with Deebo and the way he was used, I dont know that that will ever happen again (at least not to this extent)

so I'd say Kupp has a better chance of repeating than Deebo does.   but even with Kupp, the addition of Robinson could affect his numbers.   hard to say for sure how this shakes out.  and the uncertainty to me means you are not taking the guy top 5.   you want players at that point in the draft with very little uncertainty.   

I always rank high production players low uncertainty above high production players with medium or high uncertainty.    That means likely not early first round value.  hes still a very good player.  just not at that point in the draft.

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I don't get it, what player is more reliable going into this season that Cooper Kupp?

If he was down 30 catches, 500 yds and 5 TDs, that's still a top 5 WR

I certainly can't say it's any of the top 5 RBs that will be drafted.

Johnathan Taylor is the overwhelming choice for top overall pick, and I won't argue with that. I don't see how it could be anyone other than Cooper Kupp going 2nd

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Going into last season of someone posted Kupp would be the highest scoring wr in ff, no one would have agreed.  

Im not saying he won’t be very good , I’m thinking outside top four.  

Ps Taylor isn’t the first one on my list.  

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6 hours ago, polecatt said:

I don't get it, what player is more reliable going into this season that Cooper Kupp?

If he was down 30 catches, 500 yds and 5 TDs, that's still a top 5 WR

I certainly can't say it's any of the top 5 RBs that will be drafted.

Johnathan Taylor is the overwhelming choice for top overall pick, and I won't argue with that. I don't see how it could be anyone other than Cooper Kupp going 2nd

most of the mocks I see the top 3 WR go in round 1.  maybe 4.

I think hes on the cusp of that, but there have been enough changes in the offense that there is some risk there.

I'm still deciding if I want to place him at #3 or #4 on my board.   for me that places him near the turn at the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2.

If you ignore the risks, hes likely going around #5 or #6 overall (give or take)

In the June Mock at fftoday he went #7 overall which I felt was a bit early but that is also a best ball format.  in that format he has more value in my opinion.   I like Jefferson and Chase more in standard leagues  (personal preference) but I really dont fault someone for taking him a bit earlier in this format.   

but in the end if you ended up with any of the WR named above you're probably a happy guy.   

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14 hours ago, Ray_T said:

most of the mocks I see the top 3 WR go in round 1.  maybe 4.

I think hes on the cusp of that, but there have been enough changes in the offense that there is some risk there.

I'm still deciding if I want to place him at #3 or #4 on my board.   for me that places him near the turn at the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2.

If you ignore the risks, hes likely going around #5 or #6 overall (give or take)

In the June Mock at fftoday he went #7 overall which I felt was a bit early but that is also a best ball format.  in that format he has more value in my opinion.   I like Jefferson and Chase more in standard leagues  (personal preference) but I really dont fault someone for taking him a bit earlier in this format.   

but in the end if you ended up with any of the WR named above you're probably a happy guy.   

That's the thing though, exactly what I mean.

Many people are stuck in the old way of thinking that they have to draft an RB in the first round no matter what.

If you think Justin Jefferson or Chase will have a better season, fine, that's certainly a strong possibility.

What I don't get is drafting some of the RBs over him. There's only about 2 or 3 I can even see as being a reasonable argument for.

It's one thing to think one WR may get 200 more yards and 2 more TDs over the season, but it's another thing to think a RB who has missed 2/3 of his games the past two seasons or something like that, to all of a sudden be healthy all year and put up huge numbers.

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

That's the thing though, exactly what I mean.

Many people are stuck in the old way of thinking that they have to draft an RB in the first round no matter what.

If you think Justin Jefferson or Chase will have a better season, fine, that's certainly a strong possibility.

What I don't get is drafting some of the RBs over him. There's only about 2 or 3 I can even see as being a reasonable argument for.

It's one thing to think one WR may get 200 more yards and 2 more TDs over the season, but it's another thing to think a RB who has missed 2/3 of his games the past two seasons or something like that, to all of a sudden be healthy all year and put up huge numbers.

There is a point where it makes sense to draft a WR ahead of a RB.

Most years, the dropoff in projected (and in the end actual) is larger for RB's than WR's at that point in the draft.

I did a calculation on this last year around this time using fftoday projections.   at some point this year I'll do it again.  but most years it doesnt make sense to draft a WR in the top 3 or 4.

Usually i look at the ADP for most players.

I figure out how many picks from where I'm picking up and figure out roughly how many WR's and RB's (and even QB's) are likely to be taken in that period.

 

assuming I"m drafting mddle of round 1 and its 13 picks until I pick again.   if the best WR on the board is projected to get 250 fantasy points in whatever format I am using and the top RB is projected to get 235.   but 13 picks from now the best WR on the board is projected to get 230(a drop of 20) points and the best RB is projected to get 205. (a drop of 30) the smart move is to take the RB in round 1 and the WR in round 2 for a total projected point total of 235+230 (total 465) as compared to taking a WR in round 1  and RB in round 2 for a projected total of 250 +205 (total 455)   you are gaining 10 points by taking a RB first.

most years, this is the way it turns out.   it makes more sense to take RB early but at some point it usually switches.  that switch has been happening earlier in the draft in recent years and at some point it will make sense to take WR first.   whether that happens this year remains to be seen.  I"m personally guessing we are a few years away from that yet but I'll let you know when I run those numbers

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further to this, the 24th ranked RB is projected to get 165 fantasy points as per fftoday rankings.

that makes him better than all but the top 8 WR based on this years WR projections as per fftoday.

It doesnt look like there is a case to draft a WR early just simply because the dropoff at RB is too large.  first few picks NEED to be RB's unless you think Kupp is duplicating last years numbers.  If you think he does, then your case is different. but even duplicating last years stats (an unlikely feat)  Kupp does not get more points than the top RB.

based on the projected dropoff in stats, Kupp would need to project for 270-280 fantasy points before it would be worth considering him as the #1 overall pick. (give or take)

so you basically need to bet on him duplicating that career year.

this is actually better than what I thought the numbers would be.   so I'm glad you pushed me to check.  Usually I have a good feel for what the numbers will be when I run them.  in this case I was wrong.  Kupp probably is a top 5 or 6 pick in standard leagues.   in PPR hes probably a lock top 5 pick.   I still would not take him #1 overall.   but top 5 looks achieveable.  

when I do a more detailed run of the numbers I'll let you know the results  but I'll go on to say I initially said I felt he should be drafted at the turn of round 1.  I'm wrong there.  he probably needs to be drafted sooner than that.  based on what I"ve seen likely top 5 or 6  possibly even a slot or two higher.   It does look like fftoday has put a reasonable discount on the fact they are expecting a regression and because of changes to the offense.  so I'll concede there may be more to look at here.  

Keep in mind I"m still making an educated guess based on a survey of the numbers, but I have not run them so my end result may be a bit different yet.   but I'll say now top 10 for sure.   and likely top 5 or 6 for Kupp.   if he falls to the end of round 1 there is enough upside there that hes well worth any risk you could take.

but a better buy could potentially be his teammate Allen Robinson who has produced well for some terrible QB's over his career and now has a very good QB and a good system.   Ranked the 29th best WR by fftoday you could get him as a low end WR3 and he could very well give you some sweet numbers.

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I think Robinson could a steal. But his adp I think will rise before late August 

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8 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think Robinson could a steal. But his adp I think will rise before late August 

agreed.   with good health I dont see how he doesnt get 1000 yards playing for the best QB hes ever had.

given where he is ranked, I suspect his ADP is later than it should be.   This is a player I'm gonna target for sure in my auction.  I suspect I'll get him late and reasonably cheap.

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Yeah he’s on my target list also, but I know is adp is going to get more expensive. 

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4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yeah he’s on my target list also, but I know is adp is going to get more expensive. 

well if you and I are thinking this way chances are good some others are too.   But hes low in the rankings for now, and the longer the Rams hype train stays quiet, the less people think about it.

I think in the end he will jump about 10 spots in the rankings, but I still think hes a good buy at that price.

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Stafford said today how impressive it’s been to see how fast Robinson has picked up their system. There goes ten adp spots. 

Darn I hate those preseason reports.  Like I hated the mandemic.  

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43 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Stafford said today how impressive it’s been to see how fast Robinson has picked up their system. There goes ten adp spots. 

Darn I hate those preseason reports.  Like I hated the mandemic.  

nobody pays attention to anything that is said at this time of the year.

this time last year (or was it the year before) the bears were speaking about how Good Dalton was looking.

I know its one example, but this crap happens all the time.   the coach/gm wants to pump up the fans and speak about what a good move they made in the offseason.

we wont likely know the truth until they start playing preseason games.   even then, a lot of coachspeak needs to be codebreaked before you can figure out what it means.

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I agree coach talk is cheap, everyone gets a good report, but this came from the Qb.  And I think positive news about a player that has performed as a wr1 on the past is a adp mover, even this time of season, after all that’s how adp move.  

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On 6/19/2022 at 12:59 PM, Ray_T said:

further to this, the 24th ranked RB is projected to get 165 fantasy points as per fftoday rankings.

that makes him better than all but the top 8 WR based on this years WR projections as per fftoday.

It doesnt look like there is a case to draft a WR early just simply because the dropoff at RB is too large.  first few picks NEED to be RB's unless you think Kupp is duplicating last years numbers.  If you think he does, then your case is different. but even duplicating last years stats (an unlikely feat)  Kupp does not get more points than the top RB.

based on the projected dropoff in stats, Kupp would need to project for 270-280 fantasy points before it would be worth considering him as the #1 overall pick. (give or take)

so you basically need to bet on him duplicating that career year.

this is actually better than what I thought the numbers would be.   so I'm glad you pushed me to check.  Usually I have a good feel for what the numbers will be when I run them.  in this case I was wrong.  Kupp probably is a top 5 or 6 pick in standard leagues.   in PPR hes probably a lock top 5 pick.   I still would not take him #1 overall.   but top 5 looks achieveable.  

when I do a more detailed run of the numbers I'll let you know the results  but I'll go on to say I initially said I felt he should be drafted at the turn of round 1.  I'm wrong there.  he probably needs to be drafted sooner than that.  based on what I"ve seen likely top 5 or 6  possibly even a slot or two higher.   It does look like fftoday has put a reasonable discount on the fact they are expecting a regression and because of changes to the offense.  so I'll concede there may be more to look at here.  

Keep in mind I"m still making an educated guess based on a survey of the numbers, but I have not run them so my end result may be a bit different yet.   but I'll say now top 10 for sure.   and likely top 5 or 6 for Kupp.   if he falls to the end of round 1 there is enough upside there that hes well worth any risk you could take.

but a better buy could potentially be his teammate Allen Robinson who has produced well for some terrible QB's over his career and now has a very good QB and a good system.   Ranked the 29th best WR by fftoday you could get him as a low end WR3 and he could very well give you some sweet numbers.

I said I would run the numbers and so I have

here is my analysis.

to begin, I am going to outline certain assumptions.

1) everyone has access to fftoday numbers and adp numbers

2) we assume the fftoday projected numbers are correct.   if you dont like the fftoday numbers you can re do this using your own projections.  the outcome should be reasonably close to being the same.

3) the league is a PPR league  so all numbers are taken from the PPR projections at fftoday.

I wont get into an argument over whether the fftoday numbers are right or wrong.   everyone adjusts rankings according to their own preference.  I assume if doing this for your own draft you will do the same.

if drafting at the number one slot,   the best RB is Jonathan Taylor getting a projected 324 fantasy points (rounded)

according to the ADP numbers recently posted on fftoday hes the #1 guy going in the drafts.   if you dont pick him with the #1 pick, your next RB will be your #1 RB taken at #24 overall.  in this case the highest RB's likely to be on the board would be David Montgomery (236 fantasy points), zeke (226 fantasy points) or etienne, hall, or barkley (all around 210 fantasy points)

the assumption is that you would take the highest projected which would be Montgomery.   

the dropoff from Taylor to Montgomery is just over 88 points 

if you take Kupp at #1 overall he is projected to get 324 fantasy points as well (just like Taylor)

Based on the ADP of WR's if you dont take him at #1 your next pick would allow you to get a #1 WR at pick 24 who should likely be Keenan Allen (241 fantasy points)  a projected loss of 83 points.

as the projected loss is slightly larger for Taylor, in PPR he should be your #1 pick.

to confirm.    if you need to take one RB and one WR in a 2 player draft.   Taylor 324 + Keenan Allen 241 give a total score of 565 and Kupp 324 + Montgomery (236) give 560 points.

so Taylor should go #1 overall in a PPR format but it is actually close.    

but now that Taylor is gone, in theory, Kupp should go at #2 because at pick #23 the dropoff for Kupp to the next WR remains the same (because a QB was projected to go at 23)  and McCaffrey projected to score 308 points will have a smaller dropoff by about 16 points thereby making Kupp the more attractive pick at #2 overall.   so in PPR, Kupp should be going at #2 overall.

in standard leagues, that number likely would drop him a few ranks but in PPR hes a top 2 (possibly even top 1) pick depending on where you project the individual players involved. (as the reality is that not everyone uses the fftoday numbers)

so if you think the fftoday numbers, Kupp looks to be a legitimate top 2 pick in PPR

if you have questions about my calculations or methodology fire me an email.   

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I said I would run the numbers and so I have

here is my analysis.

to begin, I am going to outline certain assumptions.

1) everyone has access to fftoday numbers and adp numbers

2) we assume the fftoday projected numbers are correct.   if you dont like the fftoday numbers you can re do this using your own projections.  the outcome should be reasonably close to being the same.

3) the league is a PPR league  so all numbers are taken from the PPR projections at fftoday.

I wont get into an argument over whether the fftoday numbers are right or wrong.   everyone adjusts rankings according to their own preference.  I assume if doing this for your own draft you will do the same.

if drafting at the number one slot,   the best RB is Jonathan Taylor getting a projected 324 fantasy points (rounded)

according to the ADP numbers recently posted on fftoday hes the #1 guy going in the drafts.   if you dont pick him with the #1 pick, your next RB will be your #1 RB taken at #24 overall.  in this case the highest RB's likely to be on the board would be David Montgomery (236 fantasy points), zeke (226 fantasy points) or etienne, hall, or barkley (all around 210 fantasy points)

the assumption is that you would take the highest projected which would be Montgomery.   

the dropoff from Taylor to Montgomery is just over 88 points 

if you take Kupp at #1 overall he is projected to get 324 fantasy points as well (just like Taylor)

Based on the ADP of WR's if you dont take him at #1 your next pick would allow you to get a #1 WR at pick 24 who should likely be Keenan Allen (241 fantasy points)  a projected loss of 83 points.

as the projected loss is slightly larger for Taylor, in PPR he should be your #1 pick.

to confirm.    if you need to take one RB and one WR in a 2 player draft.   Taylor 324 + Keenan Allen 241 give a total score of 565 and Kupp 324 + Montgomery (236) give 560 points.

so Taylor should go #1 overall in a PPR format but it is actually close.    

but now that Taylor is gone, in theory, Kupp should go at #2 because at pick #23 the dropoff for Kupp to the next WR remains the same (because a QB was projected to go at 23)  and McCaffrey projected to score 308 points will have a smaller dropoff by about 16 points thereby making Kupp the more attractive pick at #2 overall.   so in PPR, Kupp should be going at #2 overall.

in standard leagues, that number likely would drop him a few ranks but in PPR hes a top 2 (possibly even top 1) pick depending on where you project the individual players involved. (as the reality is that not everyone uses the fftoday numbers)

so if you think the fftoday numbers, Kupp looks to be a legitimate top 2 pick in PPR

if you have questions about my calculations or methodology fire me an email.   

correction, according to the ADP fournette should be the highest ranked fftoday player available at pick 24 as his projected score is 256.7.   I have reviewed this, and my thought is I'm not sure his ADP is realistic at this point.  the unquestioned #1 RB in Tampa should go sooner than the end of round 2 so long as Brady appears healthy (right now he does)  so to that end I will not change my calculations.  but if you believe that he will be available at the end of round 2, that would actually make Kamara the best choice at the #1 pick.

when I noticed this I felt I should let you all know.

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What happens when Taylor and Kupp don’t score the most ff this next season for rb/wr? 

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

What happens when Taylor and Kupp don’t score the most ff this next season for rb/wr? 

for this exercise I was just showing people how I figure out when it makes sense to draft a WR instead of a RB and I used the fftoday rankings as an example.

I fully realize your rankings may differ from those of fftoday.  but for this exercise I went on the assumption that the fftoday rankings are the expected result.

if you have someone else ranked as the #1 RB, then change the rankings and then do the same exercise.

I've just shown you how to do it.

bottom line is if you dont fully agree with the fftoday rankings you tweak until you are happy.    then you go and figure out at which point it makes sense to flip flop betwen RB and WR over the course of the draft to get the best result.

my argument is you figure out how many points at RB you forfeit by taking your first RB in round 2 instead of round 1 for your draft slot.   you do the same for the WR position.  I use average ADP to determine that expected result.   of course you sometimes have to tweak if the ADP isnt in line with reality.   like in the fournette example.  I find it highly unlikely the #1 RB in Tampa goes outside the first 2 rounds unless Brady is injured or he himself is injured/suspended.  

in the example above the projected loss by not taking your player at #1 overall determines who you actually pick.   that is the theory.

for the purposes of making my point I used the fftoday rankings.  its easier.  

 

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It’s not about rankings , it’s about performance, what if neither one of those two players finish first in points at their position. 

I don’t think one should draft based on how many points one might lose if they go wr or rb first, one should draft by who’s going t be the best one, heck if we know.  But personally I think one shouldn’t concern themselves with issue of better to go rb/ wr first. 

Just my own personal feelings.  

But i think you did a great job with the info. 

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11 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t think one should draft based on how many points one might lose if they go wr or rb first, one should draft by who’s going t be the best one, heck if we know.  But personally I think one shouldn’t concern themselves with issue of better to go rb/ wr first. 

if you are drafting based on who gets the most fantasy points then why dont you draft a QB in round 1?

your top QBs get 450 points per year.  your top WR and RB's dont even come close to that?

 

its because the dropoff in points from QB1 to QB5 isnt the same as the dropoff from RB1 to RB5

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

what if neither one of those two players finish first in points at their position. 

well, nobody knows.   obviously you use the rankings you feel are most likely to be correct whether by fftoday someone else or created by yourself.

but those are risks with any list you will ever make.

if you dont feel your top ranked player will actually be top ranked, you need to adjust your list.   thats just common sense.  I made the assumption that fftoday rankings were accurate in my analysis.

I did this for three reasons.

1) I didnt want to get into a debate with someone over whether the rankings were good.  that wasnt what the post is about.

2) its probably not polite to come on to fftoday's board and plug someone elses rankings either. I wasnt here to do this.

3) convenience.  the rankings are made, I can make an example using them without doing a whole bunch of extra work.

If you think there is a better way, go ahead and do your own homework and suggest one.   I figure thats what this board is about(at least in part)  we all want to talk about fantasy football and learn from each other.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

if you are drafting based on who gets the most fantasy points then why dont you draft a QB in round 1?

your top QBs get 450 points per year.  your top WR and RB's dont even come close to that?

 

its because the dropoff in points from QB1 to QB5 isnt the same as the dropoff from RB1 to RB5

well, nobody knows.   obviously you use the rankings you feel are most likely to be correct whether by fftoday someone else or created by yourself.

but those are risks with any list you will ever make.

if you dont feel your top ranked player will actually be top ranked, you need to adjust your list.   thats just common sense.  I made the assumption that fftoday rankings were accurate in my analysis.

I did this for three reasons.

1) I didnt want to get into a debate with someone over whether the rankings were good.  that wasnt what the post is about.

2) its probably not polite to come on to fftoday's board and plug someone elses rankings either. I wasnt here to do this.

3) convenience.  the rankings are made, I can make an example using them without doing a whole bunch of extra work.

If you think there is a better way, go ahead and do your own homework and suggest one.   I figure thats what this board is about(at least in part)  we all want to talk about fantasy football and learn from each other.

 

 

ADP, I’m not going to draft any Qb in the first round based. , Based on ADP ones does need to chase rb/wr.  

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

ADP, I’m not going to draft any Qb in the first round based. , Based on ADP ones does need to chase rb/wr.  

not suggesting you should.   but in my opinion that is the reason you dont.   

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On 6/17/2022 at 1:36 PM, weepaws said:

What upside do they have with Lance that they don’t have with Jimmy G ?  I don’t know so that’s why I’m asking. 

Lance has the ability to make throws Jimmy can't.  Defenses could flood the middle of the field because Jimmy didn't use the sidelines or the deep middle.  

I feel way better drafting both Deebo and Aiyuk this year, especailly Aiyuk.  Deebo put up big numbers because of his incredible running ability after the catch, but now will get more downfield plays as well.  

SF  gave up all that draft capital while Jimmy still had 2 years left on his contract for a reason.  While a solid QB,  Jimmy limited the offense because he can't make certain throws.  Lance can.  

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3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

not suggesting you should.   but in my opinion that is the reason you dont.   

If I was in a two Qb league I would draft my first Qb very early.  I was in a two Qb league for 6-7 seasons, I really liked it. B

In that league the adp of qbs was much higher so I’m looked for one earlier, 12 teams non ppr two qbs they go real quick.  

This season not so much, I’m looking rb/wr in the first. 

I mean if my first round target is Kupp , I’m nit worried about he much I might lose taking a rb later.  

 

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16 minutes ago, e-factor said:

Lance has the ability to make throws Jimmy can't.  Defenses could flood the middle of the field because Jimmy didn't use the sidelines or the deep middle.  

I feel way better drafting both Deebo and Aiyuk this year, especailly Aiyuk.  Deebo put up big numbers because of his incredible running ability after the catch, but now will get more downfield plays as well.  

SF  gave up all that draft capital while Jimmy still had 2 years left on his contract for a reason.  While a solid QB,  Jimmy limited the offense because he can't make certain throws.  Lance can.  

I think Samuel put up big ff numbers because of him running with the ball as a rb . I know for sure he won’t score as much ff points, so his ADP isn’t to my liking. 

Last season at this time I was against Aiyuk ADP, right now I think he could a steal. 

Thanks for the info , much appreciated.  

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37 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think Samuel put up big ff numbers because of him running with the ball as a rb . I know for sure he won’t score as much ff points, so his ADP isn’t to my liking. 

Last season at this time I was against Aiyuk ADP, right now I think he could a steal. 

Thanks for the info , much appreciated.  

He didn't start getting a lot of carries until week 10, which is when his receiving numbers dropped off.  Only had 2 good receiveing games in the last 7 when he started playing more RB, so I think that narrative is off base looking forward to 2022.  He won't score 8 rushing TDs again, but will probably get at least 3 even in a reduced role as a ball carrier.  Will get a couple jet sweeps a game and some gadget plays.  He will make that up in receptions and receiving yardage.  Currently going late round 2, which I think is good value as I expect him to be a top 5-7 receiver this year.

Excited as a SF fan to see him play with a QB who has the arm strength to let him run a full route tree.

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