Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Ray_T

The San Fran Offense

Recommended Posts

No question he won’t score 8 rushing tds, hard to even say that a wr will score three rushing tds.  He’s also not going to have 365 rushing yards.  

And it’s yet to be seen how he and Lance can do together, looks like they had two full games together last season, one was before he turn into a rb, and neither was top notch. 

Im expecting to see more out of their Rbs , and I expect to see lance run around more then Jimmy G , and I think Aiyuk is going to rebound from his tough sophomore season.  I think Samuel current ADP is to high, but I hope in the two leagues I’m in, that others agree with you.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

to me the biggest risk is whether Lance plays (or not)

I'm a lot more comforable drafting any san fran WR with Jimmy G at QB.  with Lance, not so much. 

but if they are moving on from Jimmy G, they need to rip off the band aid and now is as good a time as any.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

to me the biggest risk is whether Lance plays (or not)

I'm a lot more comforable drafting any san fran WR with Jimmy G at QB.  with Lance, not so much. 

but if they are moving on from Jimmy G, they need to rip off the band aid and now is as good a time as any.

As a Niner fan, I have the opposite take.  Lance can make throws Jimmy can't which is why they drafted him with Jimmy still under contract for two years.  

Deebo averaged 18 yards per catch with an ADOT of 8.3 in 2021.  10.4 after catch.  In 2020 his ADOT was 2.3 with 12.2 after the catch. 2.3.  Most of the top receivers are in the 12-14 yard range for ADOT. 8.3 is TE range.   Those are not throws that are going to be hard to duplicate for Lance.  Also, as a fan who watched every play during the season, those short throws weren't exactly in stride either.  If they had been, add another 300 or so yards to Deebo's total

I like Jimmy and all but he isn't a good QB.  Take him out of the Shanahan system and he's a bottom 5 QB, which is why nobody is trading for him.

Last thing on Deebo.  He will run less this year, but not like he's not going to get any carries.  He will still get 3-4 quality carries a game and a decent amount in the red zone.  All NFL players like to get the ball in close.  Just won't see the RB type runs up the middle that he was getting when he was getting the 8 carry a game loads.  Will still get 250/3 as a runner.  Plus more targets.  If you can get him after the mid 2nd in redraft, he will give you good value.  In the 3rd, he's a bargain.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4th round for me , not touching Samuel before that, I have to many other I trust more,  plus once again don’t hesitate on a late pick of Aiyuk.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

4th round for me , not touching Samuel before that, I have to many other I trust more,  plus once again don’t hesitate on a late pick of Aiyuk.  

Then you won't need to worry about him because you won't get him there unless it's an 8 team league. Late 2nd ADP in high stakes leagues at this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, e-factor said:

Lance can make throws Jimmy can't which is why they drafted him with Jimmy still under contract for two years.  

Who cares if he can 'make throws' Jimmy can't? How many of those so-called throws has Lance ever made in an actual NFL game? Maybe he does great this year, but to date he has done squat. Jimmy has led 2 different teams on deep playoff runs.

 

56 minutes ago, e-factor said:

Take him out of the Shanahan system and he's a bottom 5 QB, which is why nobody is trading for him.

Nobody is trading for him because he's hurt and makes 25 million. I get why they traded for Lance, but for fantasy if I owned a niners receiver I'd much prefer Jimmy G as the QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, e-factor said:

Then you won't need to worry about him because you won't get him there unless it's an 8 team league. Late 2nd ADP in high stakes leagues at this point.

Nope I’m not concern , I would rather that someone else pick him to early. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, e-factor said:

As a Niner fan, I have the opposite take.  Lance can make throws Jimmy can't which is why they drafted him with Jimmy still under contract for two years.  

Deebo averaged 18 yards per catch with an ADOT of 8.3 in 2021.  10.4 after catch.  In 2020 his ADOT was 2.3 with 12.2 after the catch. 2.3.  Most of the top receivers are in the 12-14 yard range for ADOT. 8.3 is TE range.   Those are not throws that are going to be hard to duplicate for Lance.  Also, as a fan who watched every play during the season, those short throws weren't exactly in stride either.  If they had been, add another 300 or so yards to Deebo's total

I like Jimmy and all but he isn't a good QB.  Take him out of the Shanahan system and he's a bottom 5 QB, which is why nobody is trading for him.

Last thing on Deebo.  He will run less this year, but not like he's not going to get any carries.  He will still get 3-4 quality carries a game and a decent amount in the red zone.  All NFL players like to get the ball in close.  Just won't see the RB type runs up the middle that he was getting when he was getting the 8 carry a game loads.  Will still get 250/3 as a runner.  Plus more targets.  If you can get him after the mid 2nd in redraft, he will give you good value.  In the 3rd, he's a bargain.

 

well, as a football fan I found it hard to watch Lance play when he did play.   he wasnt very good.  he missed a lot of open receivers, wasnt on target with a high percentage of his throws and ran with the football when his first read wasnt open.   Basically he was a slightly better version of Tim Teebow.

he has room to grow as a player for sure and at times I see his talent.   but I dont think hes a better player than Jimmy G.   not right now anyhow.

that may change in the future but in the short term there will be some growing pains with this kid.   he may or may not turn into the player hes supposed to be.

as for Deebo. I'm not worried about whether he runs.  to me hes a good WR with or without the runs.  notice how his pass catching dropped when they started running him.   I dont know that the running adds that much value but it does add some versatility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In half ppr he avg one more point per game the second half of the season.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, weepaws said:

In half ppr he avg one more point per game the second half of the season.  

fair enough, but 1 point isnt a lot.  and some of that could have been the surprise factor.   when they first started using him in this way I'm betting teams were not expecting or gameplanning for it.

either way, the sample size is also small enough that it can be skewed by a couple good games.

for my purposes I feel his value is nearly the same whether they run the ball with him or use him exclusively as a WR. 

you may feel different about it and thats totally ok.   I suspect with a guy like Deebo, everyone's opinion is probably a bit different as the guy is fairly unique as a player and each of us likely sees something in the guy that the rest of us dont.

this is one player whose ADP could theoretically be all over the place and may fluctuate by a lot between now and week 1.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, jrokh said:

Who cares if he can 'make throws' Jimmy can't? How many of those so-called throws has Lance ever made in an actual NFL game? Maybe he does great this year, but to date he has done squat. Jimmy has led 2 different teams on deep playoff runs.

 

Well, obviously Shanahan and Lynch care since they gave up a lot of draft capital when they had Jimmy locked up for two more years.  Are you saying that having a QB who can utilize the whole field isn't a big deal?

The plan was to sit Lance in 2021, so yeah, he hasn't done much.  However, great bomb to Aiyuk against Houston.  Small sample size but more of this to come. 

Jimmy did lead 2 different deep playoff runs, which shows how good the rest of the roster is.  Defense was amazing and they had the super bowl win ALMOST wrapped up until Jimmy choked the game away in the 4th quarter.  They had a 10 point lead to start the 4th quarter against the Rams in the NFC championship game before his collapse.  His inability to use the sidelines and deep middle limits the play calls and makes it easier for the defense to defend the part of the field they are effective in.  Pretty simple really.

Jimmy Garoppolo went 3 for 9 for 30 yards and INT in 4th quarter against the Rams in the NFC championship game. In 6 playoff starts Garoppolo has a 28.0 passer rating in the 4th, ranking last among 69 QBs w/ 30+ 4th quarter passes in playoffs since 1991

Jimmy Garoppolo had 2.8 rating in 4th quarter of super bowl against the Chiefs. The only player w/ lower rating in 4th quarter of playoff loss since 2000 season (min 5 attempts) was Vince Young at 0.0 (1 for 5, 6 yards INT) vs in 4th quarter vs Chargers 1/6/08

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, e-factor said:

Are you saying that having a QB who can utilize the whole field isn't a big deal?

No. I’m saying the 49ers skill players were successful in Fantasy Football with Jimmy G at QB. Will they be as or more successful with Lance? Perhaps, but I’d bet against it for this year., not to the level they were with the superior Jimmy G manning the helm. It’s been a few years now, probably time to get over the Super Bowl….

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

fair enough, but 1 point isnt a lot.  and some of that could have been the surprise factor.   when they first started using him in this way I'm betting teams were not expecting or gameplanning for it.

either way, the sample size is also small enough that it can be skewed by a couple good games.

for my purposes I feel his value is nearly the same whether they run the ball with him or use him exclusively as a WR. 

you may feel different about it and thats totally ok.   I suspect with a guy like Deebo, everyone's opinion is probably a bit different as the guy is fairly unique as a player and each of us likely sees something in the guy that the rest of us dont.

this is one player whose ADP could theoretically be all over the place and may fluctuate by a lot between now and week 1.

 

I feel differently with Lance as his Qb, who’ve said the same.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I feel differently with Lance as his Qb, who’ve said the same.  

understandable.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×