Aaron Jones vs AJ Dillon

[robocardz 14]

Thoughts on GB backfield IN BOTH tradional scoring league (non-ppr) and ppr

 

Obviously I think Jones is still the better option in PPR.  I think...

No clue on Traditional non-ppr... one would assume that Dillon will get carries inside the 5 yd line but you never know with GB goal line offense - AROD likes his stats..

[weepaws 2,452]

Jones

Dillon.  

[makindollaz 40]

Jones will finish with better stats, but Dillon will finish with much better draft value.

[Ray_T 587]

44 minutes ago, makindollaz said:

Jones will finish with better stats, but Dillon will finish with much better draft value.

  This

you will get Dillon far later in the draft.

Jones will put up the better numbers, but Dillon is the better bang for your draft dollar because of how long you can wait to take him.

[weepaws 2,452]

Dillon of course is the better value, but A Jones will finish in the top five 1/2 ppr, the Packers are very limited at wr.  At his current adp Jones gives one the luxury of going stud wr first round, while drafting a stud rb 1 in the second.  I like that.  

[wolves111 69]

10 hours ago, weepaws said:

Dillon of course is the better value, but A Jones will finish in the top five 1/2 ppr, the Packers are very limited at wr.  At his current adp Jones gives one the luxury of going stud wr first round, while drafting a stud rb 1 in the second.  I like that.  

Agree with the idea of a stud WR followed by the RB. I would however consider taking J. Williams over Jones as he's younger and has more upside, imo.

[polecatt 399]

This is more of a toss up than it may appear. Just like the RB situation in Denver.

Dillon had more carries last season. I know he played in 2 more games, but I think it's trending in that direction heading into this season.

Jones had more catches, but Dillon had very respectable receiving numbers for a 2nd string RB.

Jones will be more valuable in PPR, and I think Dillon may be in standard.

 

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

This is more of a toss up than it may appear. Just like the RB situation in Denver.

Dillon had more carries last season. I know he played in 2 more games, but I think it's trending in that direction heading into this season.

Jones had more catches, but Dillon had very respectable receiving numbers for a 2nd string RB.

Jones will be more valuable in PPR, and I think Dillon may be in standard.

 

well, there was an injury to Jones, but I think you can make a case for drafting Dillon as your RB3 if you own Jones.(if you can get him)

[weepaws 2,452]

17 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Agree with the idea of a stud WR followed by the RB. I would however consider taking J. Williams over Jones as he's younger and has more upside, imo.

Not me, last season A Jones avg three points more per game 1/2 ppr then Williams last season. Even M Gordon avg more points per game 1/2 ppr then Williams, I think along with D Samuel, they both have over valued adp right now.  Jones also three more points per game 1/2 then Dillon last season. 

[weepaws 2,452]

12 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, there was an injury to Jones, but I think you can make a case for drafting Dillon as your RB3 if you own Jones.(if you can get him)

I would agree, I think we see more rb combos that both of them can be relevant to a ff owner.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

The Packers are paying Jones way too much money for him to not be a big part of the offense, not only this year, but next year.  His cap hit is over $13M this year, it's $9.5M next year, and in the following year, his base pay is $11M.  They can't cut him nor can they trade him.  No one will want to take on that contract.  Unless Jones gets hurt, and he might, he's going to be the lead guy.

In any format, the guy to take is Dillon because Jones will go too early for the value he'll return because Dillon is still going to get a good amount of work.  In keeper and dynasty league, Dillion is a much better option because his contract is up after the 2023 season and he'll probably go somewhere else and be a lead back.

[wolves111 69]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Not me, last season A Jones avg three points more per game 1/2 ppr then Williams last season. Even M Gordon avg more points per game 1/2 ppr then Williams, I think along with D Samuel, they both have over valued adp right now.  Jones also three more points per game 1/2 then Dillon last season. 

Drafting last year's results isn't always a good plan.

[Ray_T 587]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

The Packers are paying Jones way too much money for him to not be a big part of the offense, not only this year, but next year.  His cap hit is over $13M this year, it's $9.5M next year, and in the following year, his base pay is $11M.  They can't cut him nor can they trade him.  No one will want to take on that contract.  Unless Jones gets hurt, and he might, he's going to be the lead guy.

In any format, the guy to take is Dillon because Jones will go too early for the value he'll return because Dillon is still going to get a good amount of work.  In keeper and dynasty league, Dillion is a much better option because his contract is up after the 2023 season and he'll probably go somewhere else and be a lead back.

this is true.

when a team pays a player this much, they will give him all the opportunity in the world to show he was worth the money and that management didnt mess the team up by signing the guy.

there are times when you have to go with the 'follow the money' rule.

I think this is one of those times

[jrokh 567]

I don’t get how Javonte’s ADP is higher than A. Jones, at least in FFC Half-PPR.  If that holds I guess I’ll have to put Javonte on my DND list. No way I’m paying a 1.12 price on him.

[weepaws 2,452]

6 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Drafting last year's results isn't always a good plan.

Not always, but with the return of Gordon it is.   

 

[polecatt 399]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

I don’t get how Javonte’s ADP is higher than A. Jones, at least in FFC Half-PPR.  If that holds I guess I’ll have to put Javonte on my DND list. No way I’m paying a 1.12 price on him.

I'm not saying he's not gonna be pretty good, but people seem to be jumping the gun on him a little bit.

I think it's gonna be close to a 50/50 split again. Gordon is still gonna get the goal line carries too.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

On 6/20/2022 at 4:47 PM, polecatt said:

I'm not saying he's not gonna be pretty good, but people seem to be jumping the gun on him a little bit.

I think it's gonna be close to a 50/50 split again. Gordon is still gonna get the goal line carries too.

I think Williams gets more of the total touches, I'm leaning towards 55+/45-, because he's younger and I think a bit better and faster.  Gordon and Williams both got 26 touches and 6 TD's inside the 10 last year.  Inside the 5, Gordon had 4 TD's, Williams had 3.  I wouldn't phrase it as "Gordon is still gonna get the goal line carries too", because that implies that Williams won't be in there.

I think the fact that it took about 5 or 6 weeks after the FA period opened in the NFL for Gordon to re-sign with the Broncos, and for only $2.5M, tells me that the Broncos were ok with Gordon leaving and that other teams weren't interested in giving him $3M.  I know teams are devaluing RB's, but $3M for a RB who can give you 12 to 15 touches a game seems like a no brainer to me, yet, there were no buyers.  That's a bit curious.

In terms of points, in a PPR league, Williams finished as RB17 and Gordon was RB21... I can see where this year, Williams is RB11 and Gordon RB30.  I'd say I'd have Williams as a mid to late R2 pick.

[wolves111 69]

42 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Williams gets more of the total touches, I'm leaning towards 55+/45-, because he's younger and I think a bitter better and faster.  Gordon and Williams both got 26 touches and 6 TD's inside the 10 last year.  Inside the 5, Gordon had 4 TD's, Williams had 3.  I wouldn't phrase it as "Gordon is still gonna get the goal line carries too", because that implies that Williams won't be in there.

I think the fact that it took about 5 or 6 weeks after the FA period opened in the NFL for Gordon to re-sign with the Broncos, and for only $2.5M, tells me that the Broncos were ok with Gordon leaving and that other teams weren't interested in giving him $3M.  I know teams are devaluing RB's, but $3M for a RB who can give you 12 to 15 touches a game seems like a no brainer to me, yet, there were no buyers.  That's a bit curious.

In terms of points, in a PPR league, Williams finished as RB17 and Gordon was RB21... I can see where this year, Williams is RB11 and Gordon RB30.  I'd say I'd have Williams as a mid to late R2 pick.

That's a credible analysis. I can see it playing out that way.

Interesting though that this time last year there was uncertainty surrounding the Indy RB's. Mack coming off the Achilles tear, Hines a solid 3rd down RB, and Taylor, generated a lot of discussion about who would be the main guy. Taylor was even referred to as just a RBBC back on this board by a regular poster.

I could absolutely see Williams duplicate what Taylor did last season should Denver feature him.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

6 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

That's a credible analysis. I can see it playing out that way.

Interesting though that this time last year there was uncertainty surrounding the Indy RB's. Mack coming off the Achilles tear, Hines a solid 3rd down RB, and Taylor, generated a lot of discussion about who would be the main guy. Taylor was even referred to as just a RBBC back on this board by a regular poster.

I could absolutely see Williams duplicate what Taylor did last season should Denver feature him.

 

To be fair, I think Mack not being healthy and as a result only playing 6 games, played a big part in that.  If you're going to tell me that Gordon is going to miss something like 11 games this year... I'm taking Williams in the top 5, possibly even #2 overall.

[jrokh 567]

18 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

I could absolutely see Williams duplicate what Taylor did last season should Denver feature him.

Anything is possible but unlikely. Taylor averaged 5.0 ypc his rookie year to Javonte’s 4.4. JT was way more prolific in college and had freakish combine testing. Indy’s OL is much better than Denver’s. Not really a good comparison. But if you believe it Javonte should probably be in your top 5 overall. 

[weepaws 2,452]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think Williams gets more of the total touches, I'm leaning towards 55+/45-, because he's younger and I think a bitter better and faster.  Gordon and Williams both got 26 touches and 6 TD's inside the 10 last year.  Inside the 5, Gordon had 4 TD's, Williams had 3.  I wouldn't phrase it as "Gordon is still gonna get the goal line carries too", because that implies that Williams won't be in there.

I think the fact that it took about 5 or 6 weeks after the FA period opened in the NFL for Gordon to re-sign with the Broncos, and for only $2.5M, tells me that the Broncos were ok with Gordon leaving and that other teams weren't interested in giving him $3M.  I know teams are devaluing RB's, but $3M for a RB who can give you 12 to 15 touches a game seems like a no brainer to me, yet, there were no buyers.  That's a bit curious.

In terms of points, in a PPR league, Williams finished as RB17 and Gordon was RB21... I can see where this year, Williams is RB11 and Gordon RB30.  I'd say I'd have Williams as a mid to late R2 pick.

Why would he be bitter? 

[weepaws 2,452]

No way J Williams puts up Taylor type numbers, they didn’t break the bank to resign Gordon, but they did resign him, I see another RBBC in favor of Williams, last season they both had 203 rush att, with Gordon leading the way in tds and avg per rush. Impossible to say how good of a ff season Taylor would have had if both he and Mack were healthy through out the season.  

If anyone thinks that Gordon will just be a second stringer will be upset by mid season of the lack of production from Williams, I think he along with D Samuel have adp that won’t match their production.  Half ppr I would rather have Jones as my rb1 and Gordon on my bench/ 3rd rb = winner  

Thanks. 

[wolves111 69]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

No way J Williams puts up Taylor type numbers, they didn’t break the bank to resign Gordon, but they did resign him, I see another RBBC in favor of Williams, last season they both had 203 rush att, with Gordon leading the way in tds and avg per rush. Impossible to say how good of a ff season Taylor would have had if both he and Mack were healthy through out the season.  

If anyone thinks that Gordon will just be a second stringer will be upset by mid season of the lack of production from Williams, I think he along with D Samuel have adp that won’t match their production.  Half ppr I would rather have Jones as my rb1 and Gordon on my bench/ 3rd rb = winner  

Thanks. 

Well, that's your hill to live on. Sometimes it pays to be ahead of the herd. We'll see...

[Ray_T 587]

26 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Well, that's your hill to live on. Sometimes it pays to be ahead of the herd. We'll see...

if hes buying Gordon as a RB3 I dont think hes taking a whole lot of risk.   

so long as Williams isnt a bellcow, Gordon should put up Reasonable numbers even if he only gets around 45% of the touches.

This was a 50-50 timeshare last year.   I think Williams gets more play but not enough that this isnt considered a timeshare.

[weepaws 2,452]

17 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Well, that's your hill to live on. Sometimes it pays to be ahead of the herd. We'll see...

Ok thanks. 

[Donkey 34]

On 6/20/2022 at 8:05 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

The Packers are paying Jones way too much money for him to not be a big part of the offense, not only this year, but next year.  His cap hit is over $13M this year, it's $9.5M next year, and in the following year, his base pay is $11M.  They can't cut him nor can they trade him.  No one will want to take on that contract.  Unless Jones gets hurt, and he might, he's going to be the lead guy.

In any format, the guy to take is Dillon because Jones will go too early for the value he'll return because Dillon is still going to get a good amount of work.  In keeper and dynasty league, Dillion is a much better option because his contract is up after the 2023 season and he'll probably go somewhere else and be a lead back.

Jones cap hit is 20M in 2023, no reason they can't cut him after this year.  He's owed $7M in March 2023 which makes cutting him more likely.  There's some chance he comes back on team friendly deal, but the greater likelihood is he goes somewhere else for more cash.  Info in the linked article if interested.

The Clock Is Ticking On Aaron Jones' Time In Green Bay - Zone Coverage

[polecatt 399]

On 6/21/2022 at 4:52 PM, wolves111 said:

Well, that's your hill to live on. Sometimes it pays to be ahead of the herd. We'll see...

Especially with a RB.

When you get an RB a year too late, they often tank big time

[weepaws 2,452]

On 6/21/2022 at 10:43 AM, weepaws said:

No way J Williams puts up Taylor type numbers, they didn’t break the bank to resign Gordon, but they did resign him, I see another RBBC in favor of Williams, last season they both had 203 rush att, with Gordon leading the way in tds and avg per rush. Impossible to say how good of a ff season Taylor would have had if both he and Mack were healthy through out the season.  

If anyone thinks that Gordon will just be a second stringer will be upset by mid season of the lack of production from Williams, I think he along with D Samuel have adp that won’t match their production.  Half ppr I would rather have Jones as my rb1 and Gordon on my bench/ 3rd rb = winner  

Thanks. 

 

On 6/21/2022 at 1:52 PM, wolves111 said:

Well, that's your hill to live on. Sometimes it pays to be ahead of the herd. We'll see...

 

5 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Especially with a RB.

When you get an RB a year too late, they often tank big time

So do you think he might be drafting J Williams a year to late?  I don’t I think J Williams is going to have another very good season, and he should be the lead rb, but Gordon is going to frustrate J Williams owners a lot, I would rather have Gordon as a rb3-4 and expect a slight up tick in ff points for J Williams, but not much more.  

[polecatt 399]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

 

 

So do you think he might be drafting J Williams a year to late?  I don’t I think J Williams is going to have another very good season, and he should be the lead rb, but Gordon is going to frustrate J Williams owners a lot, I would rather have Gordon as a rb3-4 and expect a slight up tick in ff points for J Williams, but not much more.  

I do believe he's being highly over valued in drafts.

I don't see 1st round production. They didn't bring Melvin Gordon back to sit him on the bench. I think it's gonna be closer to a 50/50 split than most think. Besides, Denver is gonna throw the ball a lot more this season now that they have a QB. So I don't know that there is gonna be enough fantasy points for more than a RB2/RB3 duo. Or 2 flex RBs.

Bad news for J WIlliams owners too, is Melvin Gordon will probably get the goal line carries. He's been about as good as anyone at scoring inside the 5 the past 6 seasons. I would imagine that's what they brought him back to do for the most part. This would mean the uptick in offense would mostly help Gordon with more TD opportunities from close.

J Williams will probably be the better RB in PPR, but in standard, I could see it being a wash.

The only way I see J WIlliams living up to the hype is if he just comes out of the gates and goes off. Takes the bull by the horns and wins the job outright. There's a chance that happens, but most likely, I think he's only gonna marginally outscore Gordon. Which of course will leave people who drafted J Williams upset that he performed like a 4th round pick, and Gordon owners pleasantly surprised that he was as good their RB who went in the the 1st/2nd rounds.

[TBayXXXVII 2,107]

15 hours ago, Donkey said:

Jones cap hit is 20M in 2023, no reason they can't cut him after this year.  He's owed $7M in March 2023 which makes cutting him more likely.  There's some chance he comes back on team friendly deal, but the greater likelihood is he goes somewhere else for more cash.  Info in the linked article if interested.

The Clock Is Ticking On Aaron Jones' Time In Green Bay - Zone Coverage

Good catch on that, I was looking at his dead cap number.