Later round lotto Tickets-WR

[Ray_T 588]

ok guys , I am putting up this thread.

please restrict the conversation to players outside of the top 40 WR on the board.

I dont mind if you pick someone on the fringe as some could easily fit between #35 and #45 depending on who is doing the rankings, but the bottom line  is we are not talking about guys that would go in the first 5 or 6 rounds.   

for me, interestingly enough, I have 2 guys ranked at around #40-45.  Marquise Brown and Treylon Burks.   

I  also have Devante Parker in New England as a player who could surprise.

once again Aiyuk.   I think based on the second half of last season once he got out of his coaches doghouse, I think he should be able to out perform his ADP.

Watkins in Green Bay could surprise.

[AxeElf 787]

Robert Woods and Christian Kirk are currently WR41 and WR42 at RTSports, and both of them are likely to be their team's leading receivers, at least early on.

[jrokh 568]

Is this a true lotto ticket question or a which WR currently not ranked in the top 40 will surely be inside that come the majority of drafts. Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, and guys like that aren’t going to be ranked that way come mid August. You want a true lotto ticket? Use your last pick on Wandale Robinson. Dude can play and the staff has plans to use him.

[weepaws 2,456]

As of today’s ADP.  I like R Gage not to sure Godwin is ready to start the season.  

Also like Mclaurin and C Watson, and M Gallup I think could be the best producing wr on the Cowboys once he returns.  

I think Thielen is another one.  

[Ray_T 588]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

Is this a true lotto ticket question or a which WR currently not ranked in the top 40 will surely be inside that come the majority of drafts. Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, and guys like that aren’t going to be ranked that way come mid August. You want a true lotto ticket? Use your last pick on Wandale Robinson. Dude can play and the staff has plans to use him.

he was on my watch list.

basically I"m looking for late round picks who could perform well enough to be solid starters.

if you get one starter for the price of a backup that makes up for the one starter you think will perform but doesnt (or gets hurt)

if you get two, your chances of winning the league go up by a fair margin.

[DocNiner 44]

I like 2 rookies to have decent production. First,  Alec Pierce(Ind) WR78.Don't really see a clear cut #2 in Indy, maybe Pascal, but I think if Pierce has a decent camp he could grab the #2 job. Matt Ryan's better than Wentz so Pierce will get targets even if the majority of the offense runs through Jonathan Taylor.

2nd, I like rookie Jalen Tolbert(Dal) WR81 to step into the #2 spot in week one. Gallup's still rehabbing and don't know when he'll be back. Of course there's Zeke, Pollard, Schultz and Lamb who'll garner most of the attention. That'll leave Tolbert in a favorable position to be Dak's #2 receiver. I think both these guys are worth late round flyers and give you a bonus for drafting them.

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, DocNiner said:

2nd, I like rookie Jalen Tolbert(Dal) WR81 to step into the #2 spot in week one.

Zero chance of this occurring in Week One, barring catastrophic injuries to James Washington and Noah Brown.  Maybe later in the season--again, depending on injuries, and of course his progress as a rookie, but no, not Week One.

[weepaws 2,456]

4 hours ago, DocNiner said:

I like 2 rookies to have decent production. First,  Alec Pierce(Ind) WR78.Don't really see a clear cut #2 in Indy, maybe Pascal, but I think if Pierce has a decent camp he could grab the #2 job. Matt Ryan's better than Wentz so Pierce will get targets even if the majority of the offense runs through Jonathan Taylor.

2nd, I like rookie Jalen Tolbert(Dal) WR81 to step into the #2 spot in week one. Gallup's still rehabbing and don't know when he'll be back. Of course there's Zeke, Pollard, Schultz and Lamb who'll garner most of the attention. That'll leave Tolbert in a favorable position to be Dak's #2 receiver. I think both these guys are worth late round flyers and give you a bonus for drafting them.

I like the Pierce pick, Pascal isn’t on the Colts , I have heard that Campbell has been good, but he seems to look good until he’s injured.  

[nobody 2,037]

Josh Palmer.  He's running as the 3rd wide receiver right now, but he's better than Mike Williams.  Mikey also got paid so we can count on him shutting it down in week 4 now that he had the successful contract year.

[Super Cubs 132]

Jarvis Landry seems to have a decent shot at the top 40 ppr.  Who knows what to expect from Michael Thomas at this point? Olave is a rookie that could have a Chase like impact or he might be Sammy Watkins.  For the most of his career Landry has been very dependable. 

[wolves111 69]

4 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

Jarvis Landry seems to have a decent shot at the top 40 ppr.  Who knows what to expect from Michael Thomas at this point? Olave is a rookie that could have a Chase like impact or he might be Sammy Watkins.  For the most of his career Landry has been very dependable. 

Yeah, he could get a lot of targets simply by default. Kamara now facing a civil suit on top of the August court date for assault. Thomas hasn't been reliable since he got paid and as you said the rookie is an unknown. Vegas has their win total at 7.5 and should both Kamara and Thomas be unavailable they'll be playing from behind a lot and that win total will drop.

He could have a year like Cooks had with Houston last year. Bad team with few playmakers.

[DocNiner 44]

On 6/24/2022 at 12:25 PM, AxeElf said:

Zero chance of this occurring in Week One, barring catastrophic injuries to James Washington and Noah Brown.  Maybe later in the season--again, depending on injuries, and of course his progress as a rookie, but no, not Week One.

Yeah I could see it taking a while for Tolbert to work his way in to steady play. I still have a hunch about this guy.and.my.hunches have paid off more often than not.

[weepaws 2,456]

Even with the addition of Robinson, I still like very late V Jefferson.  

Also I like T Patrick of the Broncos, but I have heard that K Hamlin is coming round nicely from His injury.  

I still think once he returns from his injury M Gallup will be the Cowboys wr to own after his return. 

And for some reason I feel like B Aiyuk of the Niners might be a good fit with Lance, so I’m also listing him.  

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 588]

10 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah, he could get a lot of targets simply by default. Kamara now facing a civil suit on top of the August court date for assault. Thomas hasn't been reliable since he got paid and as you said the rookie is an unknown. Vegas has their win total at 7.5 and should both Kamara and Thomas be unavailable they'll be playing from behind a lot and that win total will drop.

He could have a year like Cooks had with Houston last year. Bad team with few playmakers.

well, the good news is WR can perform on a bad team.    if the team is losing by multiple touchdowns, you are facing soft coverage and a good WR can really milk it against a soft zone.

Cecil Shorts used to be the master of this.   come garbage time his team would be down 2+ TD's and he'd rack up 60+ yards and sometimes a TD in the 4th Quarter.   dude was magic in garbage time.   not overly useful any other time but in garbage time he was great.

 

[worm 34]

K.J. Osborn had 5 TD's in 6 games while Thielen was out.  The new offense looks to be a little more pass-friendly, and Thielen is not getting any younger.

[jonmx 1,573]

DJ Chark is an easy 1,000 yards, 8TD guy you can get late.  

[jrokh 568]

1 hour ago, jonmx said:

DJ Chark is an easy 1,000 yards, 8TD guy you can get late.  

In 4 seasons Chark only reached those numbers 1 time. That is a 25% hit rate. How does that equate to an 'easy' 1000 yards 8 td guy? Let me guess he plays for the lions and Goff is going to throw for 5,000 yards and Chark and Jameson Williams are both going to clear 1,500 receiving... 

[Ray_T 588]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

In 4 seasons Chark only reached those numbers 1 time. That is a 25% hit rate. How does that equate to an 'easy' 1000 yards 8 td guy? Let me guess he plays for the lions and Goff is going to throw for 5,000 yards and Chark and Jameson Williams are both going to clear 1,500 receiving... 

well, I would argue that there may be a 1000 yard WR on this years lions team this year.  key word is May.   its not a lock.   

It is Highly unlikely there are two 1000 yard WR on this team.

if Chark gets 1000 I'd say Amon Ra St Brown wont.

Most are betting on St Brown to be that 1000 yard guy.  but I think Chark has just under a 40% chance of being that guy.  and you can get him wayyyy late compared to St Brown.

so if betting on Detroit,  Chark is by far the better gamble because the cost of buying will be very low.   Amon Ra is ranked by fftoday at #21.  that makes him a low end WR2.  so you are probably getting him in round 5 or 6(give or take)

Chark you might not even need to draft.  he may be sitting on the wire in week 1.   This is a completely different level of risk in the sense that you risk nothing more than that of a free agent pickup (or a pick in the last or second last round of your draft)

best thing about Chark.... at that point in the draft, if he gets 800 yards and a few TD's hes likely worth the price you paid. (almost nothing)

I'd draft him as a WR5 and if he doesnt work out, there is the waiver wire.   No real loss there.

 

[weepaws 2,456]

I think In a 17 game season if Chark can stay healthy he has a shot at 1000, also depends on what role Williams has when he’s ready.  

But St Browns adp to high,Chark is by far the better buy.  

 

[Ray_T 588]

10 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think In a 17 game season if Chark can stay healthy he has a shot at 1000, also depends on what role Williams has when he’s ready.  

But St Browns adp to high,Chark is by far the better buy.  

 

there is also the possibility that St Brown got a lot of balls thrown his way because who else was Goff gonna throw to?

dont get me wrong I like St Brown, but I dont think hes a lock for a great season.

Like I said in my previous post.... someone on that roster likely gets 1000 yards receiving.   If St Brown is that guy, Chark wont be.  but if Chark is that guy, St Brown probably wont be.

The odds of both of them being 1000 yard WR is very low.  it can happen but I'd bet the farm against it.

[jonmx 1,573]

On 6/29/2022 at 8:12 PM, jrokh said:

In 4 seasons Chark only reached those numbers 1 time. That is a 25% hit rate. How does that equate to an 'easy' 1000 yards 8 td guy? Let me guess he plays for the lions and Goff is going to throw for 5,000 yards and Chark and Jameson Williams are both going to clear 1,500 receiving... 

You asked for a lottery ticket.  If everyone thought he was a 1,000 yards reciever, he would not be a lottery ticket.  DJ first season he was a rookie and was not used much.  His second season he was an all-pro on a crappy Jax team.  His third season he had some back and ankle injuries which limited his action and he missed portions of about half his games.  His four season, he broke his ankle and missed 13 games.  The Dude has 4.3 speed and is a damn good 50-50 ball guy.  He is the surest guy you can pick that late with a very high ceiling.  If you think you know it all, pass on him and kick yourself later for being such a smart ass.   No skin off me.  

If you actually followed the Lions you knew they had no WRs the first half of the season and a terrible offensive coordinator.  As soon as fired Anthony Lynn and gave Ben Johnson the reigns at drawing up the offense, Goff started to look pretty good.  It actually helped that they finally gave him a legitimate WR in Josh Reynolds in week 9 to throw to and Amon-Ra finally started jell.  DJ Chark is grossly underrated.  Goff is also an excellent value as a backup QB.  He will throw for over 4,000 yards with a good OC and very good weapons.  

 

[jrokh 568]

13 hours ago, jonmx said:

If you actually followed the Lions you knew they had no WRs the first half of the season and a terrible offensive coordinator. 

Do Lions Fans even follow the Lions?

[Ray_T 588]

23 hours ago, jonmx said:

You asked for a lottery ticket.  If everyone thought he was a 1,000 yards reciever, he would not be a lottery ticket.  DJ first season he was a rookie and was not used much.  His second season he was an all-pro on a crappy Jax team. 

your point on this is well made.   I"m not looking for guys ranked in the top 40.  I'm looking for guys expected to go later who have the potential to produce.

this is a good candidate even if you dont like the mans explanation.   hes produced 1000 yards in the past on a crappy team.  hes not wrong about that.

hes now on a team with (presumably) a better QB.   I say presumably because I actually like Minshew.  I think he is the best QB on the Eagles.   not the best fantasy QB obviously as he is not the starter but I feel if he became the starter he could do some good things in Philly.

either way,  I agree.  if drafting late and somehow you got shut out of the good receivers for one reason or another... Chark is a nice candidate to take late and I think he produces well enough that he is rostered in most leagues by year end.  only thing to fear with him is injury as hes not been the model of great health of late.