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Ray_T

Adjusting for Kamaras possible suspension

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ok I'm gonna take a stab at this.

we have a 17 game season.   I did some research, and many feel hes looking at a minimum of 6 games and possibly a max of 8 unless new info comes out.

this knocks him down to an 11 game season.

problem is, we should not pro rate this based on an 11 game season because the fantasy season runs only 14 weeks.

the suspension would be the first 6-8 weeks of the season if the above info is reasonably close to being correct.

I think the best way to adjust is to project point totals over the season then get a points per game value and then predict based on # of fantasy games played.

in this case, roughly 7 fantasy games + playoffs.

does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

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Doubt I own any shares of Kamara. Didn’t like how he looked last season, feels like he’s getting worn down. 

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Depends how early your draft is. If it’s not for a while why bother worrying about it. We will know soon enough how many games the suspension will be. Get back to me then…

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3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

ok I'm gonna take a stab at this.

we have a 17 game season.   I did some research, and many feel hes looking at a minimum of 6 games and possibly a max of 8 unless new info comes out.

this knocks him down to an 11 game season.

problem is, we should not pro rate this based on an 11 game season because the fantasy season runs only 14 weeks.

the suspension would be the first 6-8 weeks of the season if the above info is reasonably close to being correct.

I think the best way to adjust is to project point totals over the season then get a points per game value and then predict based on # of fantasy games played.

in this case, roughly 7 fantasy games + playoffs.

does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Well, apparently In Louisiana it’s a serious allegation with significant prison time if he’s convicted. Up to 5 years imprisonment if guilty. The fact that the NFL is floating 6-8 game suspension would seem to indicate the fix is in.

Rules for thee and rules for me.

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1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

Well, apparently In Louisiana it’s a serious allegation with significant prison time if he’s convicted.

Irrelevant to a crime committed in Nevada.

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I’m sure I’ll know more late August. 

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6 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Doubt I own any shares of Kamara. Didn’t like how he looked last season, feels like he’s getting worn down. 

Yeah, that's exactly how I feel. He's trending in the wrong direction at a quick pace.

He's not the same without Brees. Last season he was very much more the typical workhorse RB than the hybrid receiving RB he's always been.

The results weren't good. His ypc was a terrible 3.7, he's usually more than a full yard over that. He had a lot more carries, and a lot less catches in the fewest games he's ever played.

Despite the uptick in carries he had a career low in rushing TDs. The only thing that saved his season, really was the 5 receiving TDs, which is probably going down with his catches.

Factor in his likely suspension, and that he'll be coming into the middle of the season rusty, probably not in the best focus. I wouldn't draft him unless he falls a lot further than he's going to.

I would say, expect about 3 games of RB2/flex numbers, and then he should be up to speed for the fantasy playoffs, where he should be a decent RB2 in today's RB thin league. He's still gonna be capable of a big game, so there's gonna be a week or two you're very glad you start him, but I don't see reliability

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Yeah, that's exactly how I feel. He's trending in the wrong direction at a quick pace.

He's not the same without Brees. Last season he was very much more the typical workhorse RB than the hybrid receiving RB he's always been.

no surprise really. 

If I were a DC facing the Saints last year I would have stacked the box and forced them to throw the ball until they prove they can beat you through the air.

I suspect thats exactly what happened with Brees gone.

Winston was showing signs of getting on track and then got hurt.   whether it was just a blip or not I cannot say.  I guess we will find out this year.

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4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Irrelevant to a crime committed in Nevada.

Tomatoes… Tomattos…

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If there wasn’t a suspension coming soon, and there will be, I would have no problem taking him half ppr.  

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5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Irrelevant to a crime committed in Nevada.

Alleged crime

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Not much happening on the legal side of this. The concern is whether or not the video will get leaked at some point during the season...

 

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Sounds like there's a decent chance this gets pushed back past the season.

If that's the case, I think you could see him play this season, but then be cut before next season with a suspension looming.

He's coming off a disappointing season where he saw some huge drops in key stats. He's at the point where RBs can start to hit the cliff...

This could be a huge make or break year in more ways than one

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At least sixty days, makes him a tough buy.  But his ADP should keep dropping.  

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Been taking Mark Ingram in a bunch of best balls.  At minimum he'll give me a few weeks to start the season where he'll put up flex if not RB2 type numbers.

As for Kamara, if he's out 4-6 games he'll still be a valuable piece to have for the stretch run.

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35 minutes ago, darin3 said:

Been taking Mark Ingram in a bunch of best balls.  At minimum he'll give me a few weeks to start the season where he'll put up flex if not RB2 type numbers.

As for Kamara, if he's out 4-6 games he'll still be a valuable piece to have for the stretch run.

I grabbed him real late in our July Mock for that reason.

there will likely be some serviceable weeks there if Kamara misses time.

if he doesnt miss time I may have missed on the pick, but it was a late pick anyhow.   those picks dont pan out that often anyhow.

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With his current adp Ingram is worthy of a draft spot. 

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