**Look-Alike Players 2022: Lamar Jackson vs. Kyler Murray**

[Fumbleweed 422]

It's time for another summer of Look-Alike Player threads...if you're new to the Board, every few days during the summer, I will try to post a thread that lists two players who are very close in value in redraft situations. Simply vote for the player you feel should be drafted first and then add comments about your selection if you would like.

This is non-PPR for Look-Alike matchups that involve RBs, WRs, or TEs. Just standard point for every 10 yards and 6 for TDs.

 

The third Look-Alike Matchup for this summer is: Lamar Jackson vs. Kyler Murray.  Two starting-caliber fantasy QBs whose games offer versatility in terms of how they score points. 

 

Who should be picked first?

[weepaws 2,452]

Jackson, I think Murray is going to lose it this season, and quit.  I think he’s a deva.  

[Ray_T 587]

31 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Jackson, I think Murray is going to lose it this season, and quit.  I think he’s a deva.  

Hes a Deva but a Deva who can play.

as far as talent, and fantasy ability Jackson isnt anywhere close to where Murray is.

I suppose there is a risk he throws a temper tantrum and quits but I consider that risk to be very small at this point.  the team is winning and brought in his college buddy to play WR for him.

I think they bought themselves at least a year with that move. 

[e-factor 13]

14 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Hes a Deva but a Deva who can play.

as far as talent, and fantasy ability Jackson isnt anywhere close to where Murray is.

I suppose there is a risk he throws a temper tantrum and quits but I consider that risk to be very small at this point.  the team is winning and brought in his college buddy to play WR for him.

I think they bought themselves at least a year with that move. 

The Murray talk is just contract negotiating.  He's fine as far as continuing his NFL career.

When Hopkins is back, that's going to be a potent group of WRs, along with Ertz.  I would take Murray after the big 3 go off the board, but I generally wait until about QB 8. so I won't get him in redraft unless he falls to where he is an incredible value.

 

 

[Ray_T 587]

6 minutes ago, e-factor said:

The Murray talk is just contract negotiating.  He's fine as far as continuing his NFL career.

When Hopkins is back, that's going to be a potent group of WRs, along with Ertz.  I would take Murray after the big 3 go off the board, but I generally wait until about QB 8. so I won't get him in redraft unless he falls to where he is an incredible value.

 

 

fair enough.  I wouldnt draft him top 5 but top 10 is likely fair.   I know jackson is listed as top 10 (barely) but with his #1 WR gone, I'd expect teams will put their best corner on Waller (the only real threat in the pass game) and bring lots of pressure.   

Unless Bateman steps up to become a 1000 yard WR this offense is in trouble.  Not saying it cant happen.  Bateman was a first round pick.   but it might be a year away before hes ready to produce like this.

[weepaws 2,452]

I’m sticking with Jackson.  

[weepaws 2,452]

41 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

fair enough.  I wouldnt draft him top 5 but top 10 is likely fair.   I know jackson is listed as top 10 (barely) but with his #1 WR gone, I'd expect teams will put their best corner on Waller (the only real threat in the pass game) and bring lots of pressure.   

Unless Bateman steps up to become a 1000 yard WR this offense is in trouble.  Not saying it cant happen.  Bateman was a first round pick.   but it might be a year away before hes ready to produce like this.

17 game season if Bateman stats healthy he’ll need 59 yards per game , I don’t see how that doesn’t happen.  

[Ray_T 587]

14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

17 game season if Bateman stats healthy he’ll need 59 yards per game , I don’t see how that doesn’t happen.  

well, he got roughly half that last year. 

I think its a legitimate point that when you draft Jackson in the top 10, you NEED a player who has never had a 1000 yard season to step up and have one for this pick to pan out.  I dont think he gets enough passing yards otherwise.   It doesnt need to be Bateman, but hes the most likely guy to do it.

so when drafting him top 10, this is (in my opinion) one of the things that needs to happen to make that pick worth the draft capital.

from there, you can make your own judgement.   either way, for him to be better than Kyler in terms of fantasy, you need more than this. 

I dont think thats a reasonable ask this year unless they somehow acquire another WR who can put up decent yards and catches between now and draft day.

[weepaws 2,452]

I disagree, Jackson still has Andrews at te, Bateman was option number three on the team , plus he missed five games.  

If he plays 17 full games I think he’ll match what M Brown did last season   

Last two seasons Murray as avg one point more per game then Jackson ,  Jackson beats him out this season, and with better value. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,106]

I guess Jackson because he'll run more... I think.

[jrokh 567]

If Dobbins and the Gus Bus are back healthy it’s easily LJax.

[DocNiner 44]

I say Murray. He's either going to implode and have a not so good year or he's going to weather the storm jntil DHop gets back and put together a pretty good years production. Yeah we all know ow he fell.apart late last year but once his contract gets done he'll hopefully mature a little bit and get his head screwed on right. He's got the talent to be a top 5 QB, but really needs to grow up if he wants to be an elite NFL QB.                                                                      Jackson's added 10 to15 lbs. of muscle this year which will help him take the pounding he's gonna get but yeah he lost his WR1 in Brown but he still has his favorite target Mark Andrew's. Bateman will take another step up in his 2nd year but the Ravens will continue to run the ball a ton. Jackson will put uptop 10 QB numbers but when the seasons over I think Murray will have better numbers than Jackson IF he continues to mature and not whine.

 

 

 

[weepaws 2,452]

I think that’s interesting how much people like Murray based on the return of Hopkins, I think that’s a good way of looking at it since they did let both Kirk and Edmonds go.   

But im also wondering about how good Hopkins still might be, in his last 12 games he hasn’t posted a 100 yard game.  

I think it’s Jackson.  

[jrokh 567]

If it wasn't Jackson before this definitely seals the deal...

 

 

 

[Ray_T 587]

On 7/9/2022 at 9:39 AM, DocNiner said:

Jackson's added 10 to15 lbs. of muscle this year which will help him take the pounding he's gonna get but yeah he lost his WR1 in Brown but he still has his favorite target Mark Andrew's. Bateman will take another step up in his 2nd year but the Ravens will continue to run the ball a ton. Jackson will put uptop 10 QB numbers but when the seasons over I think Murray will have better numbers than Jackson IF he continues to mature and not whine.

This.

Murray last year averaged about 270 yards per game through the air last year.  the year before just shy of 250 yards per game.

he has still progressed.   and he did it without his #1 WR for a fair portion of the year.

Leading WR on the team was Christian Kirk?  he got almost 1000 yards Receiving.  previous high for Kirk was around 700 I think.   Hes a serviceable number 2 but he's not a #1 WR (or if he is, he shouldnt be)

Murrays stats dipped at the end of the season with his #1 WR Hopkins on the shelf.   This is to be expected.  you dont replace a guy like him.   you just dont.

so the last 4 games of the regular season he averaged 250 yards per game.   Thats not horrible at all.  thats on pace for 4250 yards for a season for the bad part of his season.

Lamars career high in terms of pass yards per game was last year at 240 yards per game.  his highest passing year was 3127 yards in 2019.

what makes this guy good is his running yards.   what makes him risky is the fact he misses games every year other than his rookie year.   all those extra rush attempts means he takes a lot more hits.

if he runs more, it can mean more fantasy points.  it can also mean more games missed due to injury.   its a double edged sword.

Now Lamar has lost his #1 WR.   Bateman could put up 1000 yards and replace the production of Brown.  but someone needs to step into Batemans old spot.

I still think its a net negative from last year.

Murray's stats are trending in the right direction.   I think he will be fine so long as he keeps his head screwed on straight.  I think he takes things to the next level.   hes got the talent to do it on this team even with Hopkins on the shelf for 6 games.   I think he still can get it done.

either way,  I dont like the guy all that much to be honest, but I do think he gets the job done in Arizona.

[weepaws 2,452]

On 7/6/2022 at 10:56 AM, weepaws said:

I disagree, Jackson still has Andrews at te, Bateman was option number three on the team , plus he missed five games.  

If he plays 17 full games I think he’ll match what M Brown did last season   

Last two seasons Murray as avg one point more per game then Jackson ,  Jackson beats him out this season, and with better value. 

 

Half point ppr Hopkins had his worst season based on avg since 2016. In the ten games Hopkins played in he didn’t reach 100 plus yards in any of them.  

Jackson. 

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Now Lamar has lost his #1 WR.   Bateman could put up 1000 yards and replace the production of Brown.  but someone needs to step into Batemans old spot.

I still think its a net negative from last year.

In 2019, when Lamar won the MVP and was at the top of fantasy QB's his leading receiver was Mark Andrews with 852 yards. His second leading receiver was Hollywood Brown with 584. Your argument doesn't hold water. Andrews and Bateman should do fine...

[Matt Mueller 146]

I love Lamar and don’t like a Murray as a player 

 

but I think Murray has more skill options and plays in a dome and was a little healthier last year 

 

I guess Murray.  I don’t need to draft either of them at adp

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

In 2019, when Lamar won the MVP and was at the top of fantasy QB's his leading receiver was Mark Andrews with 852 yards. His second leading receiver was Hollywood Brown with 584. Your argument doesn't hold water. Andrews and Bateman should do fine...

yeah he also ran for 1200+ yards that year and threw for 3100+. 

Neither number hes been able to top since.

That said,  rush yards are worth more than passing yards in most fantasy leagues for QB.   this is the only thing that makes him viable as a #1 QB.

what really made me decide on Murray is the fact I see an improvement in his per game stats every year.   Not the case for Lamar.

Most running QBs with any kind of a lengthy career start out running more and throwing less and gradually transition to throwing more and running less over time.   with the loss of his #1 WR it is possible he may end up running more out of necessity.  so it is certainly possible.

what concerns me is the line wasnt that good last year in my opinion and he could take a lot of big hits like Newton did at this point in his career if that line doesnt turn it around.

but for me, if hes gonna outscore Kyler Murray fantasy wise, he needs at least 1100 or 1200 yards on the ground with a decent number of rushing TD to do this.  even then, he also needs a minimum of  3000+ pass yards to go with it.   This also requires him to stay healthy.

I just dont see it.    its possible, I just dont think its highly likely.    even then, it may not be enough if Murray goes from 270 to (lets say 280 or 285 yards per game passing)

I'd still stack the odds in favour of Murray.  I'd say its like an 80% chance Murray has more fantasy points assuming health of both all year(yes I know... big assumption)

thats how I feel.   if you feel hes gonna light it up on the ground I'd say its possible.  higher chance of injury if the season goes that way, but certainly a possible outcome.

I dont have anything else to say.

in the end I likely wont end up with him as my QB but I'm ok with that.

[weepaws 2,452]

Murray had in his contact that he must do more film study, then he became upset that he was wrongly being judged, now Zona has removed that clause from Murray’s contract, if Zona starts out the season slow, Murray is going to blow up, buyer beware any and all Zona players.

Book it Dano.