Second Mock - Late WR Value

[AxeElf 787]

For my second mock (same rules--12 team snake, half-PPR; same draft position--#3), I switched it up and gorged myself on RBs first, even picked a QB and a TE before I finally picked my first WR in the 6th!

I'm really not a big fan of the Pitts pick, though; there just weren't any WRs around that point that I felt were worthy of being my WR1.  But Pitts is about the only game in town for the Falcons' passing attack, and he seems like the kind of player Mariota would look to dump off to.  If I was actually drafting him here, I would hope he could put up 6-7 TDs in his second season to go with his 1000 yards--just because who else is there?

I also wasn't a big fan of the Aiyuk pick in the 7th; a more balanced strategy in the first couple of rounds would probably have me picking a RB3 in the 5th and I could use that 7th on a TE like Ertz maybe.

After that, it seemed like there was value in every pick--Patterson, Renfrow, Woods, Landry, and the "handcuffs" Robinson and Chark all seemed to noticeably improve my team.

It would be nice if Amon-Ra (or Chark) would continue to be close to WR1 material, but in the half-PPR 2RB/2WR/Flex format, I can run with my three elite RBs and two WRs if need be, and between Woods, Aiyuk, Landry and Renfrow, hopefully one or more of them can be a solid WR2.

Dunno if I like this team as much as the first mock--2 Lions receivers, 2 Jaguars running backs, 2 Falcons and 2 Titans may not be a recipe for success--but hey, at least I don't have to live with the consequences.

1. Derrick Henry (Ten - RB)
2. Aaron Jones (GB - RB)
3. Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)
4. Travis Etienne (Jax - RB)
5. Kyle Pitts (Atl - TE)
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det - WR)
7. Brandon Aiyuk (SF - WR)
8. Cordarrelle Patterson (Atl - RB)
9. Hunter Renfrow (LV - WR)
10. Robert Woods (Ten - WR)
11. James Robinson (Jax - RB)
12. Jarvis Landry (NO - WR)
13. DJ Chark Jr. (Det - WR)
14. Arizona (Ari - DEF)
15. Robbie Gould (SF - K)

[weepaws 2,450]

I’m in a 12 team half ppr this season , and I hope another owners team looks this weak.  Could have done a lot better in the fifth, and the third. 

Nice. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

Willing to bet that the WR you could've taken in R3 and QB in R6 would've yielded better results than Mahomes + St. Brown.

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Willing to bet that the WR you could've taken in R3 and QB in R6 would've yielded better results than Mahomes + St. Brown.

It's been a while since I've seen a WR who spent the second half of his rookie season as a top 5 PPR WR stay in the same system with the same QB but enter his second season as a 6th-round pick.  I wasn't real excited about any of the prospects at WR left to me in the 3rd:

Round 2
(1) Assan - Leonard Fournette (TB - RB)
(2) Demetrius - Davante Adams (LV - WR)
(3) adam - Alvin Kamara (NO - RB)
(4) Yaarz - D'Andre Swift (Det - RB)
(5) Jason - Mike Evans (TB - WR)
(6) Mono - CeeDee Lamb (Dal - WR)
(7) Travis - Javonte Williams (Den - RB)
(8) Rushi Bhakta - Travis Kelce (KC - TE)
(9) Swaaa - Saquon Barkley (NYG - RB)
(10) Axe Elf - Aaron Jones (GB - RB)
(11) miles - Deebo Samuel (SF - WR)
(12) Brian - Josh Allen (Buf - QB)


Round 3
(1) Brian - Keenan Allen (LAC - WR)
(2) miles - Tyreek Hill (Mia - WR)
(3) Axe Elf - Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB)
(4) Swaaa - James Conner (Ari - RB)
(5) Rushi Bhakta - Tee Higgins (Cin - WR)
(6) Travis - Mark Andrews (Bal - TE)
(7) Mono - Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)
(8) Jason - Eli Mitchell (SF - RB)
(9) Yaarz - Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind - WR)
(10) adam - DK Metcalf (Sea - WR)
(11) Demetrius - Cam Akers (LAR - RB)
(12) Assan - Terry McLaurin (Was - WR)


Round 4
(1) Assan - Mike Williams (LAC - WR)
(2) Demetrius - Darren Waller (LV - TE)
(3) adam - Antonio Gibson (Was - RB)
(4) Yaarz - A.J. Brown (Phi - WR)
(5) Jason - David Montgomery (Chi - RB)
(6) Mono - Josh Jacobs (LV - RB)
(7) Travis - Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR)
(8) Rushi Bhakta - Courtland Sutton (Den - WR)
(9) Swaaa - Jerry Jeudy (Den - WR)
(10) Axe Elf - Travis Etienne (Jax - RB)
(11) miles - Brandin Cooks (Hou - WR)
(12) Brian - Jaylen Waddle (Mia - WR)

Tee Higgins?  Michael Pittman?  Maybe Metcalf, McLaurin or Williams...  but felt a little like reaching almost a round early for them.

In a real draft, I probably would have taken Deebo in the 2nd and feasted on some of those undervalued RBs in the 3rd, but that would have kind of defeated the purpose of flipping the WR/WR script to a RB/RB script for this mock.  It was an experiment.  And yes, as I said, I liked the results of the first experiment better.

I still think Amon-Ra St. Brown can have a solid PPR season though, if not top 5 again, simply because of all the Jamison-Crowder-like receptions he gets underneath.  And the new Lions' player most likely to make a dent in St. Brown's production would be DJ Chark--and I drafted him late too.

And if I'd waited until the 6th to get a QB, I wouldn't have had one of the most exciting young QBs the league has ever seen.  Instead, I'd be stuck with some geriatric retread like Brady.

Round 6
(1) Assan - AJ Dillon (GB - RB)
(2) Demetrius - Kyler Murray (Ari - QB)
(3) adam - Joe Burrow (Cin - QB)
(4) Yaarz - Dalton Schultz (Dal - TE)
(5) Jason - Amari Cooper (Cle - WR)
(6) Mono - Jalen Hurts (Phi - QB)
(7) Travis - Miles Sanders (Phi - RB)
(8) Rushi Bhakta - JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC - WR)
(9) Swaaa - T.J. Hockenson (Det - TE)
(10) Axe Elf - Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det - WR)
(11) miles - Rashaad Penny (Sea - RB)
(12) Brian - Marquise Brown (Ari - WR)


Round 7
(1) Brian - Dallas Goedert (Phi - TE)
(2) miles - Chris Godwin (TB - WR)
(3) Axe Elf - Brandon Aiyuk (SF - WR)
(4) Swaaa - Darnell Mooney (Chi - WR)
(5) Rushi Bhakta - Kareem Hunt (Cle - RB)
(6) Travis - Gabriel Davis (Buf - WR)
(7) Mono - Michael Thomas (NO - WR)
(8) Jason - Dawson Knox (Buf - TE)
(9) Yaarz - Tom Brady (TB - QB)
(10) adam - Pat Freiermuth (Pit - TE)
(11) Demetrius - Melvin Gordon III (Den - RB)
(12) Assan - Zach Ertz (Ari - TE)

I WAS kind of hoping that Marquise Brown had made it around the turn to me so I wouldn't have been stuck with Aiyuk, though...  ce la vie.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

Higgins I like.  I think the Bengals offense is going to be better this year than last year.  I'd also would've leaned towards Allen and Hill over Jones.  That said, I'd rather have Higgins & Brady over Mahomes and Aiyuk.  You could have kept St. Brown at 6.  I do like him.  I don't like Aiyuk at all, even less so if they run with Lance this year.  Of course, this is hindsight, as if you pick a different player, others may have went in different directions as well.  But in a vacuum, Higgins + Brady >> Mahomes + Aiyuk.

Even if Mahomes finishes higher than Brady, what are we talking... 1 point a game?  Higgins should outscore Aiyuk by at least 2 (weekly), maybe even as high as 5.

[weepaws 2,450]

Round three, Higgins, Mclaurin, Pittman, would have been better then any Qb.  And pass on Pitts in the fifth round , and pick up Schultz in the 6th if you really needed to take a te that early.  

I like Aiyuk more this season did I did last season, when his ADP was over inflated.  

[AxeElf 787]

57 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

But in a vacuum, Higgins + Brady >> Mahomes + Aiyuk.

Opinions vary.

I don't really care for either WR in that equation, but obviously I'm taking Mahomes over Brady every time.

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'd also would've leaned towards Allen and Hill over Jones.

As with Deebo, drafting any other WR in the 2nd would have foiled the RB-heavy theme I was exploring for this draft.

Based on the results of the experiment, I'm thinking that the WR-heavy theme takes better advantage of the RB talent available in the 3rd and after, and avoids that dearth of WR talent (in my mind, anyway) there in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  If you can't make yourself pick a WR early in the 1st, then at least a balanced RB/WR approach, nabbing a top WR in the 2nd, seems more attractive than the RB/RB tact.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Opinions vary.

I don't really care for either WR in that equation, but obviously I'm taking Mahomes over Brady every time.

As with Deebo, drafting any other WR in the 2nd would have foiled the RB-heavy theme I was exploring for this draft.

Based on the results of the experiment, I'm thinking that the WR-heavy theme takes better advantage of the RB talent available in the 3rd and after, and avoids that dearth of WR talent (in my mind, anyway) there in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  If you can't make yourself pick a WR early in the 1st, then at least a balanced RB/WR approach, nabbing a top WR in the 2nd, seems more attractive than the RB/RB tact.

 

That's just foolish.  From an NFL and fantasy perspective, Brady is in a way more favorable position than Mahomes.   Brady in round 7 is so much the better use of draft capital than Mahomes in the 3rd.

Yeah, I'm fine with your plan, that's why I just glossed over the Allen/Hill point and still targeted Mahomes/Aiyuk.  I can't see any way that based on value, Mahomes + Aiyuk is better than Brady + Higgins.

[AxeElf 787]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I can't see any way that based on value, Mahomes + Aiyuk is better than Brady + Higgins.

Things like that happen a lot before the season starts.

[Ray_T 587]

On 7/7/2022 at 12:42 PM, TBayXXXVII said:

Brady is in a way more favorable position than Mahomes.   Brady in round 7 is so much the better use of draft capital than Mahomes in the 3rd.

hey everyone has their own risk tolerances.

in terms of looking at the roster he drafted, Mahomes is the Only QB he took   given Brady's age, I'd feel the need to draft a second QB and that is where the mahomes pick perhaps has an advantage and hes clearly willing to pay more for that.

what this comes down to is risk tolerances.   

Brady in the 7th may be the better deal if Brady is healthy, but one of his starting WR's is coming back from surgery and his top TE wont be there (for now at least) so there is now considerable risk with that pick too.   That wouldnt stop me from taking him in round 7 but I'd probably come back in round 8 or 9 and grab another QB to hold just in case.

dude is 44 now.  how much longer can the body take the pounding of playing in the NFL?   if picking him it makes sense to take some precautions or draft a solid backup and that takes away from his value to some extent and its not something we can precisely measure.

You obviously have no issues with his age, but some do and thats fine. 

all that means is you (and others who dont think his age is an issue) get Brady at the draft table while others clearly do not.  its as it should be.

[DocNiner 44]

Really like the puck of RB Travis Etienne in the 4th. I know he's coming off a significant injury but he's got youth on his side and I honestly believe he's gonna get you more points than Aaron Jones. I like his RB1 upside. Renfrow in the 9th and Woods in the 10 should getyou solid production. Lots of mouths to feed in Detroit with Swift, Hockenson and Chark added to the mix but I still think ST. Brown continues to assert himself as WR1 for the Lions. I expect  good 2nd year production him as the Lions should be behindin games.and.having to throw the ball. Even with Swift and Hockenson to feed Amon-ra is still gonna get a fair amount of targets. Overall not a bad draft and you should be competitive.

[weepaws 2,450]

I think St Brown will be the Lions wr1 also, but he won’t produce as many ff points as he did the second half of last season because of the additions of players like Chark and Williams when he’s ready.